Hillman Solutions Corp. reports results on Monday 2 November, after the market closes. Today's growth rate sits near the top of the company's own record, with revenue over the twelve months to Q2 2026 at $1.6 billion, which rose 6.5% on the year before.
Source: reported quarterly EPS and aggregated third-party estimates. Historical surprises are context, not a forecast.
View chart data
| Period | Reported EPS | Analysts' estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Sep '25 | $0.22 | $0.20 |
| Dec '25 | $0.10 | $0.10 |
| Mar '26 | $0.07 | $0.08 |
| Jun '26 | $0.17 | $0.17 |
What analysts expect
For the quarter, the analysts' average EPS estimate is $0.20, in a range from $0.18 to $0.22, while the average revenue estimate for the quarter is $459.7 million. At the same time, the analysts' average estimate for full-year EPS is $0.58, which would be up 0.7% on last year (based on 8 analysts), and that estimate has risen 0.2% over the past 90 days. Of the analysts' recommendations, 6 are positive, 2 neutral and 0 negative.
Company guidance
In its latest earnings release, management set Full Year 2026 Net Sales guidance at $1.7 billion to $1.7 billion.
Earnings surprise model
The model estimates EPS could land above the analysts' average estimate by 1.4%, with an estimated chance of an EPS beat of 62.5% based on the last 4 quarters. The model shrinks the median recent surprise toward zero and uses a neutral prior for beat frequency; this small sample is a reference estimate, not company guidance.
Track record against estimates
The company reported EPS above the analysts' average estimate in 3 of the last 4 quarters. Last quarter, EPS of $0.17 compared with an estimate of $0.17, above it by 1.4%.
The trends going in
The trailing operating margin was 6.9%, up 0.8 percentage points from a year earlier, while the trailing net margin was 2.6%. Net income over the twelve months was $41.2 million, which rose 89.5% on the year before.
Where the cash went
The cash flow statement shows a decline, with operating cash flow over the twelve months at $125.6 million, down 18.9% on the year before. Capital spending was $64.5 million, or 4.0% of revenue, leaving free cash flow, operating cash flow less capital spending, at $61.1 million, down 14.7% on the year before. Free cash flow was 3.8% of revenue (the free-cash-flow margin), down 0.9 percentage points from a year earlier, while the average diluted share count fell 0.3% over the year.
How today compares
In the context of past results: today's free-cash-flow margin of 3.8% is higher than 47% of the company's own past quarterly readings, which have ranged from −7.6% to 11.7%. Today's operating margin of 6.9% is higher than 90% of past readings (−1.1% to 7.3%). Today's twelve-month revenue growth rate of 6.5% is above every past reading (−0.7% to 5.5%).
Questions this report will answer
Whether the pick-up in revenue growth continues, and whether results land above or below the analysts' expectations set out above. At the same time, whether margins hold at the trailing levels above. The next filing will show whether the trends above continue, slow or reverse.
What it means for our valuation
These trends feed directly into what the shares are worth in our model. In our model, growth 5 percentage points lower would lower the value by 50.6%, and 5 percentage points higher would raise it by 66.1%. A free-cash-flow margin 1 percentage point lower would lower it by 53.3%.
