Humana reports results on Friday 6 November, before the market opens. The analysts' average EPS estimate for the quarter is a loss of $1.00. The trend the report will test is whether the pick-up in revenue growth, now running at 18.3% over the trailing twelve months, holds.
Source: reported quarterly EPS and aggregated third-party estimates. Historical surprises are context, not a forecast.
View chart data
| Period | Reported EPS | Analysts' estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Sep '25 | $3.24 | $2.83 |
| Dec '25 | −$3.96 | −$3.99 |
| Mar '26 | $10.31 | $10.20 |
| Jun '26 | $7.61 | $7.00 |
What analysts expect from Humana
The analysts' average EPS estimate for the quarter is −$1.00, in a range from −$1.16 to −$0.60. The average revenue estimate is $40.9 billion. For the full year, the analysts' average EPS estimate is $9.16, down 46.6% on last year, based on 24 analysts. That figure has risen 2.3% over the past 90 days. Of the analysts' recommendations, 16 are positive, 9 neutral and 1 negative.
Company guidance
In its latest earnings release, management set FY 2026 Adjusted EPS guidance at $9.00 and GAAP EPS guidance at $6.52.
Earnings surprise model
Our model estimates EPS could land above the analysts' average by 2.5%, with an estimated 75.0% chance of a beat. These are model estimates based on the last four quarters, not company guidance. The sample is small and should be read as a reference point, not a forecast.
Humana's record against estimates
Humana reported EPS above the analysts' average estimate in all of the last four quarters. Last quarter, EPS of $7.61 compared with an estimate of $7.00, above it by 8.8%.
Growth has picked up
Revenue is growing faster, but profits and cash are shrinking. Trailing-twelve-month revenue of $145.7 billion rose 18.3% on the year before, and that growth rate was up 4.2 percentage points from a quarter earlier. Over the same period, net income fell 18.8% to $1.3 billion, and the trailing operating margin slipped to 1.9%, down 0.8 percentage points from a year earlier. The trailing net margin is 0.9%.
The cash flow picture is tighter still. Operating cash flow over twelve months was $2.5 billion, down 13.4%. Capital spending was $590.0 million, or 0.4% of revenue. Free cash flow was $1.9 billion, down 20.1%, and the free-cash-flow margin stood at 1.3%, down 0.6 percentage points from a year earlier. The average diluted share count rose 0.1% over the year.
Set against its own history, the growth rate is near the top of its range: 18.3% is higher than 95% of past quarterly readings, which have spanned from −2.6% to 19.0%. The operating margin of 1.9% is higher than only 1% of past readings (range 1.8% to 7.9%), and the free-cash-flow margin of 1.3% is higher than 26% of past readings (range −4.5% to 12.3%).
Questions this report will answer
The report will show whether the pick-up in revenue growth continues, whether results land above or below the analysts' expectations set out above, and whether margins hold at the trailing levels described here.
The value hinges on margins more than growth
In our model, growth 5 percentage points lower would lower the value by 25.8%, and growth 5 percentage points higher would raise it by 33.0%. A free-cash-flow margin 1 percentage point lower would lower it by 62.6%.
