Illinois Tool Works reports results on Tuesday 27 October, before the market opens. Revenue over the twelve months to Q2 2026 was $16.5 billion, rising 4.3% on the year before as growth speeds up.
Source: reported quarterly EPS and aggregated third-party estimates. Historical surprises are context, not a forecast.
View chart data
| Period | Reported EPS | Analysts' estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Sep '25 | $2.81 | $2.70 |
| Dec '25 | $2.72 | $2.69 |
| Mar '26 | $2.66 | $2.56 |
| Jun '26 | $2.84 | $2.80 |
What analysts expect
For the quarter, the analysts’ average EPS estimate is $2.97, ranging from $2.90 to $3.07, while the average revenue estimate stands at $4.3 billion. Looking ahead, the full-year EPS estimate averages $11.43, up 9.0% on last year based on 14 analysts. This figure has risen 0.8% over the past 90 days. Recommendations are split with 1 positive, 12 neutral and 3 negative.
Company guidance
In its latest earnings release, management set full year 2026 GAAP EPS guidance at $11.35 to $11.55.
Earnings surprise model
The model estimates EPS could land above the analysts’ average estimate by 1.3%. Based on the last 4 quarters, its estimated chance of an EPS beat is 75.0%. The model shrinks the median recent surprise toward zero and uses a neutral prior for beat frequency; this small sample is a reference estimate, not company guidance.
Track record against estimates
The company reported EPS above the analysts’ average estimate in 4 of the last 4 quarters. Last quarter, EPS of $2.84 compared with an estimate of $2.80, exceeding it by 1.5%.
The trends going in
That growth rate was up 1.4 percentage points on the rate a quarter earlier. Trailing gross margin stood at 53.0%, while trailing operating margin reached 26.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from a year earlier. The trailing net margin was 19.4%. Net income over the twelve months was $3.2 billion, falling 5.1% on the year before.
The cash picture
More cash came in than a year earlier. Operating cash flow over the twelve months was $3.3 billion, up 5.8% on the year before. Capital spending was $409.0 million, or 2.5% of revenue. Free cash flow, defined as operating cash flow less capital spending, reached $2.9 billion, up 7.2% on the year before. This represented a free-cash-flow margin of 17.7%, up 0.5 percentage points from a year earlier. The average diluted share count fell 1.9% over the year.
How today compares
In the context of past results, today’s free-cash-flow margin of 17.7% is higher than 81% of the company’s own past quarterly readings, which have ranged from 5.9% to 21.6%. Today’s operating margin of 26.5% is higher than 99% of past readings (9.7% to 26.8%). Additionally, today’s twelve-month revenue growth rate of 4.3% is higher than 68% of past readings (−21.7% to 15.4%).
Questions this report will answer
Whether the pick-up in revenue growth continues. Whether results land above or below the analysts’ expectations set out above. At the same time, whether margins hold at the trailing levels above. The next filing will show whether the trends above continue, slow or reverse.
The valuation angle
Our model translates these figures into value. In our model, growth 5 percentage points lower would lower the value by 29.5%, and 5 percentage points higher would raise it by 38.6%. A free-cash-flow margin 1 percentage point lower would lower it by 6.1%.
