Johnson Controls reports results on Tuesday 27 October, before the market opens. Revenue over the twelve months to Q3 2026 was $25.0 billion, which rose 6.8% on the year before.
Source: reported quarterly EPS and aggregated third-party estimates. Historical surprises are context, not a forecast.
View chart data
| Period | Reported EPS | Analysts' estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Sep '25 | $1.26 | $1.20 |
| Dec '25 | $0.89 | $0.84 |
| Mar '26 | $1.19 | $1.12 |
| Jun '26 | $1.42 | $1.30 |
What analysts expect
Analysts have been raising their forecasts going into the report. For the quarter, the average EPS estimate is $1.58, in a range from $1.55 to $1.65, while the average revenue estimate stands at $7.0 billion. Meanwhile, the average full-year EPS estimate is $5.07 (based on 20 analysts), which would be up 34.9% on last year and has risen 3.4% over the past 90 days. Of the recommendations, 12 are positive, 8 neutral and 2 negative.
Company guidance
In its latest earnings release, management set fiscal 2026 fourth quarter Adjusted EPS guidance at $1.55 and full year Adjusted EPS guidance at $5.05.
Earnings surprise model
The model estimates EPS could land above the analysts’ average estimate by 3.0%, with an estimated chance of a beat of 75.0% based on the last 4 quarters. It shrinks the median recent surprise toward zero and uses a neutral prior for beat frequency; this small sample is a reference estimate, not company guidance.
Track record against estimates
The company reported EPS above the analysts’ average estimate in 4 of the last 4 quarters. Last quarter, EPS of $1.42 compared with an estimate of $1.30, above it by 9.0%.
The trends going in
Growth is speeding up, with the rate up 1.7 percentage points on the rate a quarter earlier. The trailing gross margin was 36.7%, while the trailing net margin was 14.3%. Net income over the twelve months was $3.6 billion, which rose 60.4% on the year before.
Cash flow
Today’s cash margin sits near the top of the company’s own record. Operating cash flow over the twelve months was $3.5 billion, up 37.1% on the year before, while capital spending was $373.0 million, or 1.5% of revenue. Free cash flow, operating cash flow less capital spending, was $3.2 billion, up 52.0% on the year before. The free-cash-flow margin was 12.7% of revenue, up 3.8 percentage points from a year earlier, as the average diluted share count fell 6.8% over the year.
Against its own history
Set against the company’s own record: today’s free-cash-flow margin of 12.7% is higher than 99% of past quarterly readings, which have ranged from −6.1% to 14.9%. Today’s twelve-month revenue growth rate of 6.8% is higher than 72% of past readings (−43.0% to 110.4%).
Questions this report will answer
Whether the pick-up in revenue growth continues, and whether results land above or below the analysts’ expectations set out above. Whether margins hold at the trailing levels above. The next filing will show whether the trends above continue, slow or reverse.
The valuation angle
Our model translates these figures into value. In our model, growth 5 percentage points lower would lower the value by 28.6%, and 5 percentage points higher would raise it by 37.3%. A free-cash-flow margin 1 percentage point lower would lower it by 9.1%.
