Keurig Dr Pepper reports results on Tuesday 3 November, before the market opens. The analysts' average EPS estimate for the quarter is $0.62. The report will test whether the acceleration in revenue growth, twelve-month revenue stood at $20.1 billion, up 27.5%, continues into the next quarter.
Source: reported quarterly EPS and aggregated third-party estimates. Historical surprises are context, not a forecast.
View chart data
| Period | Reported EPS | Analysts' estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Sep '25 | $0.54 | $0.54 |
| Dec '25 | $0.60 | $0.59 |
| Mar '26 | $0.39 | $0.37 |
| Jun '26 | $0.57 | $0.54 |
What analysts expect from Keurig Dr Pepper
The analysts' average revenue estimate for the quarter is $7.3 billion. For the full year, the average EPS estimate is $2.29, up 11.8% on last year, based on 17 analysts. That full-year estimate has risen 0.2% over the past 90 days. Among recommendations, 13 are positive, 5 neutral and 0 negative.
Company guidance
In its latest earnings release, management set 2026 net sales guidance at $25.9 billion to $26.4 billion.
Earnings surprise model
Our model estimates EPS could land above the analysts' average estimate by 1.5%. The estimated chance of an EPS beat is 75.0%, based on the last 4 quarters. The model shrinks the median recent surprise toward zero and uses a neutral prior for beat frequency; this small sample is a reference estimate, not company guidance.
Keurig Dr Pepper's record against estimates
The company reported EPS above the analysts' average estimate in 4 of the last 4 quarters. Last quarter, EPS of $0.57 compared with an estimate of $0.54, above it by 6.2%.
Growth has picked up
Revenue growth is accelerating: the trailing-twelve-month growth rate rose 18.3 percentage points from the rate a quarter earlier. Margins are under pressure at the operating level, trailing operating margin is 16.2%, down 0.7 percentage points from a year earlier, while trailing gross margin is 49.4% and trailing net margin is 7.1%. Net income over the twelve months was $1.4 billion, down 7.1% on the year before. Cash flow is the area where the figures point in the other direction: operating cash flow over the twelve months was $2.5 billion, up 19.4%, and free cash flow, operating cash flow less capital spending of $562.0 million, or 2.8% of revenue, was $2.0 billion, up 24.8%. The free-cash-flow margin is 9.8%, down 0.2 percentage points from a year earlier. The average diluted share count rose 0.1% over the year.
Against its own history, the current picture is unusual. Today's revenue growth rate of 27.5% is higher than 90% of past readings, which have ranged from −33.4% to 158.2%. Today's free-cash-flow margin of 9.8% is higher than 20% of past quarterly readings (2.7% to 43.0%). Today's operating margin of 16.2% is higher than only 3% of past readings (15.5% to 25.0%).
Questions this report will answer
The report will show whether the pick-up in revenue growth continues, whether results land above or below the analysts' expectations set out above, and whether margins hold at the trailing levels described.
The value hinges on margins more than growth
In our model, growth 5 percentage points lower would lower the value by 37.6%, and growth 5 percentage points higher would raise it by 48.0%. A free-cash-flow margin 1 percentage point lower would lower the value by 16.1%.
