Mattel Inc reports results on Thursday 5 November, after the market closes. Revenue over the twelve months to Q2 2026 was $5.5 billion, up 2.9% on the year before. The report will test whether that growth pace continues and whether margins remain at their current levels.
Source: reported quarterly EPS and aggregated third-party estimates. Historical surprises are context, not a forecast.
View chart data
| Period | Reported EPS | Analysts' estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Sep '25 | $0.89 | $1.06 |
| Dec '25 | $0.39 | $0.55 |
| Mar '26 | −$0.20 | −$0.21 |
| Jun '26 | $0.01 | $0.04 |
What analysts expect from Mattel
The analysts' average EPS estimate for the quarter is $0.94, in a range from $0.77 to $1.12. The average revenue estimate is $1.8 billion. For the full year, the analysts' average EPS estimate is $1.30, down 8.0% on last year. That estimate is based on 13 analysts and has fallen 2.4% over the past 90 days. Of the recommendations on file, 10 are positive, 3 neutral and 2 negative.
Company guidance
In its latest earnings release, management set full year 2026 Adjusted EPS guidance at $1.27 to $1.39.
Earnings surprise model
Our model estimates EPS could land below the analysts' average estimate by 11.2%. The estimated chance of an EPS beat is 37.5%, based on the last 4 quarters. The model shrinks the median recent surprise toward zero and uses a neutral prior for beat frequency; this small sample is a reference estimate, not company guidance.
Mattel's record against estimates
Mattel reported EPS above the analysts' average estimate in 1 of the last 4 quarters. Last quarter, EPS of $0.01 compared with an estimate of $0.04, below it by 77.3%.
Profit is lagging sales
Revenue growth accelerated: the trailing rate of 2.9% is up 3.1 percentage points on the rate a quarter earlier. The trailing gross margin is 47.5%. The trailing operating margin is 7.8%, down 4.8 percentage points from a year earlier, and the trailing net margin is the same 7.8%. Net income over the twelve months was $427.4 million, which fell 18.8% on the year before.
Operating cash flow over the twelve months was $666.4 million, down 10.3% on the year before. Capital spending was $153.8 million, or 2.8% of revenue. Free cash flow was $512.6 million, down 13.9%. The free-cash-flow margin was 9.3%, down 1.8 percentage points from a year earlier. The average diluted share count fell 8.3% over the year.
Against its own history, the free-cash-flow margin of 9.3% is higher than 51% of past quarterly readings, which have ranged from −3.2% to 19.0%. The operating margin of 7.8% is higher than 28% of past readings, which have ranged from −13.3% to 18.1%. The revenue growth rate of 2.9% is higher than 71% of past readings, which have ranged from −13.3% to 20.6%.
Questions this report will answer
The report will answer three questions: whether the pick-up in revenue growth continues, whether results land above or below the analysts' expectations set out above, and whether margins remain at the trailing levels described here.
The value hinges on margins more than growth
In our model, growth 5 percentage points lower would lower the value by 30.3%, and growth 5 percentage points higher would raise it by 39.8%. A free-cash-flow margin 1 percentage point lower would lower the value by 10.8%.
