Moderna reports results on Friday 6 November, before the market opens. Revenue over the twelve months to Q2 2026 was $2.2 billion, which fell 27.6% on the year before.
Source: reported quarterly EPS and aggregated third-party estimates. Historical surprises are context, not a forecast.
View chart data
| Period | Reported EPS | Analysts' estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Sep '25 | −$0.51 | −$2.18 |
| Dec '25 | −$2.11 | −$2.60 |
| Mar '26 | −$3.40 | −$3.88 |
| Jun '26 | −$1.97 | −$2.06 |
What analysts expect from Moderna
For the quarter, the analysts' average EPS estimate is −$1.35, in a range from −$3.28 to −$0.80. The average revenue estimate for the quarter is $891.3 million. Alongside that, the analysts' average estimate for full-year EPS is −$8.49, which would be down 17.0% on last year (based on 19 analysts). Of the analysts' recommendations, 4 are positive, 16 neutral and 3 negative.
Earnings surprise model
The model estimates EPS could land above the analysts' average estimate by 7.8%. Its estimated chance of an EPS beat is 75.0%, based on the last 4 quarters. The model shrinks the median recent surprise toward zero and uses a neutral prior for beat frequency; this small sample is a reference estimate, not company guidance.
Track record against estimates
The company reported EPS above the analysts' average estimate in 4 of the last 4 quarters. Last quarter, EPS of −$1.97 compared with an estimate of −$2.06, above it by 4.3%.
The trends Moderna takes into its report
That growth rate was up 2.4 percentage points on the rate a quarter earlier. The trailing gross margin was 23.4%. The trailing operating margin was negative, at −149.0%, down 42.7 percentage points from a year earlier. The trailing net margin was negative, at −141.4%. The company made a net loss of $3.2 billion over the twelve months.
Where the cash went
Operating cash flow over the twelve months was −$1.1 billion. Capital spending was $171.0 million, or 7.7% of revenue. At the same time, free cash flow, operating cash flow less capital spending, was −$1.2 billion. Free cash flow was −55.8% of revenue (the free-cash-flow margin), up 57.6 percentage points from a year earlier. The average diluted share count rose 2.0% over the year.
Where Moderna's figures sit in its own record
Measured against its own history: today's free-cash-flow margin of −55.8% is higher than 57% of the company's own past quarterly readings, which have ranged from −864.5% to 249.1%. Today's operating margin of −149.0% is higher than 44% of past readings (−1027.2% to 72.0%). Today's twelve-month revenue growth rate of −27.6% is higher than 57% of past readings (−65.8% to 6515.4%).
Questions this report will answer
Whether the pick-up in revenue growth continues. Whether results land above or below the analysts' expectations set out above. Alongside that, Whether margins hold at the trailing levels above. The next filing will show whether the trends above continue, slow or reverse.
