Paccar reports results on Tuesday 27 October, before the market opens. Revenue over the twelve months to Q2 2026 was $27.8 billion, which fell 10.6% on the year before.
Source: reported quarterly EPS and aggregated third-party estimates. Historical surprises are context, not a forecast.
View chart data
| Period | Reported EPS | Analysts' estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Sep '25 | $1.12 | $1.15 |
| Dec '25 | $1.06 | $1.05 |
| Mar '26 | $1.15 | $1.16 |
| Jun '26 | $1.43 | $1.36 |
What analysts expect
Analysts have been raising their forecasts going into the report. For the quarter, the analysts’ average EPS estimate is $1.50. The average revenue estimate for the quarter is $7.5 billion. Meanwhile, the analysts’ average estimate for full-year EPS is $5.95, which would be up 32.0% on last year (based on 16 analysts). That estimate has risen 3.9% over the past 90 days. Of the analysts’ recommendations, 9 are positive, 10 neutral and 0 negative.
Earnings surprise model
The model estimates EPS could land below the analysts’ average estimate by 0.1%. Its estimated chance of an EPS beat is 50.0%, based on the last 4 quarters. The model shrinks the median recent surprise toward zero and uses a neutral prior for beat frequency; this small sample is a reference estimate, not company guidance.
Track record against estimates
The company reported EPS above the analysts’ average estimate in 2 of the last 4 quarters. Last quarter, EPS of $1.43 compared with an estimate of $1.36, above it by 5.4%.
The trends going in
Profit and cash are telling different stories: cash flow rose while earnings fell. That growth rate was up 3.6 percentage points on the rate a quarter earlier. The trailing gross margin was 20.0%. At the same time, the trailing net margin was 9.0%. Net income over the twelve months was $2.5 billion, which fell 18.5% on the year before.
Cash flow
Cash generation improved. Operating cash flow over the twelve months was $4.3 billion, down 2.9% on the year before. Capital spending was $648.4 million, or 2.3% of revenue. Free cash flow, operating cash flow less capital spending, was $3.7 billion, up 1.0% on the year before. Free cash flow was 13.3% of revenue (the free-cash-flow margin), up 1.5 percentage points from a year earlier. The average diluted share count rose 0.1% over the year.
How today compares
In the context of past results: today’s free-cash-flow margin of 13.3% is higher than 85% of the company’s own past quarterly readings, which have ranged from 4.4% to 18.1%. Today’s twelve-month revenue growth rate of −10.6% is higher than 18% of past readings (−26.8% to 58.9%).
Questions this report will answer
Whether the pick-up in revenue growth continues. Whether results land above or below the analysts’ expectations set out above. At the same time, Whether margins hold at the trailing levels above. The next filing will show whether the trends above continue, slow or reverse.
The valuation angle
Our model translates these figures into value. In our model, growth 5 percentage points lower would lower the value by 25.2%, and 5 percentage points higher would raise it by 33.2%. A free-cash-flow margin 1 percentage point lower would lower it by 7.5%.
