Qualcomm reports results on Wednesday 4 November, after the market closes. The analysts' average EPS estimate for the quarter is $2.16, and the average revenue estimate is $10.1 billion. The report will test whether the slowdown in revenue growth continues: trailing-twelve-month revenue of $44.1 billion rose 1.9% on the year before.
Source: reported quarterly EPS and aggregated third-party estimates. Historical surprises are context, not a forecast.
View chart data
| Period | Reported EPS | Analysts' estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Sep '25 | $3.00 | $2.88 |
| Dec '25 | $3.50 | $3.40 |
| Mar '26 | $2.65 | $2.56 |
| Jun '26 | $2.21 | $2.23 |
What analysts expect from Qualcomm
For the quarter, the analysts' average EPS estimate is $2.16, in a range from $2.09 to $2.24. The average revenue estimate is $10.1 billion. For the full year, the average EPS estimate is $10.48, down 12.8% on last year, based on 30 analysts. That estimate has fallen 3.0% over the past 90 days. Of the analysts' recommendations, 11 are positive, 23 neutral and 3 negative.
Company guidance
In its latest earnings release, management set Q4 FY26 Estimates GAAP diluted EPS guidance at $1.22 to $1.42. Non-GAAP diluted EPS guidance was $2.05 to $2.25. Revenue guidance was $9.7 billion to $10.5 billion.
Earnings surprise model
The model estimates EPS could land above the analysts' average estimate by 1.6%. Its estimated chance of an EPS beat is 62.5%, based on the last 4 quarters. The model shrinks the median recent surprise toward zero and uses a neutral prior for beat frequency; this small sample is a reference estimate, not company guidance.
Qualcomm's record against estimates
The company reported EPS above the analysts' average estimate in 3 of the last 4 quarters. Last quarter, EPS of $2.21 compared with an estimate of $2.23, below it by 0.7%.
Profit is lagging sales
Revenue growth is decelerating and margins are compressing. The trailing-twelve-month revenue growth rate of 1.9% was down 3.3 percentage points on the rate a quarter earlier. The trailing gross margin was 54.2%. The trailing operating margin was 23.2%, down 4.6 percentage points from a year earlier. The trailing net margin was 21.0%. Net income over the twelve months was $9.3 billion, which fell 20.0% on the year before.
Cash generation is declining more slowly than profits. Operating cash flow over the twelve months was $12.4 billion, down 2.1% on the year before. Capital spending was $2.0 billion, or 4.5% of revenue. Free cash flow, operating cash flow less capital spending, was $10.4 billion, down 10.4% on the year before. The free-cash-flow margin was 23.6%, down 3.2 percentage points from a year earlier. The average diluted share count fell 3.6% over the year.
Against its own history, these margins sit in the lower part of the range. The free-cash-flow margin of 23.6% is higher than 34% of past quarterly readings, which have ranged from 8.4% to 61.6%. The operating margin of 23.2% is higher than 22% of past readings (2.7% to 35.9%). The twelve-month revenue growth rate of 1.9% is higher than 37% of past readings (−20.8% to 62.9%).
Questions this report will answer
This report will answer whether the slowdown in revenue growth continues, whether results land above or below the analysts' expectations set out above, and whether margins hold at the trailing levels above.
What Qualcomm's share price implies against our model
In our model, growth 5 percentage points lower would lower the value by 25.9%, and growth 5 percentage points higher would raise it by 34.0%. A free-cash-flow margin 1 percentage point lower would lower it by 4.1%.
