Seagate Technology reports results on Tuesday 27 October, after the market closes. The business is getting more profitable as it grows. Revenue over the twelve months to Q4 2026 was $12.2 billion, which rose 34.1% on the year before.
Source: reported quarterly EPS and aggregated third-party estimates. Historical surprises are context, not a forecast.
View chart data
| Period | Reported EPS | Analysts' estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Sep '25 | $2.61 | $2.40 |
| Dec '25 | $3.11 | $2.84 |
| Mar '26 | $4.10 | $3.51 |
| Jun '26 | $5.71 | $5.09 |
What analysts expect
Analysts have been raising their forecasts going into the report. For the quarter, the analysts’ average EPS estimate is $7.40, in a range from $7.29 to $7.83. The average revenue estimate for the quarter is $4.1 billion. Meanwhile, the analysts’ average estimate for full-year EPS is $36.66, which would be up 135.3% on last year (based on 24 analysts). That estimate has risen 28.3% over the past 90 days. Of the analysts’ recommendations, 23 are positive, 3 neutral and 0 negative.
Company guidance
In its latest earnings release, management set fiscal first quarter 2027 Non-GAAP diluted EPS guidance at $7.30. In its latest earnings release, management set fiscal first quarter 2027 Revenue guidance at $4.1 billion.
Earnings surprise model
The model estimates EPS could land above the analysts’ average estimate by 5.4%. Its estimated chance of an EPS beat is 75.0%, based on the last 4 quarters. The model shrinks the median recent surprise toward zero and uses a neutral prior for beat frequency; this small sample is a reference estimate, not company guidance.
Track record against estimates
The company reported EPS above the analysts’ average estimate in 4 of the last 4 quarters. Last quarter, EPS of $5.71 compared with an estimate of $5.09, above it by 12.1%.
The trends going in
Profit and cash are telling different stories: cash flow grew far faster. The trailing gross margin was 45.6%. The trailing operating margin was 33.6%, up 12.8 percentage points from a year earlier. The trailing net margin was 26.1%. Net income over the twelve months was $3.2 billion, which rose 116.7% on the year before.
The cash picture
Today’s cash margin sits near the top of the company’s own record. Operating cash flow over the twelve months was $3.7 billion, up 239.2% on the year before. Capital spending was $569.0 million, or 4.7% of revenue. Free cash flow, operating cash flow less capital spending, was $3.1 billion, up 279.6% on the year before. Free cash flow was 25.5% of revenue (the free-cash-flow margin), up 16.5 percentage points from a year earlier. The average diluted share count rose 5.5% over the year.
Against its own history
Set against the company’s own record: today’s free-cash-flow margin of 25.5% is above every one of the company’s own past quarterly readings, which have ranged from 3.0% to 22.4%. Today’s operating margin of 33.6% is above every past reading (−8.5% to 28.2%). Today’s twelve-month revenue growth rate of 34.1% is higher than 92% of past readings (−36.7% to 43.1%).
Questions this report will answer
Whether the pick-up in revenue growth continues. Whether results land above or below the analysts’ expectations set out above. At the same time, Whether margins hold at the trailing levels above. The next filing will show whether the trends above continue, slow or reverse.
The valuation angle
Our model translates these figures into value. In our model, growth 5 percentage points lower would lower the value by 24.1%, and 5 percentage points higher would raise it by 30.8%. A free-cash-flow margin 1 percentage point lower would lower it by 3.7%.
