Shake Shack Inc. reports its third-quarter results on Thursday 5 November, before the market opens. Revenue over the twelve months to Q2 2026 reached $1.6 billion, up 17.3% on the year before, and the growth rate accelerated by 1.1 percentage points from a quarter earlier. Thursday's report will test whether that acceleration continues.
Source: reported quarterly EPS and aggregated third-party estimates. Historical surprises are context, not a forecast.
View chart data
| Period | Reported EPS | Analysts' estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Sep '25 | $0.36 | $0.31 |
| Dec '25 | $0.37 | $0.35 |
| Mar '26 | $0.00 | $0.12 |
| Jun '26 | $0.43 | $0.30 |
What analysts expect from Shake Shack
For the quarter, the analysts' average EPS estimate is $0.34, in a range from $0.30 to $0.40, and the average revenue estimate is $426.7 million. The full-year EPS estimate stands at $1.13, which would be down 14.6% on last year; that figure is based on 24 analysts. Over the past 90 days the estimate has risen 1.0%. Among recommendations, 15 are positive, 12 neutral and 1 negative.
Earnings surprise model
Our model estimates EPS could land above the analysts' average estimate by 5.8%. The estimated chance of an EPS beat is 62.5%, based on the last 4 quarters. The model shrinks the median recent surprise toward zero and uses a neutral prior for beat frequency; this small sample is a reference estimate, not company guidance.
Shake Shack's record against estimates
The company reported EPS above the analysts' average estimate in 3 of the last 4 quarters. Last quarter, EPS of $0.43 compared with an estimate of $0.30, above it by 41.7%.
Profit is outgrowing sales
Revenue growth of 17.3% is accelerating; the rate was up 1.1 percentage points from a quarter earlier. Trailing operating margin is 3.6%, up 2.3 percentage points from a year earlier, and trailing net margin is 2.6%. Net income over the twelve months was $39.7 million, up 99.7% on the year before.
The profit gains have not yet produced positive cash. Operating cash flow over the twelve months was $191.6 million, up 4.6% on the year before, but capital spending of $203.3 million, 13.1% of revenue, exceeded it. Free cash flow was negative $11.7 million, or −0.8% of revenue, down 4.2 percentage points from a year earlier. The average diluted share count fell 6.7% over the year.
Against its own history, the free-cash-flow margin of −0.8% sits above 52% of past quarterly readings, which range from −13.6% to 4.8%. The operating margin of 3.6% is higher than 59% of past readings (−9.9% to 11.2%). The revenue growth rate of 17.3% is higher than only 29% of past readings (−12.1% to 60.8%).
Questions this report will answer
Whether the pick-up in revenue growth continues, whether results land above or below the analysts' expectations set out above, and whether margins hold at the trailing levels reported here.
