Shopify reports on Tuesday 3 November, before the market opens. The analysts' average EPS estimate for the quarter is $0.46 and the average revenue estimate is $3.7 billion. The report will test whether the company's revenue growth, which accelerated in the most recent quarter, continues at that pace.
Source: reported quarterly EPS and aggregated third-party estimates. Historical surprises are context, not a forecast.
View chart data
| Period | Reported EPS | Analysts' estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Sep '25 | $0.34 | $0.34 |
| Dec '25 | $0.48 | $0.51 |
| Mar '26 | $0.36 | $0.33 |
| Jun '26 | $0.42 | $0.40 |
What analysts expect from Shopify
The analysts' average EPS estimate for the quarter is $0.46, in a range from $0.39 to $0.52. The average revenue estimate is $3.7 billion. For the full year, the analysts' average EPS estimate is $1.91, which would be up 33.7% on last year, based on 48 analysts. That estimate has risen 3.6% over the past 90 days. Of the analysts' recommendations, 41 are positive, 12 neutral and 1 negative.
Earnings surprise model
The model estimates EPS could land above the analysts' average estimate by 1.4%. Its estimated chance of an EPS beat is 62.5%, based on the last 4 quarters. The model shrinks the median recent surprise toward zero and uses a neutral prior for beat frequency; this small sample is a reference estimate, not company guidance.
Shopify's record against estimates
Shopify reported EPS above the analysts' average estimate in 3 of the last 4 quarters. Last quarter, EPS of $0.42 compared with an estimate of $0.40, above it by 5.1%.
Profit is lagging sales
Revenue growth is accelerating. Revenue over the twelve months to Q2 2026 was $13.3 billion, up 32.5% on the year before, and that growth rate was up 0.7 percentage points on the rate a quarter earlier. Operating margin moved in the same direction: the trailing operating margin was 13.9%, up 1.5 percentage points from a year earlier. Yet net income over the same twelve months was $1.9 billion, which fell 17.8% on the year before. The trailing gross margin was 47.8% and the trailing net margin was 14.5%.
Cash flow tracked revenue closely. Operating cash flow over the twelve months was $2.4 billion, up 29.7% on the year before. Capital spending was $25.0 million, or 0.2% of revenue, so free cash flow of $2.4 billion rose 29.4% on the year before. The free-cash-flow margin was 17.7%, down 0.4 percentage points from a year earlier. The average diluted share count fell 0.1% over the year.
Questions this report will answer
The report will answer whether the pick-up in revenue growth continues, whether results land above or below the analysts' expectations set out above, and whether margins hold at the trailing levels described in this article.
What Shopify's share price implies against our model
Our model is most sensitive to the growth assumption. In our model, growth 5 percentage points lower would lower the value by 22.7%, and growth 5 percentage points higher would raise it by 29.1%. A free-cash-flow margin 1 percentage point lower would lower it by 5.4%.
