TKO Group Holdings reports results on Wednesday 4 November, after the market closes. Revenue over the twelve months to Q2 2026 was $5.3 billion, up 5.1% on the year before. The upcoming report will test whether that growth acceleration holds.
Source: reported quarterly EPS and aggregated third-party estimates. Historical surprises are context, not a forecast.
View chart data
| Period | Reported EPS | Analysts' estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Sep '25 | $0.47 | $0.51 |
| Dec '25 | −$0.03 | $0.22 |
| Mar '26 | $1.12 | $1.14 |
| Jun '26 | $1.34 | $1.09 |
What analysts expect from TKO Group
The analysts' average EPS estimate for the quarter is $0.83, in a range from $0.83 to $0.83. The average revenue estimate for the quarter is $1.4 billion. For the full year, the analysts' average EPS estimate is $4.44, up 96.5% on last year, based on 19 analysts. That estimate has risen 13.9% over the past 90 days. Of the analysts' recommendations, 19 are positive, 3 are neutral and 0 are negative.
Company guidance
In its latest earnings release, management set full year 2026 revenue guidance at $5.8 billion to $5.8 billion.
Earnings surprise model
Our model estimates EPS could land below the analysts' average estimate by 2.4%. The model's estimated chance of an EPS beat is 37.5%, based on the last 4 quarters. The model shrinks the median recent surprise toward zero and uses a neutral prior for beat frequency. This small sample is a reference estimate, not company guidance.
TKO Group's record against estimates
TKO reported EPS above the analysts' average estimate in 1 of the last 4 quarters. Last quarter, EPS of $1.34 compared with an estimate of $1.09, above it by 23.3%.
Growth has picked up
Revenue growth is accelerating: the growth rate was up 2.4 percentage points on the rate a quarter earlier. Margins are rising with it. The trailing operating margin was 18.8%, up 5.0 percentage points from a year earlier, while the trailing net margin was 4.3%. Net income over the twelve months was $229.6 million, up 8.8% on the year before.
Cash flow has grown well ahead of revenue. Operating cash flow over the twelve months was $1.8 billion, up 126.3% on the year before, while revenue grew 5.1%. Capital spending was $527.4 million, or 9.9% of revenue. Free cash flow, operating cash flow less capital spending, was $1.3 billion, up 236.9% on the year before. The free-cash-flow margin was 23.9% of revenue, up 16.5 percentage points from a year earlier.
Set against the company's own history, the free-cash-flow margin of 23.9% is higher than 91% of past quarterly readings, which have ranged from −2.2% to 25.5%. The operating margin of 18.8% is higher than 83% of past readings (−0.5% to 47.3%). The twelve-month revenue growth rate of 5.1% is higher than 50% of past readings (−24.4% to 359.2%).
Questions this report will answer
The report will answer three questions: whether the pick-up in revenue growth continues, whether results land above or below the analysts' expectations set out above, and whether margins hold at the trailing levels described.
What TKO Group's share price implies against our model
In our model, growth 5 percentage points lower would lower the value by 29.1%, and growth 5 percentage points higher would raise it by 38.1%. A free-cash-flow margin 1 percentage point lower would lower it by 4.2%.
