TransDigm Group reports results on Thursday 5 November, before the market opens. Revenue over the twelve months to Q3 2026 was $10.0 billion, up 16.6% on the year before, and that growth rate was up 3.4 percentage points on the rate a quarter earlier. The report will test whether that pick-up in revenue growth continues and whether margins hold at their current levels.
Source: reported quarterly EPS and aggregated third-party estimates. Historical surprises are context, not a forecast.
View chart data
| Period | Reported EPS | Analysts' estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Sep '25 | $10.82 | $10.05 |
| Dec '25 | $8.23 | $8.04 |
| Mar '26 | $9.85 | $9.71 |
| Jun '26 | $10.87 | $10.28 |
What analysts expect from TransDigm
For the quarter, the analysts' average EPS estimate is $12.21, in a range from $11.81 to $12.58. The average revenue estimate is $2.9 billion. For the full year, the analysts' average EPS estimate is $41.28, up 10.6% on last year, based on 20 analysts. That estimate has risen 3.1% over the past 90 days. Of the analysts' recommendations, 12 are positive, 11 neutral and 0 negative.
Company guidance
In its latest earnings release, management set fiscal 2026 Adjusted earnings per share guidance at $40.62 to $41.46. Earnings per share guidance is $35.38 to $36.21. Net sales guidance is $10.5 billion to $10.6 billion.
Earnings surprise model
Our model estimates EPS could land above the analysts' average estimate by 2.0%. Its estimated chance of an EPS beat is 75.0%, based on the last 4 quarters. The model shrinks the median recent surprise toward zero and uses a neutral prior for beat frequency; this small sample is a reference estimate, not company guidance.
TransDigm's record against estimates
The company reported EPS above the analysts' average estimate in 4 of the last 4 quarters. Last quarter, EPS of $10.87 compared with an estimate of $10.28, above it by 5.7%.
Reported profit is holding up better than cash
Revenue growth is rising: the twelve-month growth rate of 16.6% was up 3.4 percentage points on the rate a quarter earlier. The trailing gross margin is 59.6%, the operating margin is 46.0% (up 0.0 percentage points from a year earlier), and the net margin is 21.3%. Net income over the twelve months is $2.1 billion, up 10.2% on the year before.
Operating cash flow over the twelve months is $2.2 billion, up 4.5% on the year before. Capital spending is $271.0 million, or 2.7% of revenue. Free cash flow is $1.9 billion, up 1.1% on the year before. The free-cash-flow margin is 19.3%, down 3.0 percentage points from a year earlier. The average diluted share count fell 0.1% over the year.
Set against its own history, the free-cash-flow margin of 19.3% is higher than 31% of past quarterly readings, which have ranged from 15.3% to 26.1%. The operating margin of 46.0% is higher than 95% of past readings (29.1% to 47.2%). The twelve-month revenue growth rate of 16.6% is higher than 52% of past readings (−24.7% to 51.1%).
Questions this report will answer
The report will show whether the pick-up in revenue growth continues, whether results land above or below the analysts' expectations set out above, and whether margins hold at the trailing levels.
What TransDigm's share price implies against our model
In our model, growth 5 percentage points lower would lower the value by 41.3%, and growth 5 percentage points higher would raise it by 53.0%. A free-cash-flow margin 1 percentage point lower would lower it by 8.9%.
