Ventas reports results on Tuesday 27 October, after the market closes. Today’s growth rate sits near the top of the company’s own record. Revenue over the twelve months to Q2 2026 was $6.4 billion, which rose 21.5% on the year before.

What analysts expect

Analysts have been cutting their forecasts going into the report. For the quarter, the analysts’ average EPS estimate is $0.11, in a range from $0.09 to $0.13. The average revenue estimate for the quarter is $1.8 billion. Alongside that, the analysts’ average estimate for full-year EPS is $0.44, which would be down 2.5% on last year (based on 22 analysts). That estimate has fallen 17.8% over the past 90 days. Of the analysts’ recommendations, 18 are positive, 5 neutral and 0 negative.

Company guidance

In its latest earnings release, management set full year 2026 Attributable Net Income Per Share Range guidance at $0.58 to $0.63.

Earnings surprise model

The model estimates EPS could land above the analysts’ average estimate by 23.2%. Its estimated chance of an EPS beat is 62.5%, based on the last 4 quarters. The model shrinks the median recent surprise toward zero and uses a neutral prior for beat frequency; this small sample is a reference estimate, not company guidance.

Track record against estimates

The company reported EPS above the analysts’ average estimate in 3 of the last 4 quarters. Last quarter, EPS of $0.17 compared with an estimate of $0.11, above it by 51.7%.

That growth rate was up 0.8 percentage points on the rate a quarter earlier. The trailing net margin was 4.1%. Net income over the twelve months was $262.7 million, which rose 37.4% on the year before.

Cash flow

The share count is rising, so each share claims a smaller slice of the profit. Operating cash flow over the twelve months was $1.8 billion, up 18.2% on the year before. Capital spending, estimated from depreciation because the company no longer reports it in a standard form, was about $1.5 billion. Meanwhile, free cash flow, operating cash flow less that estimate, was about $301.3 million. The average diluted share count rose 10.1% over the year.

Against its own history

Set against the company’s own record: today’s free-cash-flow margin of 4.7% is higher than 40% of the company’s own past quarterly readings, which have ranged from −27.4% to 55.3%. Today’s twelve-month revenue growth rate of 21.5% is higher than 89% of past readings (−6.7% to 99.3%).

Questions this report will answer

Whether the pick-up in revenue growth continues. Whether results land above or below the analysts’ expectations set out above. At the same time, Whether margins hold at the trailing levels above. The next filing will show whether the trends above continue, slow or reverse.

What it means for value

For valuation, the figures matter through our model. In our model, growth 5 percentage points lower would lower the value by 36.5%, and 5 percentage points higher would raise it by 46.7%. A free-cash-flow margin 1 percentage point lower would lower it by 12.4%.