Waste Management reports results on Tuesday 27 October, after the market closes. Sales are still rising, just more slowly than before. Revenue over the twelve months to Q2 2026 was $25.7 billion, which rose 7.2% on the year before.
What analysts expect
For the quarter, the analysts’ average EPS estimate is $2.18, in a range from $2.08 to $2.35. The average revenue estimate for the quarter is $6.8 billion. Meanwhile, the analysts’ average estimate for full-year EPS is $8.14, which would be up 8.5% on last year (based on 25 analysts). That estimate has fallen 0.4% over the past 90 days. Of the analysts’ recommendations, 19 are positive, 9 neutral and 0 negative.
Company guidance
In its latest earnings release, management set 2026 Revenue guidance at $26.3 billion to $26.5 billion.
Earnings surprise model
The model estimates EPS could land above the analysts’ average estimate by 0.3%. Its estimated chance of an EPS beat is 50.0%, based on the last 4 quarters. The model shrinks the median recent surprise toward zero and uses a neutral prior for beat frequency; this small sample is a reference estimate, not company guidance.
Track record against estimates
The company reported EPS above the analysts’ average estimate in 2 of the last 4 quarters. Last quarter, EPS of $2.02 compared with an estimate of $1.98, above it by 2.1%.
The trends going in
Profit and cash are telling different stories: cash flow grew far faster. That growth rate was down 3.7 percentage points on the rate a quarter earlier. The trailing gross margin was 40.9%. The trailing operating margin was 17.6%, up 0.0 percentage points from a year earlier. The trailing net margin was 11.1%. Net income over the twelve months was $2.9 billion, which rose 4.9% on the year before.
Cash flow
Today’s cash margin sits near the top of the company’s own record. Operating cash flow over the twelve months was $6.5 billion, up 15.9% on the year before. Capital spending was $2.9 billion, or 11.5% of revenue. Free cash flow, operating cash flow less capital spending, was $3.6 billion, up 65.2% on the year before. Free cash flow was 13.9% of revenue (the free-cash-flow margin), up 4.9 percentage points from a year earlier. The average diluted share count rose 0.0% over the year.
In context
Measured against its own history: today’s free-cash-flow margin of 13.9% is higher than 94% of the company’s own past quarterly readings, which have ranged from 5.8% to 15.7%. Today’s operating margin of 17.6% is higher than 78% of past readings (7.7% to 18.7%). Today’s twelve-month revenue growth rate of 7.2% is higher than 78% of past readings (−7.9% to 18.5%).
Questions this report will answer
Whether the slowdown in revenue growth continues. Whether results land above or below the analysts’ expectations set out above. At the same time, Whether margins hold at the trailing levels above. The next filing will show whether the trends above continue, slow or reverse.
What it means for our valuation
These trends feed directly into what the shares are worth in our model. In our model, growth 5 percentage points lower would lower the value by 34.8%, and 5 percentage points higher would raise it by 45.4%. A free-cash-flow margin 1 percentage point lower would lower it by 10.1%.
