Ares Commercial Real Estate Corp is a US-listed company in the mortgage REITs industry. Its financial year ends in December.
What company insiders, investment funds and members of Congress have been doing with the stock, from their own filings.
Revenue for the twelve months to June 2026 was $55m, down 10.6% on a year earlier, a smaller fall than the 19.1% decline a quarter earlier.
Our model value for Ares Commercial Real Estate is under review, so past values are not shown until it is resolved.
Source: 10-Q filed August 4, 2026 on SEC EDGAR · Financials · Valuation
Written from the company's filings and our models when each quarter's report arrives. Figures in older notes are as published at the time. Not investment advice.
Ares Commercial Real Estate Corp's trailing-twelve-month revenue fell 10.6% year on year, with a free-cash-flow margin of 18.0%. Where it stands out: change in growth rate of +8.5pp ranks 3 of 14 mortgage reits companies we cover. Where it lags: stock pay as % of revenue of 6.7% ranks 9 of 10 mortgage reits companies we cover.
Current signal Free cash flow diverging from earnings: TTM free cash flow fell 52.0% while net income grew 75.7%: a 128pp divergence.
Assembled from SEC-filed figures — the full workings are on this page and in our methodology. Observations, not recommendations.
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Third-party market data · may be delayed
Company announcements, filed results and changes that matter to shareholders.
No model value for Ares Commercial Real Estate Corp at the moment. Current status: valuation models disagree too widely to rate. Available reported financials are shown below.
The inputs used by the models below have passed source checks. Individual model values are available below and in the interactive valuator. Their differences are shown explicitly; the platform combined value and recommendation remain withheld.
We value Ares Commercial Real Estate Corp as a mortgage reit, with every model that fits that kind of business. Cost of equity 9.1%: the 10-year Treasury yield (4.9%) plus a beta of 0.92 times a 4.5% equity risk premium.
| Model | Value per share | In the combined value? |
|---|---|---|
| Residual income Book value plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, fading over ten years. | ~$1.3 ~$0.5–$2.4 | Primary model, counts double |
| Justified price-to-book Book value times (return on equity - growth) / (cost of equity - growth): steady-state returns. | — | Does not apply: This model is withheld pending its input or assumption review. |
| Price-to-book vs peers Book value per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) price-to-book. | ~$3.3 ~$2.6–$5.9 | Included |
| Dividend discount (growing dividend) Today's dividend growing 2.5% a year, discounted at the cost of equity. | ~$9.4 ~$8.2–$11 | Included |
| Combined value Individual source-checked model scenarios are available. The platform combined value and recommendation remain withheld. | — | Combined value withheld. Review the individual models and their assumptions. |
Different models fail in different ways, so where several apply we average them rather than trust one. Peer-based models compare Ares Commercial Real Estate Corp with mortgage REITs in our coverage, using third-party market data. Model values are estimates under stated assumptions, updated as new filings arrive; not price targets or investment advice. How each model works.
Moderate moat
How hard Ares Commercial Real Estate's competitive advantage looks for rivals to wear away, judged from 10 years of its own filings: returns on capital, pricing power, profit durability, cash conversion and discipline.
Net income has been a median 1.3% of total assets over 10 years.
Net margin has been a median 32.8%; its worst year was -63.3%.
The diluted share count rose 53.9% over five years; stock-based pay has been a median 2.3% of revenue.
AI disruption exposure: Low. In this industry, the business rests on physical assets, regulated networks or products AI itself depends on.
Next results: November 6, 2026, before the open. Analysts expect revenue of $14m and EPS of $0.06 (range −$0.25 to $0.20) for the quarter.
| Fiscal year | EPS | Growth | Revenue | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | $0.30 | +348% | $56m | +2% |
| Next | $0.33 | +10% | $60m | +8% |
Next year's EPS estimate has moved −29.0% in 90 days, across 6 analysts.
The consensus EPS forecast for the current fiscal year is −6.5% on 90 days ago. In the last 30 days, 2 analysts raised Ares Commercial Real Estate Corp's forecast and 1 cut it.
Average of analysts' published estimates (third-party data).
| Period | Current fiscal year | Next fiscal year |
|---|---|---|
| 90 days ago | $0.32 | $0.46 |
| 60 days ago | $0.39 | $0.34 |
| 30 days ago | $0.39 | $0.34 |
| 7 days ago | $0.26 | $0.28 |
| Now | $0.30 | $0.33 |
| Quarter to | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026 | $0.10 | $0.12 | +26.3% |
| Mar 2026 | $0.11 | $0.06 | −44.2% |
| Dec 2025 | −$0.02 | $0.15 | +753.3% |
| Sept 2025 | $0.04 | $0.10 | +183.2% |
Adjusted EPS as companies report it, against the average analyst estimate.
Last 12 months −12.4%
| Part | Then | Now | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (last 12 months) | $62m | $55m | −10.6% |
| P/S multiple | 3.5x | 3.4x | −1.5% |
| Share count | 55m | 55m | −0.5% |
Biggest factor: revenue. Loss-making at one end, so the split uses price/sales.
Last 3 years −48.4%
| Part | Then | Now | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (last 12 months) | $109m | $55m | −49.5% |
| P/S multiple | 3.3x | 3.4x | +3.0% |
| Share count | 55m | 55m | −0.9% |
Biggest factor: revenue. Loss-making at one end, so the split uses price/sales.
| Calendar year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 to date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return | ||||||
| ACRE | +34% | −20% | +16% | −34% | −8% | −21% |
| Industry peers (median) | +26% | −22% | +17% | +4% | +6% | −21% |
| S&P 500 | +29% | −18% | +26% | +25% | +18% | +11% |
| Months that ended higher | ||||||
| ACRE | 67% | 42% | 50% | 42% | 33% | 36% |
| S&P 500 | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 75% | 46% |
| Largest fall from a high during the year | ||||||
| ACRE | −15% | −34% | −36% | −37% | −42% | −39% |
| S&P 500 | −5% | −25% | −10% | −8% | −19% | −9% |
Worst fall since November 2, 2015: 76% from February 21, 2020 to March 18, 2020. Getting back needed a 311% gain, reached on May 7, 2021, 415 days after the low.
| Results released | Next day | S&P 500 next day | 5 days | 21 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 4, 2026 | +10.6% | +1.6% | +11.3% | +7.1% |
| May 7, 2026 | −1.5% | +0.5% | −9.6% | −7.9% |
| February 10, 2026 | +9.0% | −0.3% | +0.8% | −2.9% |
| November 7, 2025 | +6.0% | +1.7% | +9.8% | +15.6% |
| August 5, 2025 | −8.4% | +0.3% | −2.7% | +11.1% |
| May 7, 2025 | +17.0% | +1.1% | +16.5% | +16.3% |
| February 12, 2025 | −16.6% | +0.7% | −18.1% | −20.4% |
| November 7, 2024 | +11.6% | +1.2% | +7.7% | +9.6% |
| August 6, 2024 | −1.3% | +0.2% | −1.7% | 0.0% |
| May 9, 2024 | +0.3% | +0.7% | −0.9% | +1.9% |
| February 22, 2024 | −7.3% | +2.1% | −7.9% | −6.5% |
| November 3, 2023 | +0.6% | +1.1% | −1.1% | +4.1% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 31, 2026.
| Period | Revenue (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY23 Q3 | $105.8M |
| FY23 Q4 | $92.9M |
| FY24 Q1 | $85.1M |
| FY24 Q2 | $76.9M |
| FY24 Q3 | $69.7M |
| FY24 Q4 | $69.7M |
| FY25 Q1 | $65.9M |
| FY25 Q2 | $61.7M |
| FY25 Q3 | $59.1M |
| FY25 Q4 | $54.8M |
| FY26 Q1 | $53.3M |
| FY26 Q2 | $55.1M |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 31, 2026.
| Period | Revenue growth, TTM YoY |
|---|---|
| FY23 Q3 | -0.7% |
| FY23 Q4 | -13.0% |
| FY24 Q1 | -22.1% |
| FY24 Q2 | -29.5% |
| FY24 Q3 | -34.1% |
| FY24 Q4 | -25.0% |
| FY25 Q1 | -22.6% |
| FY25 Q2 | -19.8% |
| FY25 Q3 | -15.2% |
| FY25 Q4 | -21.3% |
| FY26 Q1 | -19.1% |
| FY26 Q2 | -10.6% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 31, 2026.
| Period | FCF margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY23 Q3 | 48.8% |
| FY23 Q4 | 49.3% |
| FY24 Q1 | 53.0% |
| FY24 Q2 | 53.4% |
| FY24 Q3 | 50.6% |
| FY24 Q4 | 44.2% |
| FY25 Q1 | 39.5% |
| FY25 Q2 | 33.6% |
| FY25 Q3 | 25.5% |
| FY25 Q4 | 23.5% |
| FY26 Q1 | -94.2% |
| FY26 Q2 | 18.0% |
| Fiscal year | 2012 Dec 2012 | 2013 Dec 2013 | 2014 Dec 2014 | 2015 Dec 2015 | 2016 Dec 2016 | 2017 Dec 2017 | 2018 Dec 2018 | 2019 Dec 2019 | 2020 Dec 2020 | 2021 Dec 2021 | 2022 Dec 2022 | 2023 Dec 2023 | 2024 Dec 2024 | 2025 Dec 2025 | LTM Jun 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | |||||||||||||||
| Revenue | 7 | 32 | 64 | 85 | 45 | 46 | 55 | 77 | 83 | 102 | 107 | 93 | 70 | 55 | 55 |
| Net income | 0 | 14 | 25 | 43 | 45 | 30 | 39 | 37 | 22 | 60 | 30 | −39 | −35 | −1 | −4 |
| Diluted EPS | $0.01 | $0.72 | $0.85 | $1.20 | $1.41 | $1.07 | $1.35 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | −$0.08 |
| Growth (year on year) | |||||||||||||||
| Revenue | — | +376.6% | +101.3% | +32.5% | −47.2% | +2.8% | +19.3% | +39.8% | +7.0% | +23.4% | +4.7% | −13.0% | −25.0% | −21.3% | −10.6% |
| Net income | — | +>999% | +78.8% | +76.0% | +3.6% | −32.2% | +26.9% | −4.2% | −41.0% | +176.8% | −50.7% | −230.5% | — | — | — |
| Diluted EPS | — | +>999% | +18.1% | +41.2% | +17.5% | −24.1% | +26.2% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Margins | |||||||||||||||
| Net margin | 2.8% | 43.0% | 38.2% | 50.7% | 99.5% | 65.6% | 69.8% | 47.9% | 26.4% | 59.2% | 27.9% | −41.8% | −50.2% | −1.6% | −8.0% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | — | 79.3% | −347.1% | 322.6% | −10.0% | 67.5% | 70.9% | 42.0% | 38.4% | 47.4% | 53.5% | 50.4% | 51.0% | 38.9% | 27.9% |
| Cash flow | |||||||||||||||
| Cash from operations | 2 | 25 | −223 | 276 | −4 | 31 | 39 | 32 | 32 | 48 | 57 | 47 | 36 | 21 | 15 |
| Capital spending | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Free cash flow | — | 25 | −224 | 276 | −4 | 31 | 39 | 32 | 32 | 48 | 57 | 47 | 36 | 21 | 15 |
| Stock-based pay | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | — | 25 | −225 | 275 | −5 | 31 | 38 | 31 | 30 | 46 | 54 | 43 | 31 | 17 | 12 |
| Balance sheet | |||||||||||||||
| Cash | 23 | 14 | 15 | 5 | 47 | 28 | 11 | 5 | 75 | 51 | 141 | 110 | 64 | 29 | 18 |
| Total debt | 67 | 333 | 815 | 623 | 936 | 1,068 | 888 | 895 | 929 | 1,041 | 960 | 895 | 718 | 948 | 1,263 |
| Net debt (negative = net cash) | 44 | 319 | 800 | 618 | 888 | 1,040 | 877 | 889 | 854 | 991 | 819 | 784 | 655 | 919 | 1,245 |
| Diluted shares | 20m | 19m | 29m | 29m | 29m | 29m | 29m | 29m | 33m | 43m | 52m | 54m | 54m | 55m | 55m |
| Returned to shareholders | |||||||||||||||
| Dividends | 2 | 19 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 31 | 32 | 37 | 43 | 58 | 72 | 76 | 60 | 39 | 34 |
| Buybacks | — | — | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Total returned | 2 | 19 | 29 | 29 | 31 | 31 | 32 | 37 | 43 | 58 | 72 | 81 | 60 | 39 | 34 |
| Quarter | 2024 Q3 Sept 2024 | 2024 Q4 Dec 2024 | 2025 Q1 Mar 2025 | 2025 Q2 Jun 2025 | 2025 Q3 Sept 2025 | 2025 Q4 Dec 2025 | 2026 Q1 Mar 2026 | 2026 Q2 Jun 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | ||||||||
| Revenue | 17 | 18 | 15 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 14 |
| Net income | −6 | −11 | 9 | −11 | 5 | −4 | −10 | 4 |
| Growth (year on year) | ||||||||
| Revenue | −30.3% | −0.2% | −20.0% | −25.2% | −15.3% | −24.5% | −10.0% | +14.3% |
| Net income | −164.0% | — | — | — | — | — | −202.8% | — |
| Margins | ||||||||
| Net margin | −35.3% | −60.9% | 62.5% | −87.8% | 33.0% | −29.2% | −71.4% | 30.5% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 50.6% | 40.4% | 53.6% | 38.8% | 27.2% | 35.0% | −420.6% | 442.6% |
| Cash flow | ||||||||
| Cash from operations | 8 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 5 | −57 | 64 |
| Capital spending | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Free cash flow | 8 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 5 | −57 | 64 |
| Stock-based pay | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | 7 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 4 | −58 | 63 |
| Last 12 months unless stated | ACRE | ACR | SEVN | CHMI | SUNS | TPTS | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $55m | $80m | $32m | $31m | $24m | $22m | $142m |
| Revenue growth, last 12 months | −10.6% | −3.4% | 7.7% | 1.8% | 44.3% | −50.3% | −2.4% |
| Revenue growth, 3-year average | −20.4% | −3.5% | −5.1% | — | — | −30.3% | −5.1% |
| Revenue growth, latest quarter | 14.3% | −4.1% | 16.6% | −23.5% | 2.6% | −46.8% | 0.9% |
| Net margin | −8.0% | 26.3% | 51.1% | 2.6% | 53.3% | −164.0% | 11.4% |
| Cash from operations / revenue | 27.9% | 4.1% | 57.3% | 138.3% | −2.7% | −5.4% | 27.9% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 18.0% | 4.1% | 54.0% | — | — | −17.9% | 24.1% |
| Free-cash-flow margin, 3-year average | 35.0% | 20.1% | 52.3% | — | — | −16.9% | 35.0% |
| Stock pay / revenue | 6.7% | 2.2% | 5.9% | 0.5% | 4.9% | — | 4.3% |
| Change in share count | 0.5% | −7.0% | 41.9% | 10.7% | 40.1% | 0.0% | 0.5% |
| Measure | Company | Peer median | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth Growth | -10.6% | -2.4% | 10 of 14 |
| Change in growth rate Growth | +8.5pp | +2.3pp | 3 of 14 |
| Net margin Profitability | -8.0% | 11.4% | 11 of 14 |
| Stock pay as % of revenue Cash generation | 6.7% | 5.4% | 9 of 10 |
| Change in share count Balance sheet | 0.5% | 0.5% | 8 of 14 |
Rank 1 = best in the group (for spending, debt and dilution, lower ranks first).
| Manager | Value | Shares | Share of 13F value | Shares QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackrock, Inc. | $21M | 4.7M | 18.5% | ▲ 3.5% |
| Vanguard Capital Management LLC | $10.9M | 2.4M | 9.5% | ▲ 3.8% |
| Lighthouse Investment Partners, LLC | $7M | 1.6M | 6.2% | ▲ 52.9% |
| Geode Capital Management, LLC | $6.5M | 1.4M | 5.7% | ▲ 3.7% |
| Hotchkis & Wiley Capital Management LLC | $6.1M | 1.4M | 5.3% | ▲ 8.0% |
| State Street Corp | $5.6M | 1.2M | 4.9% | ▲ 3.6% |
| North Ground Capital | $5.5M | 1.2M | 4.9% | ▲ 10.0% |
| Cura Wealth Advisors, LLC | $4.1M | 902K | 3.6% | ▼ 0.4% |
| Focus Partners Wealth | $2.8M | 627K | 2.5% | ▲ 6.9% |
| Van Eck Associates Corp | $2.7M | 600K | 2.4% | ▼ 11.2% |
| Northern Trust Corp | $2.7M | 594K | 2.3% | ▲ 2.6% |
| Alpine Global Management, LLC | $2.2M | 487K | 1.9% | ▼ 25.4% |
From Form 13F filings with the SEC ( quarterly data sets), as reported by each manager for June 30, 2026 and filed up to 45 days later. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M only, so this is not Ares Commercial Real Estate Corp's complete shareholder register. Values are as reported by the filers .
| Insider | Date | Trade | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feingold Anton Gen. Counsel VP and Secretary | January 14, 2026 | Sell | 7,606 | $4.93 | $37,498 |
| Gonzales Jeffrey Michael CFO and Treasurer | January 14, 2026 | Sell | 6,218 | $4.93 | $30,655 |
| Donohoe Bryan Patrick Chief Executive Officer | January 14, 2026 | Sell | 21,761 | $4.93 | $107,282 |
From insiders' Form 4 filings with the SEC. Excludes awards, option exercises and shares withheld for tax. "Pre-set plan" means the filing marks the trade as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. See every insider trade since five years ago, on a price chart.
No trades in Ares Commercial Real Estate Corp disclosed in the last 12 months; 7 earlier trades on record.
Next expected around November 6, 2026 estimated from the company's past filing pattern, not announced
| Data | Last updated | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | Exchange closing prices | |
| Financial statements | SEC 10-K and 10-Q filings | |
| News and updates | Company releases and SEC 8-K filings | |
| Analyst estimates | Aggregated analyst estimates | |
| Valuation and scores | Our models, from the filed figures |
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