Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc. is a US-listed company in the health care equipment industry. Its financial year ends in December.
Loading chart…
Third-party market data · may be delayed
~$0.1
Forward price-to-sales vs peers
Base case. Range ~$0.1–$0.3. Next year's consensus sales per share times peers' typical forward price-to-sales; only when earnings are negative.
No Buy/Hold/Sell rating is issued: limited reported history: available models are shown without a Buy/Hold/Sell rating.
Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc. valuation: adjust assumptions and compare models →
What company insiders, investment funds and members of Congress have been doing with the stock, from their own filings.
Adagio Medical has little or no product revenue yet; it used $17m of cash in the twelve months to June 2026. Our forward price-to-sales vs peers value is $0.09 a share, against a share price of $0.08.
Source: 10-Q filed August 11, 2026 on SEC EDGAR · Financials · Valuation
Written from the company's filings and our models when each quarter's report arrives. Figures in older notes are as published at the time. Not investment advice.
Current signal Long-term debt rising: Long-term debt rose 47% year over year, to 73% of total assets.
Assembled from SEC-filed figures — the full workings are on this page and in our methodology. Observations, not recommendations.
Nothing in Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc.'s latest figures clears our strength thresholds.
Loading chart…
Third-party market data · may be delayed
Company announcements, filed results and changes that matter to shareholders.
We value Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc. as an operating company, with every model that fits that kind of business. Cost of equity 10.8%: the 10-year Treasury yield (4.9%) plus a beta of 1.29 times a 4.5% equity risk premium.
| Model | Value per share | In the combined value? |
|---|---|---|
| Price-to-earnings vs peers Earnings per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) price-to-earnings. | — | Does not apply: no positive earnings in the latest twelve months |
| Residual income Book value plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, fading over ten years. | — | Does not apply: book value or earnings not available |
| Justified price-to-book Book value times (return on equity - growth) / (cost of equity - growth): steady-state returns. | — | Does not apply: return on equity is not positive |
| Revenue-to-maturity model Revenue grown to maturity with the cash margin moving to the industry's; for companies not yet profitable. | — | Does not apply: revenue and margins don't support a positive value |
| Forward price-to-sales vs peers Next year's consensus sales per share times peers' typical forward price-to-sales; only when earnings are negative. Uses analysts' consensus estimates (third-party data), not our forecasts. | ~$0.1 ~$0.1–$0.3 | Included, half weight |
| Combined value Weighted average of the models that apply: the primary model (price-to-earnings vs peers) counts double. Models more than 5x or less than 0.2x the share price, or more than 3x away from the other models' median, are left out. | ~$0.1 ~$0.1–$0.3 | 1 model |
Different models fail in different ways, so where several apply we average them rather than trust one. Peer-based models compare Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc. with Health Care Equipment in our coverage, using third-party market data. Model values are estimates under stated assumptions, updated as new filings arrive; not price targets or investment advice. How each model works.
Not assessed: fewer than five years of comparable figures in the filings. AI disruption exposure for this industry: Low.
| Fiscal year | EPS | Growth | Revenue | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | −$1.09 | +28% | — | 0% |
| Next | −$1.16 | −6% | $2m | 0% |
The consensus EPS forecast for the current fiscal year is +11.2% on 90 days ago. In the last 30 days, 0 analysts raised Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc.'s forecast and 2 cut it.
Average of analysts' published estimates (third-party data).
| Period | Current fiscal year | Next fiscal year |
|---|---|---|
| 90 days ago | −$0.98 | −$1.35 |
| 60 days ago | −$0.98 | −$1.35 |
| 30 days ago | −$1.09 | −$1.16 |
| 7 days ago | −$1.09 | −$1.16 |
| Now | −$1.09 | −$1.16 |
| Quarter to | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026 | −$0.27 | −$0.30 | −11.1% |
| Mar 2026 | −$0.29 | −$0.31 | −6.9% |
| Dec 2025 | −$0.31 | −$0.16 | +48.4% |
Adjusted EPS as companies report it, against the average analyst estimate.
| Calendar year | 2025 | 2026 to date |
|---|---|---|
| Return | ||
| ADGM | −1% | −92% |
| Industry peers (median) | −16% | −13% |
| S&P 500 | +18% | +11% |
| Months that ended higher | ||
| ADGM | 58% | 27% |
| S&P 500 | 75% | 46% |
| Largest fall from a high during the year | ||
| ADGM | −67% | −95% |
| S&P 500 | −19% | −9% |
Worst fall since August 1, 2024: 99% from August 1, 2024 to October 30, 2026. Getting back needed a 10804% gain, and the shares have not yet recovered.
| Results released | Next day | S&P 500 next day | 5 days | 21 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 11, 2026 | −7.3% | −0.1% | −13.2% | −22.0% |
| May 12, 2026 | −4.1% | +0.4% | −11.2% | −17.9% |
| March 27, 2026 | −12.9% | −2.0% | +0.8% | −12.1% |
| November 12, 2025 | −6.4% | −1.6% | −7.5% | +12.5% |
| August 13, 2025 | −1.6% | +0.4% | −2.3% | +33.9% |
| May 15, 2025 | −3.3% | +1.1% | −5.7% | −7.4% |
| April 2, 2025 | −5.8% | −4.3% | −7.7% | +50.0% |
| November 14, 2024 | +27.7% | −1.9% | −3.0% | −22.1% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 31, 2026.
| Period | Revenue (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY24 Q2 | $399K |
| FY25 Q3 | $137K |
| FY25 Q4 | $0 |
| FY26 Q1 | $0 |
| FY26 Q2 | $0 |
| Fiscal year | 2023 Dec 2023 | 2025 Dec 2025 | LTM Jun 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Income | |||
| Revenue | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gross profit | −1 | −1 | — |
| EBITDA | −27 | −21 | −19 |
| Operating income | −28 | −22 | −20 |
| Net income | −37 | −25 | −27 |
| Diluted EPS | −$48.16 | −$1.51 | −$1.36 |
| Growth (year on year) | |||
| Revenue | — | −100.0% | — |
| Margins | |||
| Gross margin | −335.3% | — | — |
| EBITDA margin | <−999% | — | — |
| Operating margin | <−999% | — | — |
| Net margin | <−999% | — | — |
| Free-cash-flow margin | <−999% | — | — |
| Cash flow | |||
| Cash from operations | −26 | −19 | −17 |
| Capital spending | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Free cash flow | −26 | −19 | −17 |
| Stock-based pay | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | −26 | −21 | −18 |
| Balance sheet | |||
| Cash | 1 | 17 | 8 |
| Total debt | 38 | 21 | 25 |
| Net debt (negative = net cash) | 37 | 4 | 17 |
| Diluted shares | — | 17m | 20m |
| Quarter | 2024 Q2 Jun 2024 | 2024 Q4 Dec 2024 | 2025 Q1 Mar 2025 | 2025 Q2 Jun 2025 | 2025 Q3 Sept 2025 | 2025 Q4 Dec 2025 | 2026 Q1 Mar 2026 | 2026 Q2 Jun 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | ||||||||
| Revenue | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gross profit | −0 | −1 | −0 | −0 | −0 | −0 | — | — |
| EBITDA | −6 | −58 | −7 | −5 | −5 | −4 | −5 | −5 |
| Operating income | −7 | −58 | −7 | −5 | −6 | −4 | −5 | −5 |
| Net income | −6 | −57 | −8 | −4 | −10 | −3 | −7 | −7 |
| Diluted EPS | −$7.35 | −$3.72 | −$0.51 | −$0.35 | −$0.66 | −$0.09 | −$0.31 | −$0.30 |
| Growth (year on year) | ||||||||
| Revenue | — | +75.6% | −100.0% | −100.0% | — | −100.0% | — | — |
| Margins | ||||||||
| Gross margin | −168.5% | <−999% | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| EBITDA margin | <−999% | <−999% | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating margin | <−999% | <−999% | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net margin | <−999% | <−999% | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Free-cash-flow margin | <−999% | <−999% | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash flow | ||||||||
| Cash from operations | −7 | −7 | −7 | −5 | −3 | −4 | −4 | −5 |
| Capital spending | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | −0 | 0 | 0 |
| Free cash flow | −7 | −8 | −8 | −5 | −4 | −4 | −4 | −5 |
| Stock-based pay | 0 | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | −7 | — | −8 | −5 | −4 | −5 | −5 | −6 |
| Manager | Value | Shares | Share of 13F value | Shares QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Perceptive Advisors LLC | $6.4M | 9.9M | 65.5% | 0.0% |
| Adage Capital Partners Gp, L.L.C. | $820,039 | 1.3M | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| ADAR1 Capital Management, LLC | $785,469 | 1.2M | 8.0% | 0.0% |
| Alyeska Investment Group, L.P. | $755,605 | 1.2M | 7.7% | 0.0% |
| Sio Capital Management, LLC | $455,461 | 699K | 4.6% | ▼ 45.8% |
| Silverarc Capital Management, LLC | $146,193 | 224K | 1.5% | ▼ 11.0% |
| Shaolin Capital Management LLC | $111,534 | 171K | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management LLC | $71,038 | 109K | 0.7% | ▲ 175.1% |
| Affinity Asset Advisors, LLC | $52,128 | 80K | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management, LLC | $51,550 | 79K | 0.5% | ▼ 36.8% |
| Vanguard Fiduciary Trust Co | $35,066 | 54K | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Northern Trust Corp | $20,118 | 31K | 0.2% | ▲ 43.0% |
From Form 13F filings with the SEC ( quarterly data sets), as reported by each manager for June 30, 2026 and filed up to 45 days later. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M only, so this is not Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc.'s complete shareholder register. Values are as reported by the filers .
| Insider | Date | Trade | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaster Deborah Chief Financial Officer | December 16, 2025 | Buy | 15,000 | $1.20 | $18,000 |
| Usen Todd Chief Executive Officer | December 12, 2025 | Buy | 207,315 | $1.09 | $225,973 |
From insiders' Form 4 filings with the SEC. Excludes awards, option exercises and shares withheld for tax. "Pre-set plan" means the filing marks the trade as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. See every insider trade since five years ago, on a price chart.
Next expected around November 11, 2026 estimated from the company's past filing pattern, not announced
| Data | Last updated | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | Exchange closing prices | |
| Financial statements | SEC 10-K and 10-Q filings | |
| News and updates | Company releases and SEC 8-K filings | |
| Analyst estimates | Aggregated analyst estimates | |
| Valuation and scores | Our models, from the filed figures |
New research on the companies we cover arrives in the weekly email. Free, one email a week.
