Aebi Schmidt Holding AG is a US-listed company in the construction machinery & heavy transportation equipment industry. Its financial year ends in December.
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~$10
Cash-flow model
Base case. Range ~$6.1–$16 across our lower- and higher-growth cases (8%–18% a year).
No Buy/Hold/Sell rating is issued: limited reported history: available models are shown without a Buy/Hold/Sell rating.
Aebi Schmidt Holding AG valuation: adjust assumptions and compare models →
What company insiders, investment funds and members of Congress have been doing with the stock, from their own filings.
Revenue for the twelve months to June 2026 was $1.95bn. Free-cash-flow margin fell to 0.3% from 3.9% a year earlier. It passes 2 of our 6 financial-health checks. Our cash-flow model value is $10.17 a share, against a share price of $11.34.
Source: 10-Q filed August 13, 2026 on SEC EDGAR · Financials · Valuation
Written from the company's filings and our models when each quarter's report arrives. Figures in older notes are as published at the time. Not investment advice.
Aebi Schmidt Holding AG's trailing-twelve-month revenue grew 79.4% year on year, with a free-cash-flow margin of 0.3%.
Our discounted-cash-flow model values the business at ~$10 per share in the base case (~$6.1–$16 across growth scenarios) — model values under stated assumptions, not a price target.
Current signal Free cash flow diverging from earnings: TTM free cash flow fell 85.9% while net income grew 56.5%: a 142pp divergence.
Assembled from SEC-filed figures — the full workings are on this page and in our methodology. Observations, not recommendations.
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Company announcements, filed results and changes that matter to shareholders.
Our value per share comes from a discounted-cash-flow model of Aebi Schmidt Holding AG's free cash flow after stock-based pay ( $44.3M, FY2026 Q2 TTM, with after-tax interest added back): growth for five years as below (the first two years from forecasts, guidance and the company's record), fading to 2.5%, discounted at 8.5%, then cash added and debt and other claims subtracted. These are model values under stated assumptions, not price targets or recommendations.
We value Aebi Schmidt Holding AG as an operating company, with every model that fits that kind of business. Cost of equity 9.8%: the 10-year Treasury yield (4.9%) plus a beta of 1.07 times a 4.5% equity risk premium.
| Model | Value per share | In the combined value? |
|---|---|---|
| Cash-flow model (DCF) Free cash flow to the firm (after stock pay, with after-tax interest added back), grown then faded to 2.5%, discounted at 8.5% as the firm rate, less debt and other claims. | ~$10 ~$6.1–$16 | Primary model, counts double |
| Price-to-earnings vs peers Earnings per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) price-to-earnings. | ~$5.2 ~$4.9–$9.2 | Included |
| Residual income Book value plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, fading over ten years. | ~$5.1 ~$3.5–$7.3 | Included |
| Justified price-to-book Book value times (return on equity - growth) / (cost of equity - growth): steady-state returns. | ~$2.5 ~$2.2–$2.9 | Included |
| Combined value Weighted average of the models that apply: the primary model (cash-flow model (dcf)) counts double. Models more than 5x or less than 0.2x the share price, or more than 3x away from the other models' median, are left out. | ~$6.6 ~$2.5–$10 | 4 models |
Different models fail in different ways, so where several apply we average them rather than trust one. Peer-based models compare Aebi Schmidt Holding AG with Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment in our coverage, using third-party market data. Model values are estimates under stated assumptions, updated as new filings arrive; not price targets or investment advice. How each model works.
| Discount rate ↓ / growth → | −5% growth | 0% growth | 5% growth | 10% growth | 15% growth | 20% growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7% | $2 | $5 | $9 | $14 | $20 | $29 |
| 8.5% | — | $2 | $5 | $8 | $13 | $19 |
| 10% | — | $0 | $2 | $5 | $9 | $14 |
| At fiscal year end | 2025 | Now |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | $12.58 | $11.79 |
| Market value | $739m | $912m |
| + Net debt (− = net cash) | $496m | $508m |
| Enterprise value | $1.2bn | $1.4bn |
| Multiples | ||
| Price / sales | 0.5x | 0.5x |
| Price / earnings | 75.9x | 43.1x |
| Price / free cash flow | — | 153.3x |
| EV / EBITDA | 10.5x | 11.0x |
Not assessed: fewer than five years of comparable figures in the filings. AI disruption exposure for this industry: Low.
Next results: November 11, 2026, before the open. Analysts expect revenue of $520m and EPS of $0.23 (range $0.21 to $0.24) for the quarter.
| Fiscal year | EPS | Growth | Revenue | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | $0.73 | +4% | $2.1bn | +35% |
| Next | $1.20 | +64% | $2.2bn | +5% |
Next year's EPS estimate has moved −11.5% in 90 days, across 2 analysts.
The consensus EPS forecast for the current fiscal year is +1.4% on 90 days ago. In the last 30 days, 0 analysts raised Aebi Schmidt Holding AG's forecast and 1 cut it.
Average of analysts' published estimates (third-party data).
| Period | Current fiscal year | Next fiscal year |
|---|---|---|
| 90 days ago | $0.72 | $1.35 |
| 60 days ago | $0.76 | $1.35 |
| 30 days ago | $0.76 | $1.24 |
| 7 days ago | $0.73 | $1.24 |
| Now | $0.73 | $1.20 |
| Quarter to | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026 | $0.13 | $0.15 | +19.3% |
| Mar 2026 | $0.05 | $0.06 | +18.9% |
| Dec 2025 | $0.26 | $0.34 | +32.7% |
| Sept 2025 | $0.13 | $0.20 | +50.5% |
Adjusted EPS as companies report it, against the average analyst estimate.
Our cash-flow model grows Aebi Schmidt Holding AG's revenue by +10.1% next year and +11.3% the year after, then fades back toward its own record by year five. Next year's rate weighs analysts' consensus (+7.8%, weight 56%) and the company's own record (+13.0%, weight 44%) . How the weights are set.
Last 12 months +6.6%
| Part | Then | Now | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (last 12 months) | $1.1bn | $2.0bn | +79.4% |
| Net margin | 1.2% | 1.1% | −12.8% |
| P/E multiple | 66.0x | 43.1x | −34.7% |
| Share count | 81m | 77m | +4.4% |
Biggest factor: revenue.
| Calendar year | 2026 to date |
|---|---|
| Return | |
| AEBI | −6% |
| Industry peers (median) | +13% |
| S&P 500 | +11% |
| Months that ended higher | |
| AEBI | 64% |
| S&P 500 | 46% |
| Largest fall from a high during the year | |
| AEBI | −41% |
| S&P 500 | −9% |
Worst fall since July 2, 2025: 41% from February 20, 2026 to March 26, 2026. Getting back needed a 69% gain, and the shares have not yet recovered.
| Results released | Next day | S&P 500 next day | 5 days | 21 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 13, 2026 | −2.2% | +0.5% | −8.1% | −7.2% |
| May 14, 2026 | +11.3% | −0.4% | +10.1% | +13.5% |
| March 19, 2026 | −22.8% | −1.7% | −28.0% | −10.0% |
| February 24, 2026 | +0.7% | +1.6% | −4.5% | −35.2% |
| November 13, 2025 | +1.3% | −1.7% | −1.6% | +26.8% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 31, 2026.
| Period | Revenue (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY24 Q4 | $1.1B |
| FY25 Q1 | $1.1B |
| FY25 Q2 | $1.1B |
| FY25 Q3 | $1.3B |
| FY25 Q4 | $1.5B |
| FY26 Q1 | $1.7B |
| FY26 Q2 | $2B |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 31, 2026.
| Period | Operating margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY24 Q4 | 6.3% |
| FY25 Q1 | 5.8% |
| FY25 Q2 | 5.3% |
| FY25 Q3 | 4.5% |
| FY25 Q4 | 4.8% |
| FY26 Q1 | 4.3% |
| FY26 Q2 | 4.5% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 31, 2026.
| Period | FCF margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY24 Q4 | 5.1% |
| FY25 Q1 | 3.3% |
| FY25 Q2 | 3.9% |
| FY25 Q3 | 1.1% |
| FY25 Q4 | -0.3% |
| FY26 Q1 | 0.3% |
| FY26 Q2 | 0.3% |
Each dollar Aebi Schmidt Holding AG took in during FY2025, followed through to profit: what it cost to make, what went on research and running the business, and what was left after tax.
| Revenue | $1.5B | |
|---|---|---|
| Cost of revenue | $1.2B | 80.1% of revenue |
| Gross profit | $304M | 19.9% of revenue |
| Research and development | $26.5M | 1.7% of revenue |
| Selling, general and admin | $181M | 11.8% of revenue |
| Other operating costs | $23.8M | 1.6% of revenue |
| Operating income | $73.1M | 4.8% of revenue |
| Interest and other | $61.8M | 4.1% of revenue |
| Net income | $9.7M | 0.6% of revenue |
| Fiscal year | 2023 Dec 2023 | 2024 Dec 2024 | 2025 Dec 2025 | LTM Jun 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | ||||
| Revenue | 1,016 | 1,086 | 1,527 | 1,952 |
| Gross profit | 207 | 228 | 304 | 379 |
| EBITDA | 86 | 95 | 117 | 130 |
| Operating income | 59 | 68 | 73 | 87 |
| Net income | 11 | 31 | 10 | 21 |
| Diluted EPS | $0.28 | $0.76 | $0.17 | $0.27 |
| Growth (year on year) | ||||
| Revenue | — | +6.9% | +40.6% | +79.4% |
| EBITDA | — | +10.1% | +23.6% | +69.5% |
| Operating income | — | +16.0% | +6.7% | +52.2% |
| Net income | — | — | −68.3% | — |
| Diluted EPS | — | — | −77.6% | — |
| Margins | ||||
| Gross margin | 20.3% | 21.0% | 19.9% | 19.4% |
| EBITDA margin | 8.5% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 6.6% |
| Operating margin | 5.8% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 4.5% |
| Net margin | 1.1% | 2.8% | 0.6% | 1.1% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 1.8% | 5.1% | −0.3% | 0.3% |
| Cash flow | ||||
| Cash from operations | 30 | 69 | 9 | 20 |
| Capital spending | 12 | 14 | 14 | 14 |
| Free cash flow | 18 | 55 | −5 | 6 |
| Stock-based pay | 0 | 0 | 7 | 5 |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | 18 | 55 | −12 | 1 |
| Balance sheet | ||||
| Cash | 43 | 65 | 99 | 110 |
| Total debt | 0 | 400 | 595 | 618 |
| Net debt (negative = net cash) | −43 | 335 | 496 | 508 |
| Diluted shares | 40m | 40m | 59m | 77m |
| Returned to shareholders | ||||
| Dividends | 2 | 3 | 13 | 8 |
| Total returned | 2 | 3 | 13 | 8 |
| Quarter | 2024 Q3 Sept 2024 | 2024 Q4 Dec 2024 | 2025 Q1 Mar 2025 | 2025 Q2 Jun 2025 | 2025 Q3 Sept 2025 | 2025 Q4 Dec 2025 | 2026 Q1 Mar 2026 | 2026 Q2 Jun 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | ||||||||
| Revenue | 262 | 298 | 249 | 278 | 471 | 528 | 456 | 496 |
| Gross profit | 55 | 57 | 53 | 57 | 94 | 100 | 87 | 97 |
| EBITDA | 19 | 20 | 21 | 16 | 24 | 43 | 29 | 33 |
| Operating income | 16 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 17 | 27 | 15 | 27 |
| Net income | 4 | 9 | 2 | −2 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 11 |
| Diluted EPS | $0.06 | $0.12 | $0.03 | −$0.03 | $0.02 | $0.15 | $0.01 | $0.14 |
| Growth (year on year) | ||||||||
| Revenue | — | — | −3.7% | +4.2% | +79.6% | +77.2% | +82.8% | +78.7% |
| EBITDA | — | — | −20.5% | −23.4% | +26.4% | +120.3% | +38.8% | +98.0% |
| Operating income | — | — | −28.3% | −28.5% | +7.1% | +114.9% | +6.8% | +95.1% |
| Net income | — | — | −76.3% | −128.3% | — | −7.4% | — | — |
| Diluted EPS | — | — | −96.9% | −130.0% | — | +30.4% | — | — |
| Margins | ||||||||
| Gross margin | 20.9% | 19.3% | 21.4% | 20.5% | 20.0% | 18.9% | 19.2% | 19.6% |
| EBITDA margin | 7.3% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 6.6% |
| Operating margin | 6.2% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 5.4% |
| Net margin | 1.6% | 3.2% | 0.8% | −0.8% | 0.3% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 2.1% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 7.3% | 16.6% | −11.9% | 1.2% | −1.8% | 5.6% | −4.3% | 0.9% |
| Cash flow | ||||||||
| Cash from operations | 22 | 54 | −27 | 5 | −3 | 34 | −18 | 7 |
| Capital spending | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| Free cash flow | 19 | 50 | −30 | 3 | −9 | 30 | −20 | 4 |
| Stock-based pay | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | — | 50 | −30 | 3 | −9 | 28 | −21 | 3 |
| Last 12 months unless stated | AEBI | TRN | MTW | BLBD | ASTE | GBX | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $2.0bn | $2.1bn | $2.3bn | $1.6bn | $1.6bn | $2.5bn | $2.0bn |
| Revenue growth, last 12 months | 79.4% | −2.4% | 8.9% | 13.5% | 18.7% | −24.0% | 11.7% |
| Revenue growth, 3-year average | — | −8.6% | 2.0% | 14.0% | 4.5% | −14.5% | 4.3% |
| Revenue growth, latest quarter | 78.7% | 17.8% | 10.3% | 29.9% | 23.6% | −22.2% | 18.0% |
| Gross margin | 19.4% | 24.6% | 18.7% | 20.6% | 25.7% | 13.6% | 21.0% |
| Operating margin | 4.5% | 34.5% | 3.1% | 11.8% | 3.4% | 5.8% | 5.8% |
| Operating margin, 3-year average | — | 23.4% | 2.5% | 10.9% | 3.2% | 8.7% | 8.6% |
| Net margin | 1.1% | 15.4% | 0.9% | 17.5% | 1.3% | 3.2% | 2.9% |
| Cash from operations / revenue | 1.0% | 19.3% | 4.8% | 11.2% | 5.2% | 1.6% | 8.1% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 0.3% | 16.8% | 3.0% | 9.5% | 2.1% | −9.7% | 5.5% |
| Free-cash-flow margin, 3-year average | — | 15.0% | 0.3% | 8.6% | 1.7% | −4.0% | 5.9% |
| Stock pay / revenue | 0.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| Change in share count | — | −1.9% | 2.3% | −0.1% | 1.2% | −1.1% | −0.1% |
| Line of business | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| North America | $975M | 63.9% | ▲ 64.3% |
| Europe and Rest of World | $552M | 36.1% | ▲ 12.0% |
| Line of business | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Business | $1.3B | 85.5% | ▲ 42.0% |
| After Sales | $222M | 14.5% | ▲ 32.5% |
| Region | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| North America | $975M | ▲ 64.3% |
| United States | $934M | ▲ 70.0% |
| Europe and Rest of The World | $552M | ▲ 12.0% |
| Outside the US | $538M | ▲ 12.8% |
| Switzerland | $54.3M | ▼ 8.7% |
These categories overlap or exclude eliminations, so shares aren't shown.
From Aebi Schmidt Holding AG's 10-K filed March 19, 2026, as tagged in the filing. View filing. Indented rows are part of the line above; their share is of that line. In the bars, the faint bar behind is the year before.
| Manager | Value | Shares | Share of 13F value | Shares QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pzena Investment Management LLC | $54.2M | 4.3M | 13.8% | ▲ 5.1% |
| T. Rowe Price Investment Management, Inc. | $42.4M | 3.4M | 10.8% | ▼ 11.5% |
| Blackrock, Inc. | $40.6M | 3.2M | 10.4% | ▲ 5.9% |
| Medina Value Partners, LLC | $23.9M | 1.9M | 6.1% | ▲ 18.8% |
| Zuckerman Investment Group, LLC | $23.6M | 1.9M | 6.0% | New |
| Dimensional Fund Advisors LP | $19M | 1.5M | 4.8% | ▼ 0.1% |
| Royce & Associates LP | $16.3M | 1.3M | 4.2% | ▲ 3.2% |
| Loomis Sayles & Co L P | $12.7M | 1.0M | 3.2% | ▲ 8.0% |
| Newedge Wealth, LLC | $11M | 875K | 2.8% | ▼ 4.9% |
| Goldman Sachs Group Inc | $10.4M | 827K | 2.6% | ▼ 3.7% |
| Csm Advisors, LLC | $8.9M | 712K | 2.3% | ▲ 32.7% |
| Schwerin Boyle Capital Management Inc | $8.7M | 692K | 2.2% | 0.0% |
From Form 13F filings with the SEC ( quarterly data sets), as reported by each manager for June 30, 2026 and filed up to 45 days later. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M only, so this is not Aebi Schmidt Holding AG's complete shareholder register. Values are as reported by the filers .
| Insider | Date | Trade | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scherer Marcus Andreas Chief Engineering | May 19, 2026 | Buy | 2,000 | $12.15 | $24,300 |
| Schewerda Steffen Pres Vehicle Soln & CEO NA | May 19, 2026 | Buy | 5,000 | $11.68 | $58,400 |
| Schaub Patrick Francois Director | May 15, 2026 | Buy | 6,500 | $11.41 | $74,165 |
| Portmann Marco Group Chief Financial Officer | May 15, 2026 | Buy | 5,000 | $11.31 | $56,550 |
| Schroeder Henning CEO Europe and ROW | May 15, 2026 | Buy | 3,000 | $11.30 | $33,900 |
| Meury Joel Michel Principal Accounting Officer | May 15, 2026 | Buy | 500 | $11.30 | $5,650 |
| Schaub Patrick Francois Director | December 5, 2025 | Buy | 7,500 | $12.75 | $95,625 |
| Fruithof Barend Gerrit Group CEO | November 25, 2025 | Buy | 5,000 | $12.01 | $60,050 |
| Schewerda Steffen Pres Vehicle Soln & CEO NA | November 21, 2025 | Buy | 5,000 | $10.68 | $53,400 |
| Schenkirsch Thomas Chief Group Services | November 17, 2025 | Buy | 6,500 | $10.90 | $70,850 |
| Portmann Marco Chief Financial Officer | November 14, 2025 | Buy | 5,000 | $11.20 | $56,000 |
From insiders' Form 4 filings with the SEC. Excludes awards, option exercises and shares withheld for tax. "Pre-set plan" means the filing marks the trade as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. See every insider trade since five years ago, on a price chart.
Next expected around October 26, 2026 estimated from the company's past filing pattern, not announced
| Data | Last updated | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | Exchange closing prices | |
| Financial statements | SEC 10-K and 10-Q filings | |
| News and updates | Company releases and SEC 8-K filings | |
| Analyst estimates | Aggregated analyst estimates | |
| Valuation and scores | Our models, from the filed figures |
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