Advanced Flower Capital Inc. is a US-listed company in the commercial & residential mortgage finance industry. Its financial year ends in December.
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Advanced Flower Capital Inc. valuation: adjust assumptions and compare models →
What company insiders, investment funds and members of Congress have been doing with the stock, from their own filings.
Revenue for the twelve months to June 2026 was $25m, down 46.2% on a year earlier, a smaller fall than the 49.7% decline a quarter earlier. The diluted share count is up 5.4% on a year earlier, which dilutes existing holders.
Our model value for Advanced Flower Capital is under review, so past values are not shown until it is resolved.
Source: 10-Q filed August 13, 2026 on SEC EDGAR · Financials · Valuation
Written from the company's filings and our models when each quarter's report arrives. Figures in older notes are as published at the time. Not investment advice.
Current signal Net margin compressing: TTM net margin fell to -84.7%, down 121.0pp year over year.
Assembled from SEC-filed figures — the full workings are on this page and in our methodology. Observations, not recommendations.
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Company announcements, filed results and changes that matter to shareholders.
The inputs used by the models below have passed source checks. Individual model values are available below and in the interactive valuator. Their differences are shown explicitly; the platform combined value and recommendation remain withheld.
We value Advanced Flower Capital Inc. as an operating company, with every model that fits that kind of business. Cost of equity 8.2%: the 10-year Treasury yield (4.9%) plus a beta of 0.72 times a 4.5% equity risk premium.
| Model | Value per share | In the combined value? |
|---|---|---|
| Growth cash-flow model Revenue for this year and next from analysts' consensus, then growth fading to 2.5%; the operating margin moving to profitable peers'; investment needed per dollar of growth from peers; reduced by a failure probability. For young or fast-growing companies. The starting margin is normalized to between -100% and 60%; net margin is a proxy when operating income is not tagged. Uses analysts' consensus estimates (third-party data), not our forecasts. | — | Does not apply: This model is withheld pending its input or assumption review. |
| Forward price-to-earnings vs peers Next year's consensus earnings per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) forward price-to-earnings. Uses analysts' consensus estimates (third-party data), not our forecasts. | — | Does not apply: This model is withheld pending its input or assumption review. |
| Residual income Book value plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, fading over ten years. | ~$6.1 ~$4.4–$8.3 | Included |
| Justified price-to-book Book value times (return on equity - growth) / (cost of equity - growth): steady-state returns. | ~$5.3 ~$4.7–$6.1 | Included |
| Forward price-to-sales vs peers Next year's consensus sales per share times peers' typical forward price-to-sales; only when earnings are negative. Uses analysts' consensus estimates (third-party data), not our forecasts. | — | Does not apply: This model is withheld pending its input or assumption review. |
| Revenue-to-maturity model Revenue grown to maturity with the cash margin moving to the industry's; for companies not yet profitable. | — | Does not apply: This model is withheld pending its input or assumption review. |
| Combined value Individual source-checked model scenarios are available. The platform combined value and recommendation remain withheld. | — | Combined value withheld. Review the individual models and their assumptions. |
Different models fail in different ways, so where several apply we average them rather than trust one. Peer-based models compare Advanced Flower Capital Inc. with Financials sector in our coverage, using third-party market data. Model values are estimates under stated assumptions, updated as new filings arrive; not price targets or investment advice. How each model works.
| At fiscal year end | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share price | $6.71 | $6.00 | $7.12 | $2.71 |
| Market value | $134m | $122m | $149m | $60m |
| + Net debt (− = net cash) | −$140m | −$90m | −$104m | −$39m |
| Enterprise value | −$7m | $32m | $45m | $22m |
| Multiples | ||||
| Price / sales | 1.8x | 1.9x | 3.3x | 2.5x |
| Price / earnings | 3.7x | 5.8x | 9.1x | — |
| Price / free cash flow | — | — | — | — |
| EV / EBITDA | — | — | — | — |
Not assessed: fewer than five years of comparable figures in the filings. AI disruption exposure for this industry: Medium.
Next results: November 5, 2026, before the open. Analysts expect revenue of $7m and EPS of $0.16 (range $0.16 to $0.16) for the quarter.
| Fiscal year | EPS | Growth | Revenue | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | $1.04 | +210% | $29m | +19% |
| Next | $0.74 | +9% | $30m | +1% |
Next year's EPS estimate has moved −18.4% in 90 days, across 3 analysts.
The consensus EPS forecast for the current fiscal year is +69.1% on 90 days ago. In the last 30 days, 0 analysts raised Advanced Flower Capital Inc.'s forecast and 0 cut it.
Average of analysts' published estimates (third-party data).
| Period | Current fiscal year | Next fiscal year |
|---|---|---|
| 90 days ago | $0.61 | $0.90 |
| 60 days ago | $1.14 | $0.90 |
| 30 days ago | $1.14 | $0.74 |
| 7 days ago | $1.09 | $0.74 |
| Now | $1.04 | $0.74 |
| Quarter to | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026 | $0.19 | $0.15 | −19.6% |
| Mar 2026 | $0.18 | $0.21 | +14.5% |
| Dec 2025 | −$0.06 | $0.03 | +151.2% |
| Sept 2025 | $0.18 | −$0.57 | −416.7% |
Adjusted EPS as companies report it, against the average analyst estimate.
Last 12 months −3.4%
| Part | Then | Now | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (last 12 months) | $29m | $25m | −16.4% |
| P/S multiple | 2.3x | 2.8x | +21.7% |
| Share count | 22m | 23m | −5.1% |
Biggest factor: p/s multiple. Loss-making at one end, so the split uses price/sales.
Last 3 years −44.2%
| Part | Then | Now | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (last 12 months) | $71m | $25m | −65.3% |
| Net margin | 51.7% | 20.6% | −60.1% |
| P/E multiple | 3.0x | 13.5x | +354.5% |
| Share count | 20m | 23m | −11.3% |
Biggest factor: p/e multiple.
| Calendar year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 to date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return | |||||
| AFCG | −21% | −11% | +19% | −62% | +10% |
| Industry peers (median) | −11% | +12% | +6% | +6% | +2% |
| S&P 500 | −18% | +26% | +25% | +18% | +11% |
| Months that ended higher | |||||
| AFCG | 50% | 33% | 42% | 17% | 46% |
| S&P 500 | 42% | 67% | 75% | 75% | 46% |
| Largest fall from a high during the year | |||||
| AFCG | −32% | −35% | −18% | −68% | −31% |
| S&P 500 | −25% | −10% | −8% | −19% | −9% |
Worst fall since March 19, 2021: 78% from November 12, 2021 to February 5, 2026. Getting back needed a 360% gain, and the shares have not yet recovered.
| Results released | Next day | S&P 500 next day | 5 days | 21 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 13, 2026 | +12.1% | +0.5% | +17.7% | +24.1% |
| May 7, 2026 | +16.2% | +0.5% | +4.3% | +26.4% |
| March 4, 2026 | +16.3% | +0.1% | +19.0% | +29.6% |
| November 12, 2025 | −4.3% | −1.6% | −15.4% | +8.6% |
| August 14, 2025 | −11.2% | −0.2% | −18.2% | +2.0% |
| May 14, 2025 | −8.8% | +0.6% | −13.7% | −21.2% |
| March 13, 2025 | −22.0% | +0.7% | −25.2% | −41.7% |
| November 13, 2024 | −2.1% | −0.6% | +1.8% | +1.5% |
| August 7, 2024 | +11.8% | +1.6% | +14.1% | +19.1% |
| May 9, 2024 | −0.6% | +0.7% | −0.8% | −2.5% |
| March 7, 2024 | +4.2% | +0.4% | +8.2% | +9.4% |
| November 8, 2023 | −0.4% | −0.7% | +2.1% | +11.7% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 1, 2026.
| Period | Revenue (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY23 Q1 | $74.6M |
| FY23 Q2 | $70.8M |
| FY23 Q3 | $67.9M |
| FY23 Q4 | $63.9M |
| FY24 Q1 | $59.8M |
| FY24 Q2 | $60.1M |
| FY24 Q3 | $53.8M |
| FY24 Q4 | $45.7M |
| FY25 Q1 | $39.6M |
| FY25 Q2 | $29.4M |
| FY25 Q3 | $27M |
| FY25 Q4 | $24.6M |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 1, 2026.
| Period | Revenue growth, TTM YoY |
|---|---|
| FY23 Q4 | -14.4% |
| FY24 Q1 | -19.8% |
| FY24 Q2 | -15.0% |
| FY24 Q3 | -20.8% |
| FY24 Q4 | -28.6% |
| FY25 Q1 | -33.9% |
| FY25 Q2 | -51.2% |
| FY25 Q3 | -49.7% |
| FY25 Q4 | -46.2% |
| Fiscal year | 2022 Dec 2022 | 2023 Dec 2023 | 2024 Dec 2024 | 2025 Dec 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | ||||
| Revenue | 75 | 64 | 46 | 25 |
| Net income | 36 | 21 | 16 | −21 |
| Diluted EPS | $1.79 | $1.02 | $0.78 | −$0.95 |
| Growth (year on year) | ||||
| Revenue | — | −14.4% | −28.6% | −46.2% |
| Net income | — | −41.7% | −22.0% | −228.8% |
| Diluted EPS | — | −43.0% | −23.5% | −221.8% |
| Margins | ||||
| Net margin | 48.1% | 32.8% | 35.8% | −85.7% |
| Cash flow | ||||
| Cash from operations | 31 | 21 | 22 | 11 |
| Stock-based pay | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| Balance sheet | ||||
| Cash | 140 | 90 | 104 | 39 |
| Total debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Net debt (negative = net cash) | −140 | −90 | −104 | −39 |
| Diluted shares | 20m | 20m | 21m | 22m |
| Returned to shareholders | ||||
| Dividends | 42 | 43 | 40 | 19 |
| Total returned | 42 | 43 | 40 | 19 |
| Quarter | 2024 Q1 Mar 2024 | 2024 Q2 Jun 2024 | 2024 Q3 Sept 2024 | 2024 Q4 Dec 2024 | 2025 Q1 Mar 2025 | 2025 Q2 Jun 2025 | 2025 Q3 Sept 2025 | 2025 Q4 Dec 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | ||||||||
| Revenue | 13 | 16 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 5 |
| Net income | −0 | 16 | 1 | −1 | 4 | −13 | −13 | 1 |
| Diluted EPS | −$0.01 | $0.80 | $0.06 | −$0.07 | $0.18 | −$0.60 | −$0.57 | $0.04 |
| Growth (year on year) | ||||||||
| Revenue | −24.4% | +1.9% | −41.8% | −51.5% | −47.8% | −62.2% | −26.5% | −32.1% |
| Net income | −100.5% | +35.5% | −84.8% | — | — | −180.0% | <−999% | — |
| Diluted EPS | −102.0% | +35.6% | −84.6% | — | — | −175.0% | <−999% | — |
| Margins | ||||||||
| Net margin | −0.4% | 100.3% | 13.7% | −14.1% | 61.2% | −212.2% | −192.4% | 16.2% |
| Cash flow | ||||||||
| Cash from operations | 6 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 6 | −1 |
| Stock-based pay | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Last 12 months unless stated | AFCG | CNF | FOA | TFSL | AGM | NMIH | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $25m | $16m | $337m | $344m | $446m | $731m | $1.2bn |
| Revenue growth, last 12 months | −46.2% | −84.2% | −42.3% | 10.5% | 14.7% | 7.5% | 10.5% |
| Revenue growth, 3-year average | −31.0% | — | 81.9% | 3.6% | 11.7% | 10.4% | 10.6% |
| Revenue growth, latest quarter | −32.1% | — | −64.8% | 8.8% | 21.8% | 8.1% | 10.3% |
| Operating margin | — | −163.7% | −0.5% | — | — | — | 3.6% |
| Net margin | −84.7% | −421.3% | −0.1% | 29.7% | 51.4% | 54.1% | 12.3% |
| Cash from operations / revenue | 45.7% | 75.6% | −164.8% | 28.5% | 69.6% | 61.4% | 28.5% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | — | 72.4% | −164.8% | 25.1% | 69.6% | 60.4% | 10.1% |
| Free-cash-flow margin, 3-year average | — | 76.1% | −115.7% | 28.3% | 86.3% | 59.2% | 1.3% |
| Stock pay / revenue | 27.8% | 2.1% | — | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.0% |
| Change in share count | 5.4% | 6.9% | — | 0.1% | −0.3% | −3.0% | 0.1% |
| Manager | Value | Shares | Share of 13F value | Shares QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cdc Financial, Inc. | $5.6M | 1.8M | 41.2% | ▲ 22.0% |
| Jane Street Group, LLC | $1.3M | 418K | 9.6% | ▲ 82.7% |
| Mirae Asset Global Etfs Holdings Ltd. | $683,200 | 220K | 5.1% | ▲ 14.5% |
| Susquehanna International Group, LLP | $619,724 | 200K | 4.6% | ▲ 38.4% |
| Gsa Capital Partners LLP | $599,000 | 193K | 4.4% | ▼ 19.8% |
| Squarepoint Ops LLC | $594,574 | 192K | 4.4% | ▲ 213.7% |
| Arrowstreet Capital, Limited Partnership | $537,022 | 173K | 4.0% | New |
| Morgan Stanley | $376,784 | 122K | 2.8% | ▲ 0.3% |
| D. E. Shaw & Co., Inc. | $361,061 | 116K | 2.7% | ▲ 19.3% |
| Citadel Advisors LLC | $354,662 | 114K | 2.6% | ▼ 43.0% |
| Acadian Asset Management LLC | $335,000 | 108K | 2.5% | New |
| Black Maple Capital Management LP | $285,606 | 92K | 2.1% | ▼ 16.9% |
From Form 13F filings with the SEC ( quarterly data sets), as reported by each manager for June 30, 2026 and filed up to 45 days later. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M only, so this is not Advanced Flower Capital Inc.'s complete shareholder register. Values are as reported by the filers .
| Insider | Date | Trade | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tannenbaum Leonard M Director | September 30, 2026 | Buy | 44,643 | $3.63 | $162,054 |
| Tannenbaum Leonard M Director | September 29, 2026 | Buy | 40,081 | $3.59 | $143,891 |
| Tannenbaum Leonard M Director | September 28, 2026 | Buy | 10,673 | $3.57 | $38,103 |
| Tannenbaum Leonard M Director | September 25, 2026 | Buy | 5,228 | $3.52 | $18,403 |
| Tannenbaum Leonard M Director | September 24, 2026 | Buy | 20,000 | $3.49 | $69,800 |
| Tannenbaum Leonard M Director | September 23, 2026 | Buy | 3,471 | $3.49 | $12,114 |
| Tannenbaum Leonard M Director | September 22, 2026 | Buy | 23,072 | $3.49 | $80,521 |
| Tannenbaum Leonard M Director | September 18, 2026 | Buy | 10,000 | $3.49 | $34,900 |
| Tannenbaum Leonard M Director | September 17, 2026 | Buy | 25,000 | $3.50 | $87,500 |
| Tannenbaum Leonard M Director | September 16, 2026 | Buy | 2,341 | $3.43 | $8,030 |
| Tannenbaum Leonard M Director | September 15, 2026 | Buy | 608 | $3.50 | $2,128 |
| Tannenbaum Leonard M Director | September 14, 2026 | Buy | 25,198 | $3.50 | $88,193 |
From insiders' Form 4 filings with the SEC. Excludes awards, option exercises and shares withheld for tax. "Pre-set plan" means the filing marks the trade as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. See every insider trade since five years ago, on a price chart.
Next expected around November 11, 2026 estimated from the company's past filing pattern, not announced
| Data | Last updated | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | Exchange closing prices | |
| Financial statements | SEC 10-K and 10-Q filings | |
| News and updates | Company releases and SEC 8-K filings | |
| Analyst estimates | Aggregated analyst estimates | |
| Valuation and scores | Our models, from the filed figures |
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