Afya Ltd is a US-listed company in the education services industry. Its financial year ends in December.
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Under review: every model's value for Afya Ltd is far from the share price, which usually points to a data problem (a merger, a share-count change, a one-off) rather than a bargain or a bubble.
Under review: share count (4m) is 0.044x the market-data count (88m). We'll show the comparison once resolved.
What company insiders, investment funds and members of Congress have been doing with the stock, from their own filings.
Revenue for the twelve months was $662m, up 7.5% on a year earlier, faster than the 6.9% growth a quarter earlier. Free-cash-flow margin rose to 36.9% from 29.4% a year earlier. Operating margin widened to 32.8% from 25.6%. Against its peers on growth, profitability, cash generation and balance sheet, it grades B. It passes 3 of our 7 financial-health checks.
Our model value for Afya is under review, so past values are not shown until it is resolved.
Written from the company's filings and our models when each quarter's report arrives. Figures in older notes are as published at the time. Not investment advice.
Afya Ltd's trailing-twelve-month revenue grew 7.5% year on year, with a free-cash-flow margin of 36.9%. Where it stands out: operating margin of 32.8% ranks 1 of 25 education services companies we cover. Where it lags: long-term debt as % of assets of 21.3% ranks 12 of 14 education services companies we cover.
Our discounted-cash-flow model values the business at ~$1300 per share in the base case (~$940–$1700 across growth scenarios) — model values under stated assumptions, not a price target.
Current signal Operating margin expanding: TTM operating margin reached 32.8%, up 2.2pp year over year.
Assembled from SEC-filed figures — the full workings are on this page and in our methodology. Observations, not recommendations.
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Third-party market data · may be delayed
Company announcements, filed results and changes that matter to shareholders.
No recent updates are available for AFYA from the sources we follow. See filings →
Our value per share comes from a discounted-cash-flow model of Afya Ltd's free cash flow after stock-based pay ( $188M, FY2025 Q4 TTM, with after-tax interest added back): growth for five years as below (the first two years from forecasts, guidance and the company's record), fading to 2.5%, discounted at 8.5%, then cash added and debt and other claims subtracted. These are model values under stated assumptions, not price targets or recommendations.
Not assessed: fewer than five years of comparable figures in the filings. AI disruption exposure for this industry: Medium.
Next results: November 12, 2026, after the close.
No analyst estimates are published for Afya Ltd: too few analysts cover it.
| Quarter to | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026 | $2.05 | $2.21 | +7.8% |
| Mar 2026 | $2.91 | $2.85 | −2.1% |
| Dec 2025 | $1.87 | $2.25 | +20.1% |
| Sept 2025 | $1.77 | $2.08 | +17.3% |
Adjusted EPS as companies report it, against the average analyst estimate.
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 2, 2026.
| Period | Revenue (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY17 Q4 | $67.7M |
| FY18 Q4 | $92.1M |
| FY19 Q4 | $190.6M |
| FY20 Q4 | $235M |
| FY21 Q4 | $319.1M |
| FY22 Q4 | $452.2M |
| FY23 Q4 | $576.3M |
| FY24 Q4 | $616.1M |
| FY25 Q4 | $662.4M |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 2, 2026.
| Period | Revenue growth, TTM YoY |
|---|---|
| FY18 Q4 | 35.9% |
| FY19 Q4 | 107.1% |
| FY20 Q4 | 23.3% |
| FY21 Q4 | 35.8% |
| FY22 Q4 | 41.7% |
| FY23 Q4 | 27.4% |
| FY24 Q4 | 6.9% |
| FY25 Q4 | 7.5% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 2, 2026.
| Period | Operating margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY17 Q4 | 22.8% |
| FY18 Q4 | 28.9% |
| FY19 Q4 | 27.3% |
| FY20 Q4 | 30.2% |
| FY21 Q4 | 25.6% |
| FY22 Q4 | 28.5% |
| FY23 Q4 | 26.7% |
| FY24 Q4 | 30.6% |
| FY25 Q4 | 32.8% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 2, 2026.
| Period | FCF margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY17 Q4 | 10.7% |
| FY18 Q4 | 18.5% |
| FY19 Q4 | 32.3% |
| FY20 Q4 | 23.4% |
| FY21 Q4 | 29.4% |
| FY22 Q4 | 29.0% |
| FY23 Q4 | 32.2% |
| FY24 Q4 | 39.2% |
| FY25 Q4 | 36.9% |
Each dollar Afya took in during FY2025, followed through to profit: what it cost to make, what went on running the business, and what was left after tax.
| Revenue | $662M | |
|---|---|---|
| Cost of revenue | $235M | 35.5% of revenue |
| Gross profit | $427M | 64.5% of revenue |
| Other operating costs | $210M | 31.7% of revenue |
| Operating income | $217M | 32.8% of revenue |
| Interest and other | $82.5M | 12.5% of revenue |
| Net income | $135M | 20.4% of revenue |
| Fiscal year | 2017 Dec 2017 | 2018 Dec 2018 | 2019 Dec 2019 | 2020 Dec 2020 | 2021 Dec 2021 | 2022 Dec 2022 | 2023 Dec 2023 | 2024 Dec 2024 | 2025 Dec 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | |||||||||
| Revenue | 68 | 92 | 191 | 235 | 319 | 452 | 576 | 616 | 662 |
| Gross profit | 29 | 46 | 112 | 150 | 198 | 285 | 354 | 389 | 427 |
| EBITDA | 17 | 29 | 34 | 50 | 110 | 169 | 212 | 251 | 284 |
| Operating income | 15 | 27 | 52 | 71 | 82 | 129 | 154 | 189 | 217 |
| Net income | 14 | 24 | 39 | 57 | 41 | 73 | 77 | 118 | 135 |
| Diluted EPS | $0.44 | $0.50 | $0.51 | $0.61 | $0.44 | $0.80 | $0.86 | $1.29 | $1.48 |
| Growth (year on year) | |||||||||
| Revenue | — | +35.9% | +107.1% | +23.3% | +35.8% | +41.7% | +27.4% | +6.9% | +7.5% |
| EBITDA | — | +73.8% | +15.3% | +48.5% | +121.8% | +53.0% | +25.3% | +18.5% | +13.3% |
| Operating income | — | +71.8% | +96.1% | +36.4% | +15.1% | +57.6% | +19.2% | +22.8% | +15.2% |
| Net income | — | +67.2% | +64.2% | +46.2% | −27.5% | +75.0% | +6.7% | +52.1% | +14.5% |
| Diluted EPS | — | +12.9% | +2.8% | +19.0% | −27.9% | +81.8% | +7.0% | +51.0% | +14.3% |
| Margins | |||||||||
| Gross margin | 42.6% | 49.7% | 58.9% | 63.8% | 62.1% | 63.1% | 61.4% | 63.2% | 64.5% |
| EBITDA margin | 24.7% | 31.6% | 17.6% | 21.2% | 34.6% | 37.4% | 36.7% | 40.7% | 42.9% |
| Operating margin | 22.8% | 28.9% | 27.3% | 30.2% | 25.6% | 28.5% | 26.7% | 30.6% | 32.8% |
| Net margin | 21.0% | 25.9% | 20.5% | 24.3% | 13.0% | 16.0% | 13.4% | 19.1% | 20.4% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 10.7% | 18.5% | 32.3% | 23.4% | 29.4% | 29.0% | 32.2% | 39.2% | 36.9% |
| Cash flow | |||||||||
| Cash from operations | 13 | 22 | 76 | 73 | 117 | 164 | 209 | 267 | 274 |
| Capital spending | 5 | 5 | 14 | 18 | 23 | 33 | 24 | 26 | 30 |
| Free cash flow | 7 | 17 | 62 | 55 | 94 | 131 | 185 | 242 | 245 |
| Stock-based pay | — | 1 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 3 |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | — | 16 | 57 | 49 | 86 | 125 | 179 | 236 | 242 |
| Balance sheet | |||||||||
| Cash | 8 | 16 | 235 | 201 | 134 | 207 | 114 | 147 | 205 |
| Total debt | 0 | 20 | 15 | 119 | 247 | 356 | 371 | 355 | 375 |
| Net debt (negative = net cash) | −8 | 4 | −220 | −82 | 112 | 149 | 257 | 208 | 170 |
| Diluted shares | 32m | 48m | 76m | 94m | 94m | 91m | 91m | 91m | 91m |
| Returned to shareholders | |||||||||
| Dividends | 1 | 2 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 26 |
| Total returned | 1 | 2 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 26 |
| Last 12 months unless stated | AFYA | LINC | PRDO | UTI | LOPE | STRA | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $662m | $571m | $859m | $884m | $1.1bn | $1.3bn | $266m |
| Revenue growth, last 12 months | 7.5% | 22.0% | 11.7% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 3.5% | 7.5% |
| Revenue growth, 3-year average | — | 16.7% | 5.7% | 17.3% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 10.3% |
| Revenue growth, latest quarter | — | 22.4% | 1.8% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 5.8% |
| Gross margin | 64.5% | 59.8% | — | — | — | — | 54.6% |
| Operating margin | 32.8% | 5.9% | 24.6% | 5.0% | 24.5% | 14.0% | 5.0% |
| Operating margin, 3-year average | 27.1% | 4.4% | 23.8% | 7.2% | 26.0% | 13.5% | 5.9% |
| Net margin | 20.4% | 4.0% | 20.6% | 3.9% | 19.6% | 10.5% | 3.9% |
| Cash from operations / revenue | 41.4% | 16.5% | 26.2% | 8.4% | 24.4% | 16.8% | 8.4% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 36.9% | 4.3% | 25.4% | −2.6% | 21.2% | 13.1% | 5.8% |
| Free-cash-flow margin, 3-year average | 25.7% | −5.8% | 24.1% | 4.5% | 22.7% | 11.6% | 5.4% |
| Stock pay / revenue | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.4% |
| Change in share count | 0.1% | 15.0% | −3.8% | 0.3% | −5.3% | −6.2% | 0.7% |
| Measure | Company | Peer median | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth Growth | 7.5% | 7.5% | 13 of 25 |
| Change in growth rate Growth | +0.6pp | -0.5pp | 10 of 25 |
| Gross margin Profitability | 64.5% | 54.6% | 4 of 19 |
| Operating margin Profitability | 32.8% | 5.0% | 1 of 25 |
| Net margin Profitability | 20.4% | 3.9% | 2 of 25 |
| Free-cash-flow margin Cash generation | 36.9% | 5.8% | 1 of 25 |
| Stock pay as % of revenue Cash generation | 0.4% | 1.4% | 4 of 21 |
| Long-term debt as % of assets Balance sheet | 21.3% | 16.5% | 12 of 14 |
| Change in share count Balance sheet | 0.1% | 0.7% | 11 of 24 |
Rank 1 = best in the group (for spending, debt and dilution, lower ranks first).
| Manager | Value | Shares | Share of 13F value | Shares QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FMR LLC | $38.8M | 2.6M | 24.1% | ▼ 3.3% |
| Softbank Group Corp. | $36.1M | 2.4M | 22.4% | 0.0% |
| Doma Perpetual Capital Management LLC | $35.6M | 2.4M | 22.1% | ▲ 5.1% |
| BAMCO Inc | $17.5M | 1.2M | 10.8% | ▼ 20.7% |
| Renaissance Technologies LLC | $5.1M | 343K | 3.2% | ▼ 9.4% |
| Blackrock, Inc. | $4.8M | 324K | 3.0% | ▼ 3.2% |
| Swedbank AB | $2.8M | 189K | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| Two Sigma Investments, LP | $2.3M | 156K | 1.4% | ▼ 51.7% |
| State Street Corp | $1.9M | 128K | 1.2% | ▼ 0.4% |
| Citadel Advisors LLC | $1.6M | 109K | 1.0% | ▲ 122.1% |
| D. E. Shaw & Co., Inc. | $1.6M | 107K | 1.0% | ▲ 2.7% |
| Bank Of America Corp | $1.1M | 76K | 0.7% | ▼ 10.2% |
From Form 13F filings with the SEC ( quarterly data sets), as reported by each manager for June 30, 2026 and filed up to 45 days later. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M only, so this is not Afya Ltd's complete shareholder register. Values are as reported by the filers ; 2 inconsistently scaled filing rows were excluded.
| Insider | Date | Trade | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ferreira Santos Welder Controller | October 5, 2026 | Sell | 4,161 | $13.30 | $55,341 |
| Junior Lelio De Souza Vice President | July 1, 2026 | Sell | 36,204 | $15.00 | $543,060 |
| Junior Lelio De Souza Vice President | June 26, 2026 | Sell | 41,541 | $15.00 | $623,115 |
| Basolli Gomiero Mirella Vice President | June 26, 2026 | Sell | 10,000 | $14.80 | $148,000 |
| Ferreira Santos Welder Controller | April 17, 2026 | Sell | 3,325 | $15.90 | $52,868 |
| Grifo De Sousa Anibal Jose VP Legal, Comp., & Gov Rel. | April 13, 2026 | Sell | 3,000 | $15.50 | $46,500 |
| Grifo De Sousa Anibal Jose VP Legal, Comp., & Gov Rel. | April 13, 2026 | Sell | 5,000 | $15.35 | $76,750 |
| Grifo De Sousa Anibal Jose VP Legal, Comp., & Gov Rel. | April 13, 2026 | Sell | 6,000 | $15.42 | $92,520 |
| Junior Lelio De Souza Vice President | April 9, 2026 | Sell | 16,279 | $14.53 | $236,534 |
| Blanco Luis Andre Carpintero Chief Financial Officer | April 8, 2026 | Sell | 10,000 | $15.20 | $152,000 |
| Grifo De Sousa Anibal Jose VP Legal, Comp., & Gov Rel. | April 7, 2026 | Sell | 5,000 | $15.20 | $76,000 |
| Junior Lelio De Souza Vice President | April 7, 2026 | Sell | 26,753 | $14.95 | $399,957 |
From insiders' Form 4 filings with the SEC. Excludes awards, option exercises and shares withheld for tax. "Pre-set plan" means the filing marks the trade as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. See every insider trade since five years ago, on a price chart.
| Data | Last updated | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | Exchange closing prices | |
| News and updates | Company releases and SEC 8-K filings | |
| Analyst estimates | Aggregated analyst estimates | |
| Valuation and scores | Our models, from the filed figures |
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