AGM Group Holdings, Inc. is a US-listed company in the IT consulting & other services industry. Its financial year ends in December.
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~$1.3
Cash-flow model
Base case. Range ~$0.5–$2.4 across our lower- and higher-growth cases (-1%–9% a year).
Modestly undervalued
The price is inside our value range, 62% below our base value.
Price used: $0.50, November 2, 2026
AGM Group Holdings, Inc. valuation: adjust assumptions and compare models →
What company insiders, investment funds and members of Congress have been doing with the stock, from their own filings.
Revenue for the twelve months was $31m, down 4.6% on a year earlier, a smaller fall than the 53.4% decline a quarter earlier. Free-cash-flow margin fell to -13.3% from -6.0% a year earlier. Operating margin narrowed to -15.3% from 13.5%. The diluted share count is up 261.2% on a year earlier, which dilutes existing holders. It passes 2 of our 2 financial-health checks. Our cash-flow model value is $1.33 a share.
Written from the company's filings and our models when each quarter's report arrives. Figures in older notes are as published at the time. Not investment advice.
AGM Group Holdings, Inc.'s trailing-twelve-month revenue fell 4.6% year on year, with a free-cash-flow margin of -13.3%. Where it stands out: change in growth rate of +48.8pp ranks 3 of 40 it consulting & other services companies we cover. Where it lags: days sales outstanding of 300 days ranks 30 of 30 it consulting & other services companies we cover.
Our discounted-cash-flow model values the business at ~$1.3 per share in the base case (~$0.5–$2.4 across growth scenarios) — model values under stated assumptions, not a price target.
Current signal Share count rising (dilution): Diluted shares outstanding rose 261.2% year over year.
Assembled from SEC-filed figures — the full workings are on this page and in our methodology. Observations, not recommendations.
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Company announcements, filed results and changes that matter to shareholders.
No recent updates are available for AGMH from the sources we follow. See filings →
The share price implies cash flow shrinking about 0.9% a year for five years.That is slower than the 256.2% a year revenue growth AGM Group Holdings has delivered.
Read with care: free cash flow has swung sharply in the past year (often a one-off tax, legal or working-capital item), so the cash-flow base behind this reading may be unusually low or high.
Our cash-flow model with every input fixed except growth over the next five years, solved for the growth at which the model value equals the share price ($0.51, Nov 3, 2026). Cash-flow growth then fades to 2.5% a year; discount rate 8.5%. Delivered figures are revenue growth from SEC filings. This is a model exercise, not investment advice or a forecast of the share price. All companies
Our value per share comes from a discounted-cash-flow model of AGM Group Holdings, Inc.'s free cash flow after stock-based pay ( $312,055, FY2025 Q4 TTM, with after-tax interest added back): growth for five years as below (the first two years from forecasts, guidance and the company's record), fading to 2.5%, discounted at 8.5%, then cash added and debt and other claims subtracted. These are model values under stated assumptions, not price targets or recommendations.
We value AGM Group Holdings, Inc. as an operating company, with every model that fits that kind of business. Cost of equity 12.5%: the 10-year Treasury yield (4.9%) plus a beta of 1.68 times a 4.5% equity risk premium.
| Model | Value per share | In the combined value? |
|---|---|---|
| Cash-flow model (DCF) Free cash flow to the firm (after stock pay, with after-tax interest added back), grown then faded to 2.5%, discounted at 8.5% as the firm rate, less debt and other claims. | ~$1.3 ~$0.5–$2.4 | Primary model, counts double |
| Price-to-earnings vs peers Earnings per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) price-to-earnings. | ~$4.8 ~$4.3–$7.9 | Left out: out of range vs price (9.56x) |
| Residual income Book value plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, fading over ten years. | ~$18 ~$13–$26 | Left out: out of range vs price (35.70x) |
| Justified price-to-book Book value times (return on equity - growth) / (cost of equity - growth): steady-state returns. | ~$18 ~$16–$20 | Left out: out of range vs price (35.72x) |
| Combined value Weighted average of the models that apply: the primary model (cash-flow model (dcf)) counts double. Models more than 5x or less than 0.2x the share price, or more than 3x away from the other models' median, are left out. | ~$1.3 ~$0.5–$2.4 | 1 model |
Different models fail in different ways, so where several apply we average them rather than trust one. Peer-based models compare AGM Group Holdings, Inc. with IT Consulting & Other Services in our coverage, using third-party market data. Model values are estimates under stated assumptions, updated as new filings arrive; not price targets or investment advice. How each model works.
| Discount rate ↓ / growth → | −5% growth | 0% growth | 5% growth | 10% growth | 15% growth | 20% growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7% | $1 | $2 | $3 | $4 | $6 | $9 |
| 8.5% | — | $1 | $2 | $3 | $4 | $6 |
| 10% | — | $0 | $1 | $2 | $3 | $4 |
| At fiscal year end | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share price | $1337.50 | $846.75 | $764.00 | $120.00 | $82.50 | $90.50 | $75.50 | $1.97 |
| Market value | $560m | $361m | $333m | $52m | $40m | $44m | $37m | $3m |
| + Net debt (− = net cash) | −$8m | −$1m | −$664605 | −$17m | −$4m | −$2m | −$1m | $3m |
| Enterprise value | $553m | $359m | $332m | $35m | $36m | $42m | $35m | $7m |
| Multiples | ||||||||
| Price / sales | 109.6x | n/m | n/m | 1.4x | 0.2x | 0.6x | 1.1x | 0.1x |
| Price / earnings | — | — | — | 14.5x | 3.5x | — | 11.7x | 6.1x |
| Price / free cash flow | — | — | — | — | — | — | 5.1x | — |
| EV / EBITDA | — | — | — | 7.0x | 2.9x | 2.7x | 6.0x | — |
Not assessed: fewer than five years of comparable figures in the filings. AI disruption exposure for this industry: High.
No analyst estimates are published for AGM Group Holdings, Inc.: too few analysts cover it.
| Calendar year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 to date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return | ||||||
| AGMH | −84% | −31% | +10% | −17% | −97% | −75% |
| Industry peers (median) | +10% | −35% | +4% | +24% | −22% | −13% |
| S&P 500 | +29% | −18% | +26% | +25% | +18% | +11% |
| Months that ended higher | ||||||
| AGMH | 25% | 42% | 42% | 50% | 17% | 18% |
| S&P 500 | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 75% | 46% |
| Largest fall from a high during the year | ||||||
| AGMH | −86% | −54% | −38% | −78% | −98% | −80% |
| S&P 500 | −5% | −25% | −10% | −8% | −19% | −9% |
Worst fall since April 18, 2018: 100% from November 19, 2018 to October 21, 2026. Getting back needed a 443415% gain, and the shares have not yet recovered.
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved Invalid Date.
| Period | Revenue (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY16 Q4 | $6.9M |
| FY17 Q4 | $12.4M |
| FY18 Q4 | $5.1M |
| FY19 Q4 | $330K |
| FY20 Q4 | $53.3K |
| FY21 Q4 | $36.7M |
| FY22 Q4 | $203.1M |
| FY23 Q4 | $68.8M |
| FY24 Q4 | $32M |
| FY25 Q4 | $30.6M |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved Invalid Date.
| Period | Revenue growth, TTM YoY |
|---|---|
| FY17 Q4 | 80.6% |
| FY18 Q4 | -58.9% |
| FY19 Q4 | -93.5% |
| FY20 Q4 | -83.8% |
| FY21 Q4 | 68767.7% |
| FY22 Q4 | 453.3% |
| FY23 Q4 | -66.1% |
| FY24 Q4 | -53.4% |
| FY25 Q4 | -4.6% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved Invalid Date.
| Period | Operating margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY16 Q4 | 35.6% |
| FY17 Q4 | 46.0% |
| FY18 Q4 | -46.3% |
| FY19 Q4 | -366.6% |
| FY20 Q4 | -1900.7% |
| FY21 Q4 | 13.5% |
| FY22 Q4 | 6.2% |
| FY23 Q4 | 23.0% |
| FY24 Q4 | 18.6% |
| FY25 Q4 | -15.3% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved Invalid Date.
| Period | FCF margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY16 Q4 | 22.6% |
| FY17 Q4 | 52.5% |
| FY18 Q4 | -56.5% |
| FY19 Q4 | -59.7% |
| FY20 Q4 | -3100.7% |
| FY21 Q4 | -6.0% |
| FY22 Q4 | -8.7% |
| FY23 Q4 | -2.5% |
| FY24 Q4 | 22.2% |
| FY25 Q4 | -13.3% |
| Fiscal year | 2016 Dec 2016 | 2017 Dec 2017 | 2018 Dec 2018 | 2019 Dec 2019 | 2020 Dec 2020 | 2021 Dec 2021 | 2022 Dec 2022 | 2023 Dec 2023 | 2024 Dec 2024 | 2025 Dec 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | ||||||||||
| Revenue | 7 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 37 | 203 | 69 | 32 | 31 |
| Gross profit | 5 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 42 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
| EBITDA | 2 | 6 | −2 | −1 | −1 | 5 | 13 | 16 | 6 | −5 |
| Operating income | 2 | 6 | −2 | −1 | −1 | 5 | 13 | 16 | 6 | −5 |
| Net income | 2 | 4 | −8 | −2 | −1 | 4 | 11 | −7 | 3 | 1 |
| Diluted EPS | $674.00 | $9.50 | −$20.00 | −$3.50 | −$2.50 | $8.50 | $23.50 | −$15.33 | $6.44 | $0.32 |
| Growth (year on year) | ||||||||||
| Revenue | — | +80.6% | −58.9% | −93.5% | −83.8% | +>999% | +453.3% | −66.1% | −53.4% | −4.6% |
| EBITDA | — | +140.7% | −133.3% | — | — | — | +153.4% | +25.2% | −62.4% | −178.4% |
| Operating income | — | +133.2% | −141.5% | — | — | — | +155.2% | +25.1% | −62.4% | −178.7% |
| Net income | — | +65.9% | −315.7% | — | — | — | +223.1% | −164.8% | — | −82.0% |
| Diluted EPS | — | −98.6% | −310.5% | — | — | — | +176.5% | −165.2% | — | −95.0% |
| Margins | ||||||||||
| Gross margin | 66.6% | 73.1% | 67.7% | 87.0% | 27.7% | 18.0% | 20.8% | 4.6% | 21.4% | 10.3% |
| EBITDA margin | 36.0% | 48.0% | −38.8% | −351.4% | <−999% | 13.6% | 6.2% | 23.0% | 18.6% | −15.3% |
| Operating margin | 35.6% | 46.0% | −46.3% | −366.6% | <−999% | 13.5% | 6.2% | 23.0% | 18.6% | −15.3% |
| Net margin | 34.1% | 31.4% | −164.6% | −473.6% | <−999% | 9.7% | 5.7% | −10.8% | 9.7% | 1.8% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 22.6% | 52.5% | −56.5% | −59.7% | <−999% | −6.0% | −8.7% | −2.5% | 22.2% | −13.3% |
| Cash flow | ||||||||||
| Cash from operations | 2 | 7 | −3 | −0 | −2 | −2 | −17 | −2 | 7 | −4 |
| Capital spending | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Free cash flow | 2 | 7 | −3 | −0 | −2 | −2 | −18 | −2 | 7 | −4 |
| Balance sheet | ||||||||||
| Cash | 4 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Total debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | — | 0 | 4 |
| Net debt (negative = net cash) | −4 | −8 | −8 | −1 | −1 | −17 | −4 | −2 | −1 | 3 |
| Diluted shares | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2m |
| Last 12 months unless stated | AGMH | MAAS | CISO | SUPX | CSPI | ARBB | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $31m | $26m | $25m | $20m | $57m | $58m | $383m |
| Revenue growth, last 12 months | −4.6% | −75.8% | −14.1% | >999% | −0.7% | 28.5% | 5.7% |
| Revenue growth, 3-year average | — | — | −19.9% | — | −4.8% | — | 4.3% |
| Revenue growth, latest quarter | — | — | −13.7% | — | −6.8% | — | 4.7% |
| Gross margin | 10.3% | 13.7% | 26.9% | −5.4% | 33.1% | −4.0% | 28.0% |
| Operating margin | −15.3% | −12.9% | −31.0% | −500.2% | −5.3% | — | 5.9% |
| Operating margin, 3-year average | 14.7% | −4.8% | −44.4% | — | −4.5% | — | 7.5% |
| Net margin | 1.8% | −102.1% | −11.7% | −527.7% | −1.2% | −35.6% | 2.2% |
| Cash from operations / revenue | −13.3% | −56.4% | −14.6% | −362.8% | −1.9% | −0.6% | 6.7% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | −13.3% | −58.2% | −17.2% | −389.5% | −2.5% | 43.1% | 5.0% |
| Free-cash-flow margin, 3-year average | 11.0% | −21.2% | −17.8% | — | 6.8% | — | 6.7% |
| Stock pay / revenue | — | 0.6% | 8.7% | 257.6% | 3.2% | — | 2.2% |
| Change in share count | 261.2% | >999% | 92.0% | 148.1% | 2.1% | 0.0% | 0.9% |
| Measure | Company | Peer median | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth Growth | -4.6% | 6.5% | 31 of 40 |
| Change in growth rate Growth | +48.8pp | -0.8pp | 3 of 40 |
| Gross margin Profitability | 10.3% | 28.2% | 31 of 34 |
| Operating margin Profitability | -15.3% | 5.9% | 31 of 36 |
| Net margin Profitability | 1.8% | 2.5% | 21 of 40 |
| Free-cash-flow margin Cash generation | -13.3% | 5.1% | 32 of 38 |
| Change in share count Balance sheet | 261.2% | 0.9% | 38 of 39 |
| Days sales outstanding Balance sheet | 300 days | 71 days | 30 of 30 |
Rank 1 = best in the group (for spending, debt and dilution, lower ranks first).
| Manager | Value | Shares | Share of 13F value | Shares QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L1 Global Manager Pty Ltd | $238,000 | 200K | 70.4% | New |
| Citadel Advisors LLC | $60,153 | 51K | 17.8% | New |
| HRT Financial LP | $28,000 | 24K | 8.3% | New |
| UBS Group AG | $11,995 | 10K | 3.5% | New |
| Caitong International Asset Management Co., Ltd | $5 | 0K | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sbi Securities Co., Ltd. | $4 | 0K | 0.0% | ▲ 50.0% |
| Arax Advisory Partners | $3 | 0K | 0.0% | 0.0% |
From Form 13F filings with the SEC ( quarterly data sets), as reported by each manager for June 30, 2026 and filed up to 45 days later. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M only, so this is not AGM Group Holdings, Inc.'s complete shareholder register. Values are as reported by the filers .
From insiders' Form 4 filings with the SEC. Excludes awards, option exercises and shares withheld for tax. "Pre-set plan" means the filing marks the trade as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. See every insider trade since five years ago, on a price chart.
| Data | Last updated | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | Exchange closing prices | |
| News and updates | Company releases and SEC 8-K filings | |
| Analyst estimates | Aggregated analyst estimates | |
| Valuation and scores | Our models, from the filed figures |
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