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American International Group: what the price is pricing in

The price implies earnings growth of -1.7% a year; our model expects 6.9%. The gap is too narrow for a position this quarter. Switch lens below to see the same question asked of earnings, growth, sales and book value.

What growth in earnings is the price paying for?

The price implies earnings growth of -1.7% a year; our model expects 6.9%.

Gap too narrow for a position this quarter

What the price implies What our model expects

Quarters with a position2522 long, 3 short, since March 31, 2011
Beat the S&P 50013 of 2552.0% of quarters held
Strategy against the index+9.9%cumulative; worst fall -30.4%
$10,000 became$35,872S&P 500 bought and held: $33,239

Over time

The earnings growth the price-to-earnings ratio requires, against the growth our model assumes. Net income is already after interest, so it is valued at the return shareholders require, plus spare cash (none for banks and insurers, whose cash is funded by deposits and policies), with no debt subtracted.

-30%-10%10%30%50% 20112013201520172020202220242026 $20.9$43.8$66.8$89.8 Long from 2011-03-31Long from 2011-06-30Long from 2011-09-30Long from 2011-12-31Long from 2012-03-31Long from 2012-06-30Long from 2012-09-30Long from 2012-12-31Long from 2014-03-31Long from 2014-09-30Long from 2014-12-31Short from 2016-03-31Short from 2016-12-31Short from 2017-06-30Long from 2020-03-31Long from 2020-06-30Long from 2021-12-31Long from 2022-03-31Long from 2022-06-30Long from 2022-09-30Long from 2022-12-31Long from 2023-03-31Long from 2023-06-30Long from 2023-09-30Long from 2024-06-30
Growth our model assumes Growth the P/E implies Long quarter Short quarter. Lower panel: the share price at each quarter end, adjusted for later share splits and spin-offs (the table below gives the price as traded).

$10,000 trading the gap vs the S&P 500

$0$10.0k$20.0k$30.0k 2011201320152017202120232025 $35.9k$33.2k
StrategyS&P 500, buy and hold Hypothetical, before costs. The strategy holds the S&P 500 and only changes on a signal: it switches into AIG in long quarters and adds a short of AIG in short quarters. The gap between the lines is what the signal added or lost.

Skill or luck?

In plain English: Across 25 quarters with a position, this lens beat the S&P 500 in 13, by +1.1% a quarter on average. That could easily be chance. One company is a small sample: the results across all companies are the better guide.

PositionsQuartersBeat the S&P 500Average vs S&P 500, a quarterTypical (median), a quarterA yearConfidence (t)Evidence
Longs 22 45.5% +0.4% −0.8% −1.7% 0.13 No reliable evidence
Shorts 3 100.0% +6.5% +5.7% +28.7% 3.80 Too few quarters
All positions 25 52.0% +1.1% +0.8% +1.5% 0.46 No reliable evidence

Each position is measured against the S&P 500 over the same quarter: a long earns the stock's return minus the index's, a short the index's minus the stock's. "A year" compounds the per-quarter results. Evidence: strong at a t-statistic of 2 or more, some from 1.5; "worse" when the result is that far below zero; one company's history is a small sample, so read these alongside the results across all companies.

Every quarter (43)
FromPrice paidGrowth the P/E impliesGrowth our model assumesPositionAIGS&P 500
September 30, 2026 (open) $74.42 -1.7% 6.9% No position +11.1% −0.8%
June 30, 2026 $74.53 -2.5% 2.3% No position +0.5% +2.4%
March 31, 2026 $75.25 -1.9% 2.0% No position −0.3% +15.1%
December 31, 2025 $85.55 -0.1% 4.0% No position −11.5% −4.4%
September 30, 2025 $78.54 -0.7% 4.0% No position +9.5% +2.7%
June 30, 2024 $74.24 -5.7% 6.7% Long −0.8% +5.8%
March 31, 2024 $78.17 0.5% 2.0% No position −4.5% +4.4%
December 31, 2023 $67.75 -3.8% 4.0% No position +15.9% +10.4%
September 30, 2023 $60.60 -8.2% 4.0% Long +12.4% +11.6%
June 30, 2023 $57.54 -12.7% 4.0% Long +6.0% −3.2%
March 31, 2023 $50.36 -23.7% 4.0% Long +15.0% +8.7%
December 31, 2022 $63.24 -25.3% 8.8% Long −19.8% +7.5%
September 30, 2022 $47.48 -28.3% 9.9% Long +33.9% +7.6%
June 30, 2022 $51.13 -22.5% 8.8% Long −6.6% −4.9%
March 31, 2022 $62.77 -18.1% 8.6% Long −18.0% −16.1%
December 31, 2021 $56.86 -8.9% 2.0% Long +11.0% −4.6%
September 30, 2021 $54.89 -4.5% 2.0% No position +4.2% +11.1%
June 30, 2020 $31.18 -14.9% 3.3% Long −10.7% +9.0%
March 31, 2020 $24.25 -14.0% 2.0% Long +29.9% +20.2%
December 31, 2019 $51.33 9.6% 2.3% No position −52.2% −19.4%
June 30, 2017 $62.52 39.1% 2.0% Short −1.3% +4.4%
December 31, 2016 $65.31 50.2% 4.0% Short −3.9% +5.9%
March 31, 2016 $54.05 12.6% 2.0% Short −1.6% +2.5%
December 31, 2015 $61.97 2.3% 2.0% No position −12.2% +1.3%
September 30, 2015 $56.82 -5.2% 2.0% No position +9.6% +7.0%
June 30, 2015 $61.82 -6.3% 2.0% No position −7.7% −6.4%
March 31, 2015 $54.79 -6.2% 2.0% No position +13.1% +0.2%
December 31, 2014 $56.01 -8.3% 2.0% Long −2.0% +0.9%
September 30, 2014 $54.02 -8.6% 2.0% Long +3.9% +4.9%
June 30, 2014 $54.58 -7.6% 2.0% No position −0.8% +1.1%
March 31, 2014 $50.01 -10.2% 2.0% Long +9.4% +5.2%
December 31, 2013 $51.05 8.5% 2.0% No position −1.8% +1.7%
September 30, 2013 $48.63 9.5% 4.0% No position +5.2% +10.5%
June 30, 2013 $44.70 10.6% 4.6% No position +9.0% +5.2%
March 31, 2013 $38.82 2.1% 7.2% No position +15.2% +2.9%
December 31, 2012 $35.30 -30.0%* 13.0% Long +10.0% +10.5%
September 30, 2012 $32.79 -30.0%* 4.0% Long +7.7% −0.4%
June 30, 2012 $32.09 -29.5% 4.0% Long +2.2% +6.3%
March 31, 2012 $30.83 -28.4% 4.0% Long +4.1% −2.8%
December 31, 2011 $23.20 -21.2% 4.0% Long +32.9% +12.7%
September 30, 2011 $21.95 -25.1% 2.0% Long +5.7% +11.6%
June 30, 2011 $29.32 -14.7% 2.0% Long −25.1% −13.8%
March 31, 2011 $35.14 -30.0%* 2.7% Long −16.6% +0.0%

Price paid: the closing price that day as traded, before any later share split. * At the edge of the range we solve for.

How the test works

At each quarter end since March 2010 we rebuild the models from American International Group's quarters ending at least 90 days earlier (and no more than 200 days before that), using the figures as later filed, including any restatement, and value them at that day's close, adjusted for later share splits and spin-offs so that price and share count are on the same basis. A wide enough gap is a long or a short for one quarter (growth 10 points; margin and return on equity 5 points; a PEG under 0.75 or over 3), measured on total return against the S&P 500. The rules were set before the test. No trading or borrowing costs; today's list of companies. Not investment advice. All companies and the results across them.

Compare with peers

Head to head: AIG vs SLFAIG vs LAIG vs AIZ

More: Multi-line Insurance stocks compared, Financials sector, rankings of US companies

Figures from American International Group's SEC filings (10-K and 10-Q), retrieved October 20, 2026. How we read and check them: methodology and data sources. Not investment advice. Back to American International Group.