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Alumis Inc. (ALMS) stock

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NASDAQ: ALMS Nasdaq Biotechnology Next results ~November 12, 2026

Alumis Inc. is a US-listed company in the biotechnology industry. Its financial year ends in December.

Stock price today

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Third-party market data · may be delayed

Model estimate per share

~$4.0

Growth cash-flow model

Base case. Range ~$3.5–$4.5. Revenue for this year and next from analysts' consensus, then growth fading to 2.5%; the operating margin moving to profitable peers'; investment needed per dollar of growth from peers; reduced by a failure probability.

Price vs value

No Buy/Hold/Sell rating is issued: limited reported history: available models are shown without a Buy/Hold/Sell rating.

Alumis Inc. valuation: adjust assumptions and compare models →

Who’s trading

What company insiders, investment funds and members of Congress have been doing with the stock, from their own filings.

  • Insiders6 buying, 7 selling39 purchases and 9 sales by directors and officers, last 12 monthsInsider trades
  • Funds101 adding, 85 cuttingOf 40 active managers that changed their stake, 18 added; quarter to June 30, 2026Fund buyers and sellers

The Fundamentalytics view

Next results ~November 12, 2026 (estimated)

Current signal Free cash flow diverging from earnings: TTM free cash flow fell 1.4% while net income fell 92.9%: a 92pp divergence.

Assembled from SEC-filed figures — the full workings are on this page and in our methodology. Observations, not recommendations.

Highlights

How we pick these

Strengths

  • Net cash. Cash exceeds long-term debt by $0.1bn.

Things to watch

  • Loss-making. Operating margin is -6204.4%: costs exceed revenue.
  • Burning cash. Free cash flow was -4755.3% of revenue over the last 12 months.
  • Heavy stock-based pay. Stock pay equals 601.6% of revenue: a real cost that cash-flow figures leave out.
  • High sales multiple. The shares trade at 97 times revenue while operating margins remain thin.
  • Volatile shares. Over the past year the shares showed annualised volatility of 136% and a beta of 1.8 against the S&P 500.
  • Heavily shorted. 14.3% of the shares available to trade are sold short (4.2 days of average volume to cover).

Latest results: FY2026 Q2

Filed August 13, 2026
Earnings per share
-$0.79 against an average estimate of -$0.71: missed by 11.3%
Revenue
$2m, down 37.7% on a year earlier
Share reaction
-0.9% in the first session after the results on August 13, 2026, against +0.5% for the S&P 500
Next report
November 12, 2026; average EPS estimate -$0.75

Alumis' figures from its SEC filings and results release; estimates are the analysts' average. Not a recommendation.

Price chart

  • 1 day-5.2%
  • 1 week-2.0%
  • 1 month-6.9%
  • This year-34.6%
  • 1 year+34.3%
  • S&P 500 this year+11.2%

Closing prices to 2026-11-02. Price change only, dividends excluded.

Loading chart…

Third-party market data · may be delayed

At a glance

Trailing twelve months, from SEC filings

Profitability

Revenue (TTM)
$7.4M
Operating margin
-6204.4%
Net margin
-5933.5%
EPS (TTM, diluted)
$-3.90

Cash

Free cash flow (TTM)
-$352M
FCF margin
-4755.3%
Stock pay % of revenue
601.6%

Earnings

Last results
August 13, 2026

News & updates

Updated October 31, 2026

Company announcements, filed results and changes that matter to shareholders.

  1. Insider trade
  2. Insider trade
  3. Insider trade
  4. Announcement
  5. Results
  6. Announcement

Refreshed hourly when new source data is available. Summaries are checked against company releases and SEC filings. Company announcement headlines are labelled when a checked summary is unavailable.

Valuation

Alumis Inc. valuation models and calculator

Fundamentalytics rating

model v1.6 · 2026-11-03

Not rated: limited reported history: available models are shown without a Buy/Hold/Sell rating.

Valuation models

We value Alumis Inc. as an operating company, with every model that fits that kind of business. Cost of equity 8.2%: the 10-year Treasury yield (4.9%) plus a beta of 0.72 times a 4.5% equity risk premium.

Value per share by model
Model Value per share In the combined value?
Growth cash-flow model Revenue for this year and next from analysts' consensus, then growth fading to 2.5%; the operating margin moving to profitable peers'; investment needed per dollar of growth from peers; reduced by a failure probability. For young or fast-growing companies. The starting margin is normalized to between -100% and 60%; net margin is a proxy when operating income is not tagged. Uses analysts' consensus estimates (third-party data), not our forecasts. ~$4.0 ~$3.5–$4.5 Primary model, counts double
Price-to-earnings vs peers Earnings per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) price-to-earnings. — Does not apply: no positive earnings in the latest twelve months
Residual income Book value plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, fading over ten years. — Does not apply: the model gives no positive value
Justified price-to-book Book value times (return on equity - growth) / (cost of equity - growth): steady-state returns. — Does not apply: return on equity is not positive
Forward price-to-sales vs peers Next year's consensus sales per share times peers' typical forward price-to-sales; only when earnings are negative. Uses analysts' consensus estimates (third-party data), not our forecasts. ~$0.6 ~$0.6–$2.3 Left out: out of range vs price (0.09x)
Revenue-to-maturity model Revenue grown to maturity with the cash margin moving to the industry's; for companies not yet profitable. — Does not apply: revenue and margins don't support a positive value
Combined value Weighted average of the models that apply: the primary model (growth cash-flow model) counts double. Models more than 5x or less than 0.2x the share price, or more than 3x away from the other models' median, are left out. ~$4.0 ~$3.5–$4.5 1 model

Different models fail in different ways, so where several apply we average them rather than trust one. Peer-based models compare Alumis Inc. with Biotechnology in our coverage, using third-party market data. Model values are estimates under stated assumptions, updated as new filings arrive; not price targets or investment advice. How each model works.

Valuation multiples over time Market data may be delayed

At fiscal year end 2025Now
Share price$9.76$6.38
Market value$830m$719m
+ Net debt (− = net cash)−$90m−$64m
Enterprise value$740m$655m
Multiples
Price / sales 34.5x97.2x
Price / earnings ——
Price / free cash flow ——
EV / EBITDA ——

Market value uses the period's diluted share count; figures for each fiscal year use that year's results and the price at year end. "Now" uses today's price and the last twelve months.

Moat

Not assessed: fewer than five years of comparable figures in the filings. AI disruption exposure for this industry: Medium.

A rules-based reading of reported figures, not a forecast and not investment advice. How the score is built: methodology.

Forecasts and guidance

Next results: November 12, 2026, after the close. Analysts expect revenue of $2m and EPS of −$0.75 (range −$0.80 to −$0.70) for the quarter.

Analysts' consensus

Fiscal yearEPSGrowthRevenueGrowth
Current −$3.32 +28% $6m −74%
Next −$2.87 +14% $24m +289%

How the EPS forecast has moved

The consensus EPS forecast for the current fiscal year is +14.4% on 90 days ago. In the last 30 days, 0 analysts raised Alumis Inc.'s forecast and 3 cut it.

Consensus EPS forecast Alumis Inc., last 90 days
−$4.00 −$3.00 −$2.00 −$1.00 $0.00 90 days ago 60 days ago 30 days ago 7 days ago Now Current fiscal year, 90 days ago: −$2.90 Current fiscal year, 60 days ago: −$2.90 Current fiscal year, 30 days ago: −$3.26 Current fiscal year, 7 days ago: −$3.32 Current fiscal year, Now: −$3.32 −$3.32 Next fiscal year, 90 days ago: −$2.95 Next fiscal year, 60 days ago: −$2.95 Next fiscal year, 30 days ago: −$2.87 Next fiscal year, 7 days ago: −$2.87 Next fiscal year, Now: −$2.87 −$2.87

Average of analysts' published estimates (third-party data).

View chart data
Period Current fiscal yearNext fiscal year
90 days ago −$2.90−$2.95
60 days ago −$2.90−$2.95
30 days ago −$3.26−$2.87
7 days ago −$3.32−$2.87
Now −$3.32−$2.87

Earnings against estimates

Quarter toEstimateActualSurprise
Jun 2026 −$0.71 −$0.79 −11.3%
Mar 2026 −$0.83 −$0.74 +10.5%
Dec 2025 −$0.98 −$0.25 +74.2%
Sept 2025 −$1.00 −$1.06 −6.0%

Adjusted EPS as companies report it, against the average analyst estimate.

Management guidance

Earnings release, August 13, 2026

No numeric guidance in Alumis Inc.'s latest earnings release (filed August 13, 2026). Some companies give their outlook only on the earnings call.

Analyst recommendations

10 analysts, Oct 2026
Buy990%
Hold110%
Sell00%

Monthly trend

  1. Oct 202618110
  2. Sep 202618110
  3. Aug 202618110
  4. Jul 202618110

Counts of recommendations published by analysts covering Alumis Inc., by month. Source: Aggregated broker recommendations (third-party data). Aggregated counts only: we do not reproduce any firm's recommendation or price target, and these are not Fundamentalytics ratings.

Positioning

Short interest
14.3%
of tradable shares
Days to cover
4.15
at average volume
Short interest, 1 month
+76%
to October 15, 2026
Held by institutions
93%
of shares
Held by insiders
0.5%
of shares
Employees
237
full time

Consensus figures average analysts' published estimates (third-party data); guidance is the company's own. Neither is our forecast. Short interest is reported twice a month and lags. Market data may be delayed.

This section is general information, not investment advice or a personal recommendation, and it does not take account of your objectives or circumstances. Forecasts and guidance are estimates, not promises: companies miss their own guidance and analysts' figures are often revised. Prices can fall as well as rise, and you can lose money. See our disclaimer.

Share-price performance

Market data may be delayed

Return and risk by year

Calendar year 20252026 to date
Return
ALMS+24%−35%
Industry peers (median)−5%−26%
S&P 500+18%+11%
Months that ended higher
ALMS50%46%
S&P 50075%46%
Largest fall from a high during the year
ALMS−72%−80%
S&P 500−19%−9%

Worst fall since June 28, 2024: 80% from July 9, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Getting back needed a 400% gain, and the shares have not yet recovered.

Price behaviour

52-week range
$4.55 – $30.30
From 52-week high
−78.9%
vs 50-day average
−32.9%
vs 200-day average
−70.1%
Volatility (1 year)
136%
Beta vs S&P 500
1.78

Volatility is the annualised standard deviation of daily returns. Beta 1.5 means the shares typically moved 1.5% for each 1% move in the S&P 500 over the past year. Prices to November 2, 2026.

Share price after results

Next day
4 up, 7 down
typical move ±10.6%
After a week
6 up, 5 down
typical move ±14.4%
After a month
3 up, 8 down
typical move ±31.2%
Results releasedNext dayS&P 500 next day5 days21 days
August 13, 2026 −0.9% +0.5% −10.5% −63.9%
May 14, 2026 −8.0% −0.4% −10.8% −7.5%
March 19, 2026 −1.4% −1.7% +3.5% −2.8%
January 9, 2026 +16.0% +0.8% +31.2% +46.3%
November 13, 2025 +5.3% −1.7% +32.1% +115.8%
August 13, 2025 −1.6% +0.4% −1.1% −2.0%
May 14, 2025 +20.0% +0.6% +7.2% −29.6%
March 19, 2025 −20.3% +0.8% +9.8% +11.6%
February 6, 2025 −20.5% −0.6% −28.5% −32.0%
November 13, 2024 −17.1% −0.6% −15.1% −26.1%
August 13, 2024 +6.0% +2.0% +8.4% −6.1%

From the close before the release date to the close 1, 5 and 21 trading days after it, so releases before the open and after the close are both captured. Past moves don't predict future ones.

Fundamentals

Data: SEC EDGAR XBRL company facts (as filed in 10-K/10-Q); forms 10-K, 10-Q. Generated November 3, 2026. Definitions in our methodology.

Financial statements

US$ millions unless shown otherwise. Fiscal years, plus the last twelve months (LTM) when newer.

Fiscal year 2025 Dec 2025 LTM Jun 2026
Income
Revenue 24 7
EBITDA −450 −456
Operating income −454 −459
Net income −243 −439
Diluted EPS −$2.86 −$3.90
Margins
EBITDA margin <−999% <−999%
Operating margin <−999% <−999%
Net margin <−999% <−999%
Free-cash-flow margin <−999% <−999%
Cash flow
Cash from operations −370 −351
Capital spending 1 0
Free cash flow −370 −352
Stock-based pay 44 45
Free cash flow after stock pay −414 −396
Balance sheet
Cash 90 64
Total debt 0 0
Net debt (negative = net cash) −90 −64
Diluted shares 85m 113m
Returned to shareholders
Buybacks 0 —
Total returned 0 —

Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL company facts (US and foreign periodic filings); column headings link to the filing. EBITDA is operating income plus depreciation and amortisation. Free cash flow is cash from operations minus capital spending. Growth is left blank when last year's figure was a loss or under 2% of revenue. Share counts and EPS are restated for stock splits. A dash means the company didn't report the figure.

Financial health

2 of 2 checks passed · June 30, 2026
What it owns · $561m
Short-term assets $514mLonger-term assets $47m
What it owes, and who funded it · $561m
Short-term liabilities $76mLonger-term liabilities $32mShareholders' equity $452m
  • Short-term assets cover short-term liabilities $514m of assets due within a year against $76m of liabilities due within a year.
  • Short-term assets cover long-term liabilities $514m short-term assets against $32m of longer-dated liabilities.
  • More cash than debt Cash or debt not separately reported. Not assessable.
  • Debt below 40% of shareholders' equity Equity or debt not reported. Not assessable.
  • Debt burden no higher than five years ago Five-year comparison not available. Not assessable.
  • A year's operating cash flow covers at least 20% of debt Cash flow or debt not reported. Not assessable.
  • Operating profit covers interest at least five times over Interest not separately reported. Not assessable.

From Alumis Inc.'s latest balance sheet as filed. Checks are fixed, documented rules (methodology), counted only where the company reports the figures — a dot means the filing doesn't break the item out. Descriptions of reported data, not advice.

Dividends, buybacks and capital spending

Buybacks, last 3 fiscal years
$87,000
R&D spending
4697.2%
of revenue

Competitors: side by side with peers

Closest by revenue in biotechnology
Last 12 months unless stated ALMS EVAX ROIV ADAG TCRX COYA Median
Revenue, last 12 months $7m $8m $8m $8m $7m $8m $55m
Revenue growth, last 12 months — 125.1% −67.6% >999% 2.2% >999% 12.6%
Revenue growth, 3-year average — — −46.4% — −24.3% — 13.7%
Revenue growth, latest quarter −37.7% — −33.5% — −65.8% 49.0% 10.2%
Operating margin <−999% −122.7% <−999% −279.5% <−999% −288.7% −191.1%
Operating margin, 3-year average — — −102.3% — <−999% <−999% −363.5%
Net margin <−999% −102.4% <−999% −229.6% <−999% −270.2% −172.8%
Cash from operations / revenue <−999% −88.0% <−999% −204.1% <−999% −196.1% −168.8%
Free-cash-flow margin <−999% −88.2% <−999% −204.3% <−999% −196.3% −168.1%
Free-cash-flow margin, 3-year average — — <−999% — <−999% <−999% −310.0%
Stock pay / revenue 601.6% 4.1% >999% 48.8% 138.4% 66.3% 20.7%
Change in share count — 497.3% 0.6% 4.8% 4.1% 22.4% 8.2%

Median of all 185 companies we cover in biotechnology. Shaded: best of the six on that line (lowest for stock pay and share-count growth). 3-year figures average the last three 12-month periods; 3-year growth is compound annual. Source: SEC filings.

Where the revenue comes from

Fiscal year to December 31, 2025
Products and services
Line of business Revenue Share YoY
Licenses $17.4M 72.3% —
Collaboration Revenue $6.7M 27.7% —

From Alumis Inc.'s 10-K filed March 19, 2026, as tagged in the filing. View filing. Indented rows are part of the line above; their share is of that line. In the bars, the faint bar behind is the year before.

Who owns it

Funds buying and selling
Reported value
$3.3B
Institutions reporting
198
Shares held vs prior quarter
▲ 2.9%
Positions opened / closed
28 / 24

Top buyers and sellers, Q2 2026: 101 institutions bought and 85 sold ; the biggest buyer was FMR LLC (+5.8M shares) and the biggest seller UBS Group AG (−2.1M). See which funds bought and sold →

Largest reported holders, June 30, 2026
Manager Value Shares Share of 13F value Shares QoQ
Ayurmaya Capital Management Company, LP $426M 15.1M 12.8% 0.0%
Blackrock, Inc. $231M 8.2M 7.0% ▲ 14.6%
FMR LLC $190M 6.8M 5.7% ▲ 595.1%
Deep Track Capital, LP $179M 6.3M 5.4% ▼ 6.3%
Samsara Biocapital, LLC $179M 6.3M 5.4% 0.0%
Foresite Capital Management V, LLC $166M 5.9M 5.0% 0.0%
Price T Rowe Associates Inc $146M 5.2M 4.4% ▲ 58.2%
Venbio Partners LLC $127M 4.5M 3.8% 0.0%
Foresite Capital Management Vi LLC $120M 4.2M 3.6% 0.0%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC $119M 4.2M 3.6% ▲ 4.5%
Nextech Invest Ltd. $99.6M 3.5M 3.0% 0.0%
Cormorant Asset Management, LP $92.5M 3.3M 2.8% ▼ 16.8%

From Form 13F filings with the SEC ( quarterly data sets), as reported by each manager for June 30, 2026 and filed up to 45 days later. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M only, so this is not Alumis Inc.'s complete shareholder register. Values are as reported by the filers .

Insider trading activity

Full insider history and chart
Insider purchases History → $59.2M 39 trades by 6 insiders, last 12 months Insider sales History → $1.5M 9 trades by 7 insiders · 0% under pre-set plans
Net ▲ $57.7M net buying
Insider Date Trade Shares Price Value
Akkaraju Srinivas Director September 8, 2026 Sell 48,065 $10.55 $507,086
Akkaraju Srinivas Director September 8, 2026 Buy 273,290 $10.63 $2.9M
Akkaraju Srinivas Director September 8, 2026 Buy 273,291 $10.63 $2.9M
Akkaraju Srinivas Director September 8, 2026 Sell 48,066 $10.55 $507,096
Akkaraju Srinivas Director September 4, 2026 Buy 220,070 $11.17 $2.5M
Bradley Mark Christopher Chief Development Officer August 3, 2026 Sell 2,572 $26.37 $67,824
Drappa Jorn Chief Medical Officer August 3, 2026 Sell 2,447 $26.37 $64,527
Goldstein David M Chief Scientific Officer August 3, 2026 Sell 2,596 $26.37 $68,457
Hardiman Roy C. Chief Business & Strategy Ofcr August 3, 2026 Sell 2,692 $26.37 $70,988
Pangali Sanam Chief Legal Officer August 3, 2026 Sell 1,364 $26.37 $35,969
Schroer John R. Chief Financial Officer August 3, 2026 Sell 3,282 $26.37 $86,546
Pangali Sanam Chief Legal Officer July 6, 2026 Sell 5,000 $28.00 $140,000

From insiders' Form 4 filings with the SEC. Excludes awards, option exercises and shares withheld for tax. "Pre-set plan" means the filing marks the trade as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. See every insider trade since five years ago, on a price chart.

Earnings dates and SEC filings

Results announcements

  • August 13, 2026
  • May 14, 2026
  • March 19, 2026
  • January 9, 2026
  • November 13, 2025
  • August 13, 2025

Recent SEC filings

Data status

When each part of this page on Alumis Inc. was last updated.

DataLast updatedSource
Share priceExchange closing prices
Financial statementsSEC 10-K and 10-Q filings
News and updatesCompany releases and SEC 8-K filings
Analyst estimatesAggregated analyst estimates
Valuation and scoresOur models, from the filed figures

How we build and check these figures: methodology and data sources.

Alumis Inc. in brief

What does Alumis Inc. do?
Alumis Inc. is a US-listed company in the biotechnology industry. Its financial year ends in December.
What is Alumis Inc.'s stock ticker?
Alumis Inc. trades under the ticker ALMS on Nasdaq. This page brings together its financial statements, valuation models, ownership and recent company updates.
What is Alumis Inc.'s free cash flow?
Alumis Inc.'s free-cash-flow margin is -4755.3% of revenue over the trailing twelve months.
Who are Alumis Inc.'s largest institutional shareholders?
By value reported in 13F filings for June 30, 2026, the largest reported holders are Ayurmaya Capital Management Company, LP, Blackrock, Inc. and FMR LLC. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M, filed up to 45 days after quarter end.
What is Alumis Inc.'s market cap?
On November 2, 2026, Alumis Inc.'s market capitalisation was about $719M and net debt of -$63.7M. Market figures come from third-party market data and may be delayed.
Who are Alumis Inc.'s competitors?
In our Biotechnology peer group, the companies closest to Alumis Inc. are Evaxion A/s, Roivant Sciences Ltd., Adagene Inc., Tscan Therapeutics, Inc. and Coya Therapeutics, Inc. The side-by-side comparison below sets their revenue, margins and growth against Alumis Inc.'s.
Are insiders buying or selling Alumis Inc. stock?
Over the last 12 months, Alumis Inc.'s directors and officers reported 39 open-market purchases and 9 sales on Form 4. The insider trading page charts every trade.
When is Alumis Inc.'s next earnings date?
Around November 12, 2026, estimated from the spacing of its past results announcements (8-K filings). That is an estimate, not a confirmed date — Alumis Inc. announces its own schedule.