Asml Holding NV is a US-listed company in the semiconductor materials & equipment industry. Its financial year ends in December.
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~$1100
Cash-flow model
Base case. Range ~$880–$1500 across our lower- and higher-growth cases (14.5%–24.5% a year).
Overvalued
The price is above our entire value range; our base value is 25% below it.
Price used: $1526.14, November 2, 2026
Asml Holding NV valuation: adjust assumptions and compare models →
What company insiders, investment funds and members of Congress have been doing with the stock, from their own filings.
Revenue for the twelve months was $36.9bn, up 20.8% on a year earlier, faster than the 2.6% growth a quarter earlier. Free-cash-flow margin fell to 33.8% from 53.2% a year earlier. Against its peers on growth, profitability, cash generation and balance sheet, it grades A. It passes 7 of our 7 financial-health checks. Our cash-flow model value is $1,143 a share, against a share price of $1,566.
Written from the company's filings and our models when each quarter's report arrives. Figures in older notes are as published at the time. Not investment advice.
Asml Holding NV's trailing-twelve-month revenue grew 20.8% year on year, with a free-cash-flow margin of 33.8%. Where it stands out: free-cash-flow margin of 33.8% ranks 1 of 20 semiconductor materials & equipment companies we cover.
Our discounted-cash-flow model values the business at ~$1100 per share in the base case (~$880–$1500 across growth scenarios) — model values under stated assumptions, not a price target.
Current signal Revenue growth accelerating: TTM revenue growth rose to 20.8% (+18.2pp vs the prior quarter).
Assembled from SEC-filed figures — the full workings are on this page and in our methodology. Observations, not recommendations.
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Company announcements, filed results and changes that matter to shareholders.
Asml Holding NV is drawing far more news coverage than usual. Its own filings show twelve-month revenue of $36.9 billion, up 20.8% on the year before.
The share price implies about 25.6% a year of cash-flow growth for five years.That is faster than the 18.3% a year revenue growth Asml Holding NV has delivered.
Read with care: free cash flow has swung sharply in the past year (often a one-off tax, legal or working-capital item), so the cash-flow base behind this reading may be unusually low or high.
Our cash-flow model with every input fixed except growth over the next five years, solved for the growth at which the model value equals the share price ($1567.57, Nov 3, 2026). Cash-flow growth then fades to 2.5% a year; discount rate 8.5%. Delivered figures are revenue growth from SEC filings. This is a model exercise, not investment advice or a forecast of the share price. All companies
Our value per share comes from a discounted-cash-flow model of Asml Holding NV's free cash flow after stock-based pay ( $9.7B, FY2025 Q4 TTM, with after-tax interest added back): growth for five years as below (the first two years from forecasts, guidance and the company's record), fading to 2.5%, discounted at 8.5%, then cash added and debt and other claims subtracted. These are model values under stated assumptions, not price targets or recommendations.
We value Asml Holding NV as an operating company, with every model that fits that kind of business. Cost of equity 12.1%: the 10-year Treasury yield (4.9%) plus a beta of 1.59 times a 4.5% equity risk premium.
| Model | Value per share | In the combined value? |
|---|---|---|
| Cash-flow model (DCF) Free cash flow to the firm (after stock pay, with after-tax interest added back), grown then faded to 2.5%, discounted at 8.5% as the firm rate, less debt and other claims. | ~$1100 ~$880–$1500 | Primary model, counts double |
| Price-to-earnings vs peers Earnings per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) price-to-earnings. | ~$960 ~$880–$1100 | Included |
| Residual income Book value plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, fading over ten years. | — | Does not apply: return on equity above 40%: buybacks or intangibles make book value too small an anchor |
| Justified price-to-book Book value times (return on equity - growth) / (cost of equity - growth): steady-state returns. | ~$220 ~$200–$240 | Left out: out of range vs price (0.14x) |
| Combined value Weighted average of the models that apply: the primary model (cash-flow model (dcf)) counts double. Models more than 5x or less than 0.2x the share price, or more than 3x away from the other models' median, are left out. | ~$1100 ~$960–$1100 | 2 models |
Different models fail in different ways, so where several apply we average them rather than trust one. Peer-based models compare Asml Holding NV with Semiconductor Materials & Equipment in our coverage, using third-party market data. Model values are estimates under stated assumptions, updated as new filings arrive; not price targets or investment advice. How each model works.
| Discount rate ↓ / growth → | −5% growth | 0% growth | 5% growth | 10% growth | 15% growth | 20% growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7% | $391 | $522 | $694 | $921 | $1218 | $1601 |
| 8.5% | $306 | $400 | $525 | $687 | $899 | $1171 |
| 10% | $254 | $327 | $423 | $548 | $708 | $915 |
Moderate moat
How hard Asml Holding NV's competitive advantage looks for rivals to wear away, judged from 5 years of its own filings: returns on capital, pricing power, profit durability, cash conversion and discipline.
Cash operating profit has been a median 11.2% of total assets over 5 years.
Gross margin has been a median 44.9%, moving by 8.9 percentage points (standard deviation) across 5 years.
Operating margin has been a median 27.2%; its worst year was -10.2%.
Free cash flow was positive in 4 of 5 years, at a median 16.3% of revenue.
AI disruption exposure: Low. In this industry, the business rests on physical assets, regulated networks or products AI itself depends on.
Next results: January 27, 2027, before the open.
No analyst estimates are published for Asml Holding NV: too few analysts cover it.
| Quarter to | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sept 2026 | $10.76 | $11.82 | +9.9% |
| Jun 2026 | $6.95 | $7.58 | +9.1% |
| Mar 2026 | $6.62 | $7.15 | +8.0% |
| Dec 2025 | $7.55 | $7.34 | −2.7% |
Adjusted EPS as companies report it, against the average analyst estimate.
How Asml Holding NV’s listed options are priced, and three ways to use them that follow from our valuation. Quotes are delayed, read November 2, 2026. Check the live chain at your broker before trading.
There is not enough price history to measure realised volatility.
Our rule for “rich”: implied at least 1.2× 60-day realised (beyond measurement noise), above 1-year realised (not just a calm spell), and in the top 20% of our coverage that day. Never with results inside the option’s life. These are our conventions, built on research showing option prices usually imply more movement than follows, most when the gap is wide. How we judge this.
Not offered: rated Sell.
We suggest selling a put only on well-rated companies, at a strike where the price you would pay if assigned (strike less premium) is at or below our fair value.
Own 100 shares, sell the $1,740 call expiring December 18, 2026 (46 days) for $27.70 a share — $2,770 per contract.
Previous session · Bid $27.70, ask $32.40, quoted Mon 2 Nov, 17:15 New York time with ASML at $1,535.96. Option prices move with the shares: check the live chain at your broker before trading.
Own the shares, buy the $1,400 put and sell the $1,740 call, both expiring December 18, 2026 (46 days).
Offered because the shares trade at or above our fair value of $1,100: a way to hold on with a floor under the price, paid for by giving up upside the model does not expect. Strikes near 25-delta; the put at its ask and the call at its bid. Protection has a cost over time: research on protective puts finds they have usually lowered returns.
General research, not personal advice. Options can lose you more than you expect and are not suitable for everyone: put sellers can be made to buy shares that keep falling, call sellers give up gains above the strike, and results or news can move prices sharply. Chances shown are approximations from each option’s delta. Spreads, fees and early assignment are not modelled.
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 2, 2026.
| Period | Revenue (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY14 Q4 | $7.8B |
| FY15 Q4 | $7B |
| FY16 Q4 | $7.6B |
| FY17 Q4 | $10.1B |
| FY18 Q4 | $12.9B |
| FY19 Q4 | $13.2B |
| FY20 Q4 | $15.9B |
| FY21 Q4 | $22B |
| FY22 Q4 | $22.3B |
| FY23 Q4 | $29.8B |
| FY24 Q4 | $30.6B |
| FY25 Q4 | $36.9B |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 2, 2026.
| Period | Revenue growth, TTM YoY |
|---|---|
| FY14 Q4 | 11.8% |
| FY15 Q4 | -10.4% |
| FY16 Q4 | 9.1% |
| FY17 Q4 | 33.1% |
| FY18 Q4 | 27.7% |
| FY19 Q4 | 2.3% |
| FY20 Q4 | 20.5% |
| FY21 Q4 | 38.0% |
| FY22 Q4 | 1.3% |
| FY23 Q4 | 33.6% |
| FY24 Q4 | 2.6% |
| FY25 Q4 | 20.8% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 2, 2026.
| Period | Operating margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY14 Q4 | 21.9% |
| FY15 Q4 | 24.9% |
| FY16 Q4 | 25.6% |
| FY17 Q4 | 27.2% |
| FY18 Q4 | 27.1% |
| FY19 Q4 | 23.6% |
| FY20 Q4 | 29.0% |
| FY21 Q4 | 36.3% |
| FY22 Q4 | 30.7% |
| FY23 Q4 | 32.8% |
| FY24 Q4 | 31.9% |
| FY25 Q4 | 34.6% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 2, 2026.
| Period | FCF margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY14 Q4 | 11.3% |
| FY15 Q4 | 26.3% |
| FY16 Q4 | 19.5% |
| FY17 Q4 | 16.3% |
| FY18 Q4 | 22.5% |
| FY19 Q4 | 20.2% |
| FY20 Q4 | 25.9% |
| FY21 Q4 | 53.2% |
| FY22 Q4 | 33.9% |
| FY23 Q4 | 11.8% |
| FY24 Q4 | 32.1% |
| FY25 Q4 | 33.8% |
Each dollar Asml Holding NV took in during FY2025, followed through to profit: what it cost to make, what went on research and running the business, and what was left after tax.
| Revenue | $36.9B | |
|---|---|---|
| Other income | $363M | 1.0% of revenue |
| Cost of revenue | $17.4B | 47.2% of revenue |
| Gross profit | $19.5B | 52.8% of revenue |
| Research and development | $5.3B | 14.4% of revenue |
| Selling, general and admin | $1.4B | 3.9% of revenue |
| Operating income | $12.8B | 34.6% of revenue |
| Income tax | $2.3B | 6.2% of revenue |
| Net income | $10.9B | 29.4% of revenue |
| Fiscal year | 2009 Dec 2009 | 2010 Dec 2010 | 2011 Dec 2011 | 2012 Dec 2012 | 2013 Dec 2013 | 2014 Dec 2014 | 2015 Dec 2015 | 2016 Dec 2016 | 2017 Dec 2017 | 2018 Dec 2018 | 2019 Dec 2019 | 2020 Dec 2020 | 2021 Dec 2021 | 2022 Dec 2022 | 2023 Dec 2023 | 2024 Dec 2024 | 2025 Dec 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | |||||||||||||||||
| Revenue | 2.2 | 6.0 | 7.9 | 6.1 | 7.0 | 7.8 | 7.0 | 7.6 | 10.1 | 12.9 | 13.2 | 15.9 | 22.0 | 22.3 | 29.8 | 30.6 | 36.9 |
| Gross profit | 0.6 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 7.8 | 11.6 | 11.3 | 15.3 | 15.7 | 19.5 |
| EBITDA | −0.0 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 5.2 | 8.5 | 7.5 | 10.6 | 10.8 | 13.9 |
| Operating income | −0.2 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 8.0 | 6.8 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 12.8 |
| Net income | −0.2 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 7.0 | 5.9 | 8.5 | 8.2 | 10.9 |
| Diluted EPS | −$0.49 | $3.09 | $4.76 | $3.45 | $3.11 | $3.62 | $3.56 | $4.03 | $5.41 | $7.18 | $6.88 | $9.68 | $16.96 | $14.88 | $21.51 | $20.82 | $27.94 |
| Growth (year on year) | |||||||||||||||||
| Revenue | −48.9% | +168.8% | +31.7% | −22.7% | +14.5% | +11.8% | −10.4% | +9.1% | +33.1% | +27.7% | +2.3% | +20.5% | +38.0% | +1.3% | +33.6% | +2.6% | +20.8% |
| EBITDA | −105.0% | — | +35.3% | −31.4% | −1.8% | +20.5% | +1.1% | +13.4% | +37.9% | +24.0% | −9.4% | +42.9% | +64.8% | −12.6% | +41.8% | +1.7% | +29.6% |
| Operating income | −153.4% | — | +37.9% | −34.9% | −6.4% | +22.5% | +1.9% | +12.1% | +41.6% | +27.1% | −10.8% | +48.0% | +72.7% | −14.2% | +42.8% | −0.2% | +30.9% |
| Net income | −144.3% | — | +50.8% | −27.9% | −8.5% | +18.0% | −3.3% | +12.1% | +35.4% | +31.1% | −5.2% | +39.7% | +71.6% | −14.9% | +43.1% | −3.4% | +32.6% |
| Diluted EPS | −144.8% | — | +54.2% | −27.7% | −9.8% | +16.4% | −1.5% | +13.1% | +34.3% | +32.7% | −4.2% | +40.5% | +75.3% | −12.3% | +44.5% | −3.2% | +34.2% |
| Margins | |||||||||||||||||
| Gross margin | 28.7% | 43.4% | 43.3% | 42.4% | 41.5% | 44.3% | 46.1% | 45.7% | 44.9% | 46.0% | 44.7% | 48.6% | 52.7% | 50.5% | 51.3% | 51.3% | 52.8% |
| EBITDA margin | −1.3% | 31.1% | 32.0% | 28.4% | 24.3% | 26.2% | 29.6% | 30.8% | 31.9% | 31.0% | 27.4% | 32.5% | 38.8% | 33.5% | 35.5% | 35.2% | 37.7% |
| Operating margin | −10.2% | 27.7% | 29.0% | 24.4% | 20.0% | 21.9% | 24.9% | 25.6% | 27.2% | 27.1% | 23.6% | 29.0% | 36.3% | 30.7% | 32.8% | 31.9% | 34.6% |
| Net margin | −9.5% | 22.7% | 26.0% | 24.2% | 19.4% | 20.4% | 22.1% | 22.7% | 23.1% | 23.7% | 21.9% | 25.4% | 31.6% | 26.6% | 28.4% | 26.8% | 29.4% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | −0.4% | 18.0% | 31.3% | 11.2% | 16.1% | 11.4% | 26.3% | 19.6% | 16.5% | 22.8% | 21.2% | 26.2% | 53.4% | 34.0% | 11.9% | 32.2% | 33.9% |
| Cash flow | |||||||||||||||||
| Cash from operations | 0.1 | 1.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 5.3 | 12.8 | 8.9 | 5.9 | 12.1 | 14.3 |
| Capital spending | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.8 |
| Free cash flow | −0.0 | 1.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 11.8 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 9.8 | 12.5 |
| Stock-based pay | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | −0.0 | 1.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 4.1 | 11.6 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 9.7 | 12.3 |
| Balance sheet | |||||||||||||||||
| Cash | 1.5 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 7.4 | 7.9 | 7.8 | 7.7 | 13.2 | 15.2 |
| Total debt | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 5.2 |
| Net debt (negative = net cash) | −0.5 | −1.6 | −2.6 | −1.3 | −1.7 | −1.5 | −1.4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | −0.1 | −0.5 | −1.7 | −2.7 | −3.2 | −2.6 | −8.3 | −10.0 |
| Diluted shares | 433m | 439m | 429m | 427m | 433m | 440m | 433m | 428m | 432m | 426m | 422m | 419m | 410m | 398m | 394m | 394m | 389m |
| Returned to shareholders | |||||||||||||||||
| Dividends | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.9 |
| Buybacks | 0.0 | — | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 10.1 | 4.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 6.7 |
| Total returned | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 11.7 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 9.6 |
| Last 12 months unless stated | ASML | AMAT | LRCX | KLAC | TER | MKSI | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $36.9bn | $30.8bn | $26.1bn | $14.5bn | $5.0bn | $4.3bn | $994m |
| Revenue growth, last 12 months | 20.8% | 7.8% | 33.4% | 15.8% | 74.9% | 16.3% | 15.8% |
| Revenue growth, 3-year average | 74.4% | 5.1% | 18.2% | 12.6% | 22.2% | 4.2% | 7.8% |
| Revenue growth, latest quarter | — | 24.8% | 54.4% | 28.9% | 69.8% | 28.3% | 33.7% |
| Gross margin | 52.8% | 49.4% | 51.1% | 61.5% | 59.3% | 47.0% | 47.7% |
| Operating margin | 34.6% | 29.6% | 37.0% | 22.6% | 32.1% | 15.7% | 13.2% |
| Operating margin, 3-year average | 32.7% | 29.6% | 32.9% | 26.1% | 23.5% | 13.3% | 16.0% |
| Net margin | 29.4% | 30.1% | 32.3% | 36.2% | 27.5% | 10.1% | 10.9% |
| Cash from operations / revenue | 38.7% | 27.2% | 29.0% | 31.1% | 26.6% | 14.6% | 18.6% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 33.8% | 18.2% | 25.0% | 27.8% | 20.5% | 10.5% | 15.0% |
| Free-cash-flow margin, 3-year average | 34.4% | 21.0% | 28.1% | 29.8% | 17.7% | 12.2% | 11.9% |
| Stock pay / revenue | 0.6% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.4% |
| Change in share count | −1.2% | −2.0% | −1.9% | −4.5% | −2.2% | 3.3% | 0.8% |
| Measure | Company | Peer median | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth Growth | 20.8% | 15.8% | 8 of 20 |
| Change in growth rate Growth | +18.2pp | +7.5pp | 3 of 20 |
| Gross margin Profitability | 52.8% | 48.2% | 4 of 19 |
| Operating margin Profitability | 34.6% | 13.2% | 2 of 19 |
| Net margin Profitability | 29.4% | 11.1% | 5 of 20 |
| Free-cash-flow margin Cash generation | 33.8% | 17.5% | 1 of 20 |
| Stock pay as % of revenue Cash generation | 0.6% | 2.5% | 1 of 20 |
| Long-term debt as % of assets Balance sheet | 5.4% | 22.0% | 2 of 13 |
| Change in share count Balance sheet | -1.2% | 0.9% | 5 of 19 |
| Days sales outstanding Balance sheet | 35 days | 79 days | 2 of 16 |
Rank 1 = best in the group (for spending, debt and dilution, lower ranks first).
| Manager | Value | Shares | Share of 13F value | Shares QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FMR LLC | $10.9B | 5.5M | 7.3% | ▲ 74.0% |
| Fisher Asset Management, LLC | $9.4B | 4.7M | 6.3% | ▲ 3.0% |
| Capital World Investors | $7.4B | 3.7M | 4.9% | ▼ 0.2% |
| Invesco Ltd. | $6.2B | 3.1M | 4.2% | ▲ 5.7% |
| State Farm Mutual Automobile Insurance Co | $5.5B | 2.8M | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| Van Eck Associates Corp | $4.9B | 2.5M | 3.3% | ▲ 31.7% |
| Capital International Investors | $4.8B | 2.4M | 3.2% | ▲ 38.0% |
| Jpmorgan Chase & Co | $4.5B | 2.4M | 3.0% | ▲ 12.4% |
| Price T Rowe Associates Inc | $3.8B | 1.9M | 2.6% | ▲ 25.7% |
| Morgan Stanley | $3.6B | 1.8M | 2.4% | ▲ 0.2% |
| Bank Of America Corp | $3.3B | 1.7M | 2.2% | ▲ 6.5% |
| Arrowstreet Capital, Limited Partnership | $2.9B | 1.5M | 1.9% | ▼ 10.8% |
From Form 13F filings with the SEC ( quarterly data sets), as reported by each manager for June 30, 2026 and filed up to 45 days later. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M only, so this is not Asml Holding NV's complete shareholder register. Values are as reported by the filers ; 4 inconsistently scaled filing rows were excluded.
From insiders' Form 4 filings with the SEC. Excludes awards, option exercises and shares withheld for tax. "Pre-set plan" means the filing marks the trade as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. See every insider trade since five years ago, on a price chart.
In the last 12 months, 3 members of Congress disclosed 5 purchases and 1 sale of Asml Holding NV shares.
| Data | Last updated | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | Exchange closing prices | |
| News and updates | Company releases and SEC 8-K filings | |
| Analyst estimates | Aggregated analyst estimates | |
| Valuation and scores | Our models, from the filed figures |
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