Carlsmed, Inc. is a US-listed company in the health care equipment industry. Its financial year ends in December.
Loading chart…
Third-party market data · may be delayed
Under review: every model's value for Carlsmed, Inc. is far from the share price, which usually points to a data problem (a merger, a share-count change, a one-off) rather than a bargain or a bubble.
Under review: limited reported history: available models are shown without a Buy/Hold/Sell rating. We'll show the comparison once resolved.
Carlsmed, Inc. valuation: adjust assumptions and compare models →
What company insiders, investment funds and members of Congress have been doing with the stock, from their own filings.
Revenue for the twelve months to June 2026 was $63m. Free-cash-flow margin rose to -54.6% from -71.9% a year earlier. Operating margin widened to -61.1% from -64.5%. It passes 4 of our 6 financial-health checks.
Our model value for Carlsmed is under review, so past values are not shown until it is resolved.
Source: 10-Q filed August 5, 2026 on SEC EDGAR · Financials · Valuation
Written from the company's filings and our models when each quarter's report arrives. Figures in older notes are as published at the time. Not investment advice.
Carlsmed, Inc.'s trailing-twelve-month revenue grew 65.4% year on year, with a free-cash-flow margin of -54.6%.
Current signal Balance sheet growing far ahead of sales: Total assets grew 122% year over year while revenue grew 65% — the balance sheet is expanding 57 points faster than the business it supports.
Assembled from SEC-filed figures — the full workings are on this page and in our methodology. Observations, not recommendations.
Loading chart…
Third-party market data · may be delayed
Company announcements, filed results and changes that matter to shareholders.
The inputs used by the models below have passed source checks. Individual model values are available below and in the interactive valuator. Their differences are shown explicitly; the platform combined value and recommendation remain withheld.
We value Carlsmed, Inc. as an operating company, with every model that fits that kind of business. Cost of equity 9.5%: the 10-year Treasury yield (4.9%) plus a beta of 1 times a 4.5% equity risk premium.
| Model | Value per share | In the combined value? |
|---|---|---|
| Price-to-earnings vs peers Earnings per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) price-to-earnings. | — | Does not apply: This model is withheld pending its input or assumption review. |
| Residual income Book value plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, fading over ten years. | — | Does not apply: This model is withheld pending its input or assumption review. |
| Justified price-to-book Book value times (return on equity - growth) / (cost of equity - growth): steady-state returns. | — | Does not apply: This model is withheld pending its input or assumption review. |
| Revenue-to-maturity model Revenue grown to maturity with the cash margin moving to the industry's; for companies not yet profitable. | — | Does not apply: This model is withheld pending its input or assumption review. |
| Price-to-sales vs peers Sales per share times peers' typical price-to-sales; used only when earnings are negative. | ~$2.3 ~$2.7–$11 | Left out: out of range vs price (0.15x) |
| Combined value Individual source-checked model scenarios are available. The platform combined value and recommendation remain withheld. | — | Combined value withheld. Review the individual models and their assumptions. |
Different models fail in different ways, so where several apply we average them rather than trust one. Peer-based models compare Carlsmed, Inc. with Health Care Equipment in our coverage, using third-party market data. Model values are estimates under stated assumptions, updated as new filings arrive; not price targets or investment advice. How each model works.
| At fiscal year end | 2025 |
|---|---|
| Share price | $12.35 |
| Market value | $176m |
| + Net debt (− = net cash) | −$70m |
| Enterprise value | $105m |
| Multiples | |
| Price / sales | 3.5x |
| Price / earnings | — |
| Price / free cash flow | — |
| EV / EBITDA | — |
Not assessed: fewer than five years of comparable figures in the filings. AI disruption exposure for this industry: Low.
Next results: November 10, 2026, after the close. Analysts expect revenue of $19m and EPS of −$0.39 (range −$0.41 to −$0.36) for the quarter.
| Fiscal year | EPS | Growth | Revenue | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | −$1.41 | +28% | $77m | +52% |
| Next | −$1.38 | +2% | $108m | +41% |
The consensus EPS forecast for the current fiscal year is −3.8% on 90 days ago. In the last 30 days, 1 analyst raised Carlsmed, Inc.'s forecast and 1 cut it.
Average of analysts' published estimates (third-party data).
| Period | Current fiscal year | Next fiscal year |
|---|---|---|
| 90 days ago | −$1.47 | −$1.44 |
| 60 days ago | −$1.47 | −$1.44 |
| 30 days ago | −$1.47 | −$1.44 |
| 7 days ago | −$1.47 | −$1.44 |
| Now | −$1.41 | −$1.38 |
| Quarter to | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026 | −$0.40 | −$0.39 | +1.3% |
| Mar 2026 | −$0.40 | −$0.26 | +33.3% |
| Dec 2025 | −$0.43 | −$0.29 | +31.5% |
| Sept 2025 | −$0.49 | −$0.37 | +24.5% |
Adjusted EPS as companies report it, against the average analyst estimate.
| Calendar year | 2026 to date |
|---|---|
| Return | |
| CARL | +22% |
| Industry peers (median) | −15% |
| S&P 500 | +11% |
| Months that ended higher | |
| CARL | 64% |
| S&P 500 | 46% |
| Largest fall from a high during the year | |
| CARL | −39% |
| S&P 500 | −9% |
Worst fall since July 23, 2025: 48% from December 3, 2025 to April 29, 2026. Getting back needed a 92% gain, and the shares have not yet recovered.
| Results released | Next day | S&P 500 next day | 5 days | 21 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 5, 2026 | +2.0% | −0.4% | +2.2% | +15.6% |
| May 5, 2026 | +8.3% | +2.2% | +8.1% | +22.6% |
| February 25, 2026 | +11.5% | +0.3% | −0.5% | −24.5% |
| January 12, 2026 | +12.5% | 0.0% | −0.1% | −10.0% |
| November 6, 2025 | +12.9% | −1.0% | +5.1% | +1.7% |
| August 28, 2025 | −4.3% | −0.2% | −8.3% | −3.2% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 29, 2026.
| Period | Revenue (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY25 Q1 | $32.3M |
| FY25 Q2 | $38.3M |
| FY25 Q3 | $44.8M |
| FY25 Q4 | $50.5M |
| FY26 Q1 | $56.4M |
| FY26 Q2 | $63.3M |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 29, 2026.
| Period | Operating margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY25 Q1 | -76.0% |
| FY25 Q2 | -64.5% |
| FY25 Q3 | -58.0% |
| FY25 Q4 | -60.5% |
| FY26 Q1 | -60.5% |
| FY26 Q2 | -61.1% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 29, 2026.
| Period | FCF margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY25 Q2 | -71.9% |
| FY25 Q3 | -63.7% |
| FY25 Q4 | -58.6% |
| FY26 Q1 | -61.1% |
| FY26 Q2 | -54.6% |
| Fiscal year | 2024 Dec 2024 | 2025 Dec 2025 | LTM Jun 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Income | |||
| Revenue | 27 | 51 | 63 |
| Gross profit | 20 | 38 | 49 |
| EBITDA | −24 | −30 | −38 |
| Operating income | −24 | −31 | −39 |
| Net income | −24 | −30 | −36 |
| Diluted EPS | −$6.11 | −$2.12 | — |
| Growth (year on year) | |||
| Revenue | — | +85.9% | +65.4% |
| Margins | |||
| Gross margin | 73.8% | 75.3% | 76.6% |
| EBITDA margin | −88.3% | −60.0% | −60.5% |
| Operating margin | −88.8% | −60.5% | −61.1% |
| Net margin | −89.3% | −58.7% | −57.4% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | −94.4% | −58.6% | −54.6% |
| Cash flow | |||
| Cash from operations | −25 | −29 | −34 |
| Capital spending | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Free cash flow | −26 | −30 | −35 |
| Stock-based pay | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | −26 | −32 | −40 |
| Balance sheet | |||
| Cash | 40 | 86 | 46 |
| Total debt | 15 | 16 | 16 |
| Net debt (negative = net cash) | −25 | −70 | −31 |
| Diluted shares | 4m | 14m | — |
| Quarter | 2024 Q3 Sept 2024 | 2024 Q4 Dec 2024 | 2025 Q1 Mar 2025 | 2025 Q2 Jun 2025 | 2025 Q3 Sept 2025 | 2025 Q4 Dec 2025 | 2026 Q1 Mar 2026 | 2026 Q2 Jun 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | ||||||||
| Revenue | 7 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 15 | 16 | 19 |
| Gross profit | 5 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 15 |
| EBITDA | −8 | −5 | −6 | −6 | −9 | −9 | −9 | −11 |
| Operating income | −8 | −5 | −6 | −7 | −9 | −9 | −9 | −11 |
| Net income | −8 | −5 | −6 | −7 | −9 | −9 | −9 | −11 |
| Diluted EPS | −$2.06 | −$1.14 | −$1.47 | −$1.47 | −$0.40 | $0.03 | −$0.32 | −$0.39 |
| Growth (year on year) | ||||||||
| Revenue | — | — | — | +98.7% | +98.4% | +61.2% | +58.2% | +56.7% |
| Margins | ||||||||
| Gross margin | 72.8% | 74.7% | 74.9% | 73.4% | 75.9% | 76.5% | 77.1% | 76.8% |
| EBITDA margin | −117.5% | −49.5% | −55.7% | −53.0% | −68.3% | −60.8% | −56.9% | −57.7% |
| Operating margin | −118.0% | −49.9% | −56.1% | −53.8% | −69.1% | −61.4% | −57.6% | −58.3% |
| Net margin | −118.6% | −50.2% | −56.2% | −56.0% | −65.2% | −56.8% | −54.0% | −55.5% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | −115.8% | −45.3% | −80.9% | −61.0% | −65.9% | −35.6% | −81.2% | −39.5% |
| Cash flow | ||||||||
| Cash from operations | −8 | −4 | −8 | −7 | −8 | −5 | −13 | −7 |
| Capital spending | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Free cash flow | −8 | −4 | −8 | −7 | −9 | −5 | −13 | −7 |
| Stock-based pay | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | −8 | −4 | −8 | −8 | −9 | −6 | −15 | −10 |
| Last 12 months unless stated | CARL | APT | CVRX | LNSR | APYX | ELMD | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $63m | $62m | $61m | $60m | $58m | $74m | $95m |
| Revenue growth, last 12 months | 65.4% | 5.7% | 12.0% | 3.3% | 25.6% | 15.3% | 9.3% |
| Revenue growth, 3-year average | — | 2.9% | 25.7% | 16.4% | 7.2% | 15.4% | 13.5% |
| Revenue growth, latest quarter | 56.7% | 12.0% | 15.6% | 18.4% | 22.1% | 11.6% | 10.5% |
| Gross margin | 76.6% | 38.0% | 86.9% | 48.3% | 63.5% | 78.5% | 61.3% |
| Operating margin | −61.1% | 7.5% | −79.5% | −13.5% | −6.1% | 18.8% | −8.7% |
| Operating margin, 3-year average | — | 6.7% | −99.3% | −22.5% | −26.2% | 15.3% | −17.9% |
| Net margin | −57.4% | 6.8% | −84.9% | 57.6% | −14.8% | 15.3% | −12.1% |
| Cash from operations / revenue | −53.9% | 10.4% | −66.1% | −12.1% | −17.3% | 13.1% | −2.1% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | −54.6% | 9.4% | −67.1% | −12.1% | −18.9% | 11.3% | −4.0% |
| Free-cash-flow margin, 3-year average | — | 6.9% | −75.1% | −14.5% | −20.1% | 14.8% | −7.0% |
| Stock pay / revenue | 8.5% | 0.9% | 20.0% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 6.3% |
| Change in share count | — | −5.3% | 5.8% | 33.3% | 10.5% | −2.5% | 4.0% |
| Manager | Value | Shares | Share of 13F value | Shares QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jupiter Topco LLC | $13M | 1.3M | 21.9% | — |
| Parkman Healthcare Partners LLC | $6.2M | 597K | 10.5% | ▲ 14.6% |
| Blackrock, Inc. | $5.5M | 533K | 9.3% | ▲ 19.2% |
| Kcm Capital Inc | $4.6M | 440K | 7.7% | ▲ 120.0% |
| Pier Capital, LLC | $3.9M | 374K | 6.5% | New |
| Millennium Management LLC | $3.1M | 296K | 5.2% | New |
| Palumbo Wealth Management LLC | $2.8M | 267K | 4.7% | New |
| Vanguard Capital Management LLC | $2.5M | 239K | 4.2% | ▼ 13.5% |
| Schonfeld Strategic Advisors LLC | $2.3M | 225K | 3.9% | ▼ 20.6% |
| Geode Capital Management, LLC | $2.1M | 205K | 3.6% | ▲ 5.9% |
| Russell Investments Group, Ltd. | $1.4M | 139K | 2.4% | ▼ 12.6% |
| State Street Corp | $1.4M | 133K | 2.3% | ▲ 17.0% |
From Form 13F filings with the SEC ( quarterly data sets), as reported by each manager for June 30, 2026 and filed up to 45 days later. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M only, so this is not Carlsmed, Inc.'s complete shareholder register. Values are as reported by the filers .
| Insider | Date | Trade | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bertolini Jeffrey Chief Operating Officer | October 30, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 243 | $15.80 | $3,839 |
| Bertolini Jeffrey Chief Operating Officer | October 5, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 747 | $14.39 | $10,749 |
| Bertolini Jeffrey Chief Operating Officer | September 30, 2026 | Sell pre-set plan | 243 | $13.99 | $3,400 |
| Cordonnier Michael CEO, President | March 2, 2026 | Sell | 197,855 | $13.29 | $2.6M |
From insiders' Form 4 filings with the SEC. Excludes awards, option exercises and shares withheld for tax. "Pre-set plan" means the filing marks the trade as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. See every insider trade since five years ago, on a price chart.
| Data | Last updated | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | Exchange closing prices | |
| Financial statements | SEC 10-K and 10-Q filings | |
| News and updates | Company releases and SEC 8-K filings | |
| Analyst estimates | Aggregated analyst estimates | |
| Valuation and scores | Our models, from the filed figures |
New research on the companies we cover arrives in the weekly email. Free, one email a week.
