Centerra Gold Inc. is a US-listed company in the gold industry. Its financial year ends in December.
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Under review: data-quality checks not passed.
Under review: data-quality checks not passed. We'll show the comparison once resolved.
Centerra Gold Inc. valuation: adjust assumptions and compare models →
What company insiders, investment funds and members of Congress have been doing with the stock, from their own filings.
Revenue for the twelve months was $1.09bn. Free-cash-flow margin held at 14.6%. It passes 2 of our 2 financial-health checks.
Our model value for Centerra Gold is under review, so past values are not shown until it is resolved.
Written from the company's filings and our models when each quarter's report arrives. Figures in older notes are as published at the time. Not investment advice.
Our discounted-cash-flow model values the business at ~$34 per share in the base case (~$26–$43 across growth scenarios) — model values under stated assumptions, not a price target.
Current signal Revenue growth accelerating: TTM revenue growth rose to 28.8% (+34.3pp vs the prior quarter).
Assembled from SEC-filed figures — the full workings are on this page and in our methodology. Observations, not recommendations.
No figure in Centerra Gold Inc.'s latest results trips our warning thresholds.
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Third-party market data · may be delayed
Company announcements, filed results and changes that matter to shareholders.
No recent updates are available for CGAU from the sources we follow. See filings →
Our value per share comes from a discounted-cash-flow model of Centerra Gold Inc.'s free cash flow after stock-based pay ( $150M, FY2023 Q4 TTM, with after-tax interest added back): growth for five years as below (the first two years from forecasts, guidance and the company's record), fading to 2.5%, discounted at 8.5%, then cash added and debt and other claims subtracted. These are model values under stated assumptions, not price targets or recommendations.
Not assessed: fewer than five years of comparable figures in the filings. AI disruption exposure for this industry: Low.
| Fiscal year | EPS | Growth | Revenue | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | $1.58 | +42% | $1.9bn | +37% |
| Next | $2.06 | +30% | $1.8bn | −4% |
Next year's EPS estimate has moved +8.5% in 90 days, across 10 analysts.
The consensus EPS forecast for the current fiscal year is −3.1% on 90 days ago. In the last 30 days, 1 analyst raised Centerra Gold Inc.'s forecast and 6 cut it.
Average of analysts' published estimates (third-party data).
| Period | Current fiscal year | Next fiscal year |
|---|---|---|
| 90 days ago | $1.63 | $1.90 |
| 60 days ago | $1.63 | $1.93 |
| 30 days ago | $1.62 | $1.91 |
| 7 days ago | $1.54 | $2.04 |
| Now | $1.58 | $2.06 |
| Quarter to | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sept 2026 | $0.34 | $0.37 | +10.3% |
| Jun 2026 | $0.38 | $0.39 | +2.8% |
| Mar 2026 | $0.43 | $0.44 | +2.6% |
| Dec 2025 | $0.37 | $0.41 | +12.0% |
Adjusted EPS as companies report it, against the average analyst estimate.
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 1, 2026.
| Period | Revenue (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY20 Q4 | $721.3M |
| FY21 Q4 | $900.1M |
| FY22 Q4 | $850.2M |
| FY23 Q4 | $1.1B |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 1, 2026.
| Period | Operating margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY20 Q4 | 6.1% |
| FY21 Q4 | 37.1% |
| FY22 Q4 | -4.3% |
| FY23 Q4 | 1.6% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 1, 2026.
| Period | FCF margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY20 Q4 | 114.6% |
| FY21 Q4 | 35.8% |
| FY22 Q4 | -9.8% |
| FY23 Q4 | 14.6% |
| Fiscal year | 2020 Dec 2020 | 2021 Dec 2021 | 2022 Dec 2022 | 2023 Dec 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | ||||
| Revenue | 721 | 900 | 850 | 1,095 |
| Gross profit | 215 | 292 | 179 | 264 |
| EBITDA | 140 | 454 | 60 | 143 |
| Operating income | 44 | 334 | −37 | 18 |
| Net income | 409 | −382 | −77 | −81 |
| Diluted EPS | $1.37 | −$1.29 | −$0.31 | −$0.38 |
| Growth (year on year) | ||||
| Revenue | — | +24.8% | −5.5% | +28.8% |
| EBITDA | — | +225.2% | −86.7% | +136.9% |
| Operating income | — | +660.4% | −111.0% | — |
| Net income | — | −193.4% | — | — |
| Diluted EPS | — | −194.2% | — | — |
| Margins | ||||
| Gross margin | 29.9% | 32.4% | 21.0% | 24.1% |
| EBITDA margin | 19.4% | 50.5% | 7.1% | 13.0% |
| Operating margin | 6.1% | 37.1% | −4.3% | 1.6% |
| Net margin | 56.6% | −42.4% | −9.1% | −7.4% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 114.6% | 35.8% | −9.8% | 14.6% |
| Cash flow | ||||
| Cash from operations | 930 | 415 | −2 | 246 |
| Capital spending | 104 | 93 | 81 | 85 |
| Free cash flow | 826 | 322 | −83 | 160 |
| Stock-based pay | 20 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | 806 | 321 | −84 | 150 |
| Balance sheet | ||||
| Cash | 545 | 947 | 532 | 613 |
| Total debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Net debt (negative = net cash) | −545 | −947 | −532 | −613 |
| Diluted shares | 296m | 297m | 266m | 218m |
| Returned to shareholders | ||||
| Dividends | 40 | 45 | 48 | 45 |
| Buybacks | — | 0 | 104 | — |
| Total returned | 40 | 45 | 152 | 45 |
| Last 12 months unless stated | CGAU | FSM | ARIS | AUGO | RGLD | AGI | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $1.1bn | $947m | $928m | $922m | $1.5bn | $1.8bn | $1.8bn |
| Revenue growth, last 12 months | 28.8% | 39.8% | 81.7% | 55.1% | 93.5% | 34.3% | 52.3% |
| Gross margin | 24.1% | 49.3% | 55.3% | 58.0% | 66.8% | 55.2% | 51.2% |
| Operating margin | 1.6% | 43.1% | 38.7% | — | 61.4% | 60.7% | 41.1% |
| Operating margin, 3-year average | — | 35.7% | — | — | 59.6% | 24.3% | 26.0% |
| Net margin | −7.4% | 30.4% | 8.4% | −8.6% | 47.7% | 49.0% | 29.6% |
| Cash from operations / revenue | 22.4% | 54.0% | 40.2% | — | 67.5% | 44.0% | 45.2% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 14.6% | 28.5% | 13.9% | — | 48.1% | 15.9% | 25.2% |
| Free-cash-flow margin, 3-year average | — | 18.8% | — | — | 50.2% | 5.7% | 13.8% |
| Stock pay / revenue | 0.9% | — | 4.5% | — | 0.8% | 3.7% | 0.9% |
| Change in share count | −18.0% | 7.8% | 20.5% | 8.4% | 20.3% | 3.0% | 2.8% |
| Manager | Value | Shares | Share of 13F value | Shares QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L1 Capital Pty Ltd | $259M | 16.3M | 11.3% | ▲ 131.7% |
| Donald Smith & Co., Inc. | $245M | 15.4M | 10.7% | ▼ 2.1% |
| Van Eck Associates Corp | $212M | 13.3M | 9.2% | ▼ 17.0% |
| Acadian Asset Management LLC | $121M | 7.6M | 5.2% | ▼ 1.3% |
| Arrowstreet Capital, Limited Partnership | $118M | 7.4M | 5.1% | ▼ 10.4% |
| American Century Companies Inc | $103M | 6.5M | 4.5% | ▲ 20.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management LLC | $92.6M | 5.8M | 4.0% | ▲ 0.7% |
| Goldman Sachs Group Inc | $66.6M | 4.2M | 2.9% | ▼ 38.4% |
| FMR LLC | $60.8M | 3.8M | 2.6% | ▲ 41.2% |
| Westwood Holdings Group Inc | $55.1M | 3.5M | 2.4% | ▲ 28.1% |
| Invesco Ltd. | $49.1M | 3.1M | 2.1% | ▼ 2.1% |
| Bank Of Montreal | $42.6M | 2.7M | 1.9% | ▼ 13.0% |
From Form 13F filings with the SEC ( quarterly data sets), as reported by each manager for June 30, 2026 and filed up to 45 days later. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M only, so this is not Centerra Gold Inc.'s complete shareholder register. Values are as reported by the filers ; 1 inconsistently scaled filing rows were excluded.
From insiders' Form 4 filings with the SEC. Excludes awards, option exercises and shares withheld for tax. "Pre-set plan" means the filing marks the trade as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. See every insider trade since five years ago, on a price chart.
| Data | Last updated | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | Exchange closing prices | |
| News and updates | Company releases and SEC 8-K filings | |
| Analyst estimates | Aggregated analyst estimates | |
| Valuation and scores | Our models, from the filed figures |
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