51talk Online Education Group is a US-listed company in the education services industry. Its financial year ends in December.
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~$41
Cash-flow model
Base case. Range ~$33–$52 across our lower- and higher-growth cases (8%–18% a year).
Undervalued
The price is below our entire value range; our base value is 258% above it.
Price used: $11.48, November 2, 2026
51talk Online Education Group valuation: adjust assumptions and compare models →
What company insiders, investment funds and members of Congress have been doing with the stock, from their own filings.
Revenue for the twelve months was $96m, up 88.6% on a year earlier, faster than the 87.0% growth a quarter earlier. Free-cash-flow margin rose to 10.0% from -13810.5% a year earlier. Operating margin widened to -15.1% from -582.7%. The diluted share count is up 2.3% on a year earlier, which dilutes existing holders. It passes 1 of our 2 financial-health checks.
Written from the company's filings and our models when each quarter's report arrives. Figures in older notes are as published at the time. Not investment advice.
51talk Online Education Group's trailing-twelve-month revenue grew 88.6% year on year, with a free-cash-flow margin of 10.0%. Where it stands out: gross margin of 73.9% ranks 1 of 19 education services companies we cover.
Our discounted-cash-flow model values the business at ~$41 per share in the base case (~$33–$52 across growth scenarios) — model values under stated assumptions, not a price target.
Current signal Free cash flow diverging from earnings: TTM free cash flow grew 72.3% while net income fell 132.3%: a 205pp divergence.
Assembled from SEC-filed figures — the full workings are on this page and in our methodology. Observations, not recommendations.
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Third-party market data · may be delayed
Company announcements, filed results and changes that matter to shareholders.
The share price implies cash flow shrinking about 21.6% a year for five years.That is close to the -21.2% a year revenue growth 51talk Online Education Group has delivered.
Read with care: free cash flow has swung sharply in the past year (often a one-off tax, legal or working-capital item), so the cash-flow base behind this reading may be unusually low or high.
Our cash-flow model with every input fixed except growth over the next five years, solved for the growth at which the model value equals the share price ($11.15, Nov 3, 2026). Cash-flow growth then fades to 2.5% a year; discount rate 8.5%. Delivered figures are revenue growth from SEC filings. This is a model exercise, not investment advice or a forecast of the share price. All companies
Our value per share comes from a discounted-cash-flow model of 51talk Online Education Group's free cash flow after stock-based pay ( $6.7M, FY2025 Q4 TTM, with after-tax interest added back): growth for five years as below (the first two years from forecasts, guidance and the company's record), fading to 2.5%, discounted at 8.5%, then cash added and debt and other claims subtracted. These are model values under stated assumptions, not price targets or recommendations.
We value 51talk Online Education Group as an operating company, with every model that fits that kind of business. Cost of equity 7.9%: the 10-year Treasury yield (4.9%) plus a beta of 0.66 times a 4.5% equity risk premium.
| Model | Value per share | In the combined value? |
|---|---|---|
| Cash-flow model (DCF) Free cash flow to the firm (after stock pay, with after-tax interest added back), grown then faded to 2.5%, discounted at 8.5% as the firm rate, less debt and other claims. | ~$41 ~$33–$52 | Primary model, counts double |
| Price-to-earnings vs peers Earnings per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) price-to-earnings. | — | Does not apply: no positive earnings in the latest twelve months |
| Residual income Book value plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, fading over ten years. | — | Does not apply: book value or earnings not available |
| Justified price-to-book Book value times (return on equity - growth) / (cost of equity - growth): steady-state returns. | — | Does not apply: return on equity is not positive |
| Combined value Weighted average of the models that apply: the primary model (cash-flow model (dcf)) counts double. Models more than 5x or less than 0.2x the share price, or more than 3x away from the other models' median, are left out. | ~$41 ~$33–$52 | 1 model |
Different models fail in different ways, so where several apply we average them rather than trust one. Peer-based models compare 51talk Online Education Group with Education Services in our coverage, using third-party market data. Model values are estimates under stated assumptions, updated as new filings arrive; not price targets or investment advice. How each model works.
| Discount rate ↓ / growth → | −5% growth | 0% growth | 5% growth | 10% growth | 15% growth | 20% growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7% | $23 | $28 | $36 | $46 | $59 | $76 |
| 8.5% | $19 | $23 | $29 | $36 | $45 | $57 |
| 10% | $17 | $20 | $24 | $30 | $37 | $46 |
| At fiscal year end | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share price | $62.20 | $50.00 | $28.88 | $39.28 | $108.44 | $4.84 | $6.30 | $8.03 | $20.50 | $31.93 |
| Market value | $206m | $251m | $147m | $202m | $578m | $26m | $35m | $46m | $119m | $189m |
| + Net debt (− = net cash) | −$42m | −$49m | −$50m | −$53m | −$51m | −$25m | −$18m | −$21m | −$28m | −$39m |
| Enterprise value | $164m | $202m | $97m | $149m | $526m | $2m | $17m | $24m | $91m | $150m |
| Multiples | ||||||||||
| Price / sales | 3.4x | 1.9x | 0.9x | 1.0x | 1.8x | 33.6x | 2.3x | 1.7x | 2.3x | 2.0x |
| Price / earnings | — | — | — | — | 27.2x | 1.4x | — | — | — | — |
| Price / free cash flow | — | 83.1x | 82.8x | 3.6x | 5.7x | — | — | 167.8x | 21.5x | 19.8x |
| EV / EBITDA | — | — | — | — | 27.8x | — | — | — | — | — |
Not assessed: fewer than five years of comparable figures in the filings. AI disruption exposure for this industry: Medium.
No analyst estimates are published for 51talk Online Education Group: too few analysts cover it.
| Calendar year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 to date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return | ||||||
| COE | −96% | +30% | +28% | +155% | +56% | −64% |
| Industry peers (median) | −10% | −10% | +23% | +14% | −3% | −8% |
| S&P 500 | +29% | −18% | +26% | +25% | +18% | +11% |
| Months that ended higher | ||||||
| COE | 25% | 58% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 36% |
| S&P 500 | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 75% | 46% |
| Largest fall from a high during the year | ||||||
| COE | −96% | −49% | −25% | −32% | −43% | −69% |
| S&P 500 | −5% | −25% | −10% | −8% | −19% | −9% |
Worst fall since June 10, 2016: 98% from March 10, 2020 to January 31, 2022. Getting back needed a 4127% gain, and the shares have not yet recovered.
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved Invalid Date.
| Period | Revenue (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY16 Q4 | $60.2M |
| FY17 Q4 | $130.3M |
| FY18 Q4 | $166.6M |
| FY19 Q4 | $212.4M |
| FY20 Q4 | $314.8M |
| FY21 Q4 | $788K |
| FY22 Q4 | $15M |
| FY23 Q4 | $27.1M |
| FY24 Q4 | $50.7M |
| FY25 Q4 | $95.6M |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved Invalid Date.
| Period | Revenue growth, TTM YoY |
|---|---|
| FY17 Q4 | 116.3% |
| FY18 Q4 | 27.8% |
| FY19 Q4 | 27.5% |
| FY20 Q4 | 48.2% |
| FY21 Q4 | -99.7% |
| FY22 Q4 | 1809.6% |
| FY23 Q4 | 80.2% |
| FY24 Q4 | 87.0% |
| FY25 Q4 | 88.6% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved Invalid Date.
| Period | Operating margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY16 Q4 | -122.4% |
| FY17 Q4 | -67.3% |
| FY18 Q4 | -35.3% |
| FY19 Q4 | -7.3% |
| FY20 Q4 | 5.1% |
| FY21 Q4 | -582.7% |
| FY22 Q4 | -82.1% |
| FY23 Q4 | -50.4% |
| FY24 Q4 | -15.9% |
| FY25 Q4 | -15.1% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved Invalid Date.
| Period | FCF margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY16 Q4 | -2.0% |
| FY17 Q4 | 2.3% |
| FY18 Q4 | 1.1% |
| FY19 Q4 | 26.3% |
| FY20 Q4 | 32.0% |
| FY21 Q4 | -13810.5% |
| FY22 Q4 | -303.7% |
| FY23 Q4 | 1.0% |
| FY24 Q4 | 10.9% |
| FY25 Q4 | 10.0% |
| Fiscal year | 2016 Dec 2016 | 2017 Dec 2017 | 2018 Dec 2018 | 2019 Dec 2019 | 2020 Dec 2020 | 2021 Dec 2021 | 2022 Dec 2022 | 2023 Dec 2023 | 2024 Dec 2024 | 2025 Dec 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | ||||||||||
| Revenue | 60 | 130 | 167 | 212 | 315 | 1 | 15 | 27 | 51 | 96 |
| Gross profit | 39 | 82 | 107 | 149 | 226 | 1 | 12 | 21 | 40 | 71 |
| EBITDA | −71 | −83 | −54 | −12 | 19 | −4 | −12 | −14 | −8 | −14 |
| Operating income | −74 | −88 | −59 | −15 | 16 | −5 | −12 | −14 | −8 | −14 |
| Net income | −74 | −89 | −61 | −15 | 21 | 19 | −43 | −15 | −7 | −17 |
| Diluted EPS | — | −$18.00 | −$12.00 | −$3.00 | $4.20 | $3.60 | — | −$2.40 | −$1.20 | −$3.00 |
| Growth (year on year) | ||||||||||
| Revenue | — | +116.3% | +27.8% | +27.5% | +48.2% | −99.7% | +>999% | +80.2% | +87.0% | +88.6% |
| EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — | −123.8% | — | — | — | — |
| Operating income | — | — | — | — | — | −128.7% | — | — | — | — |
| Net income | — | — | — | — | — | −11.8% | −327.1% | — | — | — |
| Diluted EPS | — | — | — | — | — | −14.3% | — | — | — | — |
| Margins | ||||||||||
| Gross margin | 64.8% | 63.0% | 64.1% | 70.2% | 71.7% | 83.5% | 78.8% | 76.7% | 78.0% | 73.9% |
| EBITDA margin | −118.5% | −63.9% | −32.4% | −5.5% | 6.0% | −570.4% | −81.4% | −50.0% | −15.6% | −14.6% |
| Operating margin | −122.4% | −67.3% | −35.3% | −7.3% | 5.1% | −582.7% | −82.1% | −50.4% | −15.9% | −15.1% |
| Net margin | −123.1% | −68.5% | −36.4% | −7.1% | 6.7% | >999% | −282.8% | −55.4% | −14.3% | −17.6% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | −2.0% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 26.3% | 32.0% | <−999% | −303.7% | 1.0% | 10.9% | 10.0% |
| Cash flow | ||||||||||
| Cash from operations | 4 | 8 | 4 | 57 | 104 | −105 | −46 | 1 | 6 | 12 |
| Capital spending | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Free cash flow | −1 | 3 | 2 | 56 | 101 | −109 | −46 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
| Stock-based pay | 7 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | −8 | −2 | −2 | 53 | 101 | −109 | −46 | −1 | 5 | 8 |
| Balance sheet | ||||||||||
| Cash | 42 | 49 | 60 | 53 | 51 | 25 | 18 | 21 | 28 | 39 |
| Total debt | 0 | 0 | 10 | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Net debt (negative = net cash) | −42 | −49 | −50 | −53 | −51 | −25 | −18 | −21 | −28 | −39 |
| Diluted shares | 3m | 5m | 5m | 5m | 5m | 5m | 6m | 6m | 6m | 6m |
| Returned to shareholders | ||||||||||
| Buybacks | — | — | — | 1 | 4 | 3 | — | — | — | — |
| Total returned | — | — | — | 1 | 4 | 3 | — | — | — | — |
| Last 12 months unless stated | COE | IH | LGCY | NRDY | AACG | GSUN | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $96m | $112m | $80m | $178m | $37m | $35m | $266m |
| Revenue growth, last 12 months | 88.6% | −12.4% | 24.8% | −0.2% | 0.1% | 482.8% | 7.5% |
| Revenue growth, 3-year average | — | — | — | 1.3% | −13.8% | — | 10.3% |
| Revenue growth, latest quarter | — | — | 12.0% | −4.5% | — | — | 5.8% |
| Gross margin | 73.9% | 67.9% | — | 61.0% | 48.6% | 2.3% | 54.6% |
| Operating margin | −15.1% | 8.3% | 14.8% | −25.4% | −23.9% | −5.9% | 5.0% |
| Operating margin, 3-year average | −221.7% | — | 14.6% | −32.4% | −342.2% | — | 5.9% |
| Net margin | −17.6% | 11.8% | 11.4% | −17.0% | −17.9% | −14.3% | 3.9% |
| Cash from operations / revenue | 12.4% | 6.4% | 5.0% | −6.7% | −5.9% | −26.3% | 8.4% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 10.0% | 5.8% | 3.3% | −9.9% | −6.4% | −26.3% | 5.8% |
| Free-cash-flow margin, 3-year average | <−999% | — | 5.6% | −12.8% | −3.2% | — | 5.4% |
| Stock pay / revenue | 1.4% | 0.1% | 1.5% | 12.6% | 0.2% | 70.4% | 1.4% |
| Change in share count | 2.3% | −1.3% | 9.9% | 6.0% | 0.7% | 43.8% | 0.7% |
| Measure | Company | Peer median | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth Growth | 88.6% | 7.5% | 2 of 25 |
| Change in growth rate Growth | +1.6pp | -0.5pp | 9 of 25 |
| Gross margin Profitability | 73.9% | 54.6% | 1 of 19 |
| Operating margin Profitability | -15.1% | 5.0% | 18 of 25 |
| Net margin Profitability | -17.6% | 3.9% | 19 of 25 |
| Free-cash-flow margin Cash generation | 10.0% | 5.8% | 11 of 25 |
| Stock pay as % of revenue Cash generation | 1.4% | 1.4% | 10 of 21 |
| Change in share count Balance sheet | 2.3% | 0.7% | 14 of 24 |
Rank 1 = best in the group (for spending, debt and dilution, lower ranks first).
| Manager | Value | Shares | Share of 13F value | Shares QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hsg Holding Ltd | $7.6M | 475K | 68.7% | 0.0% |
| Bank Of America Corp | $1.3M | 82K | 11.9% | ▼ 34.8% |
| Acadian Asset Management LLC | $785,000 | 49K | 7.1% | ▼ 10.6% |
| Renaissance Technologies LLC | $664,716 | 42K | 6.0% | ▼ 5.9% |
| Jpmorgan Chase & Co | $566,918 | 38K | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| Barclays PLC | $100,613 | 6K | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| UBS Group AG | $15,264 | 1K | 0.1% | ▼ 4.5% |
| Rhumbline Advisers | $6,954 | 0K | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Blackrock, Inc. | $1,292 | 0K | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Royal Bank Of Canada | $1,000 | 0K | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Federation Des Caisses Desjardins Du Quebec | $798 | 0K | 0.0% | New |
| Proathlete Wealth Management LLC | $797 | 0K | 0.0% | 0.0% |
From Form 13F filings with the SEC ( quarterly data sets), as reported by each manager for June 30, 2026 and filed up to 45 days later. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M only, so this is not 51talk Online Education Group's complete shareholder register. Values are as reported by the filers .
| Insider | Date | Trade | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huang Jack Jiajia Chief Executive Officer | September 25, 2026 | Buy | 1,227,600 | $11.50 | $14.1M |
| Huang Jack Jiajia Chief Executive Officer | September 24, 2026 | Buy | 2,880 | $11.50 | $33,120 |
| Huang Jack Jiajia Chief Executive Officer | September 23, 2026 | Buy | 897,300 | $11.50 | $10.3M |
| Huang Jack Jiajia Chief Executive Officer | September 22, 2026 | Buy | 378,420 | $11.50 | $4.4M |
| Huang Jack Jiajia Chief Executive Officer | September 18, 2026 | Buy | 1,920 | $11.50 | $22,080 |
| Huang Jack Jiajia Chief Executive Officer | September 17, 2026 | Buy | 304,020 | $11.48 | $3.5M |
| Huang Jack Jiajia Chief Executive Officer | August 13, 2026 | Buy pre-set plan | 35,400 | $20.83 | $737,382 |
| Huang Jack Jiajia Chief Executive Officer | August 12, 2026 | Buy pre-set plan | 337,500 | $20.17 | $6.8M |
| Huang Jack Jiajia Chief Executive Officer | August 11, 2026 | Buy pre-set plan | 254,820 | $19.61 | $5M |
| Huang Jack Jiajia Chief Executive Officer | August 10, 2026 | Buy pre-set plan | 199,980 | $19.72 | $3.9M |
| Huang Jack Jiajia Chief Executive Officer | August 7, 2026 | Buy pre-set plan | 90,480 | $19.39 | $1.8M |
| Huang Jack Jiajia Chief Executive Officer | August 6, 2026 | Buy pre-set plan | 105,120 | $19.29 | $2M |
From insiders' Form 4 filings with the SEC. Excludes awards, option exercises and shares withheld for tax. "Pre-set plan" means the filing marks the trade as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. See every insider trade since five years ago, on a price chart.
| Data | Last updated | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | Exchange closing prices | |
| News and updates | Company releases and SEC 8-K filings | |
| Analyst estimates | Aggregated analyst estimates | |
| Valuation and scores | Our models, from the filed figures |
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