Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. is a US-listed company in the office REITs industry. Its financial year ends in December.
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~$9.9
Valuation models combined (2)
Base case. Range ~$1.6–$14. Weighted average of 2 models (funds-from-operations model, dividend discount (growing dividend)), the funds-from-operations model counting double.
No Buy/Hold/Sell rating is issued: only 2 valuation models apply; a rating needs 3.
Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. valuation: adjust assumptions and compare models →
What company insiders, investment funds and members of Congress have been doing with the stock, from their own filings.
Revenue for the twelve months to June 2026 was $784m, up 2.0% on a year earlier, faster than the 1.5% growth a quarter earlier. Our valuation models combined value is $11.21 a share, against a share price of $5.05.
Source: 10-Q filed August 6, 2026 on SEC EDGAR · Financials · Valuation
Written from the company's filings and our models when each quarter's report arrives. Figures in older notes are as published at the time. Not investment advice.
Empire State Realty Trust, Inc.'s trailing-twelve-month revenue grew 2.0% year on year, with a free-cash-flow margin of 13.2%. Where it stands out: change in share count of -0.0% ranks 4 of 18 office reits companies we cover. Where it lags: stock pay as % of revenue of 3.9% ranks 12 of 14 office reits companies we cover.
Current signal Free cash flow diverging from earnings: TTM free cash flow grew 79.6% while net income fell 92.4%: a 172pp divergence.
Assembled from SEC-filed figures — the full workings are on this page and in our methodology. Observations, not recommendations.
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Company announcements, filed results and changes that matter to shareholders.
We value Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. as an equity reit, with every model that fits that kind of business. Cost of equity 8.1%: the 10-year Treasury yield (4.9%) plus a beta of 0.71 times a 4.5% equity risk premium.
| Model | Value per share | In the combined value? |
|---|---|---|
| Funds-from-operations model Funds from operations growing 2.5% a year, discounted at 8%. | ~$14 ~$12–$17 | Primary model, counts double |
| Price-to-FFO vs peers Funds from operations per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) price-to-FFO. | ~$0.3 ~$6.7–$13 | Left out: out of range vs price (0.05x) |
| Dividend discount (growing dividend) Today's dividend growing 2.5% a year, discounted at the cost of equity. | ~$1.6 ~$1.4–$2.0 | Included |
| Combined value Weighted average of the models that apply: the primary model (funds-from-operations model) counts double. Models more than 5x or less than 0.2x the share price, or more than 3x away from the other models' median, are left out. | ~$9.9 ~$1.6–$14 | 2 models |
Different models fail in different ways, so where several apply we average them rather than trust one. Peer-based models compare Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. with equity REITs in our coverage, using third-party market data. Model values are estimates under stated assumptions, updated as new filings arrive; not price targets or investment advice. How each model works.
Weak moat
How hard Empire State Realty Trust's competitive advantage looks for rivals to wear away, judged from 10 years of its own filings: returns on capital, pricing power, profit durability, cash conversion and discipline.
Net income has been a median 1.0% of total assets over 10 years.
Operating margin has been a median 19.3%; its worst year was -4.4%.
Free cash flow was positive in 7 of 10 years, at a median 6.1% of revenue.
The diluted share count fell 3.3% over five years; stock-based pay has been a median 2.9% of revenue.
AI disruption exposure: Low. In this industry, the business rests on physical assets, regulated networks or products AI itself depends on.
| Fiscal year | EPS | Growth | Revenue | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | — | — | $743m | −3% |
| Next | — | — | $740m | −0% |
Last 12 months −30.7%
| Part | Then | Now | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (last 12 months) | $769m | $784m | +2.0% |
| Net margin | 5.3% | 0.4% | −92.6% |
| P/E multiple | 48.0x | n/m | +812.2% |
| Share count | 270m | 270m | 0.0% |
Biggest factor: net margin.
Last 3 years −41.4%
| Part | Then | Now | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (last 12 months) | $720m | $784m | +8.9% |
| Net margin | 6.5% | 0.4% | −93.9% |
| P/E multiple | 48.7x | n/m | +798.6% |
| Share count | 266m | 270m | −1.3% |
Biggest factor: net margin.
| Calendar year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 to date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return | ||||||
| ESRT | −4% | −23% | +46% | +8% | −36% | −22% |
| Industry peers (median) | +20% | −39% | +2% | +12% | −12% | +5% |
| S&P 500 | +29% | −18% | +26% | +25% | +18% | +11% |
| Months that ended higher | ||||||
| ESRT | 50% | 50% | 58% | 58% | 33% | 46% |
| S&P 500 | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 75% | 46% |
| Largest fall from a high during the year | ||||||
| ESRT | −33% | −36% | −36% | −13% | −36% | −41% |
| S&P 500 | −5% | −25% | −10% | −8% | −19% | −9% |
Worst fall since November 2, 2015: 78% from September 7, 2016 to September 18, 2026. Getting back needed a 357% gain, and the shares have not yet recovered.
| Results released | Next day | S&P 500 next day | 5 days | 21 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 29, 2026 | −11.7% | +0.1% | −13.6% | −18.0% |
| April 29, 2026 | −2.8% | +1.0% | −1.0% | 0.0% |
| February 17, 2026 | −0.8% | +0.7% | −5.3% | −17.8% |
| October 29, 2025 | −8.1% | −1.1% | −6.4% | −9.8% |
| July 23, 2025 | −5.0% | +0.9% | −5.8% | −6.0% |
| April 29, 2025 | −1.4% | +0.7% | +1.7% | +8.6% |
| February 19, 2025 | −3.2% | −0.2% | −0.7% | −8.9% |
| October 21, 2024 | −2.0% | −0.2% | −5.2% | −4.5% |
| July 24, 2024 | −5.2% | −2.8% | −3.1% | −9.4% |
| April 24, 2024 | −3.8% | −0.4% | −2.3% | −4.9% |
| February 20, 2024 | −2.5% | −0.5% | −0.7% | −1.5% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 29, 2026.
| Period | Revenue (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY23 Q3 | $728M |
| FY23 Q4 | $739.6M |
| FY24 Q1 | $756.1M |
| FY24 Q2 | $755.1M |
| FY24 Q3 | $763.2M |
| FY24 Q4 | $767.9M |
| FY25 Q1 | $766.8M |
| FY25 Q2 | $768.5M |
| FY25 Q3 | $766.6M |
| FY25 Q4 | $768.3M |
| FY26 Q1 | $778.5M |
| FY26 Q2 | $784.2M |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 29, 2026.
| Period | Revenue growth, TTM YoY |
|---|---|
| FY23 Q3 | 3.1% |
| FY23 Q4 | 1.7% |
| FY24 Q1 | 3.9% |
| FY24 Q2 | 4.9% |
| FY24 Q3 | 4.8% |
| FY24 Q4 | 3.8% |
| FY25 Q1 | 1.4% |
| FY25 Q2 | 1.8% |
| FY25 Q3 | 0.5% |
| FY25 Q4 | 0.0% |
| FY26 Q1 | 1.5% |
| FY26 Q2 | 2.0% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 29, 2026.
| Period | Operating margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY23 Q3 | 19.9% |
| FY23 Q4 | 19.8% |
| FY24 Q1 | 21.2% |
| FY24 Q2 | 20.3% |
| FY24 Q3 | 20.5% |
| FY24 Q4 | 20.7% |
| FY25 Q1 | 20.0% |
| FY25 Q2 | 19.4% |
| FY25 Q3 | 18.7% |
| FY25 Q4 | 17.7% |
| FY26 Q1 | 17.9% |
| FY26 Q2 | -4.4% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 29, 2026.
| Period | FCF margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY23 Q3 | 13.0% |
| FY23 Q4 | 8.6% |
| FY24 Q1 | 4.6% |
| FY24 Q2 | 9.0% |
| FY24 Q3 | -4.1% |
| FY24 Q4 | 14.9% |
| FY25 Q1 | 17.3% |
| FY25 Q2 | 7.5% |
| FY25 Q3 | 25.5% |
| FY25 Q4 | 6.6% |
| FY26 Q1 | 7.7% |
| FY26 Q2 | 13.2% |
| Fiscal year | 2011 Dec 2011 | 2012 Dec 2012 | 2013 Dec 2013 | 2014 Dec 2014 | 2015 Dec 2015 | 2016 Dec 2016 | 2017 Dec 2017 | 2018 Dec 2018 | 2019 Dec 2019 | 2020 Dec 2020 | 2021 Dec 2021 | 2022 Dec 2022 | 2023 Dec 2023 | 2024 Dec 2024 | 2025 Dec 2025 | LTM Jun 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | ||||||||||||||||
| Revenue | 295 | 260 | 206 | 635 | 658 | 677 | 710 | 732 | 731 | 609 | 624 | 727 | 740 | 768 | 768 | 784 |
| EBITDA | — | 131 | — | 287 | 323 | 339 | 354 | 359 | 336 | 250 | 281 | 344 | 337 | 344 | 330 | 164 |
| Operating income | — | 89 | — | 141 | 151 | 184 | 193 | 191 | 155 | 59 | 79 | 127 | 147 | 159 | 136 | −35 |
| Net income | 57 | 49 | −37 | 27 | 34 | 51 | 63 | 66 | 49 | −17 | −11 | 36 | 49 | 47 | 43 | 3 |
| Diluted EPS | — | — | — | $0.27 | $0.29 | $0.38 | $0.39 | $0.39 | $0.28 | −$0.10 | −$0.06 | $0.22 | $0.30 | $0.28 | $0.25 | $0.01 |
| Growth (year on year) | ||||||||||||||||
| Revenue | — | −11.7% | −20.8% | +208.3% | +3.5% | +3.0% | +4.7% | +3.1% | −0.0% | −16.7% | +2.4% | +16.5% | +1.7% | +3.8% | +0.0% | +2.0% |
| EBITDA | — | — | — | — | +12.6% | +5.0% | +4.3% | +1.6% | −6.4% | −25.8% | +12.5% | +22.4% | −2.1% | +2.1% | −3.8% | −51.3% |
| Operating income | — | — | — | — | +7.1% | +21.5% | +4.9% | −1.1% | −18.9% | −62.1% | +34.9% | +60.5% | +15.5% | +8.2% | −14.5% | −123.1% |
| Net income | — | −15.3% | −176.5% | — | +26.5% | +52.6% | +21.7% | +4.7% | −24.6% | −133.8% | — | — | +34.6% | −3.3% | −8.5% | −92.4% |
| Diluted EPS | — | — | — | — | +7.4% | +31.0% | +2.6% | 0.0% | −28.2% | −135.7% | — | — | +36.4% | −6.7% | −10.7% | −92.4% |
| Margins | ||||||||||||||||
| EBITDA margin | — | 50.5% | — | 45.1% | 49.1% | 50.1% | 49.8% | 49.1% | 46.0% | 41.0% | 45.0% | 47.3% | 45.5% | 44.7% | 43.0% | 20.9% |
| Operating margin | — | 34.1% | — | 22.2% | 23.0% | 27.1% | 27.2% | 26.1% | 21.2% | 9.6% | 12.7% | 17.5% | 19.8% | 20.7% | 17.7% | −4.4% |
| Net margin | 19.5% | 18.7% | −18.1% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 6.8% | −2.7% | −1.7% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 0.4% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | — | — | — | −56.5% | 7.1% | 2.5% | −4.8% | 3.1% | −3.2% | 12.8% | −29.8% | 17.2% | 8.6% | 11.5% | 6.6% | 13.2% |
| Cash flow | ||||||||||||||||
| Cash from operations | — | — | — | 139 | 203 | 215 | 194 | 279 | 233 | 182 | 212 | 211 | 232 | 261 | 249 | 228 |
| Capital spending | — | 88 | — | 498 | 157 | 198 | 228 | 256 | 256 | 104 | 398 | 86 | 169 | 173 | 198 | 124 |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | −359 | 46 | 17 | −34 | 23 | −23 | 78 | −186 | 125 | 63 | 88 | 51 | 104 |
| Stock-based pay | — | — | — | 4 | 5 | 10 | 14 | 19 | 21 | 25 | 20 | 21 | 20 | 22 | 25 | 30 |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | — | — | — | −363 | 41 | 7 | −48 | 4 | −44 | 53 | −206 | 104 | 43 | 66 | 25 | 73 |
| Balance sheet | ||||||||||||||||
| Cash | — | — | 61 | 46 | 47 | 554 | 464 | 205 | 234 | 527 | 424 | 264 | 347 | 385 | 133 | 86 |
| Total debt | — | 0 | 883 | 899 | 748 | 759 | 717 | 609 | 265 | 2,152 | 2,334 | 2,266 | 2,257 | 2,294 | 2,389 | 2,241 |
| Net debt (negative = net cash) | — | — | 822 | 853 | 701 | 205 | 253 | 404 | 31 | 1,625 | 1,910 | 2,001 | 1,910 | 1,909 | 2,256 | 2,155 |
| Diluted shares | — | — | — | 255m | 267m | 278m | 298m | 297m | 298m | 284m | 277m | 270m | 266m | 269m | 270m | 270m |
| Returned to shareholders | ||||||||||||||||
| Dividends | — | — | 8 | 34 | 39 | 56 | 67 | 71 | 75 | 37 | 18 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 24 | 24 |
| Buybacks | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0 | 0 | 144 | 47 | 90 | 13 | 0 | 8 | — |
| Total returned | — | — | 8 | 34 | 39 | 56 | 67 | 71 | 75 | 181 | 65 | 113 | 36 | 23 | 32 | 24 |
| Quarter | 2024 Q3 Sept 2024 | 2024 Q4 Dec 2024 | 2025 Q1 Mar 2025 | 2025 Q2 Jun 2025 | 2025 Q3 Sept 2025 | 2025 Q4 Dec 2025 | 2026 Q1 Mar 2026 | 2026 Q2 Jun 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | ||||||||
| Revenue | 200 | 198 | 180 | 191 | 198 | 199 | 190 | 197 |
| EBITDA | 91 | 88 | 75 | 83 | 87 | 86 | 80 | −88 |
| Operating income | 45 | 43 | 26 | 35 | 39 | 35 | 29 | −139 |
| Net income | 14 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 20 | 1 | −26 |
| Diluted EPS | $0.08 | $0.06 | $0.05 | $0.04 | $0.05 | $0.11 | $0.01 | −$0.15 |
| Growth (year on year) | ||||||||
| Revenue | +4.2% | +2.4% | −0.6% | +0.9% | −0.9% | +0.8% | +5.7% | +3.0% |
| EBITDA | +2.7% | −2.3% | −3.3% | −4.5% | −4.7% | −2.6% | +6.9% | −206.5% |
| Operating income | +7.3% | +5.3% | −17.0% | −10.8% | −13.3% | −17.5% | +14.2% | −494.9% |
| Net income | +17.1% | +22.6% | +62.9% | −61.8% | −41.0% | +76.2% | −86.6% | −496.1% |
| Diluted EPS | +14.3% | +20.0% | +66.7% | −60.0% | −37.5% | +83.3% | −80.0% | −475.0% |
| Margins | ||||||||
| EBITDA margin | 45.7% | 44.7% | 41.4% | 43.4% | 44.0% | 43.2% | 41.9% | −44.9% |
| Operating margin | 22.7% | 21.7% | 14.3% | 18.4% | 19.9% | 17.8% | 15.5% | −70.4% |
| Net margin | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 9.9% | 0.6% | −13.1% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | −32.6% | 69.3% | 22.8% | −28.8% | 36.8% | −4.1% | 26.7% | −5.8% |
| Cash flow | ||||||||
| Cash from operations | 103 | 50 | 83 | 27 | 105 | 34 | 69 | 20 |
| Capital spending | 168 | −87 | 42 | 82 | 33 | 42 | 18 | 31 |
| Free cash flow | −65 | 137 | 41 | −55 | 73 | −8 | 51 | −11 |
| Stock-based pay | 6 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 11 |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | −71 | 131 | 36 | −62 | 66 | −15 | 45 | −23 |
| Last 12 months unless stated | ESRT | ESBA | CDP | HIW | DEI | SLG | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $784m | $784m | $784m | $852m | $1.0bn | $1.0bn | $784m |
| Revenue growth, last 12 months | 2.0% | 2.0% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 0.8% | 8.5% | 2.0% |
| Revenue growth, 3-year average | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 0.5% | −0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| Revenue growth, latest quarter | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 8.1% | 1.6% | 9.1% | 3.0% |
| Gross margin | — | — | 77.5% | — | 63.2% | — | 60.0% |
| Operating margin | −4.4% | −4.4% | 22.6% | 67.2% | 19.2% | 66.6% | 22.3% |
| Operating margin, 3-year average | 11.8% | 11.8% | 17.9% | 67.2% | 25.5% | — | 17.1% |
| Net margin | 0.4% | 0.6% | 20.9% | 21.7% | −2.3% | −16.9% | −0.9% |
| Cash from operations / revenue | 29.0% | 29.0% | 43.0% | 44.5% | 38.3% | 8.9% | 32.8% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 13.2% | 13.2% | 40.6% | 8.0% | 17.8% | −17.1% | 7.8% |
| Free-cash-flow margin, 3-year average | 9.9% | 9.9% | 39.3% | 9.5% | 20.9% | −10.0% | 9.7% |
| Stock pay / revenue | 3.9% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.7% |
| Change in share count | −0.0% | −0.0% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 0.0% | 6.6% | 0.2% |
| Measure | Company | Peer median | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth Growth | 2.0% | 2.0% | 8 of 18 |
| Change in growth rate Growth | +0.5pp | +0.1pp | 5 of 18 |
| Operating margin Profitability | -4.4% | 37.8% | 6 of 8 |
| Net margin Profitability | 0.4% | 0.4% | 9 of 18 |
| Stock pay as % of revenue Cash generation | 3.9% | 1.7% | 12 of 14 |
| Change in share count Balance sheet | -0.0% | 0.3% | 4 of 18 |
Rank 1 = best in the group (for spending, debt and dilution, lower ranks first).
| Line of business | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | $638M | 83.3% | ▲ 1.3% |
| Observatory | $128M | 16.7% | ▼ 5.9% |
From Empire State Realty Trust, Inc.'s 10-K filed March 2, 2026, as tagged in the filing. View filing. Indented rows are part of the line above; their share is of that line. In the bars, the faint bar behind is the year before.
| Manager | Value | Shares | Share of 13F value | Shares QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackrock, Inc. | $96.7M | 17.9M | 12.5% | ▲ 5.9% |
| Ameriprise Financial Inc | $78.4M | 14.5M | 10.1% | ▲ 15.3% |
| Lasalle Investment Management Securities LLC | $70.9M | 13.1M | 9.1% | ▲ 44.7% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC | $67.7M | 12.5M | 8.7% | ▲ 1.2% |
| Southeastern Asset Management Inc | $47M | 8.7M | 6.1% | ▲ 34.3% |
| Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Group, Inc. | $37.4M | 6.9M | 4.8% | ▲ 40.8% |
| Vanguard Capital Management LLC | $32.8M | 6.1M | 4.2% | ▲ 1.1% |
| State Street Corp | $32.5M | 6.0M | 4.2% | ▲ 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management, LLC | $21.8M | 4.0M | 2.8% | ▲ 11.1% |
| Centersquare Investment Management LLC | $19.4M | 3.6M | 2.5% | ▲ 10.1% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management Inc | $17.7M | 3.3M | 2.3% | ▲ 0.2% |
| Legal & General Group PLC | $17.2M | 3.2M | 2.2% | ▲ 9.7% |
From Form 13F filings with the SEC ( quarterly data sets), as reported by each manager for June 30, 2026 and filed up to 45 days later. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M only, so this is not Empire State Realty Trust, Inc.'s complete shareholder register. Values are as reported by the filers .
From insiders' Form 4 filings with the SEC. Excludes awards, option exercises and shares withheld for tax. "Pre-set plan" means the filing marks the trade as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. See every insider trade since five years ago, on a price chart.
No trades in Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. disclosed in the last 12 months; 1 earlier trade on record.
Next expected around February 16, 2027 estimated from the company's past filing pattern, not announced
| Data | Last updated | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | Exchange closing prices | |
| Financial statements | SEC 10-K and 10-Q filings | |
| News and updates | Company releases and SEC 8-K filings | |
| Analyst estimates | Aggregated analyst estimates | |
| Valuation and scores | Our models, from the filed figures |
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