First Merchants Corp is a US-listed company in the regional banks industry. Its financial year ends in December.
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Third-party market data · may be delayed
~$48
Valuation models combined (6)
Base case. Range ~$34–$56. Weighted average of 6 models (residual income, justified price-to-book, price-to-book vs return on equity (peers), price-to-book vs peers, forward price-to-earnings vs peers, dividend discount (two-stage)), the residual income counting double.
Modestly undervalued
The price is inside our value range, 14% below our base value.
Price used: $41.36, November 2, 2026
First Merchants Corp valuation: adjust assumptions and compare models →
What company insiders, investment funds and members of Congress have been doing with the stock, from their own filings.
Model value −2.5%
Revenue for the twelve months to September 2026 was $724m, up 8.5% on a year earlier, faster than the 5.1% growth a quarter earlier. The diluted share count is up 5.1% on a year earlier, which dilutes existing holders. Our model value falls from $50.05 to $48.80 a share, against a share price of $40.59. The rating stays Buy.
Source: 10-Q filed October 30, 2026 on SEC EDGAR · Financials · Valuation
Revenue for the twelve months to June 2026 was $660m, up 1.0% on a year earlier, slower than the 2.5% growth a quarter earlier. Our cash-flow model value is $50.05 a share, against a share price of $41.13.
Written from the company's filings and our models when each quarter's report arrives. Figures in older notes are as published at the time. Not investment advice.
First Merchants Corp's trailing-twelve-month revenue grew 8.5% year on year, with a free-cash-flow margin of 37.6%.
Current signal Free cash flow diverging from earnings: TTM free cash flow grew 18.1% while net income fell 15.3%: a 33pp divergence.
Assembled from SEC-filed figures — the full workings are on this page and in our methodology. Observations, not recommendations.
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Third-party market data · may be delayed
Company announcements, filed results and changes that matter to shareholders.
We value First Merchants Corp as a bank or lender, with every model that fits that kind of business. Cost of equity 8.4%: the 10-year Treasury yield (4.9%) plus a beta of 0.78 times a 4.5% equity risk premium.
| Model | Value per share | In the combined value? |
|---|---|---|
| Residual income Book value plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, fading over ten years. | ~$49 ~$35–$71 | Primary model, counts double |
| Justified price-to-book Book value times (return on equity - growth) / (cost of equity - growth): steady-state returns. | ~$53 ~$44–$64 | Included |
| Price-to-book vs return on equity (peers) The price-to-book that peers with this return on equity trade on, from a line fitted across peers. | ~$56 ~$33–$79 | Included |
| Price-to-book vs peers Book value per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) price-to-book. | ~$34 ~$45–$66 | Included |
| Forward price-to-earnings vs peers Next year's consensus earnings per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) forward price-to-earnings. Uses analysts' consensus estimates (third-party data), not our forecasts. | ~$42 ~$40–$51 | Included |
| Dividend discount (two-stage) Dividends for five years at the growth the business can fund, then a steady payout and growth. | ~$54 ~$44–$67 | Included |
| Combined value Weighted average of the models that apply: the primary model (residual income) counts double. Models more than 5x or less than 0.2x the share price, or more than 3x away from the other models' median, are left out. | ~$48 ~$34–$56 | 6 models |
Different models fail in different ways, so where several apply we average them rather than trust one. Peer-based models compare First Merchants Corp with banks and lenders in our coverage, using third-party market data. Model values are estimates under stated assumptions, updated as new filings arrive; not price targets or investment advice. How each model works.
Strong moat
How hard First Merchants's competitive advantage looks for rivals to wear away, judged from 10 years of its own filings: returns on capital, pricing power, profit durability, cash conversion and discipline.
Net income has been a median 1.2% of total assets over 10 years.
Net margin has been a median 34.9%; its worst year was 27.3%.
The diluted share count rose 12.5% over five years; stock-based pay has been a median 0.9% of revenue.
AI disruption exposure: Medium. In this industry, AI could change how the product is made or sold, without replacing the core asset. The score above includes a 5-point deduction for that exposure (79 before it).
| Fiscal year | EPS | Growth | Revenue | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | $3.88 | −0% | $806m | +17% |
| Next | $4.36 | +13% | $847m | +5% |
Next year's EPS estimate has moved −2.7% in 90 days, across 6 analysts.
The consensus EPS forecast for the current fiscal year is +0.3% on 90 days ago. In the last 30 days, 2 analysts raised First Merchants Corp's forecast and 1 cut it.
Average of analysts' published estimates (third-party data).
| Period | Current fiscal year | Next fiscal year |
|---|---|---|
| 90 days ago | $3.86 | $4.48 |
| 60 days ago | $3.86 | $4.48 |
| 30 days ago | $3.87 | $4.49 |
| 7 days ago | $3.86 | $4.47 |
| Now | $3.88 | $4.36 |
| Quarter to | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sept 2026 | $1.04 | $1.10 | +5.4% |
| Jun 2026 | $1.03 | $0.74 | −28.3% |
| Mar 2026 | $0.97 | $1.03 | +6.6% |
| Dec 2025 | $0.95 | $0.98 | +3.0% |
Adjusted EPS as companies report it, against the average analyst estimate.
Last 12 months +21.0%
| Part | Then | Now | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (last 12 months) | $658m | $692m | +5.1% |
| Net margin | 34.3% | 26.9% | −21.6% |
| P/E multiple | 8.8x | 13.3x | +50.6% |
| Share count | 58m | 60m | −2.5% |
Biggest factor: p/e multiple.
Last 3 years +56.3%
| Part | Then | Now | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (last 12 months) | $676m | $692m | +2.3% |
| Net margin | 38.4% | 26.9% | −29.9% |
| P/E multiple | 6.1x | 13.3x | +118.7% |
| Share count | 59m | 60m | −0.3% |
Biggest factor: p/e multiple.
| Calendar year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 to date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return | ||||||
| FRME | +15% | +1% | −6% | +12% | −3% | +13% |
| Industry peers (median) | +34% | −4% | −2% | +16% | +10% | +24% |
| S&P 500 | +29% | −18% | +26% | +25% | +18% | +11% |
| Months that ended higher | ||||||
| FRME | 58% | 42% | 42% | 33% | 50% | 55% |
| S&P 500 | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 75% | 46% |
| Largest fall from a high during the year | ||||||
| FRME | −23% | −23% | −43% | −15% | −24% | −14% |
| S&P 500 | −5% | −25% | −10% | −8% | −19% | −9% |
Worst fall since November 2, 2015: 53% from August 21, 2018 to September 23, 2020. Getting back needed a 113% gain, reached on March 5, 2021, 163 days after the low.
| Results released | Next day | S&P 500 next day | 5 days | 21 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 21, 2026 | +1.8% | −0.7% | +1.4% | — |
| July 22, 2026 | −4.9% | −1.3% | −1.7% | −4.7% |
| April 22, 2026 | −1.6% | +0.6% | −1.3% | −0.3% |
| January 26, 2026 | +0.3% | +0.9% | +7.4% | +8.0% |
| October 22, 2025 | −1.4% | +0.1% | −3.5% | −4.4% |
| July 23, 2025 | −4.2% | +0.9% | −6.8% | −4.4% |
| April 24, 2025 | −3.7% | +2.8% | −2.7% | +1.1% |
| January 30, 2025 | +7.7% | 0.0% | +9.7% | +6.0% |
| October 24, 2024 | −4.3% | +0.2% | −0.8% | +17.9% |
| July 25, 2024 | +4.4% | +0.6% | −2.4% | −3.0% |
| April 25, 2024 | −2.6% | +0.6% | −1.9% | −4.9% |
| January 25, 2024 | −3.0% | +0.4% | −6.3% | −6.4% |
How First Merchants Corp’s listed options are priced, and three ways to use them that follow from our valuation. Quotes are delayed, read November 2, 2026. Check the live chain at your broker before trading.
Not offered: fundamentals grade C (needs B+ or better).
We suggest selling a put only on well-rated companies, at a strike where the price you would pay if assigned (strike less premium) is at or below our fair value.
Not offered: no liquid call at or above our price target — the model says the upside is worth more than any listed strike.
For holders: sell a call at a strike at or above our fair value, so the shares are only sold at a price the model calls full value.
Not offered: the shares trade below our fair value: a collar caps upside the model expects.
For holders of a stock trading at or above our fair value: buy a put for a floor and sell a call to pay for it.
General research, not personal advice. Options can lose you more than you expect and are not suitable for everyone: put sellers can be made to buy shares that keep falling, call sellers give up gains above the strike, and results or news can move prices sharply. Chances shown are approximations from each option’s delta. Spreads, fees and early assignment are not modelled.
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 30, 2026.
| Period | Revenue (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY23 Q4 | $651M |
| FY24 Q1 | $635.6M |
| FY24 Q2 | $631.3M |
| FY24 Q3 | $626.1M |
| FY24 Q4 | $646.7M |
| FY25 Q1 | $653.3M |
| FY25 Q2 | $657.7M |
| FY25 Q3 | $667.9M |
| FY25 Q4 | $662.9M |
| FY26 Q1 | $659.8M |
| FY26 Q2 | $691.5M |
| FY26 Q3 | $724.5M |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 30, 2026.
| Period | Revenue growth, TTM YoY |
|---|---|
| FY23 Q4 | 3.6% |
| FY24 Q1 | -5.0% |
| FY24 Q2 | -6.6% |
| FY24 Q3 | -6.2% |
| FY24 Q4 | -0.7% |
| FY25 Q1 | 2.8% |
| FY25 Q2 | 4.2% |
| FY25 Q3 | 6.7% |
| FY25 Q4 | 2.5% |
| FY26 Q1 | 1.0% |
| FY26 Q2 | 5.1% |
| FY26 Q3 | 8.5% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 30, 2026.
| Period | FCF margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY23 Q4 | 38.0% |
| FY24 Q1 | 34.3% |
| FY24 Q2 | 40.4% |
| FY24 Q3 | 40.0% |
| FY24 Q4 | 37.0% |
| FY25 Q1 | 36.4% |
| FY25 Q2 | 34.0% |
| FY25 Q3 | 34.5% |
| FY25 Q4 | 38.3% |
| FY26 Q1 | 37.9% |
| FY26 Q2 | 40.9% |
| FY26 Q3 | 37.6% |
What First Merchants earned on its loans and securities in FY2025, what it paid depositors and lenders, and how its revenue split between running costs, credit losses, tax and profit.
| Interest income | $925M | |
|---|---|---|
| Fee and other income | $127M | 19.1% of revenue |
| Interest paid | $389M | |
| Net interest income | $536M | 80.9% of revenue |
| Revenue | $663M | |
| Non-interest expense | $383M | 57.7% of revenue |
| Credit-loss provisions | $21.3M | 3.2% of revenue |
| Pre-tax profit | $259M | 39.1% of revenue |
| Income tax | $33.1M | 5.0% of revenue |
| Net income | $226M | 34.1% of revenue |
| Fiscal year | 2009 Dec 2009 | 2010 Dec 2010 | 2011 Dec 2011 | 2012 Dec 2012 | 2013 Dec 2013 | 2014 Dec 2014 | 2015 Dec 2015 | 2016 Dec 2016 | 2017 Dec 2017 | 2018 Dec 2018 | 2019 Dec 2019 | 2020 Dec 2020 | 2021 Dec 2021 | 2022 Dec 2022 | 2023 Dec 2023 | 2024 Dec 2024 | 2025 Dec 2025 | LTM Sept 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | ||||||||||||||||||
| Revenue | 205 | 192 | 192 | 217 | 210 | 249 | 266 | 292 | 348 | 415 | 443 | 492 | 520 | 628 | 651 | 647 | 663 | 724 |
| Net income | −41 | 7 | 25 | 45 | 45 | 60 | 65 | 81 | 96 | 159 | 164 | 149 | 206 | 222 | 224 | 201 | 226 | 198 |
| Diluted EPS | −$2.17 | $0.48 | $0.34 | $1.41 | $1.41 | $1.65 | $1.72 | $1.98 | $2.12 | $3.22 | $3.19 | $2.74 | $3.81 | $3.81 | $3.73 | $3.41 | $3.88 | $3.25 |
| Growth (year on year) | ||||||||||||||||||
| Revenue | — | −6.1% | +0.2% | +12.6% | −2.9% | +18.3% | +7.0% | +9.5% | +19.4% | +19.2% | +6.7% | +11.0% | +5.7% | +20.8% | +3.6% | −0.7% | +2.5% | +8.5% |
| Net income | — | — | +265.5% | +78.7% | −1.3% | +35.1% | +8.7% | +24.0% | +18.5% | +65.6% | +3.3% | −9.6% | +38.3% | +8.1% | +0.8% | −10.0% | +12.2% | −15.3% |
| Diluted EPS | — | — | −29.2% | +314.7% | 0.0% | +17.0% | +4.2% | +15.1% | +7.1% | +51.9% | −0.9% | −14.1% | +39.1% | 0.0% | −2.1% | −8.6% | +13.8% | −19.4% |
| Margins | ||||||||||||||||||
| Net margin | −19.9% | 3.6% | 13.1% | 20.8% | 21.2% | 24.2% | 24.6% | 27.8% | 27.6% | 38.3% | 37.1% | 30.2% | 39.5% | 35.4% | 34.4% | 31.1% | 34.1% | 27.3% |
| Cash flow | ||||||||||||||||||
| Cash from operations | 18 | 81 | 85 | 70 | 183 | 76 | 57 | 104 | 127 | 180 | 177 | 204 | 215 | 284 | 259 | 266 | 284 | 306 |
| Stock-based pay | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
| Balance sheet | ||||||||||||||||||
| Cash | 179 | 58 | 73 | 101 | 109 | 119 | 102 | 128 | 155 | 139 | 177 | 193 | 167 | 123 | 113 | 88 | 84 | 87 |
| Total debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 523 | 412 | 569 | 694 | 834 | 671 | 733 | 685 | 634 | 1,314 | 1,029 | 1,158 | 1,000 | 1,188 |
| Net debt (negative = net cash) | −179 | −58 | −73 | −101 | 414 | 293 | 466 | 566 | 679 | 532 | 556 | 492 | 467 | 1,191 | 916 | 1,071 | 916 | 1,101 |
| Diluted shares | — | 25m | 27m | 29m | 30m | 37m | 38m | 41m | 45m | 49m | 52m | 54m | 54m | 58m | 59m | 59m | 58m | 61m |
| Returned to shareholders | ||||||||||||||||||
| Dividends | 10 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 16 | 22 | 32 | 42 | 51 | 57 | 61 | 73 | 80 | 82 | 83 | 90 |
| Buybacks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 56 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 56 | 47 | 61 |
| Total returned | 10 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 17 | 24 | 32 | 42 | 70 | 112 | 87 | 73 | 80 | 138 | 130 | 151 |
| Quarter | 2024 Q4 Dec 2024 | 2025 Q1 Mar 2025 | 2025 Q2 Jun 2025 | 2025 Q3 Sept 2025 | 2025 Q4 Dec 2025 | 2026 Q1 Mar 2026 | 2026 Q2 Jun 2026 | 2026 Q3 Sept 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | ||||||||
| Revenue | 177 | 160 | 164 | 166 | 172 | 157 | 196 | 199 |
| Net income | 64 | 55 | 57 | 57 | 57 | 28 | 44 | 68 |
| Diluted EPS | $1.10 | $0.94 | $0.98 | $0.98 | $0.98 | $0.45 | $0.70 | $1.09 |
| Growth (year on year) | ||||||||
| Revenue | +13.2% | +4.3% | +2.8% | +6.5% | −2.8% | −2.0% | +19.3% | +19.8% |
| Net income | +51.5% | +15.4% | +42.3% | +15.4% | −11.3% | −49.1% | −22.6% | +20.3% |
| Diluted EPS | +57.1% | +17.5% | +44.1% | +16.7% | −10.9% | −52.1% | −28.6% | +11.2% |
| Margins | ||||||||
| Net margin | 36.3% | 34.5% | 34.6% | 34.2% | 33.1% | 17.9% | 22.4% | 34.3% |
| Cash flow | ||||||||
| Cash from operations | 68 | 62 | 54 | 88 | 81 | 59 | 88 | 78 |
| Stock-based pay | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Last 12 months unless stated | FRME | BANF | SBCF | MBIN | PRK | NBTB | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $724m | $723m | $733m | $714m | $738m | $742m | $255m |
| Revenue growth, last 12 months | 8.5% | 9.4% | 31.9% | 6.8% | 11.6% | 19.4% | 12.5% |
| Revenue growth, 3-year average | 2.8% | 5.3% | 10.4% | 13.9% | 14.5% | 13.1% | 6.0% |
| Revenue growth, latest quarter | 19.8% | 10.7% | 37.5% | 1.7% | 25.6% | 9.1% | 10.7% |
| Net margin | 27.3% | 34.8% | 22.1% | 37.6% | 25.8% | 28.8% | 28.7% |
| Cash from operations / revenue | 42.2% | 40.0% | 29.8% | −105.4% | 27.0% | 35.2% | 34.3% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 37.6% | 33.9% | 28.3% | −107.2% | 25.0% | 33.1% | 31.4% |
| Free-cash-flow margin, 3-year average | 37.4% | 35.1% | 31.7% | −68.8% | 28.9% | 30.5% | 29.9% |
| Stock pay / revenue | 1.1% | 0.5% | 2.6% | — | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.2% |
| Change in share count | 5.1% | 0.6% | 11.6% | 0.1% | 4.6% | 8.6% | 0.4% |
| Measure | Company | Peer median | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth Growth | 8.5% | 12.5% | 171 of 245 |
| Change in growth rate Growth | +3.3pp | +0.0pp | 61 of 244 |
| Net margin Profitability | 27.3% | 28.7% | 137 of 245 |
| Stock pay as % of revenue Cash generation | 1.1% | 1.3% | 81 of 206 |
| Change in share count Balance sheet | 5.1% | 0.4% | 176 of 230 |
Rank 1 = best in the group (for spending, debt and dilution, lower ranks first).
| Line of business | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Fiduciary and Trust | $35.5M | ▲ 3.7% |
| Deposit Account | $34.3M | ▲ 5.1% |
| Credit Card | $19.8M | ▲ 2.4% |
| Derivative Hedging | $3.4M | ▲ 9.8% |
| Financial Service Other | $1.5M | ▼ 0.1% |
These categories overlap or exclude eliminations, so shares aren't shown.
From First Merchants Corp's 10-K filed February 25, 2026, as tagged in the filing. View filing. Indented rows are part of the line above; their share is of that line. In the bars, the faint bar behind is the year before.
| Manager | Value | Shares | Share of 13F value | Shares QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackrock, Inc. | $233M | 5.3M | 11.4% | ▲ 8.7% |
| Dimensional Fund Advisors LP | $161M | 3.7M | 7.9% | ▲ 2.6% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC | $149M | 3.4M | 7.3% | ▲ 1.3% |
| Vanguard Capital Management LLC | $119M | 2.7M | 5.8% | ▼ 0.4% |
| State Street Corp | $111M | 2.6M | 5.5% | ▲ 13.9% |
| Earnest Partners LLC | $95M | 2.2M | 4.7% | ▼ 3.6% |
| Geode Capital Management, LLC | $73M | 1.7M | 3.6% | ▲ 6.2% |
| Nuveen, LLC | $46.3M | 1.1M | 2.3% | ▲ 1.5% |
| Victory Capital Management Inc | $45.6M | 1.0M | 2.2% | ▲ 4.8% |
| Systematic Financial Management LP | $37.2M | 850K | 1.8% | ▼ 1.3% |
| First Trust Advisors LP | $33.9M | 776K | 1.7% | ▲ 7.0% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management Inc | $31.1M | 712K | 1.5% | ▼ 1.0% |
From Form 13F filings with the SEC ( quarterly data sets), as reported by each manager for June 30, 2026 and filed up to 45 days later. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M only, so this is not First Merchants Corp's complete shareholder register. Values are as reported by the filers .
| Insider | Date | Trade | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fluhler Stephan Chief Information Officer | August 19, 2026 | Sell | 4,080 | $43.20 | $176,256 |
| Myers Larry W Director | June 12, 2026 | Sell | 10,000 | $42.00 | $420,000 |
| Myers Larry W Director | June 11, 2026 | Sell | 10,000 | $41.50 | $415,000 |
| Myers Larry W First Vice President | May 5, 2026 | Sell | 0 | $40.54 | $16 |
| Myers Larry W First Vice President | February 26, 2026 | Sell | 5,000 | $41.50 | $207,500 |
| Myers Larry W First Vice President | February 26, 2026 | Sell | 5,000 | $41.50 | $207,500 |
| Fluhler Stephan Chief Information Officer | February 11, 2026 | Sell | 4,161 | $41.96 | $174,596 |
| Scurlock Eva D. Chief Risk Officer | February 6, 2026 | Sell | 3,227 | $42.29 | $136,470 |
| Fluhler Stephan Chief Information Officer | November 4, 2025 | Sell | 5,689 | $35.55 | $202,244 |
From insiders' Form 4 filings with the SEC. Excludes awards, option exercises and shares withheld for tax. "Pre-set plan" means the filing marks the trade as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. See every insider trade since five years ago, on a price chart.
Next expected around January 25, 2027 estimated from the company's past filing pattern, not announced
| Data | Last updated | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | Exchange closing prices | |
| Financial statements | SEC 10-K and 10-Q filings | |
| News and updates | Company releases and SEC 8-K filings | |
| Analyst estimates | Aggregated analyst estimates | |
| Valuation and scores | Our models, from the filed figures |
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