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First Merchants Corp: what the price is pricing in

The price implies earnings growth of -1.7% a year; our model expects 2.9%. The gap is too narrow for a position this quarter. Switch lens below to see the same question asked of earnings, growth, sales and book value.

What growth in earnings is the price paying for?

The price implies earnings growth of -1.7% a year; our model expects 2.9%.

Gap too narrow for a position this quarter

What the price implies What our model expects

Quarters with a position3333 long, 0 short, since June 30, 2012
Beat the S&P 50014 of 3342.4% of quarters held
Strategy against the index−43.6%cumulative; worst fall -63.4%
$10,000 became$42,573S&P 500 bought and held: $71,619

Over time

The earnings growth the price-to-earnings ratio requires, against the growth our model assumes. Net income is already after interest, so it is valued at the return shareholders require, plus spare cash (none for banks and insurers, whose cash is funded by deposits and policies), with no debt subtracted.

-14%-6%3%11%20% 20122014201620182020202220242026 $11.8$24.2$36.5$48.8 Long from 2012-06-30Long from 2012-09-30Long from 2012-12-31Long from 2013-03-31Long from 2014-12-31Long from 2015-03-31Long from 2015-06-30Long from 2015-09-30Long from 2018-06-30Long from 2018-09-30Long from 2018-12-31Long from 2019-03-31Long from 2019-06-30Long from 2019-09-30Long from 2019-12-31Long from 2020-03-31Long from 2020-06-30Long from 2020-09-30Long from 2020-12-31Long from 2021-09-30Long from 2021-12-31Long from 2022-03-31Long from 2022-06-30Long from 2022-09-30Long from 2022-12-31Long from 2023-03-31Long from 2023-06-30Long from 2023-09-30Long from 2023-12-31Long from 2024-03-31Long from 2025-06-30Long from 2025-09-30Long from 2025-12-31
Growth our model assumes Growth the P/E implies Long quarter Short quarter. Lower panel: the share price at each quarter end, adjusted for later share splits and spin-offs (the table below gives the price as traded).

$10,000 trading the gap vs the S&P 500

$0$20.0k$40.0k$60.0k 20122014201620182020202220242026 $71.6k$42.6k
StrategyS&P 500, buy and hold Hypothetical, before costs. The strategy holds the S&P 500 and only changes on a signal: it switches into FRME in long quarters and adds a short of FRME in short quarters. The gap between the lines is what the signal added or lost.

Skill or luck?

In plain English: Across 33 quarters with a position, this lens beat the S&P 500 in 14, by −0.7% a quarter on average. That could easily be chance. One company is a small sample: the results across all companies are the better guide.

PositionsQuartersBeat the S&P 500Average vs S&P 500, a quarterTypical (median), a quarterA yearConfidence (t)Evidence
Longs 33 42.4% −0.7% −0.6% −6.7% -0.25 No reliable evidence
Shorts 0 — — — — — —
All positions 33 42.4% −0.7% −0.6% −6.7% -0.25 No reliable evidence

Each position is measured against the S&P 500 over the same quarter: a long earns the stock's return minus the index's, a short the index's minus the stock's. "A year" compounds the per-quarter results. Evidence: strong at a t-statistic of 2 or more, some from 1.5; "worse" when the result is that far below zero; one company's history is a small sample, so read these alongside the results across all companies.

Every quarter (58)
FromPrice paidGrowth the P/E impliesGrowth our model assumesPositionFRMES&P 500
September 30, 2026 (open) $39.78 -1.7% 2.9% No position +4.5% −0.8%
June 30, 2026 $43.69 -1.7% 2.0% No position −8.1% +2.4%
March 31, 2026 $38.73 -7.0% 2.2% No position +13.9% +15.1%
December 31, 2025 $37.48 -8.1% 5.7% Long +4.3% −4.4%
September 30, 2025 $37.70 -7.3% 5.3% Long +0.4% +2.7%
June 30, 2025 $38.30 -5.6% 5.2% Long −0.7% +8.1%
March 31, 2025 $40.44 -4.0% 3.4% No position −4.3% +10.8%
December 31, 2024 $39.89 -2.3% 2.0% No position +2.2% −4.3%
September 30, 2024 $37.20 -4.1% 2.0% No position +8.1% +2.5%
June 30, 2024 $33.29 -7.6% 2.0% No position +12.8% +5.8%
March 31, 2024 $34.90 -8.0% 6.7% Long −3.6% +4.4%
December 31, 2023 $37.08 -9.0% 13.0% Long −4.9% +10.4%
September 30, 2023 $27.82 -14.4% 18.2% Long +34.8% +11.6%
June 30, 2023 $28.23 -12.6% 20.0% Long −0.3% −3.2%
March 31, 2023 $32.95 -8.8% 16.6% Long −13.2% +8.7%
December 31, 2022 $41.11 -3.8% 11.1% Long −19.2% +7.5%
September 30, 2022 $38.68 -3.9% 8.0% Long +7.1% +7.6%
June 30, 2022 $35.62 -8.4% 7.0% Long +9.5% −4.9%
March 31, 2022 $41.60 -5.8% 6.7% Long −13.7% −16.1%
December 31, 2021 $41.89 -4.9% 8.4% Long −0.0% −4.6%
September 30, 2021 $41.84 -3.4% 7.9% Long +0.9% +11.1%
June 30, 2021 $41.67 -1.2% 8.1% No position +1.1% +0.6%
March 31, 2021 $46.50 2.3% 11.6% No position −9.8% +8.4%
December 31, 2020 $37.41 -1.8% 13.6% Long +25.0% +6.3%
September 30, 2020 $23.16 -10.0% 14.1% Long +62.8% +12.1%
June 30, 2020 $27.57 -7.6% 13.2% Long −15.1% +9.0%
March 31, 2020 $26.49 -8.6% 10.9% Long +5.0% +20.2%
December 31, 2019 $41.59 -1.5% 10.3% Long −35.8% −19.4%
September 30, 2019 $37.64 -4.4% 11.7% Long +11.2% +9.0%
June 30, 2019 $37.90 -4.1% 14.0% Long +0.1% +1.8%
March 31, 2019 $36.85 -4.4% 17.6% Long +3.6% +4.2%
December 31, 2018 $34.27 -3.6% 20.0% Long +8.1% +13.5%
September 30, 2018 $44.99 3.2% 20.0% Long −23.4% −13.5%
June 30, 2018 $46.40 6.0% 19.3% Long −2.6% +7.7%
March 31, 2018 $41.70 6.5% 15.3% No position +11.8% +3.5%
December 31, 2017 $42.06 6.7% 12.6% No position −0.4% −1.0%
September 30, 2017 $42.93 5.3% 11.2% No position −1.6% +6.8%
June 30, 2017 $40.14 4.5% 9.7% No position +7.5% +4.4%
March 31, 2017 $39.32 5.2% 10.6% No position +2.5% +3.1%
December 31, 2016 $37.65 6.3% 8.5% No position +4.8% +5.9%
September 30, 2016 $26.75 1.3% 6.1% No position +41.4% +4.0%
June 30, 2016 $24.93 0.5% 8.4% No position +7.9% +3.8%
March 31, 2016 $23.57 -1.2% 6.1% No position +6.3% +2.5%
December 31, 2015 $25.42 -0.2% 7.8% No position −6.8% +1.3%
September 30, 2015 $26.22 0.5% 12.2% Long −2.7% +7.0%
June 30, 2015 $24.70 0.2% 12.4% Long +6.6% −6.4%
March 31, 2015 $23.54 -0.2% 15.4% Long +5.4% +0.2%
December 31, 2014 $22.75 -0.1% 14.2% Long +3.8% +0.9%
September 30, 2014 $20.21 -0.3% 7.4% No position +13.0% +4.9%
June 30, 2014 $21.14 2.0% 3.6% No position −4.0% +1.1%
March 31, 2014 $21.64 1.4% 2.0% No position −1.9% +5.2%
December 31, 2013 $22.72 0.5% 2.0% No position −4.5% +1.7%
September 30, 2013 $17.33 -4.5% 2.0% No position +31.4% +10.5%
June 30, 2013 $17.15 -4.1% 3.6% No position +1.4% +5.2%
March 31, 2013 $15.47 -6.8% 12.6% Long +11.2% +2.9%
December 31, 2012 $14.84 -6.5% 10.9% Long +4.5% +10.5%
September 30, 2012 $15.01 -4.4% 9.6% Long −0.9% −0.4%
June 30, 2012 $12.46 -5.9% 7.2% Long +20.7% +6.3%

Price paid: the closing price that day as traded, before any later share split.

How the test works

At each quarter end since March 2010 we rebuild the models from First Merchants Corp's quarters ending at least 90 days earlier (and no more than 200 days before that), using the figures as later filed, including any restatement, and value them at that day's close, adjusted for later share splits and spin-offs so that price and share count are on the same basis. A wide enough gap is a long or a short for one quarter (growth 10 points; margin and return on equity 5 points; a PEG under 0.75 or over 3), measured on total return against the S&P 500. The rules were set before the test. No trading or borrowing costs; today's list of companies. Not investment advice. All companies and the results across them.

Compare with peers

Head to head: BANF vs FRMEFRME vs SBCFFRME vs MBIN

More: Regional Banks stocks compared, Financials sector, rankings of US companies

Figures from First Merchants Corp's SEC filings (10-K and 10-Q), retrieved October 30, 2026. How we read and check them: methodology and data sources. Not investment advice. Back to First Merchants Corp.