Gdev Inc. is a US-listed company in the interactive home entertainment industry. Its financial year ends in December.
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~$23
Cash-flow model
Base case. Range ~$18–$30 across our lower- and higher-growth cases (-3%–7% a year).
Undervalued
The price is below our entire value range; our base value is 149% above it.
Price used: $9.42, November 2, 2026
Gdev Inc. valuation: adjust assumptions and compare models →
What company insiders, investment funds and members of Congress have been doing with the stock, from their own filings.
Revenue for the twelve months was $404m, down 3.9% on a year earlier, a smaller fall than the 9.4% decline a quarter earlier. Free-cash-flow margin fell to 7.2% from 24.1% a year earlier. Operating margin widened to 17.6% from -28.4%. Against its peers on growth, profitability, cash generation and balance sheet, it grades B. It passes 2 of our 3 financial-health checks. Our cash-flow model value is $23.42 a share, against a share price of $9.00.
Written from the company's filings and our models when each quarter's report arrives. Figures in older notes are as published at the time. Not investment advice.
Gdev Inc.'s trailing-twelve-month revenue fell 3.9% year on year, with a free-cash-flow margin of 7.2%. Where it stands out: net margin of 17.1% ranks 2 of 12 interactive home entertainment companies we cover.
Our discounted-cash-flow model values the business at ~$23 per share in the base case (~$18–$30 across growth scenarios) — model values under stated assumptions, not a price target.
Current signal Free cash flow diverging from earnings: TTM free cash flow grew 3.4% while net income grew 171.5%: a 168pp divergence.
Assembled from SEC-filed figures — the full workings are on this page and in our methodology. Observations, not recommendations.
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Third-party market data · may be delayed
Company announcements, filed results and changes that matter to shareholders.
No recent updates are available for GDEV from the sources we follow. See filings →
The share price implies cash flow shrinking about 18.6% a year for five years.That is slower than the 9.2% a year revenue growth Gdev has delivered.
Read with care: free cash flow has swung sharply in the past year (often a one-off tax, legal or working-capital item), so the cash-flow base behind this reading may be unusually low or high.
Our cash-flow model with every input fixed except growth over the next five years, solved for the growth at which the model value equals the share price ($9.42, Nov 2, 2026). Cash-flow growth then fades to 2.5% a year; discount rate 8.5%. Delivered figures are revenue growth from SEC filings. This is a model exercise, not investment advice or a forecast of the share price. All companies
Our value per share comes from a discounted-cash-flow model of Gdev Inc.'s free cash flow after stock-based pay ( $22.2M, FY2025 Q4 TTM, with after-tax interest added back): growth for five years as below (the first two years from forecasts, guidance and the company's record), fading to 2.5%, discounted at 8.5%, then cash added and debt and other claims subtracted. These are model values under stated assumptions, not price targets or recommendations.
We value Gdev Inc. as an operating company, with every model that fits that kind of business. Cost of equity 9.1%: the 10-year Treasury yield (4.9%) plus a beta of 0.92 times a 4.5% equity risk premium.
| Model | Value per share | In the combined value? |
|---|---|---|
| Cash-flow model (DCF) Free cash flow to the firm (after stock pay, with after-tax interest added back), grown then faded to 2.5%, discounted at 8.5% as the firm rate, less debt and other claims. | ~$23 ~$18–$30 | Primary model, counts double |
| Price-to-earnings vs peers Earnings per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) price-to-earnings. | — | Does not apply: fewer than 5 peers with a usable multiple |
| Residual income Book value plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, fading over ten years. | — | Does not apply: book value or earnings not available |
| Justified price-to-book Book value times (return on equity - growth) / (cost of equity - growth): steady-state returns. | — | Does not apply: return on equity is not positive |
| Combined value Weighted average of the models that apply: the primary model (cash-flow model (dcf)) counts double. Models more than 5x or less than 0.2x the share price, or more than 3x away from the other models' median, are left out. | ~$23 ~$18–$30 | 1 model |
Different models fail in different ways, so where several apply we average them rather than trust one. Peer-based models compare Gdev Inc. with Interactive Home Entertainment in our coverage, using third-party market data. Model values are estimates under stated assumptions, updated as new filings arrive; not price targets or investment advice. How each model works.
| Discount rate ↓ / growth → | −5% growth | 0% growth | 5% growth | 10% growth | 15% growth | 20% growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7% | $21 | $27 | $35 | $46 | $60 | $79 |
| 8.5% | $17 | $21 | $27 | $35 | $45 | $58 |
| 10% | $14 | $18 | $22 | $28 | $36 | $46 |
Not assessed: fewer than five years of comparable figures in the filings. AI disruption exposure for this industry: Medium.
Next results: November 13, 2026, before the open. Analysts expect revenue of $109m for the quarter.
| Fiscal year | EPS | Growth | Revenue | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | $4.58 | +22% | $435m | +8% |
| Next | $5.21 | +14% | $465m | +7% |
Next year's EPS estimate has moved 0.0% in 90 days, across 1 analysts.
The consensus EPS forecast for the current fiscal year is +4.1% on 90 days ago. In the last 30 days, 1 analyst raised Gdev Inc.'s forecast and 0 cut it.
Average of analysts' published estimates (third-party data).
| Period | Current fiscal year | Next fiscal year |
|---|---|---|
| 90 days ago | $4.40 | $5.21 |
| 60 days ago | $4.40 | $5.21 |
| 30 days ago | $4.40 | $5.21 |
| 7 days ago | $4.40 | $5.21 |
| Now | $4.58 | $5.21 |
| Quarter to | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026 | $1.08 | $1.08 | 0.0% |
| Dec 2025 | $0.79 | $0.76 | −3.8% |
| Sept 2025 | $0.41 | $1.32 | +218.1% |
Adjusted EPS as companies report it, against the average analyst estimate.
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 1, 2026.
| Period | Revenue (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY19 Q4 | $93.8M |
| FY20 Q4 | $260.9M |
| FY21 Q4 | $434.1M |
| FY22 Q4 | $479.7M |
| FY23 Q4 | $464.5M |
| FY24 Q4 | $420.9M |
| FY25 Q4 | $404.3M |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 1, 2026.
| Period | Revenue growth, TTM YoY |
|---|---|
| FY20 Q4 | 178.1% |
| FY21 Q4 | 66.4% |
| FY22 Q4 | 10.5% |
| FY23 Q4 | -3.2% |
| FY24 Q4 | -9.4% |
| FY25 Q4 | -3.9% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 1, 2026.
| Period | Operating margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY19 Q4 | -38.1% |
| FY20 Q4 | -0.6% |
| FY21 Q4 | -28.4% |
| FY22 Q4 | 3.9% |
| FY23 Q4 | 8.3% |
| FY24 Q4 | 9.6% |
| FY25 Q4 | 17.6% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 1, 2026.
| Period | FCF margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY19 Q4 | 15.9% |
| FY20 Q4 | 46.2% |
| FY21 Q4 | 24.1% |
| FY22 Q4 | 24.0% |
| FY23 Q4 | 3.7% |
| FY24 Q4 | 6.7% |
| FY25 Q4 | 7.2% |
Each dollar Gdev took in during FY2025, followed through to profit: what it cost to make, what went on running the business, and what was left after tax.
| Revenue | $404M | |
|---|---|---|
| Other income | $3.6M | 0.9% of revenue |
| Other operating costs | $333M | 82.4% of revenue |
| Operating income | $71.1M | 17.6% of revenue |
| Income tax | $5.4M | 1.3% of revenue |
| Net income | $69.3M | 17.1% of revenue |
| Fiscal year | 2019 Dec 2019 | 2020 Dec 2020 | 2021 Dec 2021 | 2022 Dec 2022 | 2023 Dec 2023 | 2024 Dec 2024 | 2025 Dec 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | |||||||
| Revenue | 94 | 261 | 434 | 480 | 465 | 421 | 404 |
| EBITDA | −35 | −1 | −121 | 26 | 45 | 47 | 78 |
| Operating income | −36 | −2 | −123 | 19 | 38 | 40 | 71 |
| Net income | −36 | −1 | −117 | 7 | 46 | 26 | 69 |
| Diluted EPS | −$0.20 | $0.00 | −$6.40 | $0.37 | $2.30 | $1.38 | $3.77 |
| Growth (year on year) | |||||||
| Revenue | — | +178.1% | +66.4% | +10.5% | −3.2% | −9.4% | −3.9% |
| EBITDA | — | — | — | — | +73.4% | +4.6% | +67.1% |
| Operating income | — | — | — | — | +103.5% | +5.6% | +75.6% |
| Net income | — | — | — | — | — | −44.6% | +171.5% |
| Diluted EPS | — | — | — | — | — | −40.0% | +173.2% |
| Margins | |||||||
| EBITDA margin | −37.8% | −0.4% | −27.8% | 5.4% | 9.6% | 11.1% | 19.3% |
| Operating margin | −38.1% | −0.6% | −28.4% | 3.9% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 17.6% |
| Net margin | −37.9% | −0.3% | −27.1% | 1.5% | 9.9% | 6.1% | 17.1% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 15.9% | 46.2% | 24.1% | 24.0% | 3.7% | 6.7% | 7.2% |
| Cash flow | |||||||
| Cash from operations | 15 | 121 | 106 | 116 | 18 | 29 | 29 |
| Capital spending | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Free cash flow | 15 | 120 | 104 | 115 | 17 | 28 | 29 |
| Stock-based pay | 6 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | 8 | 118 | 101 | 111 | 15 | 27 | 29 |
| Balance sheet | |||||||
| Cash | 18 | 85 | 143 | 87 | 72 | 111 | 63 |
| Total debt | 4 | 0 | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Net debt (negative = net cash) | −14 | −85 | −143 | −87 | −72 | −111 | −63 |
| Diluted shares | — | 18m | 18m | 20m | 20m | 18m | 18m |
| Returned to shareholders | |||||||
| Dividends | 4 | 52 | 160 | — | — | — | 56 |
| Buybacks | — | — | — | — | — | 33 | — |
| Total returned | 4 | 52 | 160 | — | — | 33 | 56 |
| Last 12 months unless stated | GDEV | INSE | MYPS | GMHS | SNAL | CTW | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $404m | $281m | $226m | $105m | $86m | $83m | $166m |
| Revenue growth, last 12 months | −3.9% | −6.5% | −13.3% | −11.3% | −5.6% | −8.7% | 1.6% |
| Revenue growth, 3-year average | — | −1.9% | −9.9% | — | 16.5% | — | 16.5% |
| Revenue growth, latest quarter | — | −24.3% | −7.3% | — | −11.3% | — | 2.0% |
| Gross margin | — | 59.6% | — | 52.7% | 33.7% | 65.5% | 57.8% |
| Operating margin | 17.6% | 14.3% | −17.9% | 1.3% | −13.9% | −8.9% | −5.6% |
| Operating margin, 3-year average | — | 11.3% | −11.6% | — | −6.2% | — | −11.6% |
| Net margin | 17.1% | −3.3% | −20.6% | 4.1% | −11.2% | −5.0% | −4.9% |
| Cash from operations / revenue | 7.3% | 14.5% | 8.3% | 5.7% | 9.5% | −3.8% | 7.9% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 7.2% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 5.0% | 9.5% | −4.3% | 6.7% |
| Free-cash-flow margin, 3-year average | — | 6.0% | 12.5% | — | 6.6% | — | 6.0% |
| Stock pay / revenue | 0.2% | 2.3% | 4.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 2.4% | 2.4% |
| Change in share count | −0.2% | −0.4% | 1.4% | 3.6% | — | 4.0% | 1.4% |
| Measure | Company | Peer median | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth Growth | -3.9% | 7.1% | 7 of 12 |
| Change in growth rate Growth | +5.4pp | +2.6pp | 5 of 12 |
| Operating margin Profitability | 17.6% | -2.4% | 3 of 12 |
| Net margin Profitability | 17.1% | -4.8% | 2 of 12 |
| Free-cash-flow margin Cash generation | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6 of 12 |
| Stock pay as % of revenue Cash generation | 0.2% | 2.4% | 2 of 10 |
| Change in share count Balance sheet | -0.2% | 3.6% | 3 of 10 |
| Days sales outstanding Balance sheet | 39 days | 33 days | 8 of 10 |
Rank 1 = best in the group (for spending, debt and dilution, lower ranks first).
| Manager | Value | Shares | Share of 13F value | Shares QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mubadala Investment Co Pjsc | $4.7M | 374K | 95.7% | 0.0% |
| Advisorshares Investments LLC | $148,936 | 12K | 3.0% | ▼ 7.6% |
| UBS Group AG | $47,200 | 4K | 1.0% | ▼ 26.4% |
| Acadian Asset Management LLC | $12,000 | 1K | 0.2% | ▼ 16.0% |
| Tower Research Capital LLC (TRC) | $3,220 | 0K | 0.1% | New |
| Quarry LP | $226 | 0K | 0.0% | New |
| Morgan Stanley | $151 | 0K | 0.0% | 0.0% |
From Form 13F filings with the SEC ( quarterly data sets), as reported by each manager for June 30, 2026 and filed up to 45 days later. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M only, so this is not Gdev Inc.'s complete shareholder register. Values are as reported by the filers .
| Insider | Date | Trade | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reingold Anton See Remarks | September 28, 2026 | Sell | 18,209 | $11.03 | $200,845 |
| Holive Marie Juliette France Director | June 3, 2026 | Sell | 10,654 | $13.45 | $143,296 |
From insiders' Form 4 filings with the SEC. Excludes awards, option exercises and shares withheld for tax. "Pre-set plan" means the filing marks the trade as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. See every insider trade since five years ago, on a price chart.
| Data | Last updated | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | Exchange closing prices | |
| News and updates | Company releases and SEC 8-K filings | |
| Analyst estimates | Aggregated analyst estimates | |
| Valuation and scores | Our models, from the filed figures |
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