undamentalytics Newsletter
Sign in

Warrior MET Coal, Inc. (HCC) stock

Add to watchlist

Add holding +

NYSE: HCC NYSE Coal & Consumable Fuels Next results ~November 4, 2026

B Fundamentals grade

Warrior MET Coal, Inc. is a US-listed company in the coal & consumable fuels industry. Its financial year ends in December.

Stock price today

Loading chart…

Third-party market data · may be delayed

Fair value per share

~$71

Cash-flow model

Base case. Range ~$55–$93 across our lower- and higher-growth cases (7.7%–17.7% a year).

Price vs value

Modestly overvalued

The price is inside our value range, 15% above our base value.

Price used: $82.23, November 2, 2026

Warrior MET Coal, Inc. valuation: adjust assumptions and compare models →

Who’s trading

What company insiders, investment funds and members of Congress have been doing with the stock, from their own filings.

  • Insiders0 buying, 4 selling0 purchases and 10 sales by directors and officers, last 12 monthsInsider trades
  • Funds178 adding, 165 cuttingOf 52 active managers that changed their stake, 18 added; quarter to June 30, 2026Fund buyers and sellers

Value diary

Our note on each quarter Warrior MET Coal files

Where Warrior MET Coal stands after its latest 10-Q

Revenue for the twelve months to June 2026 was $1.68bn, up 37.5% on a year earlier, faster than the 11.1% growth a quarter earlier. Free-cash-flow margin rose to 0.9% from -18.4% a year earlier. Operating margin widened to 13.6% from 2.1%. Against its peers on growth, profitability, cash generation and balance sheet, it grades B. It passes 7 of our 7 financial-health checks. Our cash-flow model value is $67.45 a share, against a share price of $85.18.

Source: 10-Q filed August 5, 2026 on SEC EDGAR · Financials · Valuation

Written from the company's filings and our models when each quarter's report arrives. Figures in older notes are as published at the time. Not investment advice.

The Fundamentalytics view

Next results ~November 4, 2026 (estimated)

Warrior MET Coal, Inc.'s trailing-twelve-month revenue grew 37.5% year on year, with a free-cash-flow margin of 0.9%. Where it stands out: revenue growth of 37.5% ranks 1 of 8 coal & consumable fuels companies we cover. Where it lags: days sales outstanding of 57 days ranks 7 of 7 coal & consumable fuels companies we cover.

Our discounted-cash-flow model values the business at ~$71 per share in the base case (~$55–$93 across growth scenarios) — model values under stated assumptions, not a price target.

Current signal Revenue growth accelerating: TTM revenue growth rose to 37.5% (+26.4pp vs the prior quarter).

Assembled from SEC-filed figures — the full workings are on this page and in our methodology. Observations, not recommendations.

Highlights

How we pick these

Strengths

  • Fast growth. Revenue grew 37.5% over the last 12 months, against a median of 4.7% for coal & consumable fuels companies we cover.
  • Growth speeding up. The growth rate is 26.4 points higher than a quarter earlier.
  • Margins widening. Operating margin is up 11.6 points on a year ago.

Things to watch

  • Results due soon. Results are expected around 4 November; the share price can move sharply on the day.
  • Volatile shares. Over the past year the shares showed annualised volatility of 52% and a beta of 0.4 against the S&P 500.
  • Insiders selling. 4 insiders sold $26M of stock over the past 365 days and none bought (96% under pre-set trading plans).
  • Weak cash conversion. Free cash flow was 7% of net income over the last 12 months.
  • Below peers: days sales outstanding. Days sales outstanding of 57 days ranks 7 of 7 coal & consumable fuels companies we cover (median 38 days).
  • Below peers: stock pay as % of revenue. Stock pay as % of revenue of 1.3% ranks 5 of 6 coal & consumable fuels companies we cover (median 0.7%).

Latest results: FY2026 Q2

Filed August 5, 2026
Earnings per share
$1.65 against an average estimate of $1.46: beat by 13.3%
Revenue
$510m, up 71.3% on a year earlier
Share reaction
+10.0% in the first session after the results on August 5, 2026, against -0.4% for the S&P 500
Guidance given
coal sales 13 to 14 (full year 2026); coal production 12.5 to 13.5 (full year 2026)
Next report
November 4, 2026; average EPS estimate $1.39

Warrior MET Coal's figures from its SEC filings and results release; estimates are the analysts' average. Not a recommendation.

Price chart

  • 1 day-4.4%
  • 1 week-3.5%
  • 1 month-8.0%
  • This year-6.5%
  • 1 year+21.7%
  • 5 years+283.2%
  • S&P 500 this year+11.2%

Closing prices to 2026-11-02. Price change only, dividends excluded.

Loading chart…

Third-party market data · may be delayed

At a glance

Trailing twelve months, from SEC filings

Profitability

Revenue (TTM)
$1.7B
Operating margin
13.6%
Net margin
13.0%
EPS (TTM, diluted)
$4.16

Growth

Revenue growth
+37.5%
Change in growth rate
+26.4 pts
Share count change
+0.5%

Cash

Free cash flow (TTM)
$15.5M
FCF margin
0.9%
Stock pay % of revenue
1.3%

Earnings

Last results
August 5, 2026
Next results (est.)
November 4, 2026

News & updates

Updated October 31, 2026

Company announcements, filed results and changes that matter to shareholders.

  1. Insider trade
  2. Insider trade
  3. Results
  4. Guidance

Refreshed hourly when new source data is available. Summaries are checked against company releases and SEC filings. Company announcement headlines are labelled when a checked summary is unavailable.

Valuation

Warrior MET Coal, Inc. valuation models and calculator

What the price is pricing in

The share price implies about 16.6% a year of cash-flow growth for five years.That is faster than the 9.7% a year revenue growth Warrior MET Coal has delivered.

Read with care: free cash flow has swung sharply in the past year (often a one-off tax, legal or working-capital item), so the cash-flow base behind this reading may be unusually low or high.

  • Priced in16.6%
  • Last 12 months37.5%
  • 3 years a year1.1%
  • 5 years a year9.7%

Our cash-flow model with every input fixed except growth over the next five years, solved for the growth at which the model value equals the share price ($83.31, Nov 3, 2026). Cash-flow growth then fades to 2.5% a year; discount rate 8.5%. Delivered figures are revenue growth from SEC filings. This is a model exercise, not investment advice or a forecast of the share price. All companies

Fundamentalytics rating

model v1.6 · 2026-11-03
Hold12-month view
12-month price target
~$71
Price used
$83.31close November 3, 2026
Implied change
▼ 14%
Uncertainty
Medium

How we got here: a discounted-cash-flow model of Warrior MET Coal, Inc.'s free cash flow after stock-based pay with after-tax interest added back ($113M, FY2026 Q2 TTM), growing 20.3% and 12.1% in the next two years (forecasts, guidance and its record), then back to 12.7% by year five, and fading to 2.5%, discounted at 8.5%. Lower and higher growth cases span ~$55–~$93 ; that spread sets a 25% margin before we rate Buy or Sell.

Produced by Fundamentalytics' automated valuation model on November 3, 2026, using delayed market prices. Rating meanings, methodology and conflicts: recommendations disclosure and research disclaimer. General research, not personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances. Prices can fall as well as rise.

Our value per share comes from a discounted-cash-flow model of Warrior MET Coal, Inc.'s free cash flow after stock-based pay ( $113M, FY2026 Q2 TTM, with after-tax interest added back): growth for five years as below (the first two years from forecasts, guidance and the company's record), fading to 2.5%, discounted at 8.5%, then cash added and debt and other claims subtracted. These are model values under stated assumptions, not price targets or recommendations.

Valuation models

We value Warrior MET Coal, Inc. as an operating company, with every model that fits that kind of business. Cost of equity 9.5%: the 10-year Treasury yield (4.9%) plus a beta of 1.01 times a 4.5% equity risk premium.

Value per share by model
Model Value per share In the combined value?
Cash-flow model (DCF) Free cash flow to the firm (after stock pay, with after-tax interest added back), grown then faded to 2.5%, discounted at 8.5% as the firm rate, less debt and other claims. ~$71 ~$55–$93 Primary model, counts double
Growth cash-flow model Revenue for this year and next from analysts' consensus, then growth fading to 2.5%; the operating margin moving to profitable peers'; investment needed per dollar of growth from peers; reduced by a failure probability. For young or fast-growing companies. The starting margin is normalized to between -100% and 60%; net margin is a proxy when operating income is not tagged. Uses analysts' consensus estimates (third-party data), not our forecasts. ~$52 ~$38–$64 Included
Forward price-to-earnings vs peers Next year's consensus earnings per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) forward price-to-earnings. Uses analysts' consensus estimates (third-party data), not our forecasts. ~$72 ~$61–$88 Included
Residual income Book value plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, fading over ten years. ~$220 ~$160–$320 Left out: far from the other models (more than 3x away from their median)
Justified price-to-book Book value times (return on equity - growth) / (cost of equity - growth): steady-state returns. ~$150 ~$130–$180 Included
Combined value Weighted average of the models that apply: the primary model (cash-flow model (dcf)) counts double. Models more than 5x or less than 0.2x the share price, or more than 3x away from the other models' median, are left out. ~$84 ~$52–$150 4 models

Different models fail in different ways, so where several apply we average them rather than trust one. Peer-based models compare Warrior MET Coal, Inc. with Coal & Consumable Fuels in our coverage, using third-party market data. Model values are estimates under stated assumptions, updated as new filings arrive; not price targets or investment advice. How each model works.

What moves the value

  • Revenue growth 5 points lower ▼ −21%
  • Revenue growth 5 points higher ▲ +27%
  • Free-cash-flow margin 1 point lower ▼ −57%
  • Discount rate 1 point higher ▼ −14%
Value per share under different assumptions
Discount rate ↓ / growth → −5% growth0% growth5% growth10% growth15% growth20% growth
7% $34$45$59$78$103$136
8.5% $26$34$45$59$76$99
10% $22$28$36$47$60$78

Valuation multiples over time Market data may be delayed

At fiscal year end 201720182019202020212022202320242025Now
Share price$14.87$18.32$18.68$19.11$23.28$32.83$59.62$53.78$87.93$82.23
Market value$785m$969m$962m$978m$1.2bn$1.7bn$3.1bn$2.8bn$4.6bn$4.3bn
+ Net debt (− = net cash)$310m$263m$146m$168m−$56m−$527m−$585m−$338m−$146m−$148m
Enterprise value$1.1bn$1.2bn$1.1bn$1.1bn$1.1bn$1.2bn$2.5bn$2.5bn$4.5bn$4.2bn
Multiples
Price / sales 0.7x0.7x0.8x1.2x1.1x1.0x1.9x1.8x3.5x2.6x
Price / earnings 1.7x1.4x3.2x—7.9x2.6x6.5x11.2x81.2x19.8x
Price / free cash flow 2.3x2.1x2.3x38.9x4.1x2.7x14.8x——n/m
EV / EBITDA 2.2x2.0x2.3x12.6x3.0x1.3x3.8x6.1x19.1x9.5x

Market value uses the period's diluted share count; figures for each fiscal year use that year's results and the price at year end. "Now" uses today's price and the last twelve months.

Moat

63 /100

Moderate moat

How hard Warrior MET Coal's competitive advantage looks for rivals to wear away, judged from 10 years of its own filings: returns on capital, pricing power, profit durability, cash conversion and discipline.

  • Returns on capital 20 / 20

    Cash operating profit has been a median 20.4% of total assets over 8 years.

  • Pricing power 6 / 20

    Gross margin has been a median 41.1%, moving by 13.1 percentage points (standard deviation) across 9 years.

  • Durability 10 / 20

    Operating margin has been a median 30.4%; its worst year was -5.3%.

  • Cash conversion 16 / 20

    Free cash flow was positive in 8 of 9 years, at a median 14.0% of revenue.

  • Discipline 16 / 20

    The diluted share count rose 2.9% over five years; stock-based pay has been a median 1.1% of revenue.

AI disruption exposure: Medium. In this industry, AI could change how the product is made or sold, without replacing the core asset. The score above includes a 5-point deduction for that exposure (68 before it).

A rules-based reading of reported figures, not a forecast and not investment advice. How the score is built: methodology.

Forecasts and guidance

Next results: November 4, 2026, after the close. Analysts expect revenue of $504m and EPS of $1.39 (range $0.93 to $1.84) for the quarter.

Analysts' consensus

Fiscal yearEPSGrowthRevenueGrowth
Current $6.64 +509% $2.0bn +53%
Next $7.01 +6% $2.2bn +11%

Next year's EPS estimate has moved −2.8% in 90 days, across 4 analysts.

Earnings against estimates

Quarter toEstimateActualSurprise
Jun 2026 $1.46 $1.65 +13.3%
Mar 2026 $1.44 $1.37 −4.4%
Dec 2025 $0.59 $0.44 −25.2%
Sept 2025 −$0.51 $0.70 +236.3%

Adjusted EPS as companies report it, against the average analyst estimate.

Management guidance

Earnings release, August 5, 2026
  • Coal sales full year 2026 13m to 14m Raised
    “Coal sales 13.0 - 14.0 million short tons” source
  • Coal production full year 2026 12.5m to 13.5m Raised
    “Coal production 12.5 - 13.5 million short tons” source
  • Cash cost of sales (free-on-board port) full year 2026 95 to 105 Non-GAAP
    “Cash cost of sales (free-on-board port) $95 - $105 per short ton” source
  • Capital expenditures for sustaining existing mines full year 2026 $105m to $115m
    “Capital expenditures for sustaining existing mines $105 - $115 million” source
  • Capital expenditures for Blue Creek project full year 2026 $50m to $75m
    “Capital expenditures for Blue Creek project $50 - $75 million” source
  • Depreciation and depletion full year 2026 $225m to $250m
    “Depreciation and depletion $225 - $250 million” source
Show 3 more items
  • Selling, general and administrative expenses full year 2026 $75m to $85m
    “Selling, general and administrative expenses $75 - $85 million” source
  • Interest expense full year 2026 $20m to $25m
    “Interest expense $20 - $25 million” source
  • Interest income full year 2026 $3m to $8m
    “Interest income $3 - $8 million” source

Figures and quotations are management's, copied from the company's own press release (SEC 8-K exhibit) and checked word for word against it. Forward-looking statements are the company's expectations, not ours and not advice; guidance can change or be missed.

How our valuation uses these forecasts

Our cash-flow model grows Warrior MET Coal, Inc.'s revenue by +20.3% next year and +12.1% the year after, then fades back toward its own record by year five. Next year's rate weighs analysts' consensus (+25.5%, weight 60%) and the company's own record (+12.7%, weight 40%) . How the weights are set.

Analyst recommendations

7 analysts, Oct 2026
Buy457%
Hold343%
Sell00%

Monthly trend

  1. Oct 2026437
  2. Sep 2026437
  3. Aug 2026437
  4. Jul 2026437

Counts of recommendations published by analysts covering Warrior MET Coal, Inc., by month. Source: Aggregated broker recommendations (third-party data). Aggregated counts only: we do not reproduce any firm's recommendation or price target, and these are not Fundamentalytics ratings.

Positioning

Short interest
10.6%
of tradable shares
Days to cover
6.3
at average volume
Short interest, 1 month
+1%
to September 30, 2026
Held by institutions
100%
of shares
Held by insiders
1.8%
of shares
Employees
1,485
full time

Consensus figures average analysts' published estimates (third-party data); guidance is the company's own. Neither is our forecast. Short interest is reported twice a month and lags. Market data may be delayed.

This section is general information, not investment advice or a personal recommendation, and it does not take account of your objectives or circumstances. Forecasts and guidance are estimates, not promises: companies miss their own guidance and analysts' figures are often revised. Prices can fall as well as rise, and you can lose money. See our disclaimer.

Share-price performance

Market data may be delayed

What moved the share price

Last 12 months +21.7%

$67.59 on October 31, 2025 to $82.23

ThenNowEffect
Revenue (last 12 months) $1.2bn $1.7bn +37.5%
Net margin 3.3% 13.0% +295.5%
P/E multiple 87.9x 19.8x −77.5%
Share count 52m 53m −0.5%

Biggest factor: p/e multiple.

Last 3 years +70.3%

$48.28 on November 3, 2023 to $82.23

ThenNowEffect
Revenue (last 12 months) $1.6bn $1.7bn +3.5%
Net margin 28.5% 13.0% −54.2%
P/E multiple 5.4x 19.8x +265.1%
Share count 52m 53m −1.6%

Biggest factor: p/e multiple.

The effects multiply back to the price change exactly. Results are the last 12 months as known on each date (filings assumed public 45 days after quarter end).

Return and risk by year

Calendar year 202120222023202420252026 to date
Return
HCC+22%+41%+82%−10%+64%−7%
Industry peers (median)+196%+73%+40%−14%+22%−26%
S&P 500+29%−18%+26%+25%+18%+11%
Months that ended higher
HCC58%58%58%58%67%36%
S&P 50075%42%67%75%75%46%
Largest fall from a high during the year
HCC−38%−36%−23%−30%−29%−30%
S&P 500−5%−25%−10%−8%−19%−9%

Worst fall since April 13, 2017: 65% from May 3, 2019 to March 27, 2020. Getting back needed a 184% gain, reached on October 5, 2021, 557 days after the low.

Price behaviour

52-week range
$64.58 – $110.18
From 52-week high
−25.4%
vs 50-day average
−12.0%
vs 200-day average
−8.5%
Volatility (1 year)
52%
Beta vs S&P 500
0.36

Volatility is the annualised standard deviation of daily returns. Beta 1.5 means the shares typically moved 1.5% for each 1% move in the S&P 500 over the past year. Prices to November 2, 2026.

Share price after results

Next day
4 up, 8 down
typical move ±7.0%
After a week
4 up, 8 down
typical move ±11.5%
After a month
7 up, 5 down
typical move ±13.1%
Results releasedNext dayS&P 500 next day5 days21 days
August 5, 2026 +10.0% −0.4% +18.8% +26.8%
April 30, 2026 −4.2% +1.3% −2.3% +18.1%
February 12, 2026 −4.8% −1.5% −6.2% −6.4%
November 5, 2025 +25.4% −0.7% +29.8% +26.0%
August 6, 2025 +10.2% +0.7% +18.0% +12.2%
April 30, 2025 −6.7% +0.7% −5.6% −6.4%
February 13, 2025 −5.9% +1.1% −12.2% −8.0%
October 30, 2024 +1.4% −2.3% +18.9% +13.1%
August 1, 2024 −10.2% −3.3% −11.8% −11.2%
May 1, 2024 −4.2% +0.6% −5.0% +0.2%
February 14, 2024 −1.3% +1.6% −3.2% −8.8%
November 1, 2023 0.0% +3.0% −6.3% +19.9%

From the close before the release date to the close 1, 5 and 21 trading days after it, so releases before the open and after the close are both captured. Past moves don't predict future ones.

Options strategies

All options ideas

How Warrior MET Coal, Inc.’s listed options are priced, and three ways to use them that follow from our valuation. Quotes are delayed, read November 2, 2026. Check the live chain at your broker before trading.

Cash-secured put

Not offered: fundamentals grade B (needs B+ or better).

We suggest selling a put only on well-rated companies, at a strike where the price you would pay if assigned (strike less premium) is at or below our fair value.

Covered call

Not offered: no liquid call at or above our price target — the model says the upside is worth more than any listed strike.

For holders: sell a call at a strike at or above our fair value, so the shares are only sold at a price the model calls full value.

Collar

Not offered: no liquid put and call pair for the same expiry.

For holders of a stock trading at or above our fair value: buy a put for a floor and sell a call to pay for it.

General research, not personal advice. Options can lose you more than you expect and are not suitable for everyone: put sellers can be made to buy shares that keep falling, call sellers give up gains above the strike, and results or news can move prices sharply. Chances shown are approximations from each option’s delta. Spreads, fees and early assignment are not modelled.

Warrior MET Coal, Inc. in five measures

Fundamentals grade B
Growth Profitability Cash Balance sheet Value

Growth, profitability, cash generation and balance sheet are percentiles against the companies we cover in the same industry, from SEC filings (100 = best). Value compares the share price with our modelled value range (50 = at our base value; higher = cheaper). A description of reported data and our model — not a quality score or advice.

Fundamentals

Revenue (TTM) Warrior MET Coal, Inc.
$1.2B $1.4B $1.6B $1.8B FY23 Q3 FY24 Q2 FY25 Q1 FY26 Q2 Revenue (TTM), FY23 Q3: $1.7B Revenue (TTM), FY23 Q4: $1.7B Revenue (TTM), FY24 Q1: $1.7B Revenue (TTM), FY24 Q2: $1.7B Revenue (TTM), FY24 Q3: $1.6B Revenue (TTM), FY24 Q4: $1.5B Revenue (TTM), FY25 Q1: $1.3B Revenue (TTM), FY25 Q2: $1.2B Revenue (TTM), FY25 Q3: $1.2B Revenue (TTM), FY25 Q4: $1.3B Revenue (TTM), FY26 Q1: $1.5B Revenue (TTM), FY26 Q2: $1.7B $1.7B

Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 26, 2026.

View chart data
Period Revenue (TTM)
FY23 Q3 $1.7B
FY23 Q4 $1.7B
FY24 Q1 $1.7B
FY24 Q2 $1.7B
FY24 Q3 $1.6B
FY24 Q4 $1.5B
FY25 Q1 $1.3B
FY25 Q2 $1.2B
FY25 Q3 $1.2B
FY25 Q4 $1.3B
FY26 Q1 $1.5B
FY26 Q2 $1.7B
Revenue growth, TTM YoY Warrior MET Coal, Inc.
-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% FY23 Q3 FY24 Q2 FY25 Q1 FY26 Q2 Revenue growth, TTM YoY, FY23 Q3: -8.4% Revenue growth, TTM YoY, FY23 Q4: -3.6% Revenue growth, TTM YoY, FY24 Q1: -10.7% Revenue growth, TTM YoY, FY24 Q2: 3.9% Revenue growth, TTM YoY, FY24 Q3: -4.0% Revenue growth, TTM YoY, FY24 Q4: -9.0% Revenue growth, TTM YoY, FY25 Q1: -20.9% Revenue growth, TTM YoY, FY25 Q2: -27.5% Revenue growth, TTM YoY, FY25 Q3: -23.1% Revenue growth, TTM YoY, FY25 Q4: -14.1% Revenue growth, TTM YoY, FY26 Q1: 11.1% Revenue growth, TTM YoY, FY26 Q2: 37.5% 37.5%

Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 26, 2026.

View chart data
Period Revenue growth, TTM YoY
FY23 Q3 -8.4%
FY23 Q4 -3.6%
FY24 Q1 -10.7%
FY24 Q2 3.9%
FY24 Q3 -4.0%
FY24 Q4 -9.0%
FY25 Q1 -20.9%
FY25 Q2 -27.5%
FY25 Q3 -23.1%
FY25 Q4 -14.1%
FY26 Q1 11.1%
FY26 Q2 37.5%
Operating margin (TTM) Warrior MET Coal, Inc.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% FY23 Q3 FY24 Q2 FY25 Q1 FY26 Q2 Operating margin (TTM), FY23 Q3: 31.7% Operating margin (TTM), FY23 Q4: 32.3% Operating margin (TTM), FY24 Q1: 28.8% Operating margin (TTM), FY24 Q2: 27.3% Operating margin (TTM), FY24 Q3: 24.7% Operating margin (TTM), FY24 Q4: 16.7% Operating margin (TTM), FY25 Q1: 6.7% Operating margin (TTM), FY25 Q2: 2.1% Operating margin (TTM), FY25 Q3: 0.6% Operating margin (TTM), FY25 Q4: 3.5% Operating margin (TTM), FY26 Q1: 9.7% Operating margin (TTM), FY26 Q2: 13.6% 13.6%

Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 26, 2026.

View chart data
Period Operating margin (TTM)
FY23 Q3 31.7%
FY23 Q4 32.3%
FY24 Q1 28.8%
FY24 Q2 27.3%
FY24 Q3 24.7%
FY24 Q4 16.7%
FY25 Q1 6.7%
FY25 Q2 2.1%
FY25 Q3 0.6%
FY25 Q4 3.5%
FY26 Q1 9.7%
FY26 Q2 13.6%
FCF margin (TTM) Warrior MET Coal, Inc.
-20% -10% 0% 10% 20% FY23 Q3 FY24 Q2 FY25 Q1 FY26 Q2 FCF margin (TTM), FY23 Q3: 15.4% FCF margin (TTM), FY23 Q4: 12.5% FCF margin (TTM), FY24 Q1: 5.3% FCF margin (TTM), FY24 Q2: 8.1% FCF margin (TTM), FY24 Q3: 3.2% FCF margin (TTM), FY24 Q4: -5.9% FCF margin (TTM), FY25 Q1: -11.5% FCF margin (TTM), FY25 Q2: -18.4% FCF margin (TTM), FY25 Q3: -12.2% FCF margin (TTM), FY25 Q4: -6.9% FCF margin (TTM), FY26 Q1: -8.5% FCF margin (TTM), FY26 Q2: 0.9% 0.9%

Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 26, 2026.

View chart data
Period FCF margin (TTM)
FY23 Q3 15.4%
FY23 Q4 12.5%
FY24 Q1 5.3%
FY24 Q2 8.1%
FY24 Q3 3.2%
FY24 Q4 -5.9%
FY25 Q1 -11.5%
FY25 Q2 -18.4%
FY25 Q3 -12.2%
FY25 Q4 -6.9%
FY26 Q1 -8.5%
FY26 Q2 0.9%

Data: SEC EDGAR XBRL company facts (as filed in 10-K/10-Q); forms 10-K, 10-K/A, 10-Q. Generated November 3, 2026. Definitions in our methodology.

Where the money goes

FY2025, from the 10-K

Each dollar Warrior MET Coal took in during FY2025, followed through to profit: what it cost to make, what went on running the business, and what was left after tax.

  1. Revenue $1.3B
  2. Other income $11.3M · 0.9%
  3. Cost of revenue $982M · 75.0%
  4. Gross profit $328M · 25.0%
  5. Selling, general and admin $65.7M · 5.0%
  6. Other operating costs $216M · 16.5%
  7. Operating income $45.7M · 3.5%
  8. Net income $57M · 4.4%

Shares of revenue. Source: Warrior MET Coal's 10-K for FY2025, as filed with the SEC. "Other" lines are what the reported lines leave unexplained. Other income is income outside operations, such as investment gains.

Financial statements

US$ millions unless shown otherwise. Fiscal years, plus the last twelve months (LTM) when newer.

Fiscal year 2016 Dec 2016 2017 Dec 2017 2018 Dec 2018 2019 Dec 2019 2020 Dec 2020 2021 Dec 2021 2022 Dec 2022 2023 Dec 2023 2024 Dec 2024 2025 Dec 2025 LTM Jun 2026
Income
Revenue 298 1,169 1,378 1,268 783 1,059 1,739 1,677 1,525 1,310 1,681
Gross profit — 577 661 548 158 505 1,028 766 518 328 540
EBITDA — 499 605 481 91 385 917 669 409 234 440
Operating income — 423 508 383 −27 244 801 541 255 46 229
Net income −50 455 697 302 −36 151 641 479 251 57 219
Diluted EPS — $8.62 $13.17 $5.86 −$0.70 $2.93 $12.40 $9.20 $4.79 $1.08 $4.16
Growth (year on year)
Revenue — +292.8% +17.9% −8.0% −38.3% +35.3% +64.2% −3.6% −9.0% −14.1% +37.5%
EBITDA — — +21.4% −20.6% −81.1% +323.5% +138.0% −27.0% −38.9% −42.7% +132.0%
Operating income — — +20.0% −24.6% −107.1% — +228.8% −32.4% −52.9% −82.1% +808.1%
Net income — — +53.1% −56.7% −111.9% — +325.0% −25.4% −47.6% −77.3% +443.7%
Diluted EPS — — +52.8% −55.5% −111.9% — +323.2% −25.8% −47.9% −77.5% +440.9%
Margins
Gross margin — 49.3% 48.0% 43.2% 20.1% 47.7% 59.1% 45.7% 34.0% 25.0% 32.1%
EBITDA margin — 42.7% 43.9% 37.9% 11.6% 36.4% 52.7% 39.9% 26.8% 17.9% 26.2%
Operating margin — 36.2% 36.9% 30.2% −3.5% 23.0% 46.1% 32.3% 16.7% 3.5% 13.6%
Net margin −16.7% 38.9% 50.6% 23.8% −4.6% 14.2% 36.9% 28.5% 16.4% 4.4% 13.0%
Free-cash-flow margin — 29.2% 33.2% 33.6% 3.2% 27.7% 36.6% 12.5% −5.9% −6.9% 0.9%
Cash flow
Cash from operations — 435 559 533 113 352 842 701 367 229 301
Capital spending — 93 102 107 87 58 205 492 457 320 286
Free cash flow — 342 458 426 25 294 637 209 −90 −91 15
Stock-based pay — 4 6 6 8 9 18 18 22 20 22
Free cash flow after stock pay — 338 451 420 18 284 619 191 −112 −111 −7
Balance sheet
Cash 150 35 206 193 212 396 829 738 492 300 302
Total debt 7 346 469 339 380 340 303 153 154 154 155
Net debt (negative = net cash) −143 310 263 146 168 −56 −527 −585 −338 −146 −148
Diluted shares — 53m 53m 51m 51m 51m 52m 52m 52m 53m 53m
Returned to shareholders
Dividends — 797 361 240 10 10 80 61 44 18 17
Buybacks — 0 38 13 0 0 — — — — —
Total returned — 797 399 253 10 10 80 61 44 18 17

Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL company facts (US and foreign periodic filings); column headings link to the filing. EBITDA is operating income plus depreciation and amortisation. Free cash flow is cash from operations minus capital spending. Growth is left blank when last year's figure was a loss or under 2% of revenue. Share counts and EPS are restated for stock splits. A dash means the company didn't report the figure.

Financial health

7 of 7 checks passed · June 30, 2026
What it owns · $2.9bn
Short-term assets $918mLonger-term assets $2.0bn
What it owes, and who funded it · $2.9bn
Short-term liabilities $234mLonger-term liabilities $377mShareholders' equity $2.3bn
  • Short-term assets cover short-term liabilities $918m of assets due within a year against $234m of liabilities due within a year.
  • Short-term assets cover long-term liabilities $918m short-term assets against $377m of longer-dated liabilities.
  • More cash than debt $302m of cash against $155m of debt.
  • Debt below 40% of shareholders' equity Debt is 7% of equity.
  • Debt burden no higher than five years ago Debt to equity moved from 39% to 7% over five years.
  • A year's operating cash flow covers at least 20% of debt $301m of operating cash flow against $155m of debt.
  • Operating profit covers interest at least five times over Operating income of $229m against $13m of interest.

From Warrior MET Coal, Inc.'s latest balance sheet as filed. Checks are fixed, documented rules (methodology), counted only where the company reports the figures — a dot means the filing doesn't break the item out. Descriptions of reported data, not advice.

Dividends, buybacks and capital spending

Dividends (TTM)
$17.4M
Diluted share count
+0.5%
year over year
Total shareholder yield
0.4%
dividends 0.4% + buybacks 0.0% of market value
Dividend payout ratio
8%
of net income paid out
Sales & admin spending
4.4%
of revenue
Days sales outstanding
57 days
receivables vs revenue

Competitors: side by side with peers

Closest by revenue in coal & consumable fuels
Last 12 months unless stated HCC AMR ARLP CCJ BTU CNR Median
Revenue, last 12 months $1.7bn $2.1bn $2.2bn $2.5bn $4.0bn $4.3bn $2.1bn
Revenue growth, last 12 months 37.5% −12.9% −5.1% 8.9% −0.7% 28.7% 2.0%
Revenue growth, 3-year average 1.1% −15.8% −6.3% — −10.5% 18.8% −3.6%
Revenue growth, latest quarter 71.3% −10.4% 0.7% — 12.7% 3.5% 3.5%
Gross margin 32.1% — — 27.9% — — 23.2%
Operating margin 13.6% −2.2% 14.7% 17.8% −5.6% 1.9% 5.1%
Operating margin, 3-year average 14.3% 4.3% 16.7% 0.9% 4.7% — 4.3%
Net margin 13.0% −2.2% 12.3% 16.9% −4.6% 2.3% 4.3%
Cash from operations / revenue 17.9% 6.7% 28.2% 40.4% 5.5% 13.2% 15.6%
Free-cash-flow margin 0.9% −0.1% 16.4% 30.9% −4.9% 6.1% 3.5%
Free-cash-flow margin, 3-year average −3.1% 6.9% 14.5% 25.9% 1.2% 9.3% 6.3%
Stock pay / revenue 1.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.4%
Change in share count 0.5% −1.7% — −0.1% −12.9% 26.1% 0.2%

Median of all 8 companies we cover in coal & consumable fuels. Shaded: best of the six on that line (lowest for stock pay and share-count growth). 3-year figures average the last three 12-month periods; 3-year growth is compound annual. Source: SEC filings.

Peer comparison

8 coal & consumable fuels companies
Measure Company Peer median Rank
Revenue growth Growth 37.5% 4.7% 1 of 8
Change in growth rate Growth +26.4pp +2.0pp 1 of 8
Operating margin Profitability 13.6% 8.3% 3 of 8
Net margin Profitability 13.0% 6.2% 2 of 8
Free-cash-flow margin Cash generation 0.9% 6.1% 5 of 8
Stock pay as % of revenue Cash generation 1.3% 0.7% 5 of 6
Long-term debt as % of assets Balance sheet 5.3% 9.7% 2 of 8
Change in share count Balance sheet 0.5% 0.5% 4 of 6
Days sales outstanding Balance sheet 57 days 38 days 7 of 7

Rank 1 = best in the group (for spending, debt and dilution, lower ranks first).

Where the revenue comes from

Fiscal year to December 31, 2025
Products and services
Line of business Revenue Share YoY
Products $1.3B 97.5% ▼ 14.9%
Other $33M 2.5% ▲ 30.8%

From Warrior MET Coal, Inc.'s 10-K filed February 12, 2026, as tagged in the filing. View filing. Indented rows are part of the line above; their share is of that line. In the bars, the faint bar behind is the year before.

Who owns it

Funds buying and selling
Reported value
$4.5B
Institutions reporting
340
Shares held vs prior quarter
▲ 10.9%
Positions opened / closed
50 / 52

Top buyers and sellers, Q2 2026: 178 institutions bought and 165 sold ; the biggest buyer was First Eagle Investment Management, LLC (+7.8M shares) and the biggest seller FMR LLC (−645K). See which funds bought and sold →

Largest reported holders, June 30, 2026
Manager Value Shares Share of 13F value Shares QoQ
First Eagle Investment Management, LLC $630M 7.8M 14.1% New
Blackrock, Inc. $607M 7.5M 13.6% ▲ 0.3%
State Street Corp $328M 4.0M 7.3% ▼ 8.1%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC $267M 3.3M 6.0% ▲ 0.8%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC $193M 2.4M 4.3% ▲ 0.7%
FMR LLC $171M 2.1M 3.8% ▼ 23.5%
Dalal Street, LLC $142M 1.7M 3.2% ▼ 3.7%
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP $136M 1.7M 3.0% ▲ 2.3%
T. Rowe Price Investment Management, Inc. $125M 1.5M 2.8% ▼ 24.9%
Geode Capital Management, LLC $123M 1.5M 2.8% ▲ 4.3%
Allianz Asset Management Gmbh $112M 1.4M 2.5% ▲ 3.3%
Price T Rowe Associates Inc $102M 1.3M 2.3% ▼ 3.7%

From Form 13F filings with the SEC ( quarterly data sets), as reported by each manager for June 30, 2026 and filed up to 45 days later. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M only, so this is not Warrior MET Coal, Inc.'s complete shareholder register. Values are as reported by the filers ; 1 inconsistently scaled filing rows were excluded.

Insider trading activity

Full insider history and chart
Insider purchases History → $0 0 trades by 0 insiders, last 12 months Insider sales History → $26.4M 10 trades by 4 insiders · 96% under pre-set plans
Net ▼ $26.4M net selling
Insider Date Trade Shares Price Value
Scheller Walter J CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER August 24, 2026 Sell pre-set plan 50,000 $110.00 $5.5M
Williams Stephen D. Director August 19, 2026 Sell 4,800 $104.23 $500,304
Scheller Walter J CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER August 19, 2026 Sell pre-set plan 50,000 $105.00 $5.3M
Chopin Brian M CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER August 19, 2026 Sell 3,232 $104.02 $336,193
Gant Kelli K. See remarks June 2, 2026 Sell pre-set plan 20,000 $110.00 $2.2M
Gant Kelli K. See remarks January 12, 2026 Sell pre-set plan 10,000 $100.00 $1M
Scheller Walter J CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER January 12, 2026 Sell pre-set plan 100,000 $100.31 $10M
Chopin Brian M CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER November 13, 2025 Sell 1,498 $80.54 $120,649
Chopin Brian M CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER November 12, 2025 Sell 585 $84.75 $49,579
Scheller Walter J CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER November 6, 2025 Sell pre-set plan 18,966 $75.00 $1.4M

From insiders' Form 4 filings with the SEC. Excludes awards, option exercises and shares withheld for tax. "Pre-set plan" means the filing marks the trade as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. See every insider trade since five years ago, on a price chart.

Earnings dates and SEC filings

Results announcements

Next expected around November 4, 2026 estimated from the company's past filing pattern, not announced

  • August 5, 2026
  • April 30, 2026
  • February 12, 2026
  • November 5, 2025
  • August 6, 2025
  • April 30, 2025

Recent SEC filings

Data status

When each part of this page on Warrior MET Coal, Inc. was last updated.

DataLast updatedSource
Share priceExchange closing prices
Financial statementsSEC 10-K and 10-Q filings
News and updatesCompany releases and SEC 8-K filings
Analyst estimatesAggregated analyst estimates
Valuation and scoresOur models, from the filed figures

How we build and check these figures: methodology and data sources.

Warrior MET Coal, Inc. in brief

What does Warrior MET Coal, Inc. do?
Warrior MET Coal, Inc. is a US-listed company in the coal & consumable fuels industry. Its financial year ends in December.
What is Warrior MET Coal, Inc.'s stock ticker?
Warrior MET Coal, Inc. trades under the ticker HCC on NYSE. This page brings together its financial statements, valuation models, ownership and recent company updates.
What is Warrior MET Coal, Inc.'s revenue, and how fast is it growing?
Over its most recent trailing twelve months, Warrior MET Coal, Inc. reported revenue of $1.7B, 37.5% higher than a year earlier, according to its SEC filings.
What is Warrior MET Coal, Inc.'s free cash flow?
Warrior MET Coal, Inc.'s free-cash-flow margin is 0.9% of revenue over the trailing twelve months, ranking 5 of the 8 coal & consumable fuels companies we cover.
What is Warrior MET Coal, Inc.'s fair value (intrinsic value) per share?
Our discounted-cash-flow model of Warrior MET Coal, Inc.'s free cash flow after stock-based pay gives ~$71 per share in the base case, and ~$55–$93 across growth scenarios. These are model values under stated assumptions — not a price target or a recommendation.
Who are Warrior MET Coal, Inc.'s largest institutional shareholders?
By value reported in 13F filings for June 30, 2026, the largest reported holders are First Eagle Investment Management, LLC, Blackrock, Inc. and State Street Corp. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M, filed up to 45 days after quarter end.
What is Warrior MET Coal, Inc.'s market cap?
On November 2, 2026, Warrior MET Coal, Inc.'s market capitalisation was about $4.3B, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.8 and net debt of -$148M. Market figures come from third-party market data and may be delayed.
Does Warrior MET Coal, Inc. pay a dividend?
Yes: Warrior MET Coal, Inc. paid $17.4M in dividends over the trailing twelve months, a dividend yield of 0.40% and a payout ratio of 7.9%.
How much debt does Warrior MET Coal, Inc. have?
Warrior MET Coal, Inc.'s debt-to-equity ratio is 6.8%, from its latest balance sheet (39.0% five years earlier). The financial health section below sets out its other solvency checks.
Who are Warrior MET Coal, Inc.'s competitors?
In our Coal & Consumable Fuels peer group, the companies closest to Warrior MET Coal, Inc. are Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc., Alliance Resource Partners LP, Cameco Corp, Peabody Energy Corp and Core Natural Resources, Inc. The side-by-side comparison below sets their revenue, margins and growth against Warrior MET Coal, Inc.'s.
Are insiders buying or selling Warrior MET Coal, Inc. stock?
Over the last 12 months, Warrior MET Coal, Inc.'s directors and officers reported 0 open-market purchases and 10 sales on Form 4. The insider trading page charts every trade.
When is Warrior MET Coal, Inc.'s next earnings date?
Around November 4, 2026, estimated from the spacing of its past results announcements (8-K filings). That is an estimate, not a confirmed date — Warrior MET Coal, Inc. announces its own schedule.