Karman Holdings Inc. is a US-listed company in the aerospace & defense industry. Its financial year ends in December.
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~$23
Forward price-to-earnings vs peers
Base case. Range ~$19–$31. Next year's consensus earnings per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) forward price-to-earnings.
No Buy/Hold/Sell rating is issued: valued with our growth model, which doesn't carry a Buy/Hold/Sell rating yet.
Karman Holdings Inc. valuation: adjust assumptions and compare models →
What company insiders, investment funds and members of Congress have been doing with the stock, from their own filings.
Revenue for the twelve months to June 2026 was $590m. Free-cash-flow margin rose to -4.7% from -7.8% a year earlier. The diluted share count is down 11.4% on a year earlier, which lifts each remaining share. It passes 1 of our 3 financial-health checks. Our revenue-to-maturity model value is $16.88 a share, against a share price of $35.90.
Source: 10-Q filed August 11, 2026 on SEC EDGAR · Financials · Valuation
Written from the company's filings and our models when each quarter's report arrives. Figures in older notes are as published at the time. Not investment advice.
Karman Holdings Inc.'s trailing-twelve-month revenue grew 50.2% year on year, with a free-cash-flow margin of -4.7%. Where it stands out: change in share count of -11.4% ranks 1 of 51 aerospace & defense companies we cover. Where it lags: long-term debt as % of assets of 52.0% ranks 46 of 47 aerospace & defense companies we cover.
Current signal Free cash flow diverging from earnings: TTM free cash flow grew 10.0% while net income grew 365.7%: a 356pp divergence.
Assembled from SEC-filed figures — the full workings are on this page and in our methodology. Observations, not recommendations.
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Company announcements, filed results and changes that matter to shareholders.
The company also guided to non-gaap adjusted ebitda of $215.00m to $222.50m for the the full fiscal year 2026.
Our value per share comes from a discounted-cash-flow model of Karman Holdings Inc.'s free cash flow after stock-based pay ( $708,914, FY2026 Q2 TTM, with after-tax interest added back): growth for five years as below (the first two years from forecasts, guidance and the company's record), fading to 2.5%, discounted at 8.5%, then cash added and debt and other claims subtracted. These are model values under stated assumptions, not price targets or recommendations.
We value Karman Holdings Inc. as an operating company, with every model that fits that kind of business. Cost of equity 10.2%: the 10-year Treasury yield (4.9%) plus a beta of 1.16 times a 4.5% equity risk premium.
| Model | Value per share | In the combined value? |
|---|---|---|
| Growth cash-flow model Revenue for this year and next from analysts' consensus, then growth fading to 2.5%; the operating margin moving to profitable peers'; investment needed per dollar of growth from peers; reduced by a failure probability. For young or fast-growing companies. The starting margin is normalized to between -100% and 60%; net margin is a proxy when operating income is not tagged. Uses analysts' consensus estimates (third-party data), not our forecasts. | ~$5.2 ~$1.8–$8.0 | Left out: out of range vs price (0.13x) |
| Forward price-to-earnings vs peers Next year's consensus earnings per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) forward price-to-earnings. Uses analysts' consensus estimates (third-party data), not our forecasts. | ~$23 ~$19–$31 | Included |
| Residual income Book value plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, fading over ten years. | ~$1.8 ~$1.2–$2.8 | Left out: out of range vs price (0.05x) |
| Justified price-to-book Book value times (return on equity - growth) / (cost of equity - growth): steady-state returns. | ~$1.4 ~$1.2–$1.6 | Left out: out of range vs price (0.04x) |
| Forward price-to-sales vs peers Next year's consensus sales per share times peers' typical forward price-to-sales; only when earnings are negative. Uses analysts' consensus estimates (third-party data), not our forecasts. | — | Does not apply: earnings are positive: price-to-earnings is the better measure |
| Revenue-to-maturity model Revenue grown to maturity with the cash margin moving to the industry's; for companies not yet profitable. | — | Does not apply: revenue and margins don't support a positive value |
| Combined value Weighted average of the models that apply: the primary model (growth cash-flow model) counts double. Models more than 5x or less than 0.2x the share price, or more than 3x away from the other models' median, are left out. | ~$23 ~$19–$31 | 1 model |
Different models fail in different ways, so where several apply we average them rather than trust one. Peer-based models compare Karman Holdings Inc. with Aerospace & Defense in our coverage, using third-party market data. Model values are estimates under stated assumptions, updated as new filings arrive; not price targets or investment advice. How each model works.
| At fiscal year end | 2025 | Now |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | $73.17 | $39.13 |
| Market value | $9.7bn | $5.2bn |
| + Net debt (− = net cash) | $473m | $717m |
| Enterprise value | $10.2bn | $5.9bn |
| Multiples | ||
| Price / sales | 20.5x | 8.8x |
| Price / earnings | n/m | 139.4x |
| Price / free cash flow | — | — |
| EV / EBITDA | 87.8x | 43.5x |
Not assessed: fewer than five years of comparable figures in the filings. AI disruption exposure for this industry: Low.
Next results: November 5, 2026, after the close. Analysts expect revenue of $195m and EPS of $0.15 (range $0.13 to $0.18) for the quarter.
| Fiscal year | EPS | Growth | Revenue | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | $0.59 | +58% | $742m | +57% |
| Next | $0.96 | +63% | $952m | +28% |
Next year's EPS estimate has moved +3.9% in 90 days, across 12 analysts.
The consensus EPS forecast for the current fiscal year is +1.6% on 90 days ago. In the last 30 days, 4 analysts raised Karman Holdings Inc.'s forecast and 3 cut it.
Average of analysts' published estimates (third-party data).
| Period | Current fiscal year | Next fiscal year |
|---|---|---|
| 90 days ago | $0.58 | $0.92 |
| 60 days ago | $0.59 | $0.94 |
| 30 days ago | $0.59 | $0.96 |
| 7 days ago | $0.59 | $0.95 |
| Now | $0.59 | $0.96 |
| Quarter to | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026 | $0.13 | $0.14 | +6.8% |
| Dec 2025 | $0.11 | $0.11 | −2.3% |
| Sept 2025 | $0.11 | $0.10 | −10.4% |
Adjusted EPS as companies report it, against the average analyst estimate.
Our cash-flow model grows Karman Holdings Inc.'s revenue by +35.8% next year and +18.3% the year after, then fades back toward its own record by year five. Next year's rate weighs analysts' consensus (+43.9%, weight 55%) , management guidance (+43.0%, weight 19%) and the company's own record (+13.0%, weight 26%) . How the weights are set.
Last 12 months −53.5%
| Part | Then | Now | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (last 12 months) | $392m | $590m | +50.2% |
| Net margin | 2.0% | 6.3% | +210.0% |
| P/E multiple | n/m | 139.4x | −91.2% |
| Share count | 149m | 132m | +12.8% |
Biggest factor: p/e multiple.
| Calendar year | 2026 to date |
|---|---|
| Return | |
| KRMN | −47% |
| Industry peers (median) | −11% |
| S&P 500 | +11% |
| Months that ended higher | |
| KRMN | 18% |
| S&P 500 | 46% |
| Largest fall from a high during the year | |
| KRMN | −74% |
| S&P 500 | −9% |
Worst fall since February 13, 2025: 74% from January 28, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Getting back needed a 283% gain, and the shares have not yet recovered.
| Results released | Next day | S&P 500 next day | 5 days | 21 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 6, 2026 | +5.6% | +0.5% | +9.8% | −27.5% |
| May 12, 2026 | +14.4% | +0.4% | +9.1% | −15.7% |
| March 25, 2026 | −15.5% | −1.2% | −18.8% | −31.0% |
| January 21, 2026 | +5.0% | +1.7% | +8.5% | −23.2% |
| November 6, 2025 | −11.4% | −1.0% | −24.8% | −17.1% |
| August 7, 2025 | −5.8% | +0.7% | +4.8% | +28.3% |
| July 21, 2025 | −6.8% | +0.2% | −9.8% | −10.5% |
| May 13, 2025 | +10.5% | +0.8% | +11.7% | +20.9% |
| April 8, 2025 | +13.8% | +8.8% | +27.5% | +44.2% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 20, 2026.
| Period | Revenue (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY24 Q3 | $331M |
| FY24 Q4 | $345.3M |
| FY25 Q1 | $362.4M |
| FY25 Q2 | $392.4M |
| FY25 Q3 | $428.2M |
| FY25 Q4 | $471.5M |
| FY26 Q1 | $522.6M |
| FY26 Q2 | $589.6M |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 20, 2026.
| Period | Revenue growth, TTM YoY |
|---|---|
| FY25 Q3 | 29.4% |
| FY25 Q4 | 36.6% |
| FY26 Q1 | 44.2% |
| FY26 Q2 | 50.2% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 20, 2026.
| Period | Operating margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY24 Q4 | 18.4% |
| FY25 Q1 | 16.6% |
| FY25 Q2 | 15.8% |
| FY25 Q3 | 15.5% |
| FY25 Q4 | 15.5% |
| FY26 Q1 | 16.2% |
| FY26 Q2 | 16.8% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 20, 2026.
| Period | FCF margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY24 Q4 | 3.3% |
| FY25 Q1 | -2.4% |
| FY25 Q2 | -7.8% |
| FY25 Q3 | -10.0% |
| FY25 Q4 | -9.0% |
| FY26 Q1 | -5.9% |
| FY26 Q2 | -4.7% |
Each dollar Karman took in during FY2025, followed through to profit: what it cost to make, what went on running the business, and what was left after tax.
| Revenue | $472M | |
|---|---|---|
| Cost of revenue | $281M | 59.7% of revenue |
| Gross profit | $190M | 40.3% of revenue |
| Selling, general and admin | $85.7M | 18.2% of revenue |
| Other operating costs | $31.4M | 6.7% of revenue |
| Operating income | $72.9M | 15.5% of revenue |
| Income tax | $15.2M | 3.2% of revenue |
| Interest and other | $40.4M | 8.6% of revenue |
| Net income | $17.4M | 3.7% of revenue |
| Fiscal year | 2022 Dec 2022 | 2023 Dec 2023 | 2024 Dec 2024 | 2025 Dec 2025 | LTM Jun 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | |||||
| Revenue | 226 | 281 | 345 | 472 | 590 |
| Gross profit | 81 | 106 | 132 | 190 | 246 |
| EBITDA | 55 | 76 | 96 | 116 | 135 |
| Operating income | 20 | 48 | 64 | 73 | 99 |
| Net income | −14 | 4 | 13 | 17 | 37 |
| Diluted EPS | −$0.09 | $0.03 | $0.08 | $0.13 | $0.28 |
| Growth (year on year) | |||||
| Revenue | — | +24.0% | +23.0% | +36.6% | +50.2% |
| EBITDA | — | +36.6% | +27.3% | +20.1% | +57.2% |
| Operating income | — | +137.3% | +31.1% | +14.8% | +60.3% |
| Net income | — | — | — | +36.7% | +365.7% |
| Diluted EPS | — | — | — | +62.5% | +425.6% |
| Margins | |||||
| Gross margin | 35.8% | 37.6% | 38.3% | 40.3% | 41.7% |
| EBITDA margin | 24.5% | 27.0% | 27.9% | 24.5% | 23.0% |
| Operating margin | 9.0% | 17.3% | 18.4% | 15.5% | 16.8% |
| Net margin | −6.2% | 1.6% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 6.3% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | −12.0% | 1.3% | 3.3% | −9.0% | −4.7% |
| Cash flow | |||||
| Cash from operations | −6 | 20 | 27 | −22 | 6 |
| Capital spending | 21 | 17 | 15 | 20 | 34 |
| Free cash flow | −27 | 4 | 11 | −42 | −28 |
| Stock-based pay | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 23 |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | −29 | 2 | 10 | −44 | −50 |
| Balance sheet | |||||
| Cash | 7 | 5 | 12 | 34 | 52 |
| Total debt | — | 311 | 341 | 507 | 768 |
| Net debt (negative = net cash) | −7 | 305 | 330 | 473 | 717 |
| Diluted shares | 159m | 167m | 167m | 132m | 132m |
| Quarter | 2024 Q3 Sept 2024 | 2024 Q4 Dec 2024 | 2025 Q1 Mar 2025 | 2025 Q2 Jun 2025 | 2025 Q3 Sept 2025 | 2025 Q4 Dec 2025 | 2026 Q1 Mar 2026 | 2026 Q2 Jun 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | ||||||||
| Revenue | 86 | 91 | 100 | 115 | 122 | 134 | 151 | 182 |
| Gross profit | 34 | 35 | 39 | 47 | 50 | 54 | 64 | 78 |
| EBITDA | 20 | 23 | 19 | 23 | 25 | 34 | 38 | 39 |
| Operating income | 17 | 14 | 10 | 20 | 22 | 21 | 21 | 35 |
| Net income | 4 | 2 | −5 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 14 |
| Diluted EPS | $0.03 | $0.01 | −$0.04 | $0.05 | $0.06 | $0.06 | $0.06 | $0.11 |
| Growth (year on year) | ||||||||
| Revenue | — | +18.5% | +20.6% | +35.3% | +41.7% | +47.4% | +51.0% | +58.2% |
| EBITDA | — | — | −6.9% | +12.3% | +23.2% | +44.0% | +96.1% | +67.6% |
| Operating income | — | — | −26.2% | +10.0% | +25.3% | +46.6% | +115.3% | +73.2% |
| Net income | — | −64.2% | −326.1% | +47.8% | +78.1% | — | — | +106.1% |
| Diluted EPS | — | — | −500.0% | +66.7% | +100.0% | — | — | +120.0% |
| Margins | ||||||||
| Gross margin | 39.3% | 38.1% | 39.4% | 40.9% | 41.0% | 39.9% | 42.2% | 43.0% |
| EBITDA margin | 23.6% | 25.6% | 19.4% | 20.1% | 20.5% | 25.0% | 25.2% | 21.3% |
| Operating margin | 20.2% | 15.8% | 10.0% | 17.5% | 17.9% | 15.7% | 14.2% | 19.1% |
| Net margin | 5.0% | 1.8% | −4.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 7.7% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 6.2% | 3.9% | −18.6% | −18.2% | −5.6% | 3.0% | −4.7% | −9.7% |
| Cash flow | ||||||||
| Cash from operations | 10 | 8 | −14 | −17 | 0 | 9 | 0 | −3 |
| Capital spending | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 14 |
| Free cash flow | 5 | 4 | −19 | −21 | −7 | 4 | −7 | −18 |
| Stock-based pay | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 14 |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | 5 | 3 | −20 | −29 | −16 | 4 | −7 | −32 |
| Last 12 months unless stated | KRMN | LOAR | CDRE | LUNR | RKLB | RDW | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $590m | $586m | $686m | $490m | $769m | $426m | $769m |
| Revenue growth, last 12 months | 50.2% | 29.8% | 19.7% | 116.9% | 52.5% | 63.1% | 15.5% |
| Revenue growth, 3-year average | — | — | 13.6% | 79.7% | 49.2% | 26.9% | 12.6% |
| Revenue growth, latest quarter | 58.2% | 39.4% | 31.8% | 309.8% | 62.0% | 89.6% | 15.8% |
| Gross margin | 41.7% | 52.2% | 41.8% | — | 37.3% | 20.1% | 27.8% |
| Operating margin | 16.8% | 21.9% | 10.1% | −27.5% | −29.1% | −50.5% | 9.0% |
| Operating margin, 3-year average | — | 21.8% | 10.9% | −31.9% | −42.0% | −36.7% | 6.0% |
| Net margin | 6.3% | 11.6% | 5.3% | −26.6% | −21.5% | −57.3% | 5.5% |
| Cash from operations / revenue | 1.0% | 20.7% | 12.9% | −25.8% | −28.9% | −17.9% | 5.5% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | −4.7% | 18.5% | 11.4% | −38.3% | −48.3% | −23.0% | 3.4% |
| Free-cash-flow margin, 3-year average | — | 13.8% | 8.9% | −35.7% | −44.8% | −27.1% | 3.0% |
| Stock pay / revenue | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 4.6% | 10.6% | 17.4% | 1.2% |
| Change in share count | −11.4% | — | 9.0% | 47.4% | 15.7% | 41.9% | 3.9% |
| Measure | Company | Peer median | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth Growth | 50.2% | 15.5% | 9 of 57 |
| Change in growth rate Growth | +6.0pp | +2.2pp | 15 of 57 |
| Gross margin Profitability | 41.7% | 28.3% | 13 of 46 |
| Operating margin Profitability | 16.8% | 8.5% | 9 of 51 |
| Net margin Profitability | 6.3% | 5.5% | 26 of 57 |
| Free-cash-flow margin Cash generation | -4.7% | 3.4% | 37 of 57 |
| Stock pay as % of revenue Cash generation | 3.9% | 1.5% | 34 of 53 |
| Long-term debt as % of assets Balance sheet | 52.0% | 22.1% | 46 of 47 |
| Change in share count Balance sheet | -11.4% | 2.4% | 1 of 51 |
| Days sales outstanding Balance sheet | 71 days | 53 days | 36 of 45 |
Rank 1 = best in the group (for spending, debt and dilution, lower ranks first).
| Line of business | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tactical Missile and Integrated Defense Systems | $172M | 36.4% | ▲ 48.5% |
| Hypersonic and Strategic Missile Defense | $150M | 31.8% | ▲ 30.9% |
| Space and Launch | $150M | 31.8% | ▲ 30.2% |
From Karman Holdings Inc.'s 10-K filed April 3, 2026, as tagged in the filing. View filing. Indented rows are part of the line above; their share is of that line. In the bars, the faint bar behind is the year before.
| Manager | Value | Shares | Share of 13F value | Shares QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FMR LLC | $343M | 6.9M | 5.5% | ▼ 18.0% |
| Blackrock, Inc. | $272M | 5.4M | 4.4% | ▲ 9.8% |
| State Street Corp | $255M | 5.1M | 4.1% | ▲ 79.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management LLC | $239M | 4.8M | 3.8% | ▲ 4.4% |
| First Trust Advisors LP | $237M | 4.7M | 3.8% | ▲ 63.9% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC | $216M | 4.3M | 3.5% | ▼ 0.1% |
| Ameriprise Financial Inc | $210M | 4.2M | 3.4% | ▲ 48.4% |
| Alyeska Investment Group, L.P. | $179M | 3.6M | 2.9% | New |
| Donaldson Capital Management, LLC | $175M | 3.5M | 2.8% | 0.0% |
| Gcm Grosvenor Holdings, LLC | $166M | 3.3M | 2.7% | 0.0% |
| Khis Custodian LP | $142M | 2.8M | 2.3% | ▼ 27.8% |
| Lexington Partners L.P. | $129M | 2.6M | 2.1% | ▼ 41.5% |
From Form 13F filings with the SEC ( quarterly data sets), as reported by each manager for June 30, 2026 and filed up to 45 days later. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M only, so this is not Karman Holdings Inc.'s complete shareholder register. Values are as reported by the filers ; 1 inconsistently scaled filing rows were excluded.
| Insider | Date | Trade | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Twitty Stephen Director | September 16, 2026 | Buy | 275 | $36.79 | $10,117 |
| Petryszyn Mary D Director | September 16, 2026 | Buy | 500 | $37.44 | $18,720 |
| Stinnett David Director | September 16, 2026 | Buy | 27,000 | $37.32 | $1M |
| Koblinski Anthony Chief Executive Officer | December 12, 2025 | Sell pre-set plan | 75,000 | $69.31 | $5.2M |
| Koblinski Anthony Chief Executive Officer | December 5, 2025 | Sell pre-set plan | 75,000 | $66.51 | $5M |
| Koblinski Anthony Chief Executive Officer | November 28, 2025 | Sell pre-set plan | 75,000 | $67.40 | $5.1M |
| Koblinski Anthony Chief Executive Officer | November 21, 2025 | Sell pre-set plan | 75,000 | $58.48 | $4.4M |
| Willis Michael Chief Financial Officer | November 17, 2025 | Sell pre-set plan | 115,000 | $58.63 | $6.7M |
| Sawhill Stephanie Chief Growth Officer | November 13, 2025 | Sell pre-set plan | 62,000 | $63.93 | $4M |
| Beaudoin Jonathan Chief Operating Officer | November 13, 2025 | Sell pre-set plan | 74,000 | $63.69 | $4.7M |
| Raduenz Brian Director | November 12, 2025 | Sell pre-set plan | 90,000 | $68.00 | $6.1M |
From insiders' Form 4 filings with the SEC. Excludes awards, option exercises and shares withheld for tax. "Pre-set plan" means the filing marks the trade as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. See every insider trade since five years ago, on a price chart.
| Data | Last updated | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | Exchange closing prices | |
| Financial statements | SEC 10-K and 10-Q filings | |
| News and updates | Company releases and SEC 8-K filings | |
| Analyst estimates | Aggregated analyst estimates | |
| Valuation and scores | Our models, from the filed figures |
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