Lincoln National Corp is a US-listed company in the life & health insurance industry. Its financial year ends in December.
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Third-party market data · may be delayed
~$86
Valuation models combined (5)
Base case. Range ~$60–$99. Weighted average of 5 models (residual income, justified price-to-book, price-to-book vs return on equity (peers), forward price-to-earnings vs peers, dividend discount (two-stage)), the residual income counting double.
Undervalued
The price is below our entire value range; our base value is 106% above it.
Price used: $41.63, November 2, 2026
Lincoln National Corp valuation: adjust assumptions and compare models →
What company insiders, investment funds and members of Congress have been doing with the stock, from their own filings.
Revenue for the twelve months to June 2026 was $19.3bn, up 7.9% on a year earlier, faster than -1.0% a quarter earlier. The diluted share count is up 11.4% on a year earlier, which dilutes existing holders. Our valuation models combined value is $80.28 a share, against a share price of $39.83.
Source: 10-Q filed July 30, 2026 on SEC EDGAR · Financials · Valuation
Written from the company's filings and our models when each quarter's report arrives. Figures in older notes are as published at the time. Not investment advice.
Where it lags: change in share count of 11.4% ranks 16 of 16 life & health insurance companies we cover.
Current signal Revenue growth accelerating: TTM revenue growth rose to 7.9% (+8.9pp vs the prior quarter).
Assembled from SEC-filed figures — the full workings are on this page and in our methodology. Observations, not recommendations.
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Third-party market data · may be delayed
Company announcements, filed results and changes that matter to shareholders.
We value Lincoln National Corp as an insurer, with every model that fits that kind of business. Cost of equity 9.2%: the 10-year Treasury yield (4.9%) plus a beta of 0.94 times a 4.5% equity risk premium.
| Model | Value per share | In the combined value? |
|---|---|---|
| Residual income Book value plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, fading over ten years. | ~$84 ~$60–$120 | Primary model, counts double |
| Justified price-to-book Book value times (return on equity - growth) / (cost of equity - growth): steady-state returns. | ~$89 ~$76–$110 | Included |
| Price-to-book vs return on equity (peers) The price-to-book that peers with this return on equity trade on, from a line fitted across peers. | ~$99 ~$59–$140 | Included |
| Price-to-book vs peers Book value per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) price-to-book. | ~$0.2 ~$45–$120 | Left out: out of range vs price (0.01x) |
| Forward price-to-earnings vs peers Next year's consensus earnings per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) forward price-to-earnings. Uses analysts' consensus estimates (third-party data), not our forecasts. | ~$60 ~$53–$91 | Included |
| Dividend discount (two-stage) Dividends for five years at the growth the business can fund, then a steady payout and growth. | ~$97 ~$81–$120 | Included |
| Combined value Weighted average of the models that apply: the primary model (residual income) counts double. Models more than 5x or less than 0.2x the share price, or more than 3x away from the other models' median, are left out. | ~$86 ~$60–$99 | 5 models |
Different models fail in different ways, so where several apply we average them rather than trust one. Peer-based models compare Lincoln National Corp with life and health insurers in our coverage, using third-party market data. Model values are estimates under stated assumptions, updated as new filings arrive; not price targets or investment advice. How each model works.
Weak moat
How hard Lincoln National's competitive advantage looks for rivals to wear away, judged from 10 years of its own filings: returns on capital, pricing power, profit durability, cash conversion and discipline.
Net income has been a median 0.5% of total assets over 10 years.
Net margin has been a median 9.8%; its worst year was -13.6%.
The diluted share count rose 1.3% over five years.
AI disruption exposure: Medium. In this industry, AI could change how the product is made or sold, without replacing the core asset. The score above includes a 5-point deduction for that exposure (26 before it).
Next results: November 5, 2026, before the open. Analysts expect revenue of $5.0bn and EPS of $1.95 (range $1.85 to $2.10) for the quarter.
| Fiscal year | EPS | Growth | Revenue | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | $7.90 | −4% | $19.8bn | +4% |
| Next | $8.72 | +10% | $20.5bn | +4% |
Next year's EPS estimate has moved +3.8% in 90 days, across 13 analysts.
The consensus EPS forecast for the current fiscal year is +3.2% on 90 days ago. In the last 30 days, 0 analysts raised Lincoln National Corp's forecast and 3 cut it.
Average of analysts' published estimates (third-party data).
| Period | Current fiscal year | Next fiscal year |
|---|---|---|
| 90 days ago | $7.65 | $8.40 |
| 60 days ago | $7.87 | $8.62 |
| 30 days ago | $7.99 | $8.69 |
| 7 days ago | $7.94 | $8.76 |
| Now | $7.90 | $8.72 |
| Quarter to | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026 | $1.96 | $2.24 | +14.5% |
| Mar 2026 | $1.60 | $1.66 | +4.0% |
| Dec 2025 | $1.90 | $2.21 | +16.5% |
| Sept 2025 | $1.87 | $2.04 | +9.3% |
Adjusted EPS as companies report it, against the average analyst estimate.
Last 12 months +3.8%
| Part | Then | Now | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (last 12 months) | $17.9bn | $19.3bn | +7.9% |
| Net margin | 6.3% | 12.2% | +92.4% |
| P/E multiple | 6.2x | 3.5x | −44.3% |
| Share count | 176m | 196m | −10.2% |
Biggest factor: net margin.
Last 3 years +98.5%
| Part | Then | Now | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (last 12 months) | $15.6bn | $19.3bn | +23.6% |
| P/S multiple | 0.2x | 0.4x | +84.1% |
| Share count | 171m | 196m | −12.8% |
Biggest factor: p/s multiple. Loss-making at one end, so the split uses price/sales.
| Calendar year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 to date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return | ||||||
| LNC | +40% | −54% | −6% | +25% | +48% | −2% |
| Industry peers (median) | +16% | −3% | +20% | +28% | +9% | +15% |
| S&P 500 | +29% | −18% | +26% | +25% | +18% | +11% |
| Months that ended higher | ||||||
| LNC | 67% | 25% | 42% | 58% | 67% | 55% |
| S&P 500 | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 75% | 46% |
| Largest fall from a high during the year | ||||||
| LNC | −19% | −60% | −46% | −17% | −26% | −29% |
| S&P 500 | −5% | −25% | −10% | −8% | −19% | −9% |
Worst fall since November 2, 2015: 79% from February 1, 2018 to March 20, 2020. Getting back needed a 381% gain, and the shares have not yet recovered.
| Results released | Next day | S&P 500 next day | 5 days | 21 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 30, 2026 | +10.1% | +2.4% | +12.6% | +4.5% |
| May 7, 2026 | −4.8% | +0.5% | −8.2% | −6.8% |
| February 12, 2026 | +6.2% | −1.5% | +3.6% | −13.1% |
| October 30, 2025 | +4.9% | −0.8% | +2.0% | +2.0% |
| July 31, 2025 | +7.8% | −2.0% | +11.9% | +25.5% |
| May 8, 2025 | −1.9% | +0.6% | +0.3% | −1.6% |
| February 6, 2025 | +9.7% | −0.6% | +16.2% | +1.2% |
| October 31, 2024 | −0.2% | −1.5% | +5.0% | +4.9% |
| August 1, 2024 | −9.8% | −3.3% | −12.5% | −3.6% |
| May 2, 2024 | +1.5% | +2.2% | +5.6% | +20.3% |
| February 8, 2024 | −5.3% | +0.6% | +3.2% | +0.4% |
| November 1, 2023 | +6.2% | +3.0% | +3.7% | +10.8% |
How Lincoln National Corp’s listed options are priced, and three ways to use them that follow from our valuation. Quotes are delayed, read November 2, 2026. Check the live chain at your broker before trading.
Option prices imply clearly more movement than the shares have shown. That strengthens the case for selling options.
Our rule for “rich”: implied at least 1.2× 60-day realised (beyond measurement noise), above 1-year realised (not just a calm spell), and in the top 20% of our coverage that day. Never with results inside the option’s life. These are our conventions, built on research showing option prices usually imply more movement than follows, most when the gap is wide. How we judge this.
Not offered: fundamentals grade C (needs B+ or better).
We suggest selling a put only on well-rated companies, at a strike where the price you would pay if assigned (strike less premium) is at or below our fair value.
Not offered: no liquid call at or above our price target — the model says the upside is worth more than any listed strike.
For holders: sell a call at a strike at or above our fair value, so the shares are only sold at a price the model calls full value.
Not offered: the shares trade below our fair value: a collar caps upside the model expects.
For holders of a stock trading at or above our fair value: buy a put for a floor and sell a call to pay for it.
General research, not personal advice. Options can lose you more than you expect and are not suitable for everyone: put sellers can be made to buy shares that keep falling, call sellers give up gains above the strike, and results or news can move prices sharply. Chances shown are approximations from each option’s delta. Spreads, fees and early assignment are not modelled.
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 20, 2026.
| Period | Revenue (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY23 Q3 | $15.2B |
| FY23 Q4 | $11.6B |
| FY24 Q1 | $11.9B |
| FY24 Q2 | $14.2B |
| FY24 Q3 | $14.1B |
| FY24 Q4 | $18.4B |
| FY25 Q1 | $19B |
| FY25 Q2 | $17.9B |
| FY25 Q3 | $18.4B |
| FY25 Q4 | $18.2B |
| FY26 Q1 | $18.8B |
| FY26 Q2 | $19.3B |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 20, 2026.
| Period | Revenue growth, TTM YoY |
|---|---|
| FY23 Q3 | -24.9% |
| FY23 Q4 | -39.3% |
| FY24 Q1 | -34.7% |
| FY24 Q2 | -9.4% |
| FY24 Q3 | -7.2% |
| FY24 Q4 | 58.4% |
| FY25 Q1 | 59.2% |
| FY25 Q2 | 26.4% |
| FY25 Q3 | 30.4% |
| FY25 Q4 | -1.2% |
| FY26 Q1 | -1.0% |
| FY26 Q2 | 7.9% |
| Fiscal year | 2009 Dec 2009 | 2010 Dec 2010 | 2011 Dec 2011 | 2012 Dec 2012 | 2013 Dec 2013 | 2014 Dec 2014 | 2015 Dec 2015 | 2016 Dec 2016 | 2017 Dec 2017 | 2018 Dec 2018 | 2019 Dec 2019 | 2020 Dec 2020 | 2021 Dec 2021 | 2022 Dec 2022 | 2023 Dec 2023 | 2024 Dec 2024 | 2025 Dec 2025 | LTM Jun 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | ||||||||||||||||||
| Revenue | 8.5 | 10.4 | 10.6 | 11.5 | 12.0 | 13.6 | 13.6 | 13.3 | 14.3 | 16.4 | 17.3 | 17.4 | 17.7 | 18.8 | 11.6 | 18.4 | 18.2 | 19.3 |
| Net income | −0.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 3.8 | 1.4 | −0.8 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 2.4 |
| Diluted EPS | −$1.85 | $2.30 | $0.69 | $4.56 | $4.52 | $5.67 | $4.51 | $5.03 | $9.22 | $7.40 | $4.38 | $2.56 | $19.96 | $7.78 | −$4.92 | $18.41 | $5.83 | $12.06 |
| Growth (year on year) | ||||||||||||||||||
| Revenue | −7.9% | +22.5% | +2.2% | +8.4% | +3.8% | +13.2% | +0.1% | −1.8% | +7.0% | +15.2% | +5.1% | +1.0% | +1.6% | +6.2% | −38.1% | +58.4% | −1.2% | +7.9% |
| Net income | — | — | −75.5% | +494.1% | −5.3% | +21.8% | −23.8% | +3.3% | +74.4% | −21.1% | −46.0% | −43.7% | +657.1% | −64.1% | −155.4% | — | −64.1% | +107.7% |
| Diluted EPS | — | — | −70.0% | +560.9% | −0.9% | +25.4% | −20.5% | +11.5% | +83.3% | −19.7% | −40.8% | −41.6% | +679.7% | −61.0% | −163.2% | — | −68.3% | +86.4% |
| Margins | ||||||||||||||||||
| Net margin | −5.7% | 8.7% | 2.1% | 11.4% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 14.6% | 10.0% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 21.3% | 7.2% | −6.5% | 17.8% | 6.5% | 12.2% |
| Cash flow | ||||||||||||||||||
| Cash from operations | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 1.9 | −2.7 | 0.5 | −0.2 | 3.6 | −2.1 | −2.0 | −0.2 | −1.3 |
| Stock-based pay | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | — |
| Balance sheet | ||||||||||||||||||
| Cash | 4.0 | 2.7 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 5.8 | 9.5 | 10.2 |
| Total debt | 0.4 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 6.9 | 6.3 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 6.9 |
| Net debt (negative = net cash) | −3.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 5.0 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 0.4 | −3.2 | −3.3 |
| Diluted shares | 286m | 319m | 315m | 288m | 275m | 268m | 255m | 237m | 226m | 220m | 202m | 194m | 190m | 173m | 171m | 173m | 186m | 196m |
| Returned to shareholders | ||||||||||||||||||
| Dividends | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Buybacks | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — |
| Total returned | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Quarter | 2024 Q3 Sept 2024 | 2024 Q4 Dec 2024 | 2025 Q1 Mar 2025 | 2025 Q2 Jun 2025 | 2025 Q3 Sept 2025 | 2025 Q4 Dec 2025 | 2026 Q1 Mar 2026 | 2026 Q2 Jun 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | ||||||||
| Revenue | 4,111 | 5,062 | 4,691 | 4,044 | 4,555 | 4,922 | 5,306 | 4,542 |
| Net income | −528 | 1,687 | −722 | 699 | 445 | 754 | −172 | 1,332 |
| Diluted EPS | −$3.29 | $9.66 | −$4.41 | $3.80 | $2.12 | $3.96 | −$1.10 | $6.72 |
| Growth (year on year) | ||||||||
| Revenue | −2.2% | +624.2% | +14.0% | −21.5% | +10.8% | −2.8% | +13.1% | +12.3% |
| Net income | −161.9% | — | −159.1% | −21.9% | — | −55.3% | — | +90.6% |
| Diluted EPS | −168.7% | — | −163.6% | −25.6% | — | −59.0% | — | +76.8% |
| Margins | ||||||||
| Net margin | −12.8% | 33.3% | −15.4% | 17.3% | 9.8% | 15.3% | −3.2% | 29.3% |
| Cash flow | ||||||||
| Cash from operations | −27 | 222 | −272 | 1,013 | −1,141 | 233 | 138 | −558 |
| Last 12 months unless stated | LNC | CRBG | AFL | PFG | UNM | ATHS | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $19.3bn | $20.1bn | $18.1bn | $16.6bn | $13.3bn | $29.0bn | $11.1bn |
| Revenue growth, last 12 months | 7.9% | 29.5% | 13.6% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 45.9% | 6.1% |
| Revenue growth, 3-year average | 7.3% | −1.0% | −1.0% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 8.2% | 4.9% |
| Revenue growth, latest quarter | 12.3% | 43.6% | −1.0% | 25.4% | 0.3% | 70.8% | 6.9% |
| Operating margin | — | — | 22.9% | — | 12.3% | — | 12.3% |
| Operating margin, 3-year average | — | — | 22.2% | — | 12.1% | — | 15.0% |
| Net margin | 12.2% | 4.5% | 26.9% | 11.9% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 6.5% |
| Cash from operations / revenue | −6.9% | 9.2% | 14.6% | 33.3% | 6.2% | 21.8% | 14.6% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | — | 5.7% | — | 32.5% | 5.2% | — | 19.4% |
| Free-cash-flow margin, 3-year average | — | 8.8% | — | 31.9% | 8.7% | — | 21.3% |
| Stock pay / revenue | — | — | — | 0.5% | — | 0.1% | 0.8% |
| Change in share count | 11.4% | −12.8% | −5.7% | −4.0% | −8.2% | — | −4.7% |
| Measure | Company | Peer median | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth Growth | 7.9% | 7.0% | 8 of 18 |
| Change in growth rate Growth | +8.9pp | +1.5pp | 5 of 18 |
| Net margin Profitability | 12.2% | 6.9% | 6 of 18 |
| Change in share count Balance sheet | 11.4% | -4.7% | 16 of 16 |
Rank 1 = best in the group (for spending, debt and dilution, lower ranks first).
| Line of business | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Group Protection | $6.1B | 33.5% | ▲ 6.8% |
| Life | $5.9B | 32.4% | ▼ 6.2% |
| Annuities | $4.9B | 26.7% | ▲ 3.3% |
| Retirement Plan Services | $1.3B | 7.3% | ▲ 4.1% |
From Lincoln National Corp's 10-K filed February 19, 2026, as tagged in the filing. View filing. Indented rows are part of the line above; their share is of that line. In the bars, the faint bar behind is the year before.
| Manager | Value | Shares | Share of 13F value | Shares QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bain Capital Prairie, LLC | $663M | 18.8M | 11.4% | 0.0% |
| Blackrock, Inc. | $656M | 18.6M | 11.3% | ▲ 0.3% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC | $369M | 10.4M | 6.3% | ▲ 0.2% |
| Dimensional Fund Advisors LP | $303M | 8.6M | 5.2% | ▲ 10.5% |
| Vanguard Capital Management LLC | $295M | 8.3M | 5.1% | ▲ 0.9% |
| Massachusetts Financial Services Co | $227M | 6.4M | 3.9% | ▲ 8.4% |
| State Street Corp | $216M | 6.1M | 3.7% | ▲ 3.6% |
| Price T Rowe Associates Inc | $177M | 5.0M | 3.0% | ▲ 12.8% |
| Jennison Associates LLC | $133M | 3.8M | 2.3% | ▼ 1.3% |
| Morgan Stanley | $128M | 3.6M | 2.2% | ▼ 1.6% |
| Geode Capital Management, LLC | $113M | 3.2M | 1.9% | ▲ 1.1% |
| LSV Asset Management | $89.8M | 2.5M | 1.5% | ▼ 0.8% |
From Form 13F filings with the SEC ( quarterly data sets), as reported by each manager for June 30, 2026 and filed up to 45 days later. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M only, so this is not Lincoln National Corp's complete shareholder register. Values are as reported by the filers .
| Insider | Date | Trade | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Woodroffe Sean EVP, Ch Ppl Comms Ent Srvc Off | August 17, 2026 | Sell | 11,000 | $45.28 | $498,080 |
| Kelly Gary C Director | August 12, 2026 | Sell | 15,007 | $26.50 | $397,674 |
| Beazer Craigt T EVP & General Counsel | June 5, 2026 | Sell | 30,000 | $34.45 | $1M |
| Woodroffe Sean EVP, Ch Ppl Comms Ent Srvc Off | June 1, 2026 | Sell | 25,000 | $34.75 | $868,750 |
| Charters Jennifer EVP, Chief Information Officer | March 13, 2026 | Buy | 300 | $32.61 | $9,783 |
| Woodroffe Sean EVP, Ch Ppl Comms Ent Srvc Off | March 9, 2026 | Sell | 8,000 | $32.74 | $261,920 |
| Woodroffe Sean EVP, Ch Ppl Comms Ent Srvc Off | March 2, 2026 | Sell | 10,000 | $34.46 | $344,600 |
| Lincoln National Life Insurance Co /In/ 10% owner | February 25, 2026 | Buy | 2,254,486 | $11.09 | $25M |
| Reid James Waltman EVP Workplace Solutions | February 18, 2026 | Sell | 3,050 | $41.81 | $127,520 |
| Lincoln National Life Insurance Co /In/ 10% owner | December 19, 2025 | Buy | 2,300,098 | $10.87 | $25M |
| Kennedy John Christopher EVP, Chief Dist. & Brand Off | December 10, 2025 | Sell | 3,519 | $44.15 | $155,364 |
| Ryan Owen Director | November 12, 2025 | Buy | 2,000 | $42.17 | $84,340 |
From insiders' Form 4 filings with the SEC. Excludes awards, option exercises and shares withheld for tax. "Pre-set plan" means the filing marks the trade as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. See every insider trade since five years ago, on a price chart.
No trades in Lincoln National Corp disclosed in the last 12 months; 12 earlier trades on record.
Next expected around October 29, 2026 estimated from the company's past filing pattern, not announced
| Data | Last updated | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | Exchange closing prices | |
| Financial statements | SEC 10-K and 10-Q filings | |
| News and updates | Company releases and SEC 8-K filings | |
| Analyst estimates | Aggregated analyst estimates | |
| Valuation and scores | Our models, from the filed figures |
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