Mbia Inc is a US-listed company in the property & casualty insurance industry. Its financial year ends in December.
What company insiders, investment funds and members of Congress have been doing with the stock, from their own filings.
Revenue for the twelve months to June 2026 was $94m, down 8.7% on a year earlier, against growth of 109.3% a quarter earlier. That puts it 44 of 47 for growth among the property & casualty insurance companies we cover. The diluted share count is up 3.0% on a year earlier, which dilutes existing holders.
Our models give no value for Mbia at present, so past values are not shown.
Source: 10-Q filed August 6, 2026 on SEC EDGAR · Financials · Valuation
Written from the company's filings and our models when each quarter's report arrives. Figures in older notes are as published at the time. Not investment advice.
Mbia Inc's trailing-twelve-month revenue fell 8.7% year on year, with a free-cash-flow margin of 45.7%. Where it lags: change in growth rate of -118.0pp ranks 48 of 48 property & casualty insurance companies we cover.
Current signal Revenue growth decelerating: TTM revenue growth slowed to -8.7% (-118.0pp vs the prior quarter).
Assembled from SEC-filed figures — the full workings are on this page and in our methodology. Observations, not recommendations.
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Third-party market data · may be delayed
Company announcements, filed results and changes that matter to shareholders.
No model value for Mbia Inc at the moment. Current status: no valuation model gives a value we can rate yet. Available reported financials are shown below.
We value Mbia Inc as an insurer, with every model that fits that kind of business. Cost of equity 8.2%: the 10-year Treasury yield (4.9%) plus a beta of 0.72 times a 4.5% equity risk premium.
| Model | Value per share | In the combined value? |
|---|---|---|
| Residual income Book value plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, fading over ten years. | — | Does not apply: book value or earnings not available |
| Justified price-to-book Book value times (return on equity - growth) / (cost of equity - growth): steady-state returns. | — | Does not apply: return on equity is not positive |
| Price-to-book vs return on equity (peers) The price-to-book that peers with this return on equity trade on, from a line fitted across peers. | — | Does not apply: book value or return on equity not available |
| Price-to-book vs peers Book value per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) price-to-book. | — | Does not apply: no positive book value in the latest twelve months |
| Price-to-earnings vs peers Earnings per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) price-to-earnings. | — | Does not apply: no positive earnings in the latest twelve months |
| Dividend discount (two-stage) Dividends for five years at the growth the business can fund, then a steady payout and growth. | — | Does not apply: no current dividend figure in the company's tagged filings |
| Combined value Weighted average of the models that apply: the primary model (residual income) counts double. Models more than 5x or less than 0.2x the share price, or more than 3x away from the other models' median, are left out. | — | No model applies: the filings don’t yet support a value. |
Different models fail in different ways, so where several apply we average them rather than trust one. Peer-based models compare Mbia Inc with property, casualty and specialty insurers in our coverage, using third-party market data. Model values are estimates under stated assumptions, updated as new filings arrive; not price targets or investment advice. How each model works.
Weak moat
How hard Mbia's competitive advantage looks for rivals to wear away, judged from 10 years of its own filings: returns on capital, pricing power, profit durability, cash conversion and discipline.
Net income has been a median -6.8% of total assets over 10 years.
Net margin has been a median -181.7%; its worst year was -648.9%.
The diluted share count fell 0.6% over five years; stock-based pay has been a median 0.2% of revenue.
AI disruption exposure: Medium. In this industry, AI could change how the product is made or sold, without replacing the core asset. The score above includes a 5-point deduction for that exposure (45 before it).
Next results: November 4, 2026, after the close. Analysts expect revenue of $26m and EPS of −$0.10 (range −$0.18 to −$0.03) for the quarter.
| Fiscal year | EPS | Growth | Revenue | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | −$0.49 | −208% | $109m | +31% |
| Next | −$0.45 | +10% | $96m | −12% |
The consensus EPS forecast for the current fiscal year is +65.0% on 90 days ago. In the last 30 days, 0 analysts raised Mbia Inc's forecast and 1 cut it.
Average of analysts' published estimates (third-party data).
| Period | Current fiscal year | Next fiscal year |
|---|---|---|
| 90 days ago | −$0.30 | −$0.42 |
| 60 days ago | −$0.30 | −$0.42 |
| 30 days ago | −$0.30 | −$0.42 |
| 7 days ago | −$0.48 | −$0.44 |
| Now | −$0.49 | −$0.45 |
| Quarter to | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026 | −$0.13 | −$0.14 | −12.0% |
| Mar 2026 | −$0.15 | −$0.16 | −3.2% |
| Dec 2025 | −$0.14 | −$0.24 | −77.8% |
| Sept 2025 | −$0.03 | $1.03 | +3533.3% |
Adjusted EPS as companies report it, against the average analyst estimate.
Last 12 months −32.9%
| Part | Then | Now | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (last 12 months) | $103m | $94m | −8.7% |
| P/S multiple | 3.2x | 2.4x | −24.3% |
| Share count | 48m | 50m | −3.0% |
Biggest factor: p/s multiple. Loss-making at one end, so the split uses price/sales.
Last 3 years +58.8%
| Part | Then | Now | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (last 12 months) | $104m | $94m | −9.6% |
| P/S multiple | 1.4x | 2.4x | +76.2% |
| Share count | 50m | 50m | −0.2% |
Biggest factor: p/s multiple. Loss-making at one end, so the split uses price/sales.
| Calendar year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 to date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return | ||||||
| MBI | +140% | −19% | +9% | +6% | +11% | −36% |
| Industry peers (median) | +14% | +1% | +9% | +31% | +7% | +10% |
| S&P 500 | +29% | −18% | +26% | +25% | +18% | +11% |
| Months that ended higher | ||||||
| MBI | 67% | 58% | 58% | 33% | 33% | 46% |
| S&P 500 | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 75% | 46% |
| Largest fall from a high during the year | ||||||
| MBI | −30% | −45% | −56% | −52% | −47% | −44% |
| S&P 500 | −5% | −25% | −10% | −8% | −19% | −9% |
Worst fall since November 2, 2015: 64% from January 12, 2022 to October 23, 2023. Getting back needed a 175% gain, reached on February 11, 2025, 477 days after the low.
| Results released | Next day | S&P 500 next day | 5 days | 21 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 6, 2026 | −3.8% | +0.5% | −3.2% | −10.2% |
| May 7, 2026 | −6.4% | +0.5% | −1.1% | −3.1% |
| February 26, 2026 | +3.6% | −1.0% | +6.3% | −11.9% |
| November 4, 2025 | +9.5% | −0.8% | +10.9% | +12.0% |
| August 6, 2025 | −6.5% | +0.7% | −5.9% | +10.7% |
| May 8, 2025 | −7.3% | +0.6% | +5.0% | −4.5% |
| February 27, 2025 | −15.9% | −0.1% | −27.8% | −30.6% |
| November 7, 2024 | +4.2% | +1.2% | +38.7% | +42.5% |
| August 6, 2024 | −9.9% | +0.2% | −13.0% | −17.1% |
| May 9, 2024 | −9.3% | +0.7% | −12.5% | −22.4% |
| February 28, 2024 | −4.4% | +0.2% | −5.7% | −1.0% |
| November 2, 2023 | −6.5% | +2.8% | −0.4% | +5.1% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 29, 2026.
| Period | Revenue (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY23 Q3 | $95M |
| FY23 Q4 | $7M |
| FY24 Q1 | $18M |
| FY24 Q2 | -$47M |
| FY24 Q3 | -$26M |
| FY24 Q4 | $42M |
| FY25 Q1 | $43M |
| FY25 Q2 | $103M |
| FY25 Q3 | $89M |
| FY25 Q4 | $80M |
| FY26 Q1 | $90M |
| FY26 Q2 | $94M |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 29, 2026.
| Period | Revenue growth, TTM YoY |
|---|---|
| FY22 Q3 | -53.2% |
| FY22 Q4 | -18.5% |
| FY23 Q1 | -26.1% |
| FY23 Q2 | -41.9% |
| FY23 Q3 | -23.4% |
| FY23 Q4 | -95.5% |
| FY24 Q1 | -84.5% |
| FY24 Q4 | 500.0% |
| FY25 Q1 | 138.9% |
| FY25 Q4 | 90.5% |
| FY26 Q1 | 109.3% |
| FY26 Q2 | -8.7% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 29, 2026.
| Period | FCF margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY23 Q3 | -790.5% |
| FY23 Q4 | -2785.7% |
| FY24 Q1 | -1050.0% |
| FY24 Q2 | 334.0% |
| FY24 Q3 | 696.2% |
| FY24 Q4 | -419.0% |
| FY25 Q1 | -439.5% |
| FY25 Q2 | -172.8% |
| FY25 Q3 | 57.3% |
| FY25 Q4 | 47.5% |
| FY26 Q1 | 53.3% |
| FY26 Q2 | 45.7% |
| Fiscal year | 2009 Dec 2009 | 2010 Dec 2010 | 2011 Dec 2011 | 2012 Dec 2012 | 2013 Dec 2013 | 2014 Dec 2014 | 2015 Dec 2015 | 2016 Dec 2016 | 2017 Dec 2017 | 2018 Dec 2018 | 2019 Dec 2019 | 2020 Dec 2020 | 2021 Dec 2021 | 2022 Dec 2022 | 2023 Dec 2023 | 2024 Dec 2024 | 2025 Dec 2025 | LTM Jun 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | ||||||||||||||||||
| Revenue | 2,954 | 894 | −1,557 | 2,435 | 1,209 | 1,270 | 853 | 294 | 433 | 162 | 280 | 282 | 189 | 154 | 7 | 42 | 80 | 94 |
| Net income | 634 | 53 | −1,319 | 1,234 | 250 | 569 | 180 | −338 | −1,605 | −296 | −359 | −578 | −445 | −195 | 477 | 435 | −177 | −145 |
| Diluted EPS | $2.99 | $0.26 | −$6.85 | $6.33 | $1.29 | $2.76 | $1.06 | −$2.54 | −$13.50 | −$3.33 | −$4.43 | −$9.78 | −$8.99 | −$3.92 | −$10.18 | −$9.43 | −$3.58 | −$2.91 |
| Growth (year on year) | ||||||||||||||||||
| Revenue | — | −69.7% | −274.2% | — | −50.3% | +5.0% | −32.8% | −65.5% | +47.3% | −62.6% | +72.8% | +0.7% | −33.0% | −18.5% | −95.5% | +500.0% | +90.5% | −8.7% |
| Net income | — | −91.6% | <−999% | — | −79.7% | +127.6% | −68.4% | −287.8% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | −8.8% | −140.7% | −122.1% |
| Diluted EPS | — | −91.3% | <−999% | — | −79.6% | +114.0% | −61.6% | −339.6% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | −121.4% |
| Margins | ||||||||||||||||||
| Net margin | 21.5% | 5.9% | 84.7% | 50.7% | 20.7% | 44.8% | 21.1% | −115.0% | −370.7% | −182.7% | −128.2% | −205.0% | −235.4% | −126.6% | >999% | >999% | −221.3% | −154.3% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | −74.4% | −106.4% | 169.0% | −42.5% | 151.0% | −27.2% | −6.7% | −51.0% | −150.8% | −197.5% | −131.4% | −138.3% | 269.8% | −271.4% | <−999% | −419.0% | 47.5% | 45.7% |
| Cash flow | ||||||||||||||||||
| Cash from operations | −2,192 | −946 | −2,627 | −1,027 | 1,829 | −333 | −54 | −149 | −652 | −319 | −368 | −390 | 511 | −418 | −195 | −176 | 38 | 43 |
| Capital spending | 6 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Free cash flow | −2,198 | −951 | −2,632 | −1,034 | 1,826 | −346 | −57 | −150 | −653 | −320 | −368 | −390 | 510 | −418 | −195 | −176 | 38 | 43 |
| Stock-based pay | 6 | 2 | 13 | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | −2,204 | −953 | −2,645 | — | — | −346 | −57 | −150 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Balance sheet | ||||||||||||||||||
| Cash | 803 | 1,130 | 633 | 990 | 1,258 | 782 | 522 | 187 | 146 | 280 | 83 | 167 | 160 | 78 | 108 | 87 | 71 | 117 |
| Total debt | 0 | 907 | 901 | 1,732 | 1,702 | 1,810 | 1,889 | 1,986 | 2,121 | 2,249 | 2,228 | 2,229 | 2,331 | 2,428 | 2,585 | 2,741 | 2,843 | 2,843 |
| Net debt (negative = net cash) | −803 | −223 | 268 | 742 | 444 | 1,028 | 1,367 | 1,799 | 1,975 | 1,969 | 2,145 | 2,062 | 2,171 | 2,350 | 2,477 | 2,654 | 2,772 | 2,726 |
| Diluted shares | 208m | 203m | 193m | 190m | 190m | 191m | 165m | 133m | 119m | 89m | 81m | 59m | 49m | 50m | 48m | 47m | 49m | 50m |
| Returned to shareholders | ||||||||||||||||||
| Dividends | 10 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0 | 0 | 409 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Buybacks | 16 | 31 | 50 | 0 | 0 | 32 | 304 | 110 | 330 | 44 | 106 | 200 | 1 | 3 | 38 | 4 | 7 | 1 |
| Total returned | 26 | 32 | 50 | 0 | 0 | 32 | 304 | 110 | 330 | 44 | 106 | 200 | 1 | 3 | 447 | 4 | 7 | 1 |
| Quarter | 2024 Q3 Sept 2024 | 2024 Q4 Dec 2024 | 2025 Q1 Mar 2025 | 2025 Q2 Jun 2025 | 2025 Q3 Sept 2025 | 2025 Q4 Dec 2025 | 2026 Q1 Mar 2026 | 2026 Q2 Jun 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | ||||||||
| Revenue | 29 | 37 | 14 | 23 | 15 | 28 | 24 | 27 |
| Net income | −56 | 831 | −62 | −56 | −8 | −51 | −40 | −46 |
| Diluted EPS | −$1.18 | −$1.06 | −$1.28 | −$1.12 | −$0.17 | −$1.01 | −$0.80 | −$0.91 |
| Growth (year on year) | ||||||||
| Revenue | +262.5% | — | +7.7% | — | −48.3% | −24.3% | +71.4% | +17.4% |
| Net income | — | +0.1% | — | — | — | −106.1% | — | — |
| Margins | ||||||||
| Net margin | −193.1% | >999% | −442.9% | −243.5% | −53.3% | −182.1% | −166.7% | −170.4% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | −479.3% | 8.1% | −307.1% | 4.3% | 600.0% | −35.7% | −137.5% | −14.8% |
| Cash flow | ||||||||
| Cash from operations | −139 | 3 | −43 | 1 | 90 | −10 | −33 | −4 |
| Capital spending | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Free cash flow | −139 | 3 | −43 | 1 | 90 | −10 | −33 | −4 |
| Last 12 months unless stated | MBI | KWY | KINS | NODK | PRHI | ITIC | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $94m | $154m | $238m | $267m | $32m | $293m | $1.7bn |
| Revenue growth, last 12 months | −8.7% | 32.8% | 28.0% | −13.9% | −49.0% | 8.7% | 8.0% |
| Revenue growth, 3-year average | −3.3% | 15.6% | 17.6% | −2.5% | −32.6% | 5.0% | 9.5% |
| Revenue growth, latest quarter | 17.4% | 27.6% | 25.9% | −7.7% | −43.3% | 17.5% | 4.2% |
| Operating margin | — | −0.1% | — | — | −52.5% | — | 9.4% |
| Operating margin, 3-year average | — | −0.1% | — | — | −51.1% | — | 1.8% |
| Net margin | −154.3% | −4.9% | 14.8% | 2.9% | −49.6% | 13.8% | 10.5% |
| Cash from operations / revenue | 45.7% | 1.7% | 36.3% | −12.2% | −144.0% | 10.9% | 18.2% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 45.7% | −3.7% | 34.9% | −12.2% | −144.0% | 9.0% | 17.6% |
| Free-cash-flow margin, 3-year average | 69.0% | −4.7% | 28.0% | 4.8% | −79.8% | 8.1% | 16.5% |
| Stock pay / revenue | 0.2% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.6% |
| Change in share count | 3.0% | 5.3% | 4.7% | −1.0% | −0.0% | −0.0% | −0.7% |
| Measure | Company | Peer median | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth Growth | -8.7% | 8.3% | 44 of 48 |
| Change in growth rate Growth | -118.0pp | -0.7pp | 48 of 48 |
| Net margin Profitability | -154.3% | 10.8% | 47 of 48 |
| Change in share count Balance sheet | 3.0% | -0.7% | 40 of 47 |
Rank 1 = best in the group (for spending, debt and dilution, lower ranks first).
| Line of business | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| US Public Finance Insurance | $83M | ▼ 16.2% |
| Corporate Operations | $69M | ▼ 28.1% |
| International and Structured Finance Insurance | -$7M | — |
These categories overlap or exclude eliminations, so shares aren't shown.
From Mbia Inc's 10-K filed February 26, 2026, as tagged in the filing. View filing. Indented rows are part of the line above; their share is of that line. In the bars, the faint bar behind is the year before.
| Manager | Value | Shares | Share of 13F value | Shares QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kahn Brothers Group Inc | $27.5M | 4.2M | 15.2% | ▲ 104.9% |
| Blackrock, Inc. | $23.9M | 3.7M | 13.3% | ▲ 8.3% |
| Wolf Hill Capital Management, LP | $13.8M | 2.1M | 7.6% | ▼ 16.8% |
| Vanguard Capital Management LLC | $13M | 2.0M | 7.2% | ▲ 0.8% |
| Valueworks LLC | $12.8M | 2.0M | 7.1% | ▲ 1.8% |
| Hosking Partners LLP | $10.1M | 1.5M | 5.6% | ▼ 2.2% |
| Geode Capital Management, LLC | $7.4M | 1.1M | 4.1% | ▲ 5.1% |
| State Street Corp | $7.1M | 1.1M | 3.9% | ▲ 2.3% |
| Cerity Partners LLC | $7.1M | 1.1M | 3.9% | ▲ 151.6% |
| TCW Group Inc | $6.9M | 1.1M | 3.8% | ▲ 2.6% |
| Russell Investments Group, Ltd. | $3M | 459K | 1.7% | ▲ 6.8% |
| Northern Trust Corp | $2.9M | 444K | 1.6% | ▲ 9.8% |
From Form 13F filings with the SEC ( quarterly data sets), as reported by each manager for June 30, 2026 and filed up to 45 days later. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M only, so this is not Mbia Inc's complete shareholder register. Values are as reported by the filers .
From insiders' Form 4 filings with the SEC. Excludes awards, option exercises and shares withheld for tax. "Pre-set plan" means the filing marks the trade as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. See every insider trade since five years ago, on a price chart.
Next expected around November 3, 2026 estimated from the company's past filing pattern, not announced
| Data | Last updated | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | Exchange closing prices | |
| Financial statements | SEC 10-K and 10-Q filings | |
| News and updates | Company releases and SEC 8-K filings | |
| Analyst estimates | Aggregated analyst estimates | |
| Valuation and scores | Our models, from the filed figures |
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