Novo Nordisk A S is a US-listed company in the pharmaceuticals industry. Its financial year ends in December.
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Third-party market data · may be delayed
~$97
Cash-flow model
Base case. Range ~$72–$130 across our lower- and higher-growth cases (12.2%–22.2% a year).
Undervalued
The price is below our entire value range; our base value is 140% above it.
Price used: $40.45, November 2, 2026
Novo Nordisk A S valuation: adjust assumptions and compare models →
What company insiders, investment funds and members of Congress have been doing with the stock, from their own filings.
Revenue for the twelve months was $46.8bn, up 11.1% on a year earlier, slower than the 24.9% growth a quarter earlier. Free-cash-flow margin fell to 19.1% from 34.6% a year earlier. Against its peers on growth, profitability, cash generation and balance sheet, it grades B. It passes 3 of our 7 financial-health checks. Our cash-flow model value is $97.08 a share, against a share price of $40.00.
Written from the company's filings and our models when each quarter's report arrives. Figures in older notes are as published at the time. Not investment advice.
Novo Nordisk A S's trailing-twelve-month revenue grew 11.1% year on year, with a free-cash-flow margin of 19.1%. Where it stands out: operating margin of 41.3% ranks 4 of 67 pharmaceuticals companies we cover. Where it lags: change in growth rate of -13.8pp ranks 63 of 74 pharmaceuticals companies we cover.
Our discounted-cash-flow model values the business at ~$97 per share in the base case (~$72–$130 across growth scenarios) — model values under stated assumptions, not a price target.
Current signal Free cash flow diverging from earnings: TTM free cash flow fell 16.6% while net income grew 5.9%: a 22pp divergence.
Assembled from SEC-filed figures — the full workings are on this page and in our methodology. Observations, not recommendations.
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Third-party market data · may be delayed
Company announcements, filed results and changes that matter to shareholders.
No recent updates are available for NVO from the sources we follow. See filings →
The share price implies about 3.4% a year of cash-flow growth for five years.That is slower than the 19.2% a year revenue growth Novo Nordisk A S has delivered.
Read with care: free cash flow has swung sharply in the past year (often a one-off tax, legal or working-capital item), so the cash-flow base behind this reading may be unusually low or high.
Our cash-flow model with every input fixed except growth over the next five years, solved for the growth at which the model value equals the share price ($40.30, Nov 3, 2026). Cash-flow growth then fades to 2.5% a year; discount rate 8.5%. Delivered figures are revenue growth from SEC filings. This is a model exercise, not investment advice or a forecast of the share price. All companies
Our value per share comes from a discounted-cash-flow model of Novo Nordisk A S's free cash flow after stock-based pay ( $12.1B, FY2025 Q4 TTM, with after-tax interest added back): growth for five years as below (the first two years from forecasts, guidance and the company's record), fading to 2.5%, discounted at 8.5%, then cash added and debt and other claims subtracted. These are model values under stated assumptions, not price targets or recommendations.
We value Novo Nordisk A S as an operating company, with every model that fits that kind of business. Cost of equity 8.8%: the 10-year Treasury yield (4.9%) plus a beta of 0.86 times a 4.5% equity risk premium.
| Model | Value per share | In the combined value? |
|---|---|---|
| Cash-flow model (DCF) Free cash flow to the firm (after stock pay, with after-tax interest added back), grown then faded to 2.5%, discounted at 8.5% as the firm rate, less debt and other claims. | ~$97 ~$72–$130 | Primary model, counts double |
| Price-to-earnings vs peers Earnings per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) price-to-earnings. | ~$47 ~$43–$95 | Included |
| Residual income Book value plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, fading over ten years. | — | Does not apply: return on equity above 40%: buybacks or intangibles make book value too small an anchor |
| Justified price-to-book Book value times (return on equity - growth) / (cost of equity - growth): steady-state returns. | ~$43 ~$37–$52 | Included |
| Combined value Weighted average of the models that apply: the primary model (cash-flow model (dcf)) counts double. Models more than 5x or less than 0.2x the share price, or more than 3x away from the other models' median, are left out. | ~$71 ~$43–$97 | 3 models |
Different models fail in different ways, so where several apply we average them rather than trust one. Peer-based models compare Novo Nordisk A S with Pharmaceuticals in our coverage, using third-party market data. Model values are estimates under stated assumptions, updated as new filings arrive; not price targets or investment advice. How each model works.
| Discount rate ↓ / growth → | −5% growth | 0% growth | 5% growth | 10% growth | 15% growth | 20% growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7% | $31 | $45 | $63 | $88 | $120 | $161 |
| 8.5% | $22 | $32 | $45 | $63 | $85 | $115 |
| 10% | $16 | $24 | $34 | $48 | $65 | $87 |
Not assessed: fewer than five years of comparable figures in the filings. AI disruption exposure for this industry: Medium.
Next results: November 4, 2026, before the open.
No analyst estimates are published for Novo Nordisk A S: too few analysts cover it.
| Quarter to | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026 | $4.98 | $6.18 | +24.0% |
| Mar 2026 | $6.96 | $6.63 | −4.8% |
| Dec 2025 | $5.90 | $6.04 | +2.3% |
| Sept 2025 | $4.24 | $4.50 | +6.1% |
Adjusted EPS as companies report it, against the average analyst estimate.
How Novo Nordisk A S’s listed options are priced, and three ways to use them that follow from our valuation. Quotes are delayed, read November 3, 2026. Check the live chain at your broker before trading.
There is not enough price history to measure realised volatility.
Our rule for “rich”: implied at least 1.2× 60-day realised (beyond measurement noise), above 1-year realised (not just a calm spell), and in the top 20% of our coverage that day. Never with results inside the option’s life. These are our conventions, built on research showing option prices usually imply more movement than follows, most when the gap is wide. How we judge this.
Not offered: fundamentals grade B (needs B+ or better).
We suggest selling a put only on well-rated companies, at a strike where the price you would pay if assigned (strike less premium) is at or below our fair value.
Not offered: no liquid call at or above our price target — the model says the upside is worth more than any listed strike.
For holders: sell a call at a strike at or above our fair value, so the shares are only sold at a price the model calls full value.
Not offered: the shares trade below our fair value: a collar caps upside the model expects.
For holders of a stock trading at or above our fair value: buy a put for a floor and sell a call to pay for it.
General research, not personal advice. Options can lose you more than you expect and are not suitable for everyone: put sellers can be made to buy shares that keep falling, call sellers give up gains above the strike, and results or news can move prices sharply. Chances shown are approximations from each option’s delta. Spreads, fees and early assignment are not modelled.
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 1, 2026.
| Period | Revenue (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY19 Q4 | $18.3B |
| FY20 Q4 | $19.4B |
| FY21 Q4 | $22.4B |
| FY22 Q4 | $25.1B |
| FY23 Q4 | $33.7B |
| FY24 Q4 | $42.1B |
| FY25 Q4 | $46.8B |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 1, 2026.
| Period | Revenue growth, TTM YoY |
|---|---|
| FY20 Q4 | 6.2% |
| FY21 Q4 | 15.3% |
| FY22 Q4 | 11.9% |
| FY23 Q4 | 34.6% |
| FY24 Q4 | 24.9% |
| FY25 Q4 | 11.1% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 1, 2026.
| Period | Operating margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY19 Q4 | 43.0% |
| FY20 Q4 | 42.6% |
| FY21 Q4 | 41.7% |
| FY22 Q4 | 42.3% |
| FY23 Q4 | 44.2% |
| FY24 Q4 | 44.2% |
| FY25 Q4 | 41.3% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved November 1, 2026.
| Period | FCF margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY19 Q4 | 31.0% |
| FY20 Q4 | 36.3% |
| FY21 Q4 | 34.6% |
| FY22 Q4 | 37.7% |
| FY23 Q4 | 35.8% |
| FY24 Q4 | 25.4% |
| FY25 Q4 | 19.1% |
Each dollar Novo Nordisk A S took in during FY2025, followed through to profit: what it cost to make, what went on research and running the business, and what was left after tax.
| Revenue | $46.8B | |
|---|---|---|
| Other income | $437M | 0.9% of revenue |
| Cost of revenue | $8.9B | 19.0% of revenue |
| Gross profit | $37.9B | 81.0% of revenue |
| Research and development | $7.9B | 16.8% of revenue |
| Selling, general and admin | $904M | 1.9% of revenue |
| Other operating costs | $9.8B | 20.9% of revenue |
| Operating income | $19.3B | 41.3% of revenue |
| Income tax | $4.3B | 9.1% of revenue |
| Net income | $15.5B | 33.1% of revenue |
| Fiscal year | 2019 Dec 2019 | 2020 Dec 2020 | 2021 Dec 2021 | 2022 Dec 2022 | 2023 Dec 2023 | 2024 Dec 2024 | 2025 Dec 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | |||||||
| Revenue | 18.3 | 19.4 | 22.4 | 25.1 | 33.7 | 42.1 | 46.8 |
| Gross profit | 15.3 | 16.2 | 18.6 | 21.0 | 28.5 | 35.7 | 37.9 |
| EBITDA | — | — | — | 11.5 | 15.9 | 19.9 | 21.6 |
| Operating income | 7.9 | 8.3 | 9.3 | 10.6 | 14.9 | 18.6 | 19.3 |
| Net income | 5.8 | 6.5 | 7.6 | 7.9 | 12.1 | 14.6 | 15.5 |
| Diluted EPS | $1.23 | $1.38 | $1.65 | $1.73 | $2.70 | $3.28 | $3.49 |
| Growth (year on year) | |||||||
| Revenue | — | +6.2% | +15.3% | +11.9% | +34.6% | +24.9% | +11.1% |
| EBITDA | — | — | — | — | +38.5% | +24.5% | +8.6% |
| Operating income | — | +5.3% | +12.6% | +13.5% | +40.6% | +25.0% | +3.9% |
| Net income | — | +10.4% | +17.8% | +3.5% | +54.5% | +20.6% | +5.9% |
| Diluted EPS | — | +12.3% | +19.7% | +4.9% | +56.2% | +21.4% | +6.3% |
| Margins | |||||||
| Gross margin | 83.5% | 83.5% | 83.2% | 83.9% | 84.6% | 84.7% | 81.0% |
| EBITDA margin | — | — | — | 46.0% | 47.3% | 47.1% | 46.0% |
| Operating margin | 43.0% | 42.6% | 41.7% | 42.3% | 44.2% | 44.2% | 41.3% |
| Net margin | 31.9% | 33.2% | 33.9% | 31.4% | 36.0% | 34.8% | 33.1% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 31.0% | 36.3% | 34.6% | 37.7% | 35.8% | 25.4% | 19.1% |
| Cash flow | |||||||
| Cash from operations | 7.0 | 8.0 | 8.7 | 11.2 | 15.8 | 17.5 | 18.0 |
| Capital spending | 1.3 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 3.7 | 6.8 | 9.1 |
| Free cash flow | 5.7 | 7.1 | 7.7 | 9.4 | 12.1 | 10.7 | 8.9 |
| Stock-based pay | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | 5.6 | 6.9 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 11.8 | 10.4 | 8.7 |
| Balance sheet | |||||||
| Cash | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 4.2 |
| Total debt | 0.7 | 2.9 | 7.6 | 6.9 | 8.1 | 23.1 | 41.5 |
| Net debt (negative = net cash) | −1.6 | 0.9 | 6.0 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 20.9 | 37.3 |
| Diluted shares | 4,757m | 4,680m | 4,606m | 4,545m | 4,495m | 4,463m | 4,448m |
| Returned to shareholders | |||||||
| Dividends | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 6.4 | 7.8 |
| Buybacks | 2.3 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 0.2 |
| Total returned | 5.2 | 5.7 | 6.5 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 9.3 | 8.1 |
| Last 12 months unless stated | NVO | BMY | GSK | AZN | PFE | MRK | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $46.8bn | $50.0bn | $43.1bn | $58.7bn | $63.7bn | $66.6bn | $276m |
| Revenue growth, last 12 months | 11.1% | 4.2% | 7.5% | 8.6% | −0.2% | 4.6% | 9.9% |
| Revenue growth, 3-year average | — | 3.6% | — | — | −7.0% | 4.5% | 5.5% |
| Revenue growth, latest quarter | — | 6.9% | — | — | 2.6% | 5.1% | 6.5% |
| Gross margin | 81.0% | 69.2% | 72.4% | 81.9% | 73.2% | 73.0% | 62.0% |
| Operating margin | 41.3% | — | 24.3% | 23.4% | — | — | −5.9% |
| Operating margin, 3-year average | — | — | 18.5% | 14.2% | — | — | −7.4% |
| Net margin | 33.1% | 18.5% | 17.5% | 17.4% | 6.8% | 4.8% | −7.3% |
| Cash from operations / revenue | 38.5% | 21.3% | 23.7% | 24.8% | 21.0% | 30.0% | 10.2% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 19.1% | 18.6% | 19.6% | 20.0% | 17.2% | 24.1% | 8.6% |
| Free-cash-flow margin, 3-year average | — | 26.5% | 21.9% | 14.4% | 15.1% | 22.8% | 7.4% |
| Stock pay / revenue | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 3.6% |
| Change in share count | −0.3% | 0.6% | −0.6% | −0.1% | 0.2% | −1.9% | 1.9% |
| Measure | Company | Peer median | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth Growth | 11.1% | 10.0% | 34 of 74 |
| Change in growth rate Growth | -13.8pp | -0.3pp | 63 of 74 |
| Gross margin Profitability | 81.0% | 59.8% | 10 of 59 |
| Operating margin Profitability | 41.3% | -5.9% | 4 of 67 |
| Net margin Profitability | 33.1% | -7.3% | 5 of 75 |
| Free-cash-flow margin Cash generation | 19.1% | 10.1% | 23 of 74 |
| Stock pay as % of revenue Cash generation | 0.5% | 3.6% | 5 of 69 |
| Long-term debt as % of assets Balance sheet | 42.4% | 23.8% | 39 of 53 |
| Change in share count Balance sheet | -0.3% | 1.5% | 18 of 62 |
Rank 1 = best in the group (for spending, debt and dilution, lower ranks first).
| Manager | Value | Shares | Share of 13F value | Shares QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dodge & Cox | $978M | 20.4M | 6.3% | ▲ 5.5% |
| Loomis Sayles & Co L P | $891M | 18.6M | 5.7% | ▲ 9.3% |
| Franklin Resources Inc | $625M | 13.0M | 4.0% | ▼ 18.9% |
| Price T Rowe Associates Inc | $561M | 11.7M | 3.6% | ▲ 5.8% |
| Morgan Stanley | $559M | 11.7M | 3.6% | ▲ 7.3% |
| Bank Of America Corp | $536M | 11.2M | 3.4% | ▲ 3.8% |
| Capital International Investors | $468M | 9.7M | 3.0% | ▼ 17.6% |
| Folketrygdfondet | $457M | 9.5M | 2.9% | ▲ 4.9% |
| Goldman Sachs Group Inc | $440M | 9.2M | 2.8% | ▲ 79.3% |
| Fisher Asset Management, LLC | $399M | 8.3M | 2.6% | ▼ 7.7% |
| Arrowstreet Capital, Limited Partnership | $397M | 8.3M | 2.5% | ▲ 5.7% |
| Everett Harris & Co | $310M | 6.5M | 2.0% | ▲ 0.8% |
From Form 13F filings with the SEC ( quarterly data sets), as reported by each manager for June 30, 2026 and filed up to 45 days later. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M only, so this is not Novo Nordisk A S's complete shareholder register. Values are as reported by the filers ; 5 inconsistently scaled filing rows were excluded.
From insiders' Form 4 filings with the SEC. Excludes awards, option exercises and shares withheld for tax. "Pre-set plan" means the filing marks the trade as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. See every insider trade since five years ago, on a price chart.
In the last 12 months, 2 members of Congress disclosed 1 purchase and 2 sales of Novo Nordisk A S shares.
| Data | Last updated | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | Exchange closing prices | |
| News and updates | Company releases and SEC 8-K filings | |
| Analyst estimates | Aggregated analyst estimates | |
| Valuation and scores | Our models, from the filed figures |
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