Sera Prognostics, Inc. is a US-listed company in the life sciences tools & services industry. Its financial year ends in December.
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Sera Prognostics, Inc. valuation: adjust assumptions and compare models →
What company insiders, investment funds and members of Congress have been doing with the stock, from their own filings.
Sera Prognostics has little or no product revenue yet; it used $28m of cash in the twelve months to June 2026. The diluted share count is up 26.4% on a year earlier, which dilutes existing holders. It passes 2 of our 3 financial-health checks.
Our model value for Sera Prognostics is under review, so past values are not shown until it is resolved.
Source: 10-Q filed August 12, 2026 on SEC EDGAR · Financials · Valuation
Written from the company's filings and our models when each quarter's report arrives. Figures in older notes are as published at the time. Not investment advice.
Sera Prognostics, Inc.'s trailing-twelve-month revenue fell 35.2% year on year, with a free-cash-flow margin of -40211.4%.
Current signal Capital expenditure surging: TTM capex grew 47% year over year and now absorbs 665.7% of revenue.
Assembled from SEC-filed figures — the full workings are on this page and in our methodology. Observations, not recommendations.
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Third-party market data · may be delayed
Company announcements, filed results and changes that matter to shareholders.
The inputs used by the models below have passed source checks. Individual model values are available below and in the interactive valuator. Their differences are shown explicitly; the platform combined value and recommendation remain withheld.
We value Sera Prognostics, Inc. as an operating company, with every model that fits that kind of business. Cost of equity 8.8%: the 10-year Treasury yield (4.9%) plus a beta of 0.86 times a 4.5% equity risk premium.
| Model | Value per share | In the combined value? |
|---|---|---|
| Growth cash-flow model Revenue for this year and next from analysts' consensus, then growth fading to 2.5%; the operating margin moving to profitable peers'; investment needed per dollar of growth from peers; reduced by a failure probability. For young or fast-growing companies. The starting margin is normalized to between -100% and 60%; net margin is a proxy when operating income is not tagged. Uses analysts' consensus estimates (third-party data), not our forecasts. | — | Does not apply: This model is withheld pending its input or assumption review. |
| Price-to-earnings vs peers Earnings per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) price-to-earnings. | — | Does not apply: This model is withheld pending its input or assumption review. |
| Residual income Book value plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, fading over ten years. | — | Does not apply: This model is withheld pending its input or assumption review. |
| Justified price-to-book Book value times (return on equity - growth) / (cost of equity - growth): steady-state returns. | — | Does not apply: This model is withheld pending its input or assumption review. |
| Forward price-to-sales vs peers Next year's consensus sales per share times peers' typical forward price-to-sales; only when earnings are negative. Uses analysts' consensus estimates (third-party data), not our forecasts. | ~$0.1 ~$0.1–$0.3 | Left out: out of range vs price (0.06x) |
| Revenue-to-maturity model Revenue grown to maturity with the cash margin moving to the industry's; for companies not yet profitable. | — | Does not apply: This model is withheld pending its input or assumption review. |
| Combined value Individual source-checked model scenarios are available. The platform combined value and recommendation remain withheld. | — | Combined value withheld. Review the individual models and their assumptions. |
Different models fail in different ways, so where several apply we average them rather than trust one. Peer-based models compare Sera Prognostics, Inc. with Life Sciences Tools & Services in our coverage, using third-party market data. Model values are estimates under stated assumptions, updated as new filings arrive; not price targets or investment advice. How each model works.
| At fiscal year end | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share price | $6.87 | $1.26 | $5.98 | $8.14 | $2.95 | $1.99 |
| Market value | $206m | $39m | $187m | $270m | $141m | $100m |
| + Net debt (− = net cash) | −$59m | −$30m | −$4m | −$4m | −$4m | −$4m |
| Enterprise value | $147m | $9m | $183m | $266m | $137m | $95m |
| Multiples | ||||||
| Price / sales | n/m | 145.5x | n/m | n/m | n/m | n/m |
| Price / earnings | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Price / free cash flow | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| EV / EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Weak moat
How hard Sera Prognostics's competitive advantage looks for rivals to wear away, judged from 6 years of its own filings: returns on capital, pricing power, profit durability, cash conversion and discipline.
Net income has been a median -37.0% of total assets over 6 years.
Operating margin has been a median -33596.1%; its worst year was -53282.9%.
Free cash flow was positive in 0 of 6 years, at a median -23965.0% of revenue.
AI disruption exposure: Medium. In this industry, AI could change how the product is made or sold, without replacing the core asset. The score above includes a 5-point deduction for that exposure (17 before it).
Next results: November 4, 2026, after the close. Analysts expect revenue of $75000 and EPS of −$0.14 (range −$0.18 to −$0.10) for the quarter.
| Fiscal year | EPS | Growth | Revenue | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | −$0.66 | +2% | $225000 | +178% |
| Next | −$0.54 | +19% | $2m | +756% |
The consensus EPS forecast for the current fiscal year is −4.7% on 90 days ago. In the last 30 days, 1 analyst raised Sera Prognostics, Inc.'s forecast and 0 cut it.
Average of analysts' published estimates (third-party data).
| Period | Current fiscal year | Next fiscal year |
|---|---|---|
| 90 days ago | −$0.69 | −$0.57 |
| 60 days ago | −$0.68 | −$0.58 |
| 30 days ago | −$0.68 | −$0.58 |
| 7 days ago | −$0.72 | −$0.52 |
| Now | −$0.66 | −$0.54 |
| Quarter to | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026 | −$0.16 | −$0.18 | −12.5% |
| Mar 2026 | −$0.17 | −$0.17 | +1.9% |
| Dec 2025 | −$0.19 | −$0.16 | +15.8% |
| Sept 2025 | −$0.21 | −$0.16 | +23.8% |
Adjusted EPS as companies report it, against the average analyst estimate.
Last 12 months −39.3%
| Part | Then | Now | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (last 12 months) | $108000 | $70000 | −35.2% |
| P/S multiple | n/m | n/m | +18.3% |
| Share count | 40m | 50m | −20.9% |
Biggest factor: revenue. Loss-making at one end, so the split uses price/sales.
| Calendar year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 to date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return | |||||
| SERA | −82% | +375% | +36% | −64% | −33% |
| Industry peers (median) | −51% | −3% | −15% | −2% | +16% |
| S&P 500 | −18% | +26% | +25% | +18% | +11% |
| Months that ended higher | |||||
| SERA | 17% | 58% | 58% | 42% | 27% |
| S&P 500 | 42% | 67% | 75% | 75% | 46% |
| Largest fall from a high during the year | |||||
| SERA | −87% | −64% | −55% | −82% | −57% |
| S&P 500 | −25% | −10% | −8% | −19% | −9% |
Worst fall since July 15, 2021: 91% from August 9, 2021 to December 28, 2022. Getting back needed a 1024% gain, and the shares have not yet recovered.
| Results released | Next day | S&P 500 next day | 5 days | 21 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 12, 2026 | +1.0% | +0.9% | 0.0% | +2.0% |
| May 6, 2026 | +2.1% | +1.1% | −15.4% | +21.8% |
| March 18, 2026 | −10.9% | −1.6% | −1.0% | +14.4% |
| November 13, 2025 | −5.1% | −1.7% | +0.3% | +8.3% |
| August 6, 2025 | +6.1% | +0.7% | −6.1% | +36.3% |
| May 7, 2025 | −15.9% | +1.1% | −10.7% | −38.5% |
| March 19, 2025 | −3.7% | +0.8% | −3.7% | −16.7% |
| January 31, 2025 | −20.8% | −1.2% | −31.7% | −37.4% |
| November 6, 2024 | −0.3% | +3.3% | −8.9% | −3.9% |
| August 7, 2024 | 0.0% | +1.6% | −7.4% | −2.2% |
| May 8, 2024 | +3.3% | +0.6% | −11.1% | −13.6% |
| March 20, 2024 | +3.4% | +1.3% | +4.5% | +7.7% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 29, 2026.
| Period | Revenue (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY23 Q3 | $330K |
| FY23 Q4 | $306K |
| FY24 Q1 | $206K |
| FY24 Q2 | $107K |
| FY24 Q3 | $94K |
| FY24 Q4 | $77K |
| FY25 Q1 | $115K |
| FY25 Q2 | $108K |
| FY25 Q3 | $95K |
| FY25 Q4 | $81K |
| FY26 Q1 | $57K |
| FY26 Q2 | $70K |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 29, 2026.
| Period | Revenue growth, TTM YoY |
|---|---|
| FY23 Q3 | 44.1% |
| FY23 Q4 | 14.2% |
| FY24 Q1 | -37.6% |
| FY24 Q2 | -71.5% |
| FY24 Q3 | -71.5% |
| FY24 Q4 | -74.8% |
| FY25 Q1 | -44.2% |
| FY25 Q2 | 0.9% |
| FY25 Q3 | 1.1% |
| FY25 Q4 | 5.2% |
| FY26 Q1 | -50.4% |
| FY26 Q2 | -35.2% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 29, 2026.
| Period | Operating margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY23 Q3 | -12542.7% |
| FY23 Q4 | -13013.4% |
| FY24 Q1 | -18247.1% |
| FY24 Q2 | -33067.3% |
| FY24 Q3 | -38361.7% |
| FY24 Q4 | -47577.9% |
| FY25 Q1 | -31989.6% |
| FY25 Q2 | -34125.0% |
| FY25 Q3 | -38918.9% |
| FY25 Q4 | -45066.7% |
| FY26 Q1 | -64235.1% |
| FY26 Q2 | -53282.9% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 29, 2026.
| Period | FCF margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY23 Q3 | -8474.5% |
| FY23 Q4 | -8926.8% |
| FY24 Q1 | -8454.9% |
| FY24 Q2 | -14352.3% |
| FY24 Q3 | -15700.0% |
| FY24 Q4 | -18500.0% |
| FY25 Q1 | -23287.0% |
| FY25 Q2 | -24628.7% |
| FY25 Q3 | -27544.2% |
| FY25 Q4 | -32529.6% |
| FY26 Q1 | -48377.2% |
| FY26 Q2 | -40211.4% |
| Fiscal year | 2020 Dec 2020 | 2021 Dec 2021 | 2022 Dec 2022 | 2023 Dec 2023 | 2024 Dec 2024 | 2025 Dec 2025 | LTM Jun 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | |||||||
| Revenue | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gross profit | — | — | — | 0 | −0 | −0 | −0 |
| EBITDA | −17 | −35 | −45 | −39 | −36 | −36 | −36 |
| Operating income | −18 | −35 | −46 | −40 | −37 | −37 | −37 |
| Net income | −20 | −35 | −44 | −36 | −33 | −32 | −33 |
| Diluted EPS | −$0.64 | −$1.17 | −$1.43 | −$1.16 | −$0.99 | −$0.67 | −$0.66 |
| Growth (year on year) | |||||||
| Revenue | — | +228.0% | +226.8% | +14.2% | −74.8% | +5.2% | −35.2% |
| Margins | |||||||
| Gross margin | — | — | — | 31.4% | −6.5% | −102.5% | −150.0% |
| EBITDA margin | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% |
| Operating margin | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% |
| Net margin | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% |
| Cash flow | |||||||
| Cash from operations | −17 | −32 | −35 | −27 | −14 | −26 | −28 |
| Capital spending | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Free cash flow | −17 | −33 | −35 | −27 | −14 | −26 | −28 |
| Stock-based pay | 1 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 4 |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | −18 | −36 | −40 | −33 | −21 | −31 | −32 |
| Balance sheet | |||||||
| Cash | 14 | 59 | 30 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Total debt | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Net debt (negative = net cash) | −9 | −59 | −30 | −4 | −4 | −4 | −4 |
| Diluted shares | 31m | 30m | 31m | 31m | 33m | 48m | 50m |
| Quarter | 2024 Q3 Sept 2024 | 2024 Q4 Dec 2024 | 2025 Q1 Mar 2025 | 2025 Q2 Jun 2025 | 2025 Q3 Sept 2025 | 2025 Q4 Dec 2025 | 2026 Q1 Mar 2026 | 2026 Q2 Jun 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | ||||||||
| Revenue | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gross profit | 0 | −0 | −0 | −0 | −0 | −0 | −0 | −0 |
| EBITDA | −9 | −9 | −9 | −9 | −9 | −9 | −9 | −10 |
| Operating income | −9 | −9 | −9 | −9 | −9 | −9 | −9 | −10 |
| Net income | −8 | −9 | −8 | −8 | −8 | −8 | −8 | −9 |
| Diluted EPS | −$0.24 | −$0.25 | −$0.20 | −$0.16 | −$0.16 | −$0.16 | −$0.17 | −$0.18 |
| Growth (year on year) | ||||||||
| Revenue | −31.0% | −41.5% | — | −29.2% | −44.8% | −58.3% | −63.2% | +76.5% |
| Margins | ||||||||
| Gross margin | 55.2% | −33.3% | −5.3% | −141.2% | −156.3% | −320.0% | −200.0% | −66.7% |
| EBITDA margin | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% |
| Operating margin | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% |
| Net margin | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% |
| Cash flow | ||||||||
| Cash from operations | −7 | −6 | −8 | −5 | −6 | −6 | −9 | −6 |
| Capital spending | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Free cash flow | −7 | −6 | −8 | −6 | −7 | −6 | −9 | −6 |
| Stock-based pay | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | −9 | −8 | −9 | −7 | −8 | −7 | −10 | −7 |
| Last 12 months unless stated | SERA | ACON | ISPC | YDES | QSI | BGLC | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $70000 | $83769 | $466302 | $596817 | $2m | $3m | $209m |
| Revenue growth, last 12 months | −35.2% | 33.1% | −92.1% | 16.9% | −53.0% | −67.3% | 6.8% |
| Revenue growth, 3-year average | −42.8% | 0.2% | −64.1% | — | 51.8% | −32.9% | 2.9% |
| Revenue growth, latest quarter | 76.5% | 30.5% | −78.7% | — | −41.8% | −96.6% | 8.5% |
| Gross margin | −150.0% | 21.8% | −98.0% | 28.1% | 35.0% | 12.3% | 50.9% |
| Operating margin | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | −883.3% | <−999% | −81.8% | −16.5% |
| Operating margin, 3-year average | <−999% | <−999% | −768.0% | — | <−999% | −45.3% | −23.3% |
| Net margin | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | −82.4% | −20.0% |
| Cash from operations / revenue | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | −27.1% | 0.7% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | <−999% | −27.3% | −3.1% |
| Free-cash-flow margin, 3-year average | <−999% | <−999% | −549.8% | — | <−999% | −29.5% | −0.4% |
| Stock pay / revenue | >999% | 152.7% | 1.0% | 75.1% | 693.5% | — | 4.8% |
| Change in share count | 26.4% | — | — | 3.1% | 31.2% | — | 1.0% |
| Manager | Value | Shares | Share of 13F value | Shares QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Bros. Advisors LP | $10M | 5.5M | 32.2% | 0.0% |
| Whetstone Capital Advisors, LLC | $6M | 3.3M | 19.4% | 0.0% |
| Aberdeen Group PLC | $5M | 2.8M | 16.1% | ▲ 7.9% |
| Vivo Capital, LLC | $3M | 1.7M | 9.7% | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management LLC | $2.4M | 1.3M | 7.6% | ▲ 7.8% |
| Captrust Financial Advisors | $975,074 | 536K | 3.1% | ▼ 0.2% |
| Geode Capital Management, LLC | $635,473 | 349K | 2.0% | ▼ 4.0% |
| Blackrock, Inc. | $402,891 | 221K | 1.3% | ▲ 12.9% |
| Awm Investment Company, Inc. | $377,435 | 207K | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Fiduciary Trust Co | $311,053 | 171K | 1.0% | ▲ 0.7% |
| State Street Corp | $227,121 | 125K | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Millennium Management LLC | $134,655 | 74K | 0.4% | ▼ 19.1% |
From Form 13F filings with the SEC ( quarterly data sets), as reported by each manager for June 30, 2026 and filed up to 45 days later. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M only, so this is not Sera Prognostics, Inc.'s complete shareholder register. Values are as reported by the filers .
| Insider | Date | Trade | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inglis Tiffany Eul Davis Chief Medical Officer | October 12, 2026 | Sell | 8,024 | $2.03 | $16,289 |
| Inglis Tiffany Eul Davis Chief Medical Officer | September 10, 2026 | Sell | 486 | $2.00 | $972 |
| Jackson Benjamin General Counsel | September 10, 2026 | Sell | 2,190 | $2.00 | $4,380 |
| Lindgardt Zhenya Chief Executive Officer | September 10, 2026 | Sell | 7,022 | $2.00 | $14,044 |
| Anderson Dyaarl Lee Jr. Chief Commercial Officer | September 10, 2026 | Sell | 1,800 | $2.00 | $3,600 |
| Lindgardt Zhenya Chief Executive Officer | September 8, 2026 | Sell | 20,139 | $2.00 | $40,278 |
| Jackson Benjamin General Counsel | June 11, 2026 | Sell | 2,179 | $2.01 | $4,380 |
| Inglis Tiffany Eul Davis Chief Medical Officer | June 11, 2026 | Sell | 362 | $2.01 | $728 |
| Lindgardt Zhenya Chief Executive Officer | June 11, 2026 | Sell | 6,990 | $2.01 | $14,050 |
| Aerts Austin Chief Financial Officer | June 11, 2026 | Sell | 2,037 | $2.01 | $4,094 |
| Anderson Dyaarl Lee Jr. Chief Commercial Officer | June 11, 2026 | Sell | 4,739 | $2.01 | $9,525 |
| Aerts Austin Chief Financial Officer | June 9, 2026 | Sell | 5,440 | $2.08 | $11,315 |
From insiders' Form 4 filings with the SEC. Excludes awards, option exercises and shares withheld for tax. "Pre-set plan" means the filing marks the trade as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. See every insider trade since five years ago, on a price chart.
Next expected around November 12, 2026 estimated from the company's past filing pattern, not announced
| Data | Last updated | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | Exchange closing prices | |
| Financial statements | SEC 10-K and 10-Q filings | |
| News and updates | Company releases and SEC 8-K filings | |
| Analyst estimates | Aggregated analyst estimates | |
| Valuation and scores | Our models, from the filed figures |
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