SM Energy Co valuation and forecast
Explore the models for SM Energy Co, adjust their assumptions and compare your own valuation with the platform's.
Your valuation workspace
What is SM worth to you?
Start with the company's financial data. Make the assumptions your own.
01 / Assumptions
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The cash flows behind your value
View annual figures
| Forecast year | Cash flow / share |
|---|
Negative cash flows are shown in terracotta. Before the terminal value and equity bridge. Residual-income models show excess earnings; dividend models show dividends.
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Compare and combine your models
Weights start with the platform's included models. Change them to build your own combination. Select a model name to edit its assumptions.
| Model | Your value / share | Weight |
|---|
The platform's price and consistency filters are not reapplied to your scenarios.
Other model types 15 unavailable for SM
Proved-reserve net asset value
no standardised measure of proved reserves in the company's tagged filings
Revenue-to-maturity DCF
This model does not apply to this company with the available financial data.
Growth DCF
This model does not apply to this company with the available financial data.
P/B vs return on equity
This model does not apply to this company with the available financial data.
Peer price-to-book
This model does not apply to this company with the available financial data.
Peer P/E
This model does not apply to this company with the available financial data.
Peer price-to-FFO
This model does not apply to this company with the available financial data.
Peer price-to-sales
This model does not apply to this company with the available financial data.
Forward peer price-to-sales
This model does not apply to this company with the available financial data.
Two-stage dividend discount
This model does not apply to this company with the available financial data.
Growing-dividend model
This model does not apply to this company with the available financial data.
REIT funds from operations
This model does not apply to this company with the available financial data.
Utility earnings
This model does not apply to this company with the available financial data.
Book value / net assets
This model does not apply to this company with the available financial data.
Reported crypto treasury NAV
This model does not apply to this company with the available financial data.
Model values are estimates under the assumptions shown. They are not share-price forecasts or investment advice.
Valuation models compared
Different models answer different questions: the cash-flow models ask what the business generates for owners; the peer multiples ask what similar companies in our coverage trade on. Where they disagree, the gap is the story. Projections are estimates based on current data, updated daily. Not investment advice. How each model works.
Analyst recommendations
Monthly trend
- Oct 202618
- Sep 202617
- Aug 202615
- Jul 202615
Counts of recommendations published by analysts covering SM Energy Co, by month. Source: Aggregated broker recommendations (third-party data). Aggregated counts only: we do not reproduce any firm's recommendation or price target, and these are not Fundamentalytics ratings.
Price history
Loading chart…
Third-party market data · may be delayed
How our value has changed
View the data
| Period | Our value per share |
|---|---|
| FY2024 Q2 (backtest) | $7.94 |
| FY2024 Q3 (backtest) | $37.08 |
| FY2024 Q4 (backtest) | $5.25 |
| FY2025 Q1 (backtest) | $49.28 |
| FY2025 Q2 (backtest) | $94.79 |
| FY2025 Q3 (backtest) | $154 |
| FY2025 Q4 (backtest) | $187 |
| FY2026 Q1 (backtest) | $186 |
| FY2026 Q2 (backtest) | $298 |
Our model re-run on each past quarter's filed figures: how the method would have valued SM Energy Co at the time (a backtest — our dated public record starts at launch). The grey line is the share price at month end, for comparison.
The assumptions
- Free cash flow (TTM, FY2026 Q2)
- $2.7B
- Less stock-based pay
- $52M
- Cash flow we value
- $2.3B
- Growth, years 1–5 (base)
- %
- Then fading to
- 2.5%
- Discount rate
- 8.5%
- Net cash added
- $620M
- Diluted shares
- 237M
What would move the value
- Growth 5 points lower
- −24%
- Growth 5 points higher
- +30%
- Free-cash-flow margin 1 point lower
- −2%
- Discount rate 1 point higher
- −16%
Change in our model value when one input moves, all else equal.
SM valuation questions
- How does Fundamentalytics value SM Energy Co?
- We use the models that fit SM Energy Co's business and available financial data: forward price-to-earnings vs peers, justified price-to-book. Each model has its own assumptions and data requirements. The calculator explains which models are available and lets you adjust their inputs.
Data: SEC EDGAR filings, retrieved October 26, 2026. Method: how we value companies. Disclosures: research and recommendations disclosure. Back to SM Energy Co.