TFS Financial Corp: what the price is pricing in

The price implies earnings growth of 19.6% a year; our model expects 7.0%. That gap is wide enough for a short position this quarter. Switch lens below to see the same question asked of earnings, growth, sales and book value.

No published rating for TFS Financial Corp: valuation models disagree too widely to rate: held for review. The readings below run our models backwards for research and show how trading the gap would have done; they are not a valuation or a rating. The valuation page shows the models and their status.

What growth in earnings is the price paying for?

The price implies earnings growth of 19.6% a year; our model expects 7.0%.

Market more optimistic than our model: short this quarter

What the price implies What our model expects

Quarters with a position580 long, 58 short, since December 31, 2011

Beat the S&P 50030 of 5851.7% of quarters held

Strategy against the index+52.5%cumulative; worst fall -32.6%

$10,000 became$103,864S&P 500 bought and held: $78,415

Over time

The earnings growth the price-to-earnings ratio requires, against the growth our model assumes. Net income is already after interest, so it is valued at the return shareholders require, plus spare cash (none for banks and insurers, whose cash is funded by deposits and policies), with no debt subtracted.

Growth our model assumes Growth the P/E implies Long quarter Short quarter. Lower panel: the share price at each quarter end, adjusted for later share splits and spin-offs (the table below gives the price as traded).

$10,000 trading the gap vs the S&P 500

StrategyS&P 500, buy and hold Hypothetical, before costs. The strategy holds the S&P 500 and only changes on a signal: it switches into TFSL in long quarters and adds a short of TFSL in short quarters. The gap between the lines is what the signal added or lost.

Skill or luck?

In plain English: Across 58 quarters with a position, this lens beat the S&P 500 in 30, by +1.2% a quarter on average. That could easily be chance. One company is a small sample: the results across all companies are the better guide.

Positions	Quarters	Beat the S&P 500	Average vs S&P 500, a quarter	Typical (median), a quarter	A year	Confidence (t)	Evidence
Longs	0	—	—	—	—	—	—
Shorts	58	51.7%	+1.2%	+0.3%	+3.0%	0.94	No reliable evidence
All positions	58	51.7%	+1.2%	+0.3%	+3.0%	0.94	No reliable evidence

Each position is measured against the S&P 500 over the same quarter: a long earns the stock's return minus the index's, a short the index's minus the stock's. "A year" compounds the per-quarter results. Evidence: strong at a t-statistic of 2 or more, some from 1.5; "worse" when the result is that far below zero; one company's history is a small sample, so read these alongside the results across all companies.

Every quarter (60)

From	Price paid	Growth the P/E implies	Growth our model assumes	Position	TFSL	S&P 500
September 30, 2026 (open)	$16.20	19.6%	7.0%	Short	+1.9%	−0.8%
June 30, 2026	$17.72	23.1%	6.5%	Short	−6.9%	+2.4%
March 31, 2026	$14.05	19.2%	5.9%	Short	+28.3%	+15.1%
December 31, 2025	$13.38	18.2%	4.7%	Short	+7.2%	−4.4%
September 30, 2025	$13.18	19.6%	3.2%	Short	+3.5%	+2.7%
June 30, 2025	$12.95	19.6%	2.6%	Short	+4.0%	+8.1%
March 31, 2025	$12.39	18.9%	2.2%	Short	+6.8%	+10.8%
December 31, 2024	$12.56	19.5%	2.0%	Short	+0.9%	−4.3%
September 30, 2024	$12.86	19.6%	2.0%	Short	−0.3%	+2.5%
June 30, 2024	$12.62	19.8%	2.0%	Short	+4.2%	+5.8%
March 31, 2024	$12.56	20.9%	2.0%	Short	+2.8%	+4.4%
December 31, 2023	$14.69	23.4%	2.9%	Short	−12.6%	+10.4%
September 30, 2023	$11.82	17.9%	6.4%	Short	+26.9%	+11.6%
June 30, 2023	$12.57	19.2%	9.6%	No position	−4.0%	−3.2%
March 31, 2023	$12.63	19.3%	6.9%	Short	+2.0%	+8.7%
December 31, 2022	$14.41	23.2%	2.0%	Short	−10.6%	+7.5%
September 30, 2022	$13.00	23.6%	2.0%	Short	+13.1%	+7.6%
June 30, 2022	$13.73	24.9%	4.0%	Short	−3.4%	−4.9%
March 31, 2022	$16.60	26.6%	2.0%	Short	−15.7%	−16.1%
December 31, 2021	$17.87	25.8%	2.0%	Short	−5.5%	−4.6%
September 30, 2021	$19.06	27.8%	2.0%	Short	−4.8%	+11.1%
June 30, 2021	$20.30	26.5%	2.0%	Short	−4.8%	+0.6%
March 31, 2021	$20.37	27.8%	2.0%	Short	+0.9%	+8.4%
December 31, 2020	$17.63	24.9%	2.0%	Short	+17.1%	+6.3%
September 30, 2020	$14.69	19.7%	2.0%	Short	+21.9%	+12.1%
June 30, 2020	$14.31	21.1%	2.0%	Short	+4.5%	+9.0%
March 31, 2020	$15.27	21.7%	2.0%	Short	−4.7%	+20.2%
December 31, 2019	$19.68	27.7%	2.0%	Short	−21.4%	−19.4%
September 30, 2019	$18.02	26.0%	2.0%	Short	+10.7%	+9.0%
June 30, 2019	$18.07	25.4%	2.0%	Short	+1.3%	+1.8%
March 31, 2019	$16.47	22.9%	2.0%	Short	+11.3%	+4.2%
December 31, 2018	$16.13	22.7%	2.0%	Short	+3.6%	+13.5%
September 30, 2018	$15.01	21.0%	2.0%	Short	+9.2%	−13.5%
June 30, 2018	$15.77	21.6%	2.0%	Short	−3.3%	+7.7%
March 31, 2018	$14.69	20.2%	2.0%	Short	+8.5%	+3.5%
December 31, 2017	$14.94	20.6%	2.0%	Short	−0.5%	−1.0%
September 30, 2017	$16.13	22.1%	2.0%	Short	−6.3%	+6.8%
June 30, 2017	$15.47	21.9%	2.0%	Short	+5.5%	+4.4%
March 31, 2017	$16.62	24.2%	2.0%	Short	−6.2%	+3.1%
December 31, 2016	$19.04	27.3%	2.0%	Short	−12.1%	+5.9%
September 30, 2016	$17.81	26.0%	2.0%	Short	+7.6%	+4.0%
June 30, 2016	$17.22	26.3%	2.0%	Short	+4.1%	+3.8%
March 31, 2016	$17.37	27.5%	2.0%	Short	−0.3%	+2.5%
December 31, 2015	$18.83	29.6%	2.0%	Short	−7.2%	+1.3%
September 30, 2015	$17.25	30.0%	2.0%	Short	+9.7%	+7.0%
June 30, 2015	$16.82	29.6%	2.0%	Short	+3.2%	−6.4%
March 31, 2015	$14.68	26.9%	2.0%	Short	+15.1%	+0.2%
December 31, 2014	$14.89	27.5%	2.0%	Short	−0.9%	+0.9%
September 30, 2014	$14.32	26.9%	2.0%	Short	+4.5%	+4.9%
June 30, 2014	$14.26	27.3%	2.0%	Short	+0.9%	+1.1%
March 31, 2014	$12.43	25.8%	2.0%	Short	+14.7%	+5.2%
December 31, 2013	$12.12	27.0%	3.9%	Short	+2.6%	+1.7%
September 30, 2013	$11.97	32.7%	3.6%	Short	+1.3%	+10.5%
June 30, 2013	$11.20	40.7%	2.0%	Short	+6.9%	+5.2%
March 31, 2013	$10.84	52.8%	4.0%	Short	+3.3%	+2.9%
December 31, 2012	$9.62	54.8%	2.9%	Short	+12.7%	+10.5%
September 30, 2012	$9.07	42.9%	6.0%	Short	+6.1%	−0.4%
June 30, 2012	$9.55	39.0%	9.5%	Short	−5.0%	+6.3%
March 31, 2012	$9.50	37.9%	8.3%	Short	+0.5%	−2.8%
December 31, 2011	$8.96	57.8%	6.0%	Short	+6.0%	+12.7%

Price paid: the closing price that day as traded, before any later share split.

Is the price-to-earnings ratio cheap or dear for the growth delivered?

TFS Financial Corp trades on 44.5 times earnings while its earnings per share grew 7.8% a year: a PEG of 5.73.

Market more optimistic than our model: short this quarter

PEG: under 0.75 cheap for the growth, over 3 expensive

Quarters with a position231 long, 22 short, since December 31, 2013

Beat the S&P 50012 of 2352.2% of quarters held

Strategy against the index+23.2%cumulative; worst fall -24.1%

$10,000 became$30,525S&P 500 bought and held: $27,091

Over time

The P/E divided by the earnings-per-share growth delivered over three years. Under 0.75 the market pays little for the growth (long); over 3 it pays a lot (short).

EPS growth, 3 years (%) Price-to-earnings ratio (x) Long quarter Short quarter. Lower panel: the share price at each quarter end, adjusted for later share splits and spin-offs (the table below gives the price as traded).

$10,000 trading the gap vs the S&P 500

Skill or luck?

In plain English: Across 23 quarters with a position, this lens beat the S&P 500 in 12, by +1.5% a quarter on average. That could easily be chance. One company is a small sample: the results across all companies are the better guide.

Positions	Quarters	Beat the S&P 500	Average vs S&P 500, a quarter	Typical (median), a quarter	A year	Confidence (t)	Evidence
Longs	1	0.0%	−1.8%	−1.8%	−7.0%	—	Too few quarters
Shorts	22	54.5%	+1.6%	+1.2%	+4.2%	0.69	No reliable evidence
All positions	23	52.2%	+1.5%	+0.5%	+3.7%	0.66	No reliable evidence

Every quarter (32)

From	Price paid	Price-to-earnings ratio (x)	EPS growth, 3 years (%)	Position	TFSL	S&P 500
September 30, 2026 (open)	$16.20	44.5x	7.8%	Short	+1.9%	−0.8%
June 30, 2026	$17.72	53.3x	4.7%	Short	−6.9%	+2.4%
March 31, 2026	$14.05	43.3x	3.9%	Short	+28.3%	+15.1%
December 31, 2025	$13.38	41.2x	6.7%	Short	+7.2%	−4.4%
September 30, 2025	$13.18	44.4x	7.8%	Short	+3.5%	+2.7%
June 30, 2025	$12.95	44.4x	7.8%	Short	+4.0%	+8.1%
March 31, 2025	$12.39	42.6x	4.0%	Short	+6.8%	+10.8%
September 30, 2024	$12.86	44.4x	1.3%	Short	−0.3%	+2.5%
September 30, 2020	$14.69	44.7x	1.3%	Short	+21.9%	+12.1%
March 31, 2020	$15.27	49.6x	1.9%	Short	−4.7%	+20.2%
December 31, 2019	$19.68	68.1x	0.6%	Short	−21.4%	−19.4%
September 30, 2019	$18.02	62.2x	0.8%	Short	+10.7%	+9.0%
June 30, 2019	$18.07	60.4x	3.6%	Short	+1.3%	+1.8%
March 31, 2019	$16.47	53.0x	6.9%	Short	+11.3%	+4.2%
December 31, 2018	$16.13	52.3x	7.4%	Short	+3.6%	+13.5%
September 30, 2018	$15.01	47.9x	12.1%	Short	+9.2%	−13.5%
June 30, 2018	$15.77	49.3x	13.0%	Short	−3.3%	+7.7%
March 31, 2018	$14.69	45.9x	12.8%	Short	+8.5%	+3.5%
December 31, 2017	$14.94	46.7x	13.2%	Short	−0.5%	−1.0%
September 30, 2017	$16.13	50.8x	13.2%	Short	−6.3%	+6.8%
June 30, 2017	$15.47	50.1x	13.0%	Short	+5.5%	+4.4%
March 31, 2017	$16.62	56.6x	13.2%	Short	−6.2%	+3.1%
December 31, 2016	$19.04	66.5x	15.4%	Short	−12.1%	+5.9%
September 30, 2016	$17.81	62.4x	27.5%	No position	+7.6%	+4.0%
June 30, 2016	$17.22	63.3x	46.4%	No position	+4.1%	+3.8%
March 31, 2016	$17.37	67.4x	75.7%	No position	−0.3%	+2.5%
December 31, 2015	$18.83	74.9x	86.9%	No position	−7.2%	+1.3%
September 30, 2015	$17.25	76.7x	52.6%	No position	+9.7%	+7.0%
June 30, 2015	$16.82	75.0x	40.8%	No position	+3.2%	−6.4%
March 31, 2015	$14.68	65.4x	38.6%	No position	+15.1%	+0.2%
December 31, 2014	$14.89	67.4x	91.9%	Long	−0.9%	+0.9%
December 31, 2013	$12.12	65.7x	69.8%	No position	+2.6%	+1.7%

Price paid: the closing price that day as traded, before any later share split.

What return on equity is the price paying for?

The price implies a return on equity of 16.4%; the company earned 5.3%.

Market more optimistic than our model: short this quarter

What the price implies What the company delivered

Quarters with a position610 long, 61 short, since June 30, 2011

Beat the S&P 50033 of 6154.1% of quarters held

Strategy against the index+59.2%cumulative; worst fall -32.6%

$10,000 became$104,527S&P 500 bought and held: $75,431

Over time

The return on equity that justifies the price-to-book ratio, (P/B)(r − g) + g with an 8.5% required return and 2.5% long-run growth, against the return the company delivered last year.

Return on equity delivered Return on equity the price implies Long quarter Short quarter. Lower panel: the share price at each quarter end, adjusted for later share splits and spin-offs (the table below gives the price as traded).

$10,000 trading the gap vs the S&P 500

Skill or luck?

In plain English: Across 61 quarters with a position, this lens beat the S&P 500 in 33, by +1.2% a quarter on average. That could easily be chance. One company is a small sample: the results across all companies are the better guide.

Positions	Quarters	Beat the S&P 500	Average vs S&P 500, a quarter	Typical (median), a quarter	A year	Confidence (t)	Evidence
Longs	0	—	—	—	—	—	—
Shorts	61	54.1%	+1.2%	+0.5%	+3.1%	1.00	No reliable evidence
All positions	61	54.1%	+1.2%	+0.5%	+3.1%	1.00	No reliable evidence

Every quarter (62)

From	Price paid	Return on equity the price implies	Return on equity delivered	Position	TFSL	S&P 500
September 30, 2026 (open)	$16.20	16.4%	5.3%	Short	+1.9%	−0.8%
June 30, 2026	$17.72	18.0%	4.9%	Short	−6.9%	+2.4%
March 31, 2026	$14.05	14.9%	4.8%	Short	+28.3%	+15.1%
December 31, 2025	$13.38	14.4%	4.8%	Short	+7.2%	−4.4%
September 30, 2025	$13.18	14.2%	4.4%	Short	+3.5%	+2.7%
June 30, 2025	$12.95	14.0%	4.3%	Short	+4.0%	+8.1%
March 31, 2025	$12.39	13.4%	4.3%	Short	+6.8%	+10.8%
December 31, 2024	$12.56	13.8%	4.2%	Short	+0.9%	−4.3%
September 30, 2024	$12.86	13.8%	4.3%	Short	−0.3%	+2.5%
June 30, 2024	$12.62	13.6%	4.2%	Short	+4.2%	+5.8%
March 31, 2024	$12.56	13.8%	4.0%	Short	+2.8%	+4.4%
December 31, 2023	$14.69	15.3%	4.0%	Short	−12.6%	+10.4%
September 30, 2023	$11.82	13.0%	4.4%	Short	+26.9%	+11.6%
June 30, 2023	$12.57	13.9%	4.4%	Short	−4.0%	−3.2%
March 31, 2023	$12.63	13.9%	4.5%	Short	+2.0%	+8.7%
December 31, 2022	$14.41	15.6%	4.2%	Short	−10.6%	+7.5%
September 30, 2022	$13.00	14.5%	3.8%	Short	+13.1%	+7.6%
June 30, 2022	$13.73	15.3%	3.7%	Short	−3.4%	−4.9%
March 31, 2022	$16.60	18.3%	4.2%	Short	−15.7%	−16.1%
December 31, 2021	$17.87	19.8%	4.8%	Short	−5.5%	−4.6%
September 30, 2021	$19.06	21.2%	4.6%	Short	−4.8%	+11.1%
June 30, 2021	$20.30	22.4%	5.3%	Short	−4.8%	+0.6%
March 31, 2021	$20.37	23.0%	4.9%	Short	+0.9%	+8.4%
December 31, 2020	$17.63	20.1%	5.0%	Short	+17.1%	+6.3%
September 30, 2020	$14.69	17.3%	5.4%	Short	+21.9%	+12.1%
June 30, 2020	$14.31	16.9%	4.9%	Short	+4.5%	+9.0%
March 31, 2020	$15.27	17.2%	4.9%	Short	−4.7%	+20.2%
December 31, 2019	$19.68	21.8%	4.6%	Short	−21.4%	−19.4%
September 30, 2019	$18.02	20.0%	4.7%	Short	+10.7%	+9.0%
June 30, 2019	$18.07	19.8%	4.8%	Short	+1.3%	+1.8%
March 31, 2019	$16.47	18.2%	5.0%	Short	+11.3%	+4.2%
December 31, 2018	$16.13	17.8%	5.0%	Short	+3.6%	+13.5%
September 30, 2018	$15.01	16.8%	5.1%	Short	+9.2%	−13.5%
June 30, 2018	$15.77	17.7%	5.2%	Short	−3.3%	+7.7%
March 31, 2018	$14.69	16.9%	5.3%	Short	+8.5%	+3.5%
December 31, 2017	$14.94	17.2%	5.3%	Short	−0.5%	−1.0%
September 30, 2017	$16.13	18.6%	5.3%	Short	−6.3%	+6.8%
June 30, 2017	$15.47	18.0%	5.1%	Short	+5.5%	+4.4%
March 31, 2017	$16.62	19.3%	4.9%	Short	−6.2%	+3.1%
December 31, 2016	$19.04	21.9%	4.8%	Short	−12.1%	+5.9%
September 30, 2016	$17.81	20.5%	4.7%	Short	+7.6%	+4.0%
June 30, 2016	$17.22	19.9%	4.5%	Short	+4.1%	+3.8%
March 31, 2016	$17.37	20.0%	4.2%	Short	−0.3%	+2.5%
December 31, 2015	$18.83	21.4%	4.1%	Short	−7.2%	+1.3%
September 30, 2015	$17.25	19.6%	3.6%	Short	+9.7%	+7.0%
June 30, 2015	$16.82	19.0%	3.6%	Short	+3.2%	−6.4%
March 31, 2015	$14.68	16.9%	3.6%	Short	+15.1%	+0.2%
December 31, 2014	$14.89	17.0%	3.5%	Short	−0.9%	+0.9%
September 30, 2014	$14.32	16.4%	3.5%	Short	+4.5%	+4.9%
June 30, 2014	$14.26	16.2%	3.5%	Short	+0.9%	+1.1%
March 31, 2014	$12.43	14.6%	3.3%	Short	+14.7%	+5.2%
December 31, 2013	$12.12	14.3%	3.0%	Short	+2.6%	+1.7%
September 30, 2013	$11.97	14.3%	2.3%	Short	+1.3%	+10.5%
June 30, 2013	$11.20	13.6%	1.4%	Short	+6.9%	+5.2%
March 31, 2013	$10.84	13.3%	0.8%	Short	+3.3%	+2.9%
December 31, 2012	$9.62	12.2%	0.6%	Short	+12.7%	+10.5%
September 30, 2012	$9.07	11.6%	1.1%	Short	+6.1%	−0.4%
June 30, 2012	$9.55	12.1%	1.4%	Short	−5.0%	+6.3%
March 31, 2012	$9.50	12.1%	1.4%	Short	+0.5%	−2.8%
December 31, 2011	$8.96	11.6%	0.5%	Short	+6.0%	+12.7%
September 30, 2011	$8.13	10.8%	-0.6%	Short	+10.2%	+11.6%
June 30, 2011	$9.68	12.5%	-0.3%	Short	−16.0%	−13.8%

Price paid: the closing price that day as traded, before any later share split.

How the test works

At each quarter end since March 2010 we rebuild the models from TFS Financial Corp's quarters ending at least 90 days earlier (and no more than 200 days before that), using the figures as later filed, including any restatement, and value them at that day's close, adjusted for later share splits and spin-offs so that price and share count are on the same basis. A wide enough gap is a long or a short for one quarter (growth 10 points; margin and return on equity 5 points; a PEG under 0.75 or over 3), measured on total return against the S&P 500. The rules were set before the test. No trading or borrowing costs; today's list of companies. Not investment advice. All companies and the results across them.

Compare with peers

Head to head: FOA vs TFSL AGM vs TFSL NMIH vs TFSL

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Figures from TFS Financial Corp's SEC filings (10-K and 10-Q), retrieved October 20, 2026. How we read and check them: methodology and data sources. Not investment advice. Back to TFS Financial Corp.