Ulta Beauty valuation and forecast
Explore the models for Ulta Beauty, adjust their assumptions and compare your own valuation with the platform's.
Your valuation workspace
What is ULTA worth to you?
Start with the company's financial data. Make the assumptions your own.
01 / Assumptions
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The cash flows behind your value
View annual figures
| Forecast year | Cash flow / share |
|---|
Negative cash flows are shown in terracotta. Before the terminal value and equity bridge. Residual-income models show excess earnings; dividend models show dividends.
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| Model | Your value / share | Weight |
|---|
The platform's price and consistency filters are not reapplied to your scenarios.
Other model types 17 unavailable for ULTA
Residual income
return on equity above 40%: buybacks or intangibles make book value too small an anchor
Revenue-to-maturity DCF
This model does not apply to this company with the available financial data.
Growth DCF
This model does not apply to this company with the available financial data.
P/B vs return on equity
This model does not apply to this company with the available financial data.
Peer price-to-book
This model does not apply to this company with the available financial data.
Peer P/E
This model does not apply to this company with the available financial data.
Peer price-to-FFO
This model does not apply to this company with the available financial data.
Peer price-to-sales
This model does not apply to this company with the available financial data.
Forward peer price-to-sales
This model does not apply to this company with the available financial data.
PEG comparison
This model does not apply to this company with the available financial data.
Two-stage dividend discount
This model does not apply to this company with the available financial data.
Growing-dividend model
This model does not apply to this company with the available financial data.
REIT funds from operations
This model does not apply to this company with the available financial data.
Utility earnings
This model does not apply to this company with the available financial data.
Book value / net assets
This model does not apply to this company with the available financial data.
Reported crypto treasury NAV
This model does not apply to this company with the available financial data.
Proved-reserve NAV
This model does not apply to this company with the available financial data.
Model values are estimates under the assumptions shown. They are not share-price forecasts or investment advice.
Valuation models compared
range across growth cases central value market price $631.95
Different models answer different questions: the cash-flow models ask what the business generates for owners; the peer multiples ask what similar companies in our coverage trade on. Where they disagree, the gap is the story. Projections are estimates based on current data, updated daily. Not investment advice. How each model works.
Analyst recommendations
Monthly trend
- Oct 202628
- Sep 202628
- Aug 202627
- Jul 202627
Counts of recommendations published by analysts covering Ulta Beauty, by month. Source: Aggregated broker recommendations (third-party data). Aggregated counts only: we do not reproduce any firm's recommendation or price target, and these are not Fundamentalytics ratings.
Price history
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Third-party market data · may be delayed
Five-year projection
- Share price
- Higher growth
- Base case
- Lower growth
Today: lower growth ~$430 · base case ~$580 · higher growth ~$770 · share price $632.13
Where our model's value per share would be at each point if that growth case plays out — not a forecast of the share price, which can stay above or below value for long periods. How projections are calculated.
Projections are estimates based on current data, updated daily. Not investment advice.
How our value has changed
View the data
| Period | Our value per share |
|---|---|
| FY2022 Q3 (backtest) | $426 |
| FY2022 Q4 (backtest) | $518 |
| FY2023 Q1 (backtest) | $577 |
| FY2023 Q2 (backtest) | $681 |
| FY2023 Q3 (backtest) | $637 |
| FY2023 Q4 (backtest) | $732 |
| FY2024 Q1 (backtest) | $829 |
| FY2024 Q2 (backtest) | $860 |
| FY2024 Q3 (backtest) | $711 |
| FY2024 Q4 (backtest) | $847 |
| FY2025 Q1 (backtest) | $647 |
| FY2025 Q2 (backtest) | $556 |
| FY2025 Q3 (backtest) | $477 |
| FY2025 Q4 (backtest) | $465 |
| FY2026 Q1 (backtest) | $423 |
| FY2026 Q2 (backtest) | $427 |
| FY2026 Q3 (backtest) | $451 |
| FY2026 Q4 (backtest) | $566 |
| FY2027 Q1 (backtest) | $596 |
| FY2027 Q2 (backtest) | $604 |
Our model re-run on each past quarter's filed figures: how the method would have valued Ulta Beauty at the time (a backtest — our dated public record starts at launch). The grey line is the share price at month end, for comparison.
Five-year model value, by case
| Year | Lower growth | Base case | Higher growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Latest filing | ~$430 | ~$580 | ~$770 |
| 2027 | ~$450 | ~$600 | ~$800 |
| 2028 | ~$460 | ~$620 | ~$840 |
| 2029 | ~$470 | ~$650 | ~$880 |
| 2030 | ~$480 | ~$670 | ~$910 |
| 2031 | ~$500 | ~$690 | ~$950 |
Projections are estimates based on current data, updated daily. Not investment advice. How projections are calculated.
The assumptions
- Free cash flow (TTM, FY2027 Q2)
- $1.1B
- Less stock-based pay
- $47.2M
- Cash flow we value
- $1.1B
- Growth, years 1–5 (base)
- 8.8%
- Then fading to
- 2.5%
- Discount rate
- 8.5%
- Net cash added
- -$126M
- Diluted shares
- 43M
What would move the value
- Growth 5 points lower
- −25%
- Growth 5 points higher
- +32%
- Free-cash-flow margin 1 point lower
- −11%
- Discount rate 1 point higher
- −15%
Change in our model value when one input moves, all else equal.
ULTA valuation questions
- What is Ulta Beauty worth per share?
- Our discounted-cash-flow model of Ulta Beauty's free cash flow after stock-based pay puts its value at ~$580 per share in the base case, with a range of ~$430–$770 across lower- and higher-growth cases. Model values under stated assumptions, not a price target or recommendation.
- What could Ulta Beauty be worth by 2031?
- If our base case plays out, the model's value per share would be about ~$690 by 2031 (~$500–$950 across our lower- and higher-growth cases). This is where the model's value would be, not a forecast of the share price, which can stay above or below value for long periods.
- How does Fundamentalytics value Ulta Beauty?
- We value Ulta Beauty's normalised cash flow after stock-based pay using a ten-year discounted-cash-flow model. Near-term growth can incorporate forecasts and guidance; growth then fades to the long-run rate. The equity bridge adds cash and subtracts debt and other claims. The calculator shows the company data and assumptions you can adjust.
Data: SEC EDGAR filings, retrieved October 20, 2026. Method: how we value companies. Disclosures: research and recommendations disclosure. Back to Ulta Beauty.