Vici Properties is a US-listed company in the hotel & resort REITs industry. Its financial year ends in December.
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~$38
Valuation models combined (2)
Base case. Range ~$36–$40. Weighted average of 2 models (funds-from-operations model, dividend discount (growing dividend)), the funds-from-operations model counting double.
No Buy/Hold/Sell rating is issued: only 2 valuation models apply; a rating needs 3.
Vici Properties valuation: adjust assumptions and compare models →
What company insiders, investment funds and members of Congress have been doing with the stock, from their own filings.
Model value −4.5%
Revenue for the twelve months to September 2026 was $4.16bn, up 4.7% on a year earlier, about the same pace as a quarter earlier. The diluted share count is up 2.1% on a year earlier, which dilutes existing holders. Its fundamentals grade moves from B+ to B. Our model value falls from $39.84 to $38.06 a share, against a share price of $24.59.
Source: 10-Q filed October 28, 2026 on SEC EDGAR · Financials · Valuation
Vici Properties generated $4.16bn in revenue over the twelve months to June 2026, a rise of 4.7% on the prior year and broadly in line with the pace set a quarter earlier. Among the hotel & resort REITs we cover, that growth places the company 3rd of 11. Shareholders, however, face some dilution: the diluted share count has grown 2.1% year on year. On the positives side, the fundamentals grade has improved from B to B+. Our model value has slipped slightly, from $40.26 to $39.84 a share, though this remains well above the current share price of $23.70. Taking all this together, the rating holds at Buy.
Revenue for the twelve months to June 2026 was $4.10bn, up 4.4% on a year earlier, about the same pace as a quarter earlier. Our valuation models combined value is $40.35 a share, against a share price of $23.39.
Written from the company's filings and our models when each quarter's report arrives. Figures in older notes are as published at the time. Not investment advice.
Vici Properties's trailing-twelve-month revenue grew 4.7% year on year, with a free-cash-flow margin of 65.1%. Where it stands out: net margin of 56.5% ranks 1 of 15 hotel & resort reits companies we cover. Where it lags: change in share count of 2.1% ranks 11 of 12 hotel & resort reits companies we cover.
Current signal Free cash flow diverging from earnings: TTM free cash flow grew 9.9% while net income fell 15.8%: a 26pp divergence.
Assembled from SEC-filed figures — the full workings are on this page and in our methodology. Observations, not recommendations.
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Company announcements, filed results and changes that matter to shareholders.
Vici Properties reports on Wednesday 28 October, after the market closes. Analysts expect full-year EPS of $2.75; these are the numbers and trends the report will test.
The company also guided to estimated adjusted funds from operations (affo) per diluted share of $2.45 to $2.47 for the year ending December 31, 2026; estimated weighted average share count for the year of 1,090.30 for the For the Year Ending December 31, 2026.
We value Vici Properties as an equity reit, with every model that fits that kind of business. Cost of equity 7.5%: the 10-year Treasury yield (4.9%) plus a beta of 0.58 times a 4.5% equity risk premium.
| Model | Value per share | In the combined value? |
|---|---|---|
| Funds-from-operations model Funds from operations growing 2.5% a year, discounted at 8%. | ~$40 ~$33–$49 | Primary model, counts double |
| Price-to-FFO vs peers Funds from operations per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) price-to-FFO. | ~$0.8 ~$18–$37 | Left out: out of range vs price (0.03x) |
| Dividend discount (growing dividend) Today's dividend growing 2.5% a year, discounted at the cost of equity. | ~$36 ~$30–$45 | Included |
| Combined value Weighted average of the models that apply: the primary model (funds-from-operations model) counts double. Models more than 5x or less than 0.2x the share price, or more than 3x away from the other models' median, are left out. | ~$38 ~$36–$40 | 2 models |
Different models fail in different ways, so where several apply we average them rather than trust one. Peer-based models compare Vici Properties with equity REITs in our coverage, using third-party market data. Model values are estimates under stated assumptions, updated as new filings arrive; not price targets or investment advice. How each model works.
Strong moat
How hard Vici Properties's competitive advantage looks for rivals to wear away, judged from 9 years of its own filings: returns on capital, pricing power, profit durability, cash conversion and discipline.
Net income has been a median 4.9% of total assets over 9 years.
Gross margin has been a median 99.0%, moving by 0.5 percentage points (standard deviation) across 9 years.
Net margin has been a median 66.8%; its worst year was 35.9%.
Free cash flow was positive in 9 of 9 years, at a median 63.6% of revenue.
The diluted share count rose 94.6% over five years; stock-based pay has been a median 0.4% of revenue.
AI disruption exposure: Low. In this industry, the business rests on physical assets, regulated networks or products AI itself depends on.
| Fiscal year | EPS | Growth | Revenue | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | $2.75 | +5% | $4.2bn | +5% |
| Next | $2.99 | +9% | $4.4bn | +3% |
Next year's EPS estimate has moved +2.0% in 90 days, across 1 analysts.
The consensus EPS forecast for the current fiscal year is −6.5% on 90 days ago. In the last 30 days, 0 analysts raised Vici Properties's forecast and 0 cut it.
Average of analysts' published estimates (third-party data).
| Period | Current fiscal year | Next fiscal year |
|---|---|---|
| 90 days ago | $2.94 | $2.93 |
| 60 days ago | $2.75 | $2.99 |
| 30 days ago | $2.75 | $2.99 |
| 7 days ago | $2.75 | $2.99 |
| Now | $2.75 | $2.99 |
| Quarter to | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sept 2026 | $0.72 | $0.31 | −56.8% |
| Jun 2026 | $0.71 | $0.48 | −31.8% |
| Mar 2026 | $0.71 | $0.82 | +15.0% |
| Dec 2025 | $0.70 | $0.57 | −19.1% |
Adjusted EPS as companies report it, against the average analyst estimate.
Last 12 months −10.8%
| Part | Then | Now | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (last 12 months) | $3.9bn | $4.1bn | +4.4% |
| Net margin | 70.2% | 67.5% | −3.8% |
| P/E multiple | 10.7x | 9.7x | −9.5% |
| Share count | 1055m | 1074m | −1.8% |
Biggest factor: p/e multiple.
Last 3 years +2.4%
| Part | Then | Now | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (last 12 months) | $3.3bn | $4.1bn | +24.3% |
| Net margin | 65.0% | 67.5% | +3.8% |
| P/E multiple | 11.2x | 9.7x | −13.6% |
| Share count | 987m | 1074m | −8.1% |
Biggest factor: revenue.
| Calendar year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 to date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return | ||||||
| VICI | +24% | +13% | +4% | −3% | +2% | −6% |
| Industry peers (median) | +11% | −18% | +14% | −1% | −18% | +53% |
| S&P 500 | +29% | −18% | +26% | +25% | +18% | +11% |
| Months that ended higher | ||||||
| VICI | 58% | 50% | 50% | 58% | 42% | 36% |
| S&P 500 | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 75% | 46% |
| Largest fall from a high during the year | ||||||
| VICI | −17% | −16% | −19% | −16% | −17% | −22% |
| S&P 500 | −5% | −25% | −10% | −8% | −19% | −9% |
Worst fall since January 2, 2018: 60% from February 21, 2020 to March 18, 2020. Getting back needed a 151% gain, reached on February 2, 2021, 321 days after the low.
| Results released | Next day | S&P 500 next day | 5 days | 21 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 28, 2026 | +3.5% | 0.0% | — | — |
| July 29, 2026 | −2.9% | +0.1% | −2.6% | −4.9% |
| April 29, 2026 | +1.9% | +1.0% | 0.0% | −1.5% |
| February 25, 2026 | −1.7% | +0.3% | −1.3% | −8.8% |
| October 30, 2025 | +1.0% | −0.8% | +0.3% | −3.7% |
| July 30, 2025 | −0.8% | −0.5% | +0.4% | +1.9% |
| April 30, 2025 | −2.3% | +0.7% | −1.9% | −1.7% |
| February 20, 2025 | +2.6% | −2.1% | +6.1% | +4.8% |
| October 31, 2024 | −3.0% | −1.5% | −4.6% | −0.6% |
| July 31, 2024 | −0.3% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +5.2% |
| May 1, 2024 | +0.9% | +0.6% | +2.5% | +0.6% |
| February 22, 2024 | +1.3% | +2.1% | +0.9% | −1.4% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 29, 2026.
| Period | Revenue (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY23 Q4 | $3.6B |
| FY24 Q1 | $3.7B |
| FY24 Q2 | $3.7B |
| FY24 Q3 | $3.8B |
| FY24 Q4 | $3.8B |
| FY25 Q1 | $3.9B |
| FY25 Q2 | $3.9B |
| FY25 Q3 | $4B |
| FY25 Q4 | $4B |
| FY26 Q1 | $4B |
| FY26 Q2 | $4.1B |
| FY26 Q3 | $4.2B |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 29, 2026.
| Period | Revenue growth, TTM YoY |
|---|---|
| FY23 Q4 | 38.9% |
| FY24 Q1 | 20.4% |
| FY24 Q2 | 13.6% |
| FY24 Q3 | 10.3% |
| FY24 Q4 | 6.6% |
| FY25 Q1 | 5.3% |
| FY25 Q2 | 4.8% |
| FY25 Q3 | 4.3% |
| FY25 Q4 | 4.1% |
| FY26 Q1 | 4.1% |
| FY26 Q2 | 4.4% |
| FY26 Q3 | 4.7% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 29, 2026.
| Period | Operating margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY18 Q3 | 82.2% |
| FY18 Q4 | 84.4% |
| FY19 Q1 | 86.3% |
| FY19 Q2 | 88.1% |
| FY19 Q3 | 91.9% |
| FY19 Q4 | 94.2% |
| FY20 Q1 | 77.9% |
| FY20 Q2 | 85.5% |
| FY20 Q3 | 70.0% |
| FY20 Q4 | 26.2% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 29, 2026.
| Period | FCF margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY23 Q4 | 60.3% |
| FY24 Q1 | 59.6% |
| FY24 Q2 | 60.9% |
| FY24 Q3 | 60.6% |
| FY24 Q4 | 61.7% |
| FY25 Q1 | 62.5% |
| FY25 Q2 | 62.4% |
| FY25 Q3 | 62.0% |
| FY25 Q4 | 62.6% |
| FY26 Q1 | 63.1% |
| FY26 Q2 | 64.4% |
| FY26 Q3 | 65.1% |
| Fiscal year | 2017 Dec 2017 | 2018 Dec 2018 | 2019 Dec 2019 | 2020 Dec 2020 | 2021 Dec 2021 | 2022 Dec 2022 | 2023 Dec 2023 | 2024 Dec 2024 | 2025 Dec 2025 | LTM Sept 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | ||||||||||
| Revenue | 0.2 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 4.2 |
| Gross profit | — | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 4.1 |
| EBITDA | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating income | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net income | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.3 |
| Diluted EPS | — | $1.43 | $1.24 | $1.75 | $1.76 | $1.27 | $2.47 | $2.56 | $2.61 | $2.17 |
| Growth (year on year) | ||||||||||
| Revenue | — | +378.6% | −0.4% | +37.0% | +23.2% | +72.3% | +38.9% | +6.6% | +4.1% | +4.7% |
| EBITDA | — | −0.9% | −60.9% | +478.6% | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating income | — | −2.9% | −62.6% | +513.8% | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net income | — | +>999% | +4.3% | +63.3% | +13.7% | +10.2% | +124.9% | +6.6% | +3.6% | −15.8% |
| Diluted EPS | — | — | −13.3% | +41.1% | +0.6% | −27.8% | +94.5% | +3.6% | +2.0% | −17.5% |
| Margins | ||||||||||
| Gross margin | — | 98.1% | 97.9% | 98.6% | 98.6% | 99.1% | 99.3% | 99.3% | 99.3% | 99.3% |
| EBITDA margin | 77.3% | 16.0% | 6.3% | 26.5% | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating margin | 76.9% | 15.6% | 5.8% | 26.2% | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net margin | 23.7% | 58.3% | 61.0% | 72.8% | 67.2% | 43.0% | 69.6% | 69.6% | 69.3% | 56.5% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | — | 56.0% | 75.9% | 71.9% | 59.2% | 74.7% | 60.3% | 61.7% | 62.6% | 65.1% |
| Cash flow | ||||||||||
| Cash from operations | — | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.7 |
| Capital spending | — | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Free cash flow | — | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.7 |
| Stock-based pay | — | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | — | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.7 |
| Balance sheet | ||||||||||
| Cash | 0.2 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| Total debt | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 6.9 | 4.8 | 14.0 | 17.1 | 17.1 | 17.1 | 17.2 |
| Net debt (negative = net cash) | 4.0 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 13.7 | 16.6 | 16.6 | 16.5 | 16.9 |
| Diluted shares | — | 367m | 439m | 511m | 577m | 880m | 1,016m | 1,048m | 1,063m | 1,082m |
| Returned to shareholders | ||||||||||
| Dividends | — | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| Total returned | — | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| Quarter | 2024 Q4 Dec 2024 | 2025 Q1 Mar 2025 | 2025 Q2 Jun 2025 | 2025 Q3 Sept 2025 | 2025 Q4 Dec 2025 | 2026 Q1 Mar 2026 | 2026 Q2 Jun 2026 | 2026 Q3 Sept 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | ||||||||
| Revenue | 976 | 984 | 1,001 | 1,007 | 1,013 | 1,019 | 1,059 | 1,065 |
| Gross profit | 969 | 978 | 995 | 1,001 | 1,006 | 1,012 | 1,051 | 1,059 |
| Net income | 615 | 544 | 865 | 762 | 605 | 872 | 527 | 343 |
| Diluted EPS | $0.58 | $0.51 | $0.82 | $0.71 | $0.56 | $0.82 | $0.48 | $0.31 |
| Growth (year on year) | ||||||||
| Revenue | +4.7% | +3.4% | +4.6% | +4.4% | +3.8% | +3.5% | +5.7% | +5.8% |
| Net income | −17.8% | −7.9% | +16.7% | +4.0% | −1.6% | +60.5% | −39.1% | −55.1% |
| Diluted EPS | −19.4% | −10.5% | +15.5% | +1.4% | −3.4% | +60.8% | −41.5% | −56.3% |
| Margins | ||||||||
| Gross margin | 99.3% | 99.4% | 99.3% | 99.3% | 99.3% | 99.4% | 99.3% | 99.4% |
| Net margin | 63.0% | 55.2% | 86.4% | 75.6% | 59.7% | 85.7% | 49.7% | 32.1% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 65.9% | 60.1% | 63.8% | 58.2% | 68.3% | 62.0% | 68.8% | 61.2% |
| Cash flow | ||||||||
| Cash from operations | 644 | 592 | 640 | 586 | 692 | 632 | 728 | 655 |
| Capital spending | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Free cash flow | 643 | 592 | 639 | 586 | 692 | 631 | 728 | 653 |
| Stock-based pay | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | 638 | 589 | 635 | 582 | 687 | 627 | 723 | 648 |
| Last 12 months unless stated | VICI | HST | RHP | PK | SVC | PEB | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $4.2bn | $6.2bn | $2.7bn | $2.5bn | $1.7bn | $1.5bn | $1.4bn |
| Revenue growth, last 12 months | 4.7% | 4.9% | 12.2% | −1.4% | −11.9% | 2.8% | 1.2% |
| Revenue growth, 3-year average | 6.4% | 6.0% | 10.5% | −1.9% | −4.1% | 2.3% | 1.5% |
| Revenue growth, latest quarter | 5.8% | 3.4% | 13.6% | 1.2% | −16.4% | 1.0% | 3.4% |
| Gross margin | 99.3% | — | 43.8% | — | 40.0% | — | 40.0% |
| Operating margin | 26.2% | 14.6% | 19.8% | 2.0% | 18.7% | 3.1% | 12.8% |
| Operating margin, 3-year average | 68.3% | 15.2% | 20.3% | 11.1% | 18.0% | 3.4% | 13.0% |
| Net margin | 56.5% | 16.5% | 9.9% | −6.4% | −25.4% | −4.6% | 2.0% |
| Cash from operations / revenue | 65.1% | 25.8% | 25.2% | 15.9% | 7.4% | 19.0% | 19.8% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 65.1% | 21.4% | 10.0% | 3.2% | −4.2% | 14.6% | 10.6% |
| Free-cash-flow margin, 3-year average | 62.5% | 21.2% | 9.2% | 5.8% | −5.2% | −6.0% | 7.3% |
| Stock pay / revenue | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.7% |
| Change in share count | 2.1% | −1.3% | 4.9% | −2.0% | −19.7% | 2.8% | −1.3% |
| Measure | Company | Peer median | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth Growth | 4.7% | 1.2% | 4 of 15 |
| Change in growth rate Growth | +0.3pp | +0.7pp | 10 of 15 |
| Net margin Profitability | 56.5% | 2.0% | 1 of 15 |
| Stock pay as % of revenue Cash generation | 0.4% | 0.7% | 4 of 13 |
| Long-term debt as % of assets Balance sheet | 35.2% | 45.0% | 5 of 14 |
| Change in share count Balance sheet | 2.1% | -1.3% | 11 of 12 |
Rank 1 = best in the group (for spending, debt and dilution, lower ranks first).
| Manager | Value | Shares | Share of 13F value | Shares QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackrock, Inc. | $3.4B | 129.3M | 12.2% | ▼ 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC | $2.3B | 86.3M | 8.2% | ▲ 2.9% |
| State Street Corp | $1.8B | 67.2M | 6.5% | ▲ 4.5% |
| Vanguard Capital Management LLC | $1.7B | 65.3M | 6.2% | ▲ 2.3% |
| Geode Capital Management, LLC | $1.1B | 40.2M | 3.9% | ▲ 4.0% |
| Allianz Asset Management Gmbh | $836M | 31.3M | 3.0% | ▲ 1.0% |
| Bank Of America Corp | $779M | 29.3M | 2.8% | ▲ 4.9% |
| Price T Rowe Associates Inc | $638M | 24.0M | 2.3% | ▲ 27.3% |
| Jpmorgan Chase & Co | $574M | 21.1M | 2.0% | ▼ 16.8% |
| Invesco Ltd. | $461M | 17.4M | 1.6% | ▲ 2.0% |
| Northern Trust Corp | $436M | 16.4M | 1.6% | ▲ 5.6% |
| Dimensional Fund Advisors LP | $425M | 16.0M | 1.5% | ▲ 3.6% |
From Form 13F filings with the SEC ( quarterly data sets), as reported by each manager for June 30, 2026 and filed up to 45 days later. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M only, so this is not Vici Properties's complete shareholder register. Values are as reported by the filers ; 4 inconsistently scaled filing rows were excluded.
From insiders' Form 4 filings with the SEC. Excludes awards, option exercises and shares withheld for tax. "Pre-set plan" means the filing marks the trade as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. See every insider trade since five years ago, on a price chart.
In the last 12 months, 1 member of Congress disclosed 2 purchases and 1 sale of Vici Properties shares.
Next expected around January 27, 2027 estimated from the company's past filing pattern, not announced
| Data | Last updated | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | Exchange closing prices | |
| Financial statements | SEC 10-K and 10-Q filings | |
| News and updates | Company releases and SEC 8-K filings | |
| Analyst estimates | Aggregated analyst estimates | |
| Valuation and scores | Our models, from the filed figures |
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