Exzeo Group, Inc. is a US-listed company in the application software industry. Its financial year ends in December.
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~$48
Cash-flow model
Base case. Range ~$37–$62 across our lower- and higher-growth cases (15%–25% a year).
No Buy/Hold/Sell rating is issued: limited reported history: available models are shown without a Buy/Hold/Sell rating.
Exzeo Group, Inc. valuation: adjust assumptions and compare models →
What company insiders, investment funds and members of Congress have been doing with the stock, from their own filings.
Revenue for the twelve months to June 2026 was $222m. Free-cash-flow margin held at 36.8%. Operating margin widened to 48.5% from 40.8%. It passes 2 of our 2 financial-health checks. Our valuation models combined value is $12.29 a share, against a share price of $17.60.
Source: 10-Q filed August 7, 2026 on SEC EDGAR · Financials · Valuation
Written from the company's filings and our models when each quarter's report arrives. Figures in older notes are as published at the time. Not investment advice.
Exzeo Group, Inc.'s trailing-twelve-month revenue grew 21.8% year on year, with a free-cash-flow margin of 36.8%.
Our discounted-cash-flow model values the business at ~$48 per share in the base case (~$37–$62 across growth scenarios) — model values under stated assumptions, not a price target.
Current signal Gross margin expanding: TTM gross margin reached 62.3%, up 11.7pp year over year.
Assembled from SEC-filed figures — the full workings are on this page and in our methodology. Observations, not recommendations.
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Third-party market data · may be delayed
Company announcements, filed results and changes that matter to shareholders.
Our value per share comes from a discounted-cash-flow model of Exzeo Group, Inc.'s free cash flow after stock-based pay ( $97.4M, FY2026 Q2 TTM, with after-tax interest added back): growth for five years as below (the first two years from forecasts, guidance and the company's record), fading to 2.5%, discounted at 8.5%, then cash added and debt and other claims subtracted. These are model values under stated assumptions, not price targets or recommendations.
We value Exzeo Group, Inc. as an operating company, with every model that fits that kind of business. Cost of equity 9.9%: the 10-year Treasury yield (4.9%) plus a beta of 1.1 times a 4.5% equity risk premium.
| Model | Value per share | In the combined value? |
|---|---|---|
| Cash-flow model (DCF) Free cash flow to the firm (after stock pay, with after-tax interest added back), grown then faded to 2.5%, discounted at 8.5% as the firm rate, less debt and other claims. | ~$48 ~$37–$62 | Primary model, counts double |
| Price-to-earnings vs peers Earnings per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) price-to-earnings. | ~$2.2 ~$16–$37 | Left out: out of range vs price (0.12x) |
| Residual income Book value plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, fading over ten years. | — | Does not apply: return on equity above 40%: buybacks or intangibles make book value too small an anchor |
| Justified price-to-book Book value times (return on equity - growth) / (cost of equity - growth): steady-state returns. | ~$11 ~$9.5–$13 | Included |
| Combined value Weighted average of the models that apply: the primary model (cash-flow model (dcf)) counts double. Models more than 5x or less than 0.2x the share price, or more than 3x away from the other models' median, are left out. | ~$36 ~$11–$48 | 2 models |
Different models fail in different ways, so where several apply we average them rather than trust one. Peer-based models compare Exzeo Group, Inc. with Application Software in our coverage, using third-party market data. Model values are estimates under stated assumptions, updated as new filings arrive; not price targets or investment advice. How each model works.
| Discount rate ↓ / growth → | −5% growth | 0% growth | 5% growth | 10% growth | 15% growth | 20% growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7% | $17 | $23 | $30 | $40 | $52 | $69 |
| 8.5% | $13 | $17 | $23 | $30 | $39 | $50 |
| 10% | $11 | $14 | $18 | $24 | $31 | $39 |
| At fiscal year end | 2025 |
|---|---|
| Share price | $24.25 |
| Market value | $1.9bn |
| + Net debt (− = net cash) | −$305m |
| Enterprise value | $1.6bn |
| Multiples | |
| Price / sales | 9.0x |
| Price / earnings | 23.5x |
| Price / free cash flow | 19.9x |
| EV / EBITDA | 15.1x |
Not assessed: fewer than five years of comparable figures in the filings. AI disruption exposure for this industry: High.
Next results: November 4, 2026, after the close. Analysts expect revenue of $55m and EPS of $0.26 (range $0.26 to $0.26) for the quarter.
| Fiscal year | EPS | Growth | Revenue | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | $1.00 | +1% | $224m | +3% |
| Next | $1.15 | +15% | $261m | +16% |
Next year's EPS estimate has moved 0.0% in 90 days, across 1 analysts.
The consensus EPS forecast for the current fiscal year is 0.0% on 90 days ago. In the last 30 days, 1 analyst raised Exzeo Group, Inc.'s forecast and 0 cut it.
Average of analysts' published estimates (third-party data).
| Period | Current fiscal year | Next fiscal year |
|---|---|---|
| 90 days ago | $1.00 | $1.15 |
| 60 days ago | $1.00 | $1.15 |
| 30 days ago | $1.00 | $1.15 |
| 7 days ago | $1.00 | $1.15 |
| Now | $1.00 | $1.15 |
| Quarter to | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026 | $0.24 | $0.26 | +8.3% |
| Dec 2025 | $0.20 | $0.25 | +25.0% |
| Sept 2025 | $0.25 | $0.25 | 0.0% |
Adjusted EPS as companies report it, against the average analyst estimate.
Our cash-flow model grows Exzeo Group, Inc.'s revenue by +15.2% next year and +19.5% the year after, then fades back toward its own record by year five. Next year's rate weighs analysts' consensus (+9.5%, weight 45%) and the company's own record (+20.0%, weight 55%) . How the weights are set.
| Calendar year | 2026 to date |
|---|---|
| Return | |
| XZO | −25% |
| Industry peers (median) | −14% |
| S&P 500 | +11% |
| Months that ended higher | |
| XZO | 46% |
| S&P 500 | 46% |
| Largest fall from a high during the year | |
| XZO | −48% |
| S&P 500 | −9% |
Worst fall since November 5, 2025: 48% from December 31, 2025 to June 4, 2026. Getting back needed a 93% gain, and the shares have not yet recovered.
| Results released | Next day | S&P 500 next day | 5 days | 21 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 6, 2026 | −3.7% | +0.5% | −2.7% | +2.8% |
| May 6, 2026 | −19.2% | +1.1% | −22.4% | −23.4% |
| February 25, 2026 | +9.0% | +0.3% | +2.2% | −8.3% |
| December 10, 2025 | +14.3% | +0.9% | +5.6% | +29.4% |
| November 7, 2025 | +1.7% | +1.7% | −6.0% | −8.4% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 29, 2026.
| Period | Revenue (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY25 Q2 | $182.1M |
| FY25 Q3 | $208.2M |
| FY25 Q4 | $217M |
| FY26 Q1 | $220.1M |
| FY26 Q2 | $221.8M |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 29, 2026.
| Period | Operating margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY25 Q2 | 40.8% |
| FY25 Q3 | 45.5% |
| FY25 Q4 | 48.8% |
| FY26 Q1 | 48.7% |
| FY26 Q2 | 48.5% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 29, 2026.
| Period | FCF margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY25 Q3 | 50.8% |
| FY25 Q4 | 44.9% |
| FY26 Q1 | 47.1% |
| FY26 Q2 | 36.8% |
Each dollar Exzeo Group took in during FY2025, followed through to profit: what it cost to make, what went on research and running the business, and what was left after tax.
| Revenue | $217M | |
|---|---|---|
| Other income | $4.3M | 2.0% of revenue |
| Cost of revenue | $86M | 39.6% of revenue |
| Gross profit | $131M | 60.4% of revenue |
| Research and development | $8.8M | 4.1% of revenue |
| Selling, general and admin | $15.7M | 7.2% of revenue |
| Operating income | $106M | 48.8% of revenue |
| Income tax | $27.5M | 12.7% of revenue |
| Net income | $82.7M | 38.1% of revenue |
| Fiscal year | 2023 Dec 2023 | 2024 Dec 2024 | 2025 Dec 2025 | LTM Jun 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | ||||
| Revenue | 88 | 134 | 217 | 222 |
| Gross profit | 17 | 53 | 131 | 138 |
| EBITDA | 4 | 40 | 108 | 110 |
| Operating income | 3 | 38 | 106 | 108 |
| Net income | 21 | 45 | 83 | 87 |
| Diluted EPS | $0.15 | $0.44 | $0.99 | — |
| Growth (year on year) | ||||
| Revenue | — | +51.6% | +62.0% | +21.8% |
| EBITDA | — | +804.2% | +169.4% | +43.6% |
| Operating income | — | +>999% | +178.8% | +45.0% |
| Net income | — | +111.2% | +82.6% | +53.5% |
| Diluted EPS | — | +193.3% | +125.0% | — |
| Margins | ||||
| Gross margin | 19.6% | 39.7% | 60.4% | 62.3% |
| EBITDA margin | 5.0% | 30.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% |
| Operating margin | 2.9% | 28.4% | 48.8% | 48.5% |
| Net margin | 24.3% | 33.8% | 38.1% | 39.1% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 7.8% | 34.3% | 44.9% | 36.8% |
| Cash flow | ||||
| Cash from operations | 10 | 49 | 100 | 84 |
| Capital spending | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| Free cash flow | 7 | 46 | 97 | 82 |
| Stock-based pay | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | 4 | 43 | 95 | 80 |
| Balance sheet | ||||
| Cash | 15 | 55 | 305 | 137 |
| Total debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Net debt (negative = net cash) | −15 | −55 | −305 | −137 |
| Diluted shares | 76m | 77m | 80m | — |
| Returned to shareholders | ||||
| Buybacks | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| Total returned | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| Quarter | 2024 Q3 Sept 2024 | 2024 Q4 Dec 2024 | 2025 Q1 Mar 2025 | 2025 Q2 Jun 2025 | 2025 Q3 Sept 2025 | 2025 Q4 Dec 2025 | 2026 Q1 Mar 2026 | 2026 Q2 Jun 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | ||||||||
| Revenue | 29 | 45 | 52 | 56 | 55 | 53 | 56 | 58 |
| Gross profit | 11 | 19 | 29 | 34 | 34 | 35 | 33 | 37 |
| EBITDA | 7 | 16 | 24 | 29 | 28 | 27 | 26 | 29 |
| Operating income | 7 | 16 | 24 | 28 | 27 | 27 | 25 | 28 |
| Net income | 5 | 12 | 18 | 22 | 21 | 22 | 20 | 23 |
| Diluted EPS | $0.06 | $0.15 | $0.22 | $0.26 | $0.25 | $0.26 | $0.22 | $0.26 |
| Growth (year on year) | ||||||||
| Revenue | — | — | — | — | +89.5% | +19.7% | +6.0% | +3.0% |
| EBITDA | — | — | — | — | +282.6% | +69.7% | +5.1% | +1.1% |
| Operating income | — | — | — | — | +304.9% | +72.1% | +5.4% | +1.2% |
| Net income | — | — | — | — | +302.3% | +87.9% | +13.7% | +7.4% |
| Diluted EPS | — | — | — | — | +316.7% | +73.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Margins | ||||||||
| Gross margin | 38.2% | 42.0% | 55.0% | 59.8% | 61.2% | 65.4% | 59.0% | 63.7% |
| EBITDA margin | 25.0% | 36.3% | 46.5% | 51.2% | 50.5% | 51.4% | 46.2% | 50.3% |
| Operating margin | 23.1% | 35.0% | 45.4% | 50.1% | 49.4% | 50.3% | 45.2% | 49.3% |
| Net margin | 18.1% | 26.3% | 34.3% | 38.6% | 38.3% | 41.2% | 36.7% | 40.3% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | — | 43.3% | 36.3% | 66.4% | 54.9% | 20.4% | 45.3% | 26.3% |
| Cash flow | ||||||||
| Cash from operations | — | 20 | 20 | 38 | 31 | 11 | 25 | 15 |
| Capital spending | — | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Free cash flow | — | 19 | 19 | 37 | 30 | 11 | 25 | 15 |
| Stock-based pay | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Free cash flow after stock pay | — | 19 | 18 | 37 | 30 | 10 | 24 | 14 |
| Last 12 months unless stated | XZO | IIIV | AI | GCL | VTEX | PDFS | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $222m | $218m | $232m | $239m | $241m | $241m | $479m |
| Revenue growth, last 12 months | 21.8% | 4.1% | −37.5% | 68.2% | 6.1% | 23.0% | 12.0% |
| Revenue growth, 3-year average | — | 21.0% | −5.3% | — | — | 14.0% | 11.1% |
| Revenue growth, latest quarter | 3.0% | 2.2% | −25.5% | — | — | 18.9% | 11.8% |
| Gross margin | 62.3% | 88.9% | 29.1% | 10.3% | 77.5% | 71.5% | 69.2% |
| Operating margin | 48.5% | 2.7% | −203.1% | −5.6% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 1.2% |
| Operating margin, 3-year average | — | 2.2% | −133.9% | — | — | −1.8% | −0.8% |
| Net margin | 39.1% | 3.9% | −192.1% | −10.5% | 8.3% | 4.3% | 2.2% |
| Cash from operations / revenue | 37.7% | 24.0% | −66.5% | −4.4% | 13.9% | 16.0% | 18.2% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 36.8% | 22.9% | −67.0% | −4.9% | 13.4% | −0.7% | 15.1% |
| Free-cash-flow margin, 3-year average | — | 15.2% | −37.5% | — | — | −0.9% | 16.2% |
| Stock pay / revenue | 0.9% | 8.3% | 111.1% | 0.0% | 7.2% | 10.6% | 9.2% |
| Change in share count | — | 4.6% | 10.4% | 15.0% | −3.8% | 2.7% | 2.2% |
| Line of business | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Underwriting and Management Services | $176M | 81.3% | ▲ 84.9% |
| Claim Services | $31.2M | 14.4% | ▲ 1.2% |
| Technology services | $9.5M | 4.4% | ▲ 21.3% |
From Exzeo Group, Inc.'s 10-K filed February 26, 2026, as tagged in the filing. View filing. Indented rows are part of the line above; their share is of that line. In the bars, the faint bar behind is the year before.
| Manager | Value | Shares | Share of 13F value | Shares QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jupiter Topco LLC | $12.3M | 728K | 11.5% | — |
| American Century Companies Inc | $10.2M | 603K | 9.5% | New |
| Goldman Sachs Group Inc | $9.6M | 571K | 9.0% | ▼ 5.5% |
| Jennison Associates LLC | $9.6M | 569K | 8.9% | ▼ 1.1% |
| Whetstone Capital Advisors, LLC | $9.1M | 542K | 8.5% | ▲ 31.6% |
| Blackrock, Inc. | $7.7M | 458K | 7.2% | ▲ 66.7% |
| Essex Investment Management Co LLC | $4.5M | 269K | 4.2% | ▼ 6.7% |
| Fj Capital Management LLC | $3.8M | 224K | 3.5% | ▼ 67.2% |
| Citadel Advisors LLC | $2.9M | 173K | 2.7% | ▲ 51.8% |
| State Street Corp | $2.5M | 150K | 2.4% | ▲ 171.8% |
| Nuveen, LLC | $2.4M | 145K | 2.3% | ▲ 194.8% |
| Jacobs Levy Equity Management, Inc | $2.4M | 140K | 2.2% | New |
From Form 13F filings with the SEC ( quarterly data sets), as reported by each manager for June 30, 2026 and filed up to 45 days later. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M only, so this is not Exzeo Group, Inc.'s complete shareholder register. Values are as reported by the filers ; 1 inconsistently scaled filing rows were excluded.
| Insider | Date | Trade | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patel Paresh Chief Executive Officer | May 27, 2026 | Buy pre-set plan | 2,000 | $13.67 | $27,340 |
| Patel Paresh Chief Executive Officer | May 26, 2026 | Buy pre-set plan | 2,000 | $13.26 | $26,520 |
| Patel Paresh Chief Executive Officer | May 22, 2026 | Buy pre-set plan | 2,000 | $12.92 | $25,840 |
| Patel Paresh Chief Executive Officer | May 21, 2026 | Buy pre-set plan | 2,000 | $12.82 | $25,640 |
| Patel Paresh Chief Executive Officer | May 20, 2026 | Buy pre-set plan | 2,000 | $13.33 | $26,660 |
| Patel Paresh Chief Executive Officer | May 19, 2026 | Buy pre-set plan | 2,000 | $13.69 | $27,380 |
| Patel Paresh Chief Executive Officer | May 18, 2026 | Buy pre-set plan | 2,000 | $13.93 | $27,860 |
| Patel Paresh Chief Executive Officer | May 15, 2026 | Buy pre-set plan | 1,500 | $13.72 | $20,580 |
| Patel Paresh Chief Executive Officer | May 15, 2026 | Buy pre-set plan | 500 | $13.55 | $6,775 |
| Patel Paresh Chief Executive Officer | May 14, 2026 | Buy pre-set plan | 2,000 | $13.75 | $27,500 |
| Patel Paresh Chief Executive Officer | May 13, 2026 | Buy pre-set plan | 2,000 | $13.55 | $27,100 |
| Patel Paresh Chief Executive Officer | May 12, 2026 | Buy pre-set plan | 2,000 | $13.85 | $27,700 |
From insiders' Form 4 filings with the SEC. Excludes awards, option exercises and shares withheld for tax. "Pre-set plan" means the filing marks the trade as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. See every insider trade since five years ago, on a price chart.
Next expected around October 19, 2026 estimated from the company's past filing pattern, not announced
| Data | Last updated | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | Exchange closing prices | |
| Financial statements | SEC 10-K and 10-Q filings | |
| News and updates | Company releases and SEC 8-K filings | |
| Analyst estimates | Aggregated analyst estimates | |
| Valuation and scores | Our models, from the filed figures |
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