undamentalytics Newsletter
Sign in

Congress: members

Dan Crenshaw

Backtest from 12 Feb 2020 to 2 Nov 2026 · weekly · hypothetical

Watch this strategy
Return a year
+13.2%
S&P 500 +14.4%
Last 12 months
+1.0%
S&P 500 +12.1%
Sharpe ratio
0.50
S&P 500 0.64
Biggest drop
−40.3%
S&P 500 −31.8%
$10.0k$20.0k 2020202120222023202420252026 $24.7k$23.0k
Dan CrenshawS&P 500 $10,000 in Dan Crenshaw from 12 Feb 2020 against the S&P 500 (total return) over the same dates, marked weekly, log scale. Hypothetical: before taxes and trading costs.

About

Mirrors the disclosed stock holdings of Rep. Dan Crenshaw (Republican, TX) and family. It buys on the first trading day after each report is filed, sized by the middle of the value band reported, starts from the holdings listed in the member's annual disclosure report once that report is public, and holds each position until a sale is reported. Call options count as the stock until they expire. Members often report weeks or months late, so this is what a follower could actually have done.

Dan Crenshaw's trades →

Key statistics

MeasureStrategyS&P 500
Return a year (compound)+13.2%+14.4%
Total return+130%+147%
Last 12 months+1.0%+12.1%
Last 3 months−10.8%—
Last month+6.6%—
This year so far−4.1%—
Volatility a year25.1%18.8%
Sharpe ratio0.500.64
Biggest drop−40.3%−31.8%
Beta to the S&P 5001.091.00
Alpha a year (t-statistic)−0.8% (−0.14)—
Share of weeks up52%—

Sharpe ratio uses returns above the 3-month Treasury bill rate. Alpha is the yearly return left after allowing for the strategy's exposure to the S&P 500 (CAPM); a t-statistic below about 2 means it cannot be told apart from luck. 27 reported trades were copied.

Insights

CompanyWeightHeld sinceReturn since
SBUX56.4%12 Feb 2020+35.9%
WYNN43.6%15 Aug 2024+4.8%
PeriodReturn a yearS&P 500SharpeS&P 500Biggest dropBetaAlpha (t)
Whole backtest12 Feb 2020 to 2 Nov 2026+13.2%+14.4%0.500.64−40.3%1.09−0.8% (−0.14)
Last three years3 Nov 2023 to 2 Nov 2026+19.2%+21.8%0.711.16−25.4%1.20−4.0% (−0.48)
Last year7 Nov 2025 to 2 Nov 2026+0.3%+14.2%−0.050.84−21.8%1.28−13.9% (−0.83)
DateCompanyAction
15 Aug 2024WYNNBought
15 Aug 2024METABought
2 Dec 2022WYNNBought
2 Dec 2022METABought
2 Dec 2022AAPLBought
27 Jun 2022SPXCBought
27 Jun 2022KMIBought
27 Jun 2022AMZNBought
11 Jan 2022RIVNBought
26 Aug 2021HTZBought
25 Mar 2021LUVBought
25 Mar 2021BABought
25 Mar 2021AMZNBought
12 Feb 2020SLBBought
12 Feb 2020SBUXBought
12 Feb 2020GOOGLBought

Dated on the first trading day after the report was filed, when a follower could have acted.

DateCompanyAction
17 Jul 2026METASold
17 Jul 2026GOOGLSold
17 Jul 2026AMZNSold
17 Jul 2026AAPLSold
12 May 2025LUVSold
12 May 2025HTZSold
12 May 2025BASold
9 Aug 2023WYNNSold
9 Aug 2023SPXCSold
9 Aug 2023SLBSold
9 Aug 2023METASold
9 Aug 2023KMISold
27 Jun 2022RIVNSold
26 Aug 2021AMZNSold

Dated on the first trading day after the report was filed, when a follower could have acted.

Backtests are hypothetical and use today's listed companies only, which flatters results. Past performance does not predict future returns. This is research, not investment advice. How we backtest