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Congress: members

Joseph D. Morelle

Backtest from 16 May 2019 to 2 Nov 2026 · weekly · hypothetical

Watch this strategy
Return a year
+24.1%
S&P 500 +15.5%
Last 12 months
+2.9%
S&P 500 +12.1%
Sharpe ratio
0.87
S&P 500 0.72
Biggest drop
−36.1%
S&P 500 −31.8%
$10.0k$20.0k$40.0k 20192020202120222023202420252026 $50.1k$29.3k
Joseph D. MorelleS&P 500 $10,000 in Joseph D. Morelle from 16 May 2019 against the S&P 500 (total return) over the same dates, marked weekly, log scale. Hypothetical: before taxes and trading costs.

About

Mirrors the disclosed stock holdings of Rep. Joseph D. Morelle (Democrat, NY) and family. It buys on the first trading day after each report is filed, sized by the middle of the value band reported, starts from the holdings listed in the member's annual disclosure report once that report is public, and holds each position until a sale is reported. Call options count as the stock until they expire. Members often report weeks or months late, so this is what a follower could actually have done.

Joseph D. Morelle's trades →

Key statistics

MeasureStrategyS&P 500
Return a year (compound)+24.1%+15.5%
Total return+401%+193%
Last 12 months+2.9%+12.1%
Last 3 months−10.8%—
Last month+2.9%—
This year so far+1.7%—
Volatility a year25.0%18.2%
Sharpe ratio0.870.72
Biggest drop−36.1%−31.8%
Beta to the S&P 5000.831.00
Alpha a year (t-statistic)+10.8% (1.49)—
Share of weeks up56%—

Sharpe ratio uses returns above the 3-month Treasury bill rate. Alpha is the yearly return left after allowing for the strategy's exposure to the S&P 500 (CAPM); a t-statistic below about 2 means it cannot be told apart from luck. 15 reported trades were copied.

Insights

CompanyWeightHeld sinceReturn since
GE89.8%16 Dec 2022+563.5%
DMRC4.0%16 Dec 2022−56.2%
TRV3.2%16 Dec 2022+133.8%
C1.9%16 Dec 2022+214.8%
BHF1.1%16 Dec 2022−12.5%
PeriodReturn a yearS&P 500SharpeS&P 500Biggest dropBetaAlpha (t)
Whole backtest16 May 2019 to 2 Nov 2026+24.1%+15.5%0.870.72−36.1%0.83+10.8% (1.49)
Last three years3 Nov 2023 to 2 Nov 2026+35.3%+21.8%1.011.16−29.0%1.36+8.2% (0.61)
Last year7 Nov 2025 to 2 Nov 2026+3.8%+14.2%0.150.84−22.5%1.07−6.2% (−0.22)
DateCompanyAction
16 Dec 2022TRVBought
16 Dec 2022GEBought
16 Dec 2022DMRCBought
16 Dec 2022CBought
16 Dec 2022BHFBought
23 Sept 2019AMZNBought
16 May 2019URIBought
16 May 2019UNHBought
16 May 2019PRUBought
16 May 2019PGBought
16 May 2019MSFTBought
16 May 2019METBought
16 May 2019INTCBought
16 May 2019GOOGLBought
16 May 2019FISIBought
16 May 2019DMRCBought
16 May 2019AAPLBought

Dated on the first trading day after the report was filed, when a follower could have acted.

DateCompanyAction
10 Dec 2020URISold
10 Dec 2020UNHSold
10 Dec 2020PRUSold
10 Dec 2020PGSold
10 Dec 2020MSFTSold
10 Dec 2020METSold
10 Dec 2020INTCSold
10 Dec 2020GOOGLSold
10 Dec 2020FISISold
10 Dec 2020AMZNSold
10 Dec 2020AAPLSold
10 Jul 2020DMRCSold

Dated on the first trading day after the report was filed, when a follower could have acted.

Backtests are hypothetical and use today's listed companies only, which flatters results. Past performance does not predict future returns. This is research, not investment advice. How we backtest