undamentalytics Newsletter

Congress: members

Scott H. Peters

Backtest from 29 Jul 2015 to 2 Nov 2026 · weekly · hypothetical

Watch this strategy
Return a year
−2.2%
S&P 500 +13.9%
Last 12 months
+3.9%
S&P 500 +12.1%
Sharpe ratio
−0.06
S&P 500 0.72
Biggest drop
−57.9%
S&P 500 −31.8%
$10.0k$20.0k$40.0k 201520172019202120232025 $43.2k$7.7k
Scott H. PetersS&P 500 $10,000 in Scott H. Peters from 29 Jul 2015 against the S&P 500 (total return) over the same dates, marked weekly, log scale. Hypothetical: before taxes and trading costs.

About

Mirrors the disclosed stock holdings of Rep. Scott H. Peters (Democrat, CA) and family. It buys on the first trading day after each report is filed, sized by the middle of the value band reported, starts from the holdings listed in the member's annual disclosure report once that report is public, and holds each position until a sale is reported. Call options count as the stock until they expire. Members often report weeks or months late, so this is what a follower could actually have done.

Scott H. Peters's trades →

Key statistics

MeasureStrategyS&P 500
Return a year (compound)−2.2%+13.9%
Total return−23%+332%
Last 12 months+3.9%+12.1%
Last 3 months+1.0%—
Last month+0.3%—
This year so far+3.3%—
Volatility a year23.8%16.7%
Sharpe ratio−0.060.72
Biggest drop−57.9%−31.8%
Beta to the S&P 5000.161.00
Alpha a year (t-statistic)−3.4% (−0.48)—
Share of weeks up64%—

Sharpe ratio uses returns above the 3-month Treasury bill rate. Alpha is the yearly return left after allowing for the strategy's exposure to the S&P 500 (CAPM); a t-statistic below about 2 means it cannot be told apart from luck. 301 reported trades were copied.

Insights

No positions at the latest rebalance.

PeriodReturn a yearS&P 500SharpeS&P 500Biggest dropBetaAlpha (t)
Whole backtest29 Jul 2015 to 2 Nov 2026−2.2%+13.9%−0.060.72−57.9%0.16−3.4% (−0.48)
2018 onwards5 Jan 2018 to 2 Nov 2026−5.3%+13.9%−0.180.66−57.9%0.12−6.1% (−0.70)
Last three years3 Nov 2023 to 2 Nov 2026+4.6%+21.8%−0.701.160.0%0.00−0.1% (−1.23)
Last year7 Nov 2025 to 2 Nov 2026+3.9%+14.2%−1.040.840.0%0.00−0.1% (−0.91)
DateCompanyAction
13 Mar 2018WFCBought
13 Mar 2018USBBought
13 Mar 2018TJXBought
13 Mar 2018NEEBought
13 Mar 2018HDBought
13 Mar 2018COFBought
15 May 2017RANDBought
14 Sept 2015NEEBought
17 Aug 2015TMOBought
29 Jul 2015WMBBought
29 Jul 2015WFCBought
29 Jul 2015VZBought
29 Jul 2015VFCBought
29 Jul 2015VBought
29 Jul 2015USBBought
29 Jul 2015UNPBought
29 Jul 2015UNHBought
29 Jul 2015TJXBought
29 Jul 2015SYKBought
29 Jul 2015QCOMBought
29 Jul 2015PRUBought
29 Jul 2015PEPBought
29 Jul 2015ORCLBought
29 Jul 2015OMCBought
29 Jul 2015MSFTBought

Dated on the first trading day after the report was filed, when a follower could have acted.

DateCompanyAction
14 Sept 2020RANDSold
10 May 2018WFCSold
10 May 2018USBSold
10 May 2018TJXSold
10 May 2018NEESold
10 May 2018HDSold
10 May 2018COFSold
15 May 2017NEESold
15 May 2017EOGSold
15 May 2017ADPSold
14 Sept 2015WMBSold
14 Sept 2015WFCSold
14 Sept 2015VZSold
14 Sept 2015VFCSold
14 Sept 2015VSold
14 Sept 2015USBSold
14 Sept 2015UNPSold
14 Sept 2015UNHSold
14 Sept 2015TMOSold
14 Sept 2015TJXSold
14 Sept 2015SYKSold
14 Sept 2015QCOMSold
14 Sept 2015PRUSold
14 Sept 2015PEPSold
14 Sept 2015ORCLSold

Dated on the first trading day after the report was filed, when a follower could have acted.

Backtests are hypothetical and use today's listed companies only, which flatters results. Past performance does not predict future returns. This is research, not investment advice. How we backtest