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Congress: members

William R. Keating

Backtest from 28 Apr 2021 to 2 Nov 2026 · weekly · hypothetical

Watch this strategy
Return a year
+1.9%
S&P 500 +12.9%
Last 12 months
+3.6%
S&P 500 +12.1%
Sharpe ratio
−0.01
S&P 500 0.62
Biggest drop
−24.4%
S&P 500 −23.9%
$10.0k$20.0k 202120222023202420252026 $19.5k$11.1k
William R. KeatingS&P 500 $10,000 in William R. Keating from 28 Apr 2021 against the S&P 500 (total return) over the same dates, marked weekly, log scale. Hypothetical: before taxes and trading costs.

About

Mirrors the disclosed stock holdings of Rep. William R. Keating (Democrat, MA) and family. It buys on the first trading day after each report is filed, sized by the middle of the value band reported, starts from the holdings listed in the member's annual disclosure report once that report is public, and holds each position until a sale is reported. Call options count as the stock until they expire. Members often report weeks or months late, so this is what a follower could actually have done.

William R. Keating's trades →

Key statistics

MeasureStrategyS&P 500
Return a year (compound)+1.9%+12.9%
Total return+11%+95%
Last 12 months+3.6%+12.1%
Last 3 months+3.1%—
Last month+3.1%—
This year so far+5.6%—
Volatility a year18.0%15.7%
Sharpe ratio−0.010.62
Biggest drop−24.4%−23.9%
Beta to the S&P 5000.781.00
Alpha a year (t-statistic)−7.6% (−1.35)—
Share of weeks up51%—

Sharpe ratio uses returns above the 3-month Treasury bill rate. Alpha is the yearly return left after allowing for the strategy's exposure to the S&P 500 (CAPM); a t-statistic below about 2 means it cannot be told apart from luck. 101 reported trades were copied.

Insights

CompanyWeightHeld sinceReturn since
JPM8.3%15 Jul 2026−1.1%
AMZN8.3%23 May 2024+37.4%
MSFT8.3%8 Jun 2023+63.1%
GOOGL7.0%15 Jul 2026−23.6%
PANW3.7%6 Feb 2024+110.7%
ARMK2.8%28 Apr 2021+100.5%
URI2.8%8 Jun 2023+213.3%
MRK2.7%15 Jul 2026+21.0%
KLAC2.5%26 Feb 2025+113.4%
CACI2.4%15 Jul 2026+43.5%
LIN2.4%15 Jul 2026+1.9%
BJ2.3%15 Jul 2026+22.6%
MCK2.3%16 Jun 2023+151.0%
VRTX2.3%6 May 2022+118.1%
J2.3%8 Jun 2023+70.2%
TMO2.3%15 Jul 2026+28.2%
PG2.2%8 Jun 2023+22.9%
MA2.2%8 Jun 2023+83.0%
PNC2.2%15 Jul 2026−7.2%
CDW2.1%15 Jul 2026+15.6%
ICE2.0%8 Jun 2023+62.8%
AMH2.0%6 May 2022−2.0%
PEP1.9%8 Jun 2023−13.4%
ACN1.9%28 Apr 2021−0.7%
MCO1.9%8 Jun 2023+56.3%
NOC1.9%8 Jun 2023+28.6%
QCOM1.9%7 Nov 2024−0.8%
AZO1.8%28 Apr 2021+122.3%
TJX1.8%15 Jul 2026−6.3%
LOW1.8%8 Jun 2023+11.0%
TDG1.7%13 Mar 2024+14.9%
ISRG1.5%15 Jul 2026+13.3%
KKR1.5%15 Jul 2026−2.2%
FISV1.5%15 Jul 2026+2.9%
NOW1.3%15 Jul 2026+3.2%
INTU1.0%8 Jun 2023−13.6%
CSGP0.9%26 Feb 2025−58.2%
UNH0.1%8 Jun 2023−13.0%
PeriodReturn a yearS&P 500SharpeS&P 500Biggest dropBetaAlpha (t)
Whole backtest28 Apr 2021 to 2 Nov 2026+1.9%+12.9%−0.010.62−24.4%0.78−7.6% (−1.35)
Last three years3 Nov 2023 to 2 Nov 2026−1.2%+21.8%−0.231.16−24.4%0.54−12.8% (−1.37)
Last year7 Nov 2025 to 2 Nov 2026+5.2%+14.2%0.150.84−12.3%0.87−6.6% (−0.77)
DateCompanyAction
15 Jul 2026TMOBought
15 Jul 2026TJXBought
15 Jul 2026PNCBought
15 Jul 2026NOWBought
15 Jul 2026MRKBought
15 Jul 2026LINBought
15 Jul 2026KKRBought
15 Jul 2026JPMBought
15 Jul 2026ISRGBought
15 Jul 2026GOOGLBought
15 Jul 2026FISVBought
15 Jul 2026CDWBought
15 Jul 2026CACIBought
15 Jul 2026BJBought
26 Feb 2025KLACBought
26 Feb 2025CSGPBought
7 Nov 2024QCOMBought
7 Nov 2024GOOGLBought
23 May 2024AMZNBought
16 May 2024CVSBought
13 Mar 2024TDGBought
6 Feb 2024PANWBought
1 Aug 2023ISRGBought
20 Jul 2023LINBought
16 Jun 2023MCKBought

Dated on the first trading day after the report was filed, when a follower could have acted.

DateCompanyAction
15 Jul 2026VEEVSold
15 Jul 2026CMCSASold
16 May 2025GOOGLSold
16 May 2025ADBESold
24 Mar 2025BJSold
16 Jan 2025ABNBSold
25 Sept 2024NXPISold
23 May 2024CVSSold
16 May 2024PNCSold
16 May 2024LRCXSold
16 May 2024LINSold
16 May 2024JPMSold
16 May 2024ISRGSold
16 May 2024GOOGLSold
16 Jun 2023CVSSold
8 Jun 2023TJXSold
8 Jun 2023NOWSold
22 Dec 2022BAXSold
22 Nov 2022ADBESold
27 Sept 2022VEEVSold
27 Sept 2022URISold
27 Sept 2022UNHSold
27 Sept 2022ROSTSold
27 Sept 2022PNCSold
27 Sept 2022PGSold

Dated on the first trading day after the report was filed, when a follower could have acted.

Backtests are hypothetical and use today's listed companies only, which flatters results. Past performance does not predict future returns. This is research, not investment advice. How we backtest