undamentalytics Newsletter

Congress: members

Zoe Lofgren

Backtest from 9 Mar 2016 to 2 Nov 2026 · weekly · hypothetical

Watch this strategy
Return a year
+19.8%
S&P 500 +15.2%
Last 12 months
+43.3%
S&P 500 +12.1%
Sharpe ratio
0.77
S&P 500 0.78
Biggest drop
−33.6%
S&P 500 −31.8%
$10.0k$20.0k$40.0k$80.0k 201620182020202220242026 $68.6k$45.1k
Zoe LofgrenS&P 500 $10,000 in Zoe Lofgren from 9 Mar 2016 against the S&P 500 (total return) over the same dates, marked weekly, log scale. Hypothetical: before taxes and trading costs.

About

Mirrors the disclosed stock holdings of Rep. Zoe Lofgren (Democrat, CA) and family. It buys on the first trading day after each report is filed, sized by the middle of the value band reported, starts from the holdings listed in the member's annual disclosure report once that report is public, and holds each position until a sale is reported. Call options count as the stock until they expire. Members often report weeks or months late, so this is what a follower could actually have done.

Zoe Lofgren's trades →

Key statistics

MeasureStrategyS&P 500
Return a year (compound)+19.8%+15.2%
Total return+586%+351%
Last 12 months+43.3%+12.1%
Last 3 months−1.0%—
Last month−7.1%—
This year so far+32.5%—
Volatility a year23.9%16.7%
Sharpe ratio0.770.78
Biggest drop−33.6%−31.8%
Beta to the S&P 5001.081.00
Alpha a year (t-statistic)+4.3% (0.89)—
Share of weeks up58%—

Sharpe ratio uses returns above the 3-month Treasury bill rate. Alpha is the yearly return left after allowing for the strategy's exposure to the S&P 500 (CAPM); a t-statistic below about 2 means it cannot be told apart from luck. 335 reported trades were copied.

Insights

CompanyWeightHeld sinceReturn since
NTAP48.8%12 Aug 2022+175.0%
CFG28.1%12 Aug 2022+94.0%
KEY21.5%12 Aug 2022+37.5%
IP1.1%12 Aug 2022+0.1%
NWL0.5%8 Oct 2021−65.2%
PeriodReturn a yearS&P 500SharpeS&P 500Biggest dropBetaAlpha (t)
Whole backtest9 Mar 2016 to 2 Nov 2026+19.8%+15.2%0.770.78−33.6%1.08+4.3% (0.89)
2018 onwards5 Jan 2018 to 2 Nov 2026+20.9%+13.9%0.800.66−33.6%1.06+6.4% (1.32)
Last three years3 Nov 2023 to 2 Nov 2026+35.7%+21.8%1.101.16−33.6%1.24+9.5% (0.79)
Last year7 Nov 2025 to 2 Nov 2026+45.0%+14.2%1.420.84−13.6%0.89+27.3% (1.16)
DateCompanyAction
12 Oct 2022PWRBought
12 Oct 2022GILDBought
12 Oct 2022BUDBought
12 Oct 2022BDXBought
12 Oct 2022BACBought
12 Aug 2022SONBought
12 Aug 2022SOBought
12 Aug 2022PGBought
12 Aug 2022PAYXBought
12 Aug 2022NTAPBought
12 Aug 2022METBought
12 Aug 2022MCDBought
12 Aug 2022MAABought
12 Aug 2022KEYBought
12 Aug 2022IPBought
12 Aug 2022ETRBought
12 Aug 2022EMRBought
12 Aug 2022DUKBought
12 Aug 2022DBought
12 Aug 2022CINFBought
12 Aug 2022CFGBought
12 Aug 2022CCIBought
11 May 2022UNPBought
11 May 2022KLACBought
4 Nov 2021LCIDBought

Dated on the first trading day after the report was filed, when a follower could have acted.

DateCompanyAction
11 Aug 2023UNPSold
11 Aug 2023KLACSold
7 Jun 2023ZTSSold
7 Jun 2023VZSold
7 Jun 2023VSold
7 Jun 2023UNHSold
7 Jun 2023TTSold
7 Jun 2023TRUSold
7 Jun 2023TMUSSold
7 Jun 2023TMOSold
7 Jun 2023TJXSold
7 Jun 2023TSold
7 Jun 2023SPGISold
7 Jun 2023SONSold
7 Jun 2023SOSold
7 Jun 2023SHWSold
7 Jun 2023SBUXSold
7 Jun 2023ROPSold
7 Jun 2023QCOMSold
7 Jun 2023PWRSold
7 Jun 2023PLDSold
7 Jun 2023PGSold
7 Jun 2023PEPSold
7 Jun 2023PAYXSold
7 Jun 2023ODFLSold

Dated on the first trading day after the report was filed, when a follower could have acted.

Backtests are hypothetical and use today's listed companies only, which flatters results. Past performance does not predict future returns. This is research, not investment advice. How we backtest