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Quiver method A (replicated)

Insider buying: Cluster (distinct insiders), all $300m+

Backtest from 30 Apr 2010 to 2 Nov 2026 · weekly · hypothetical

Watch this strategy
Return a year
+8.8%
S&P 500 +13.8%
Last 12 months
+6.6%
S&P 500 +12.1%
Sharpe ratio
0.40
S&P 500 0.79
Biggest drop
−40.5%
S&P 500 −31.8%
$10.0k$20.0k$40.0k$80.0k 201020122014201620182020202220242026 $85.2k$40.4k
StrategyS&P 500 $10,000 in Insider buying: Cluster (distinct insiders), all $300m+ from 30 Apr 2010 against the S&P 500 (total return) over the same dates, marked weekly, log scale. Hypothetical: before taxes.

About

Each month, buys the companies whose insiders (officers, directors, large holders) made the largest open-market purchases, by the rule in the label, using only Form 4 filings already public at the rebalance. Costs of 10 basis points a trade are deducted.

Insider backtests →

Key statistics

MeasureStrategyS&P 500
Return a year (compound)+8.8%+13.8%
Total return+304%+752%
Last 12 months+6.6%+12.1%
Last 3 months−11.5%—
Last month+6.6%—
This year so far+1.1%—
Volatility a year24.5%16.1%
Sharpe ratio0.400.79
Biggest drop−40.5%−31.8%
Beta to the S&P 5001.101.00
Alpha a year (t-statistic)−4.1% (−0.97)—
Share of weeks up54%—

Sharpe ratio uses returns above the 3-month Treasury bill rate. Alpha is the yearly return left after allowing for the strategy's exposure to the S&P 500 (CAPM); a t-statistic below about 2 means it cannot be told apart from luck.

Insights

CompanyWeightHeld sinceReturn since
AMRZ10.0%——
AVBC10.0%——
CC10.0%——
CODI10.0%——
DKL10.0%——
ELAN10.0%——
ENR10.0%——
FSBC10.0%——
FUL10.0%——
KMPR10.0%——

Equal weight at the latest rebalance, rebuilt every month.

PeriodReturn a yearS&P 500SharpeS&P 500Biggest dropBetaAlpha (t)
Whole backtest30 Apr 2010 to 2 Nov 2026+8.8%+13.8%0.400.79−40.5%1.10−4.1% (−0.97)
2018 onwards5 Jan 2018 to 2 Nov 2026+6.1%+13.9%0.250.66−37.6%1.06−5.7% (−0.87)
Last three years3 Nov 2023 to 2 Nov 2026+5.8%+21.8%0.161.16−23.0%0.77−8.8% (−0.78)
Last year7 Nov 2025 to 2 Nov 2026+8.8%+14.2%0.330.84−17.6%0.35+2.6% (0.14)
DateCompanyAction
30 Oct 2026KMPRBought
30 Oct 2026FULBought
30 Oct 2026DKLBought
30 Sept 2026GBFHBought
30 Sept 2026ENRBought
30 Sept 2026ELANBought
30 Sept 2026CODIBought
30 Sept 2026CCBought
30 Sept 2026AVBCBought
30 Sept 2026AMRZBought
31 Aug 2026XRNBought
31 Aug 2026VITLBought
31 Aug 2026PATKBought
31 Aug 2026NCLHBought
31 Aug 2026MTDRBought
31 Aug 2026GEHCBought
31 Aug 2026FSBCBought
31 Aug 2026FRPTBought
31 Aug 2026FLUTBought
31 Aug 2026FISVBought

Dated at the rebalance that made the change.

DateCompanyAction
30 Oct 2026MTDRSold
30 Oct 2026GBFHSold
30 Oct 2026FISVSold
30 Sept 2026XRNSold
30 Sept 2026VITLSold
30 Sept 2026PATKSold
30 Sept 2026NCLHSold
30 Sept 2026GEHCSold
30 Sept 2026FRPTSold
30 Sept 2026FLUTSold

Dated at the rebalance that made the change.

Backtests are hypothetical and use today's listed companies only, which flatters results. Past performance does not predict future returns. This is research, not investment advice. How we backtest