Where Avidia Bancorp stands after its latest 10-Q
Revenue for the twelve months to June 2026 was $113m.
Source: 10-Q filed August 13, 2026 on SEC EDGAR · Financials · Valuation
Avidia Bancorp, Inc. is a US-listed company in the regional banks industry. Its financial year ends in December.
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~$11
Valuation models combined (4)
Base case. Range ~$6.4–$18. Weighted average of 4 models (residual income, price-to-book vs return on equity (peers), price-to-book vs peers, price-to-earnings vs peers), the residual income counting double.
No Buy/Hold/Sell rating is issued: limited reported history: available models are shown without a Buy/Hold/Sell rating.
Avidia Bancorp, Inc. valuation: adjust assumptions and compare models →
What company insiders, investment funds and members of Congress have been doing with the stock, from their own filings.
Revenue for the twelve months to June 2026 was $113m.
Source: 10-Q filed August 13, 2026 on SEC EDGAR · Financials · Valuation
Written from the company's filings and our models when each quarter's report arrives. Figures in older notes are as published at the time. Not investment advice.
Avidia Bancorp, Inc.'s trailing-twelve-month revenue grew 20.3% year on year, with a free-cash-flow margin of 42.7%.
Current signal Net margin expanding: TTM net margin reached 15.6%, up 17.8pp year over year.
Assembled from SEC-filed figures — the full workings are on this page and in our methodology. Observations, not recommendations.
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Company announcements, filed results and changes that matter to shareholders.
We value Avidia Bancorp, Inc. as a bank or lender, with every model that fits that kind of business. Cost of equity 8.5%: the 10-year Treasury yield (4.9%) plus a beta of 0.78 times a 4.5% equity risk premium.
| Model | Value per share | In the combined value? |
|---|---|---|
| Residual income Book value plus the present value of returns above the cost of equity, fading over ten years. | ~$6.4 ~$3.7–$11 | Primary model, counts double |
| Justified price-to-book Book value times (return on equity - growth) / (cost of equity - growth): steady-state returns. | — | Does not apply: return on equity below long-run growth |
| Price-to-book vs return on equity (peers) The price-to-book that peers with this return on equity trade on, from a line fitted across peers. | ~$18 ~$7.3–$28 | Included |
| Price-to-book vs peers Book value per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) price-to-book. | ~$16 ~$20–$30 | Included |
| Price-to-earnings vs peers Earnings per share times peers' typical (harmonic-mean) price-to-earnings. | ~$8.5 ~$9.7–$13 | Included |
| Dividend discount (two-stage) Dividends for five years at the growth the business can fund, then a steady payout and growth. | — | Does not apply: pays no regular dividend |
| Combined value Weighted average of the models that apply: the primary model (residual income) counts double. Models more than 5x or less than 0.2x the share price, or more than 3x away from the other models' median, are left out. | ~$11 ~$6.4–$18 | 4 models |
Different models fail in different ways, so where several apply we average them rather than trust one. Peer-based models compare Avidia Bancorp, Inc. with banks and lenders in our coverage, using third-party market data. Model values are estimates under stated assumptions, updated as new filings arrive; not price targets or investment advice. How each model works.
Not assessed: fewer than five years of comparable figures in the filings. AI disruption exposure for this industry: Medium.
Next results: November 11, 2026, after the close. Analysts expect revenue of $30m and EPS of $0.35 (range $0.35 to $0.35) for the quarter.
| Fiscal year | EPS | Growth | Revenue | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | $1.53 | +850% | $120m | — |
| Next | $1.51 | −1% | $126m | +5% |
Next year's EPS estimate has moved +2.4% in 90 days, across 2 analysts.
The consensus EPS forecast for the current fiscal year is +6.3% on 90 days ago. In the last 30 days, 1 analyst raised Avidia Bancorp, Inc.'s forecast and 0 cut it.
Average of analysts' published estimates (third-party data).
| Period | Current fiscal year | Next fiscal year |
|---|---|---|
| 90 days ago | $1.44 | $1.48 |
| 60 days ago | $1.44 | $1.48 |
| 30 days ago | $1.44 | $1.48 |
| 7 days ago | $1.44 | $1.51 |
| Now | $1.53 | $1.51 |
| Quarter to | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sept 2026 | $0.38 | $0.47 | +23.7% |
| Jun 2026 | $0.34 | $0.39 | +14.7% |
| Mar 2026 | $0.30 | $0.32 | +6.7% |
| Dec 2025 | $0.30 | $0.30 | −1.4% |
Adjusted EPS as companies report it, against the average analyst estimate.
| Calendar year | 2026 to date |
|---|---|
| Return | |
| AVBC | +42% |
| Industry peers (median) | +24% |
| S&P 500 | +11% |
| Months that ended higher | |
| AVBC | 73% |
| S&P 500 | 46% |
| Largest fall from a high during the year | |
| AVBC | −12% |
| S&P 500 | −9% |
Worst fall since August 1, 2025: 12% from April 20, 2026 to May 28, 2026. Getting back needed a 14% gain, reached on July 1, 2026, 34 days after the low.
| Results released | Next day | S&P 500 next day | 5 days | 21 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 23, 2026 | +3.0% | +0.2% | +5.1% | — |
| July 27, 2026 | +3.9% | +0.3% | −1.1% | +2.1% |
| April 27, 2026 | +4.0% | −0.3% | +1.2% | −5.5% |
| February 2, 2026 | +6.0% | −0.4% | +6.3% | +4.0% |
| October 27, 2025 | +1.1% | +1.4% | +3.8% | +6.3% |
| August 4, 2025 | −1.2% | +1.0% | −1.1% | +3.1% |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 29, 2026.
| Period | Revenue (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY24 Q4 | $90.3M |
| FY25 Q1 | $89.7M |
| FY25 Q2 | $93.8M |
| FY25 Q3 | $99M |
| FY25 Q4 | $103.6M |
| FY26 Q1 | $108.9M |
| FY26 Q2 | $112.9M |
Source: SEC EDGAR filings. Retrieved October 29, 2026.
| Period | FCF margin (TTM) |
|---|---|
| FY24 Q4 | 22.7% |
| FY25 Q1 | 17.3% |
| FY25 Q2 | 14.5% |
| FY25 Q3 | 35.6% |
| FY25 Q4 | 23.3% |
| FY26 Q1 | 32.8% |
| FY26 Q2 | 42.7% |
| Fiscal year | 2024 Dec 2024 | 2025 Dec 2025 | LTM Jun 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Income | |||
| Revenue | 90 | 104 | 113 |
| Net income | 11 | −3 | 18 |
| Diluted EPS | — | −$0.18 | — |
| Growth (year on year) | |||
| Revenue | — | +14.7% | +20.3% |
| Net income | — | −128.6% | — |
| Margins | |||
| Net margin | 12.7% | −3.2% | 15.6% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 22.7% | 23.3% | 42.7% |
| Cash flow | |||
| Cash from operations | 23 | 28 | 51 |
| Capital spending | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| Free cash flow | 20 | 24 | 48 |
| Balance sheet | |||
| Total debt | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Diluted shares | — | 19m | — |
| Quarter | 2024 Q3 Sept 2024 | 2024 Q4 Dec 2024 | 2025 Q1 Mar 2025 | 2025 Q2 Jun 2025 | 2025 Q3 Sept 2025 | 2025 Q4 Dec 2025 | 2026 Q1 Mar 2026 | 2026 Q2 Jun 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | ||||||||
| Revenue | 23 | 22 | 23 | 26 | 28 | 27 | 28 | 30 |
| Net income | 2 | 4 | −12 | 4 | −1 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Diluted EPS | — | — | — | — | −$0.05 | $0.29 | $0.32 | $0.39 |
| Growth (year on year) | ||||||||
| Revenue | — | — | −2.3% | +18.9% | +22.6% | +20.5% | +23.2% | +15.5% |
| Net income | — | — | −426.9% | +64.7% | −143.6% | +52.0% | — | +85.2% |
| Margins | ||||||||
| Net margin | 9.1% | 15.8% | −50.5% | 15.0% | −3.2% | 19.9% | 21.2% | 24.0% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 7.2% | 86.2% | −16.9% | −12.8% | 83.2% | 29.9% | 27.3% | 30.8% |
| Cash flow | ||||||||
| Cash from operations | 3 | 20 | −2 | −2 | 24 | 9 | 8 | 10 |
| Capital spending | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Free cash flow | 2 | 19 | −4 | −3 | 23 | 8 | 8 | 9 |
| Last 12 months unless stated | AVBC | PLBC | MYFW | CZFS | WTBA | ISTR | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $113m | $113m | $111m | $118m | $107m | $120m | $255m |
| Revenue growth, last 12 months | 20.3% | 33.5% | 15.9% | 12.5% | 15.8% | 30.5% | 12.6% |
| Revenue growth, 3-year average | — | 13.0% | 4.9% | 12.2% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 6.0% |
| Revenue growth, latest quarter | 15.5% | 40.0% | 17.0% | 8.8% | 16.4% | 65.2% | 10.8% |
| Net margin | 15.6% | 31.7% | 19.2% | 34.8% | 37.9% | 28.1% | 28.7% |
| Cash from operations / revenue | 45.5% | 29.3% | 21.1% | 31.8% | 50.9% | 22.5% | 34.3% |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 42.7% | 28.1% | 18.1% | 31.2% | 49.7% | 19.1% | 31.4% |
| Free-cash-flow margin, 3-year average | — | 30.3% | 13.6% | 33.2% | 31.4% | 17.5% | 29.9% |
| Stock pay / revenue | — | 0.4% | 1.7% | — | 2.7% | 1.7% | 1.2% |
| Change in share count | — | 17.5% | 1.0% | −0.3% | 0.8% | 36.1% | 0.4% |
| Manager | Value | Shares | Share of 13F value | Shares QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Rowe Price Investment Management, Inc. | $24.6M | 1.2M | 16.6% | ▼ 2.1% |
| Blackrock, Inc. | $24.2M | 1.2M | 16.3% | ▲ 316.5% |
| Vanguard Capital Management LLC | $16.8M | 801K | 11.3% | ▼ 2.6% |
| Fj Capital Management LLC | $10.4M | 497K | 7.0% | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management, LLC | $9.3M | 443K | 6.3% | ▲ 101.3% |
| State Street Corp | $5.3M | 251K | 3.6% | ▲ 299.4% |
| Two Sigma Investments, LP | $5.2M | 247K | 3.5% | ▲ 17.1% |
| Hennessy Advisors Inc | $3.3M | 157K | 2.2% | ▲ 1.3% |
| Morgan Stanley | $3.1M | 149K | 2.1% | ▲ 20.3% |
| Marshall Wace, LLP | $3.1M | 146K | 2.1% | ▲ 44.8% |
| Northern Trust Corp | $3M | 144K | 2.0% | ▲ 257.9% |
| Vanguard Fiduciary Trust Co | $2.6M | 125K | 1.8% | ▲ 7.2% |
From Form 13F filings with the SEC ( quarterly data sets), as reported by each manager for June 30, 2026 and filed up to 45 days later. 13F reports cover long US-listed positions of managers above $100M only, so this is not Avidia Bancorp, Inc.'s complete shareholder register. Values are as reported by the filers .
From insiders' Form 4 filings with the SEC. Excludes awards, option exercises and shares withheld for tax. "Pre-set plan" means the filing marks the trade as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. See every insider trade since five years ago, on a price chart.
Next expected around February 1, 2027 estimated from the company's past filing pattern, not announced
| Data | Last updated | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | Exchange closing prices | |
| Financial statements | SEC 10-K and 10-Q filings | |
| News and updates | Company releases and SEC 8-K filings | |
| Analyst estimates | Aggregated analyst estimates | |
| Valuation and scores | Our models, from the filed figures |
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